arXiv subjects

Patricia T. Campbell

Publications and source records attributed to Patricia T. Campbell.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Modelling sexual partnership dynamics and population heterogeneities in agent-based dynamic network models

Population-level heterogeneities, combined with temporal fluctuations in sexual partnerships, shape the structure of sexual contact networks and can substantially influence the spread of sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Traditional static network models, which assume fixed attributes of partnerships, such as count and duration, may not adequately capture the effects of partnerships on STI transmission. In contrast, agent-based dynamic network models offer a flexible framework for incorporating individual and population-level heterogeneities. We developed an agent-based dynamic network model in which partnership formation and dissolution probabilities, stratified by age, sex, and sexual orientation (including bisexual individuals), govern the formation of monogamous and concurrent partnerships and their dissolution via a duration-dependent hazard. Partnership statistics from the National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (NATSAL-3) were used as model calibration targets, and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) was used to generate candidate parameter combinations. Parameter estimation was performed by selecting the combination that produced the lowest Mean Squared Error (MSE) between the model outputs and the calibration targets. Our study addresses three questions: (1) how well can the observed characteristics of sexual partnerships in NATSAL-3 be reproduced using an agent-based model; (2) how does concurrency shape the structure of dynamic sexual contact networks; and (3) how do concurrent partnerships affect the dynamics of STI transmission. In this study, we find that interactions between individual characteristics such as age, sex, and sexual orientation, and partnership attributes such as count, duration, and concurrency play a critical role in shaping the population-level sexual contact network and, in turn, the dynamics of STI transmission.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Global and local epidemiology of Group A Streptococcus indicates that naturally-acquired immunity is enduring and strain-specific

The bacterium Group A Streptococcus (Streptococcus pyogenes, GAS) is a human-specific pathogen and a major cause of global morbidity and mortality. Despite decades of research our knowledge of GAS infection and immunity is incomplete, hampering vaccine design and other efforts to reduce disease prevalence. Epidemiological studies indicate positive associations between the prevalence of GAS-related disease, the diversity of circulating strains and the degree of poverty in host populations. However, the infection and immune mechanisms underlying these associations are not clear. In this work, we use an agent-based model to demonstrate that observed diversity and prevalence are best accounted for by the hypothesis that GAS infection confers enduring strain-specific immunity, with reduced or absent cross-protection against infection by other strains. Our results suggest that the success of GAS vaccines will depend on their ability to elicit long-lasting cross-protective immunity over multiple strain types.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

From climate change to pandemics: decision science can help scientists have impact

Scientific knowledge and advances are a cornerstone of modern society. They improve our understanding of the world we live in and help us navigate global challenges including emerging infectious diseases, climate change and the biodiversity crisis. For any scientist, whether they work primarily in fundamental knowledge generation or in the applied sciences, it is important to understand how science fits into a decision-making framework. Decision science is a field that aims to pinpoint evidence-based management strategies. It provides a framework for scientists to directly impact decisions or to understand how their work will fit into a decision process. Decision science is more than undertaking targeted and relevant scientific research or providing tools to assist policy makers; it is an approach to problem formulation, bringing together mathematical modelling, stakeholder values and logistical constraints to support decision making. In this paper we describe decision science, its use in different contexts, and highlight current gaps in methodology and application. The COVID-19 pandemic has thrust mathematical models into the public spotlight, but it is one of innumerable examples in which modelling informs decision making. Other examples include models of storm systems (eg. cyclones, hurricanes) and climate change. Although the decision timescale in these examples differs enormously (from hours to decades), the underlying decision science approach is common across all problems. Bridging communication gaps between different groups is one of the greatest challenges for scientists. However, by better understanding and engaging with the decision-making processes, scientists will have greater impact and make stronger contributions to important societal problems.

cs.CY↗