arXiv subjects

Patricio Cubillos

Publications and source records attributed to Patricio Cubillos.

15 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Kinetic and photochemical disequilibrium in the potentially carbon-rich atmosphere of the warm-Jupiter WASP-69b

High-resolution transmission spectroscopy of the warm gas-giant WASP-69b has revealed the presence of H2O, CO, CH4, NH3, and C2H2 in its atmosphere. This study investigates the impact of vertical diffusion and photochemistry on its atmospheric composition, with a focus on the detected species plus HCN and CO2, to constrain the atmospheric C/O ratio. We utilize non-equilibrium gas-phase simulations to conduct a parameter study for vertical diffusion strength, local gas temperature, and C/O ratio. Our results indicate that a carbon-rich atmosphere enhances CH4 and C2H2 concentrations, while NH3 undergoes chemical conversion into HCN in carbon-rich, high-temperature environments. Consequently, HCN is abundantly produced in such atmospheres, though its strong spectral features remain undetected in WASP-69b. Photochemical production of HCN and C2H2 is highly sensitive to vertical diffusion strength, with weaker diffusion resulting in higher concentrations. Cross-correlation of synthetic spectra with observed data shows that models with C/O=2 best match observations, but models with C/O=0.55 and 0.9 lead to statistically equivalent fits, leaving the C/O ratio unconstrained. We highlight the importance of accurately modeling NH3 quenching at pressures greater than 100 bars. Models for WASP-69b capped at 100 bars bias cross-correlation fits towards carbon-rich values. We suggest that if the atmosphere of WASP-69b is indeed carbon-rich with a solar metallicity, future observations should reveal the presence of HCN.

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arXiv2024

Discovery of two warm mini-Neptunes with contrasting densities orbiting the young K3V star TOI-815

We present the discovery and characterization of two warm mini-Neptunes transiting the K3V star TOI-815 in a K-M binary system. Analysis of the spectra and rotation period reveal it to be a young star with an age of $200^{+400}_{-200}$Myr. TOI-815b has a 11.2-day period and a radius of 2.94$\pm$0.05$\it{R_{\rm\mathrm{\oplus}}}$ with transits observed by TESS, CHEOPS, ASTEP, and LCOGT. The outer planet, TOI-815c, has a radius of 2.62$\pm$0.10$\it{R_{\rm\mathrm{\oplus}}}$, based on observations of three non-consecutive transits with TESS, while targeted CHEOPS photometry and radial velocity follow-up with ESPRESSO were required to confirm the 35-day period. ESPRESSO confirmed the planetary nature of both planets and measured masses of 7.6$\pm$1.5 $\it{M_{\rm \mathrm{\oplus}}}$ ($ρ_\mathrm{P}$=1.64$^{+0.33}_{-0.31}$gcm$^{-3}$) and 23.5$\pm$2.4$\it{M_{\rm\mathrm{\oplus}}}$ ($ρ_\mathrm{P}$=7.2$^{+1.1}_{-1.0}$gcm$^{-3}$) respectively. Thus, the planets have very different masses, unlike the usual similarity of masses in compact multi-planet systems. Moreover, our statistical analysis of mini-Neptunes orbiting FGK stars suggests that weakly irradiated planets tend to have higher bulk densities compared to those suffering strong irradiation. This could be ascribed to their cooler atmospheres, which are more compressed and denser. Internal structure modeling of TOI-815b suggests it likely has a H-He atmosphere constituting a few percent of the total planet mass, or higher if the planet is assumed to have no water. In contrast, the measured mass and radius of TOI-815c can be explained without invoking any atmosphere, challenging planetary formation theories. Finally, we infer from our measurements that the star is viewed close to pole-on, which implies a spin-orbit misalignment at the 3$σ$ level.

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arXiv2019

Close-in sub-Neptunes reveal the past rotation history of their host stars: atmospheric evolution of planets in the HD3167 and K2-32 planetary systems

Planet atmospheric escape induced by high-energy stellar irradiation is a key phenomenon shaping the structure and evolution of planetary atmospheres. Therefore, the present-day properties of a planetary atmosphere are intimately connected with the amount of stellar flux received by a planet during its lifetime, thus with the evolutionary path of its host star. Using a recently developed analytic approximation based on hydrodynamic simulations for atmospheric escape rates, we track within a Bayesian framework the evolution of a planet as a function of stellar flux evolution history, constrained by the measured planetary radius, with the other system parameters as priors. We find that the ideal objects for this type of study are close-in sub-Neptune-like planets, as they are highly affected by atmospheric escape, and yet retain a significant fraction of their primordial hydrogen-dominated atmospheres. Furthermore, we apply this analysis to the HD3167 and K2-32 planetary systems. For HD3167, we find that the most probable irradiation level at 150 Myr was between 40 and 130 times solar, corresponding to a rotation period of 1.78^{+2.69}_{-1.23} days. For K2-32, we find a surprisingly low irradiation level ranging between half and four times solar at 150 Myr. Finally, we show that for multi-planet systems, our framework enables one to constrain poorly known properties of individual planets.

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arXiv2019

Toward More Reliable Analytic Thermochemical-equilibrium Abundances

Heng & Tsai (2016) developed an analytic framework to obtain thermochemical-equilibrium abundances for H$_{2}$O, CO, CO$_2$, CH$_4$, C$_{2}$H$_{2}$, C$_{2}$H$_{4}$, HCN, NH$_3$, and N$_2$ for a system with known temperature, pressure, and elemental abundances (hydrogen, carbon, nitrogen, and oxygen). However, the implementation of their approach can become numerically unstable under certain circumstances, leading to inaccurate solutions (e.g., ${\rm C/O} \ge 1$ atmospheres at low pressures). Building up on their approach, we identified the conditions that prompt inaccurate solutions, and developed a new framework to avoid them, providing a reliable implementation for arbitrary values of temperature (200 to $\sim$2000 K), pressure ($10^{-8}$ to $10^{3}$ bar), and CNO abundances ($10^{-3}$ to $\sim 10^{2}\times$ solar elemental abundances), for hydrogen-dominated atmospheres. The accuracy our analytic framework is better than 10% for the more abundant species that have mixing fractions larger than $10^{-10}$, whereas the accuracy is better than 50% for the less abundant species. Additionally, we added the equilibrium-abundance calculation of atomic and molecular hydrogen into the system, and explored the physical limitations of this approach. Efficient and reliable tools, such as this one, are highly valuable for atmospheric Bayesian studies, which need to evaluate a large number of models. We implemented our analytic framework into the \textsc{rate} Python open-source package, available at https://github.com/pcubillos/rate .

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arXiv2018

A grid of upper atmosphere models for 1--40 MEARTH planets: application to CoRoT-7 b and HD219134 b,c

There is growing observational and theoretical evidence suggesting that atmospheric escape is a key driver of planetary evolution. Commonly, planetary evolution models employ simple analytic formulae (e.g., energy limited escape) that are often inaccurate, and more detailed physical models of atmospheric loss usually only give snapshots of an atmosphere's structure and are difficult to use for evolutionary studies. To overcome this problem, we upgrade and employ an already existing upper atmosphere hydrodynamic code to produce a large grid of about 7000 models covering planets with masses 1 - 39 Earth mass with hydrogen-dominated atmospheres and orbiting late-type stars. The modeled planets have equilibrium temperatures ranging between 300 and 2000 K. For each considered stellar mass, we account for three different values of the high-energy stellar flux (i.e., low, moderate, and high activity). For each computed model, we derive the atmospheric temperature, number density, bulk velocity, X-ray and EUV (XUV) volume heating rates, and abundance of the considered species as a function of distance from the planetary center. From these quantities, we estimate the positions of the maximum dissociation and ionisation, the mass-loss rate, and the effective radius of the XUV absorption. We show that our results are in good agreement with previously published studies employing similar codes. We further present an interpolation routine capable to extract the modelling output parameters for any planet lying within the grid boundaries. We use the grid to identify the connection between the system parameters and the resulting atmospheric properties. We finally apply the grid and the interpolation routine to estimate atmospheric evolutionary tracks for the close-in, high-density planets CoRoT-7 b and HD219134 b,c...

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arXiv2017

Aerosol Constraints on the Atmosphere of the Hot Saturn-mass planet WASP-49b

The strong, nearly wavelength-independent absorption cross section of aerosols produces featureless exoplanet transmission spectra, limiting our ability to characterize their atmospheres. Here we show that even in the presence of featureless spectra, we can still characterize certain atmospheric properties. Specifically, we constrain the upper and lower pressure boundaries of aerosol layers, and present plausible composition candidates. We study the case of the bloated Saturn-mass planet WASP-49b, where near-infrared observations reveal a flat transmission spectrum between 0.7 and 1.0 {\microns}. First, we use a hydrodynamic upper-atmosphere code to estimate the pressure reached by the ionizing stellar high-energy photons at $10^{-8}$ bar, setting the upper pressure boundary where aerosols could exist. Then, we combine HELIOS and Pyrat Bay radiative-transfer models to constrain the temperature and photospheric pressure of atmospheric aerosols, in a Bayesian framework. For WASP-49b, we constrain the transmission photosphere (hence, the aerosol deck boundaries) to pressures above $10^{-5}$ bar (100$\times$ solar metallicity), $10^{-4}$ bar (solar), and $10^{-3}$ bar (0.1$\times$ solar) as lower boundary, and below $10^{-7}$ bar as upper boundary. Lastly, we compare condensation curves of aerosol compounds with the planet's pressure-temperature profile to identify plausible condensates responsible for the absorption. Under these circumstances, we find as candidates: Na$_{2}$S (at 100$\times$ solar metallicity); Cr and MnS (at solar and 0.1$\times$ solar); and forsterite, enstatite, and alabandite (at 0.1$\times$ solar).

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arXiv2017

An Algorithm to Compress Line-transition Data for Radiative-transfer Calculations

Molecular line-transition lists are an essential ingredient for radiative-transfer calculations. With recent databases now surpassing the billion-lines mark, handling them has become computationally prohibitive, due to both the required processing power and memory. Here I present a temperature-dependent algorithm to separate strong from weak line transitions, reformatting the large majority of the weaker lines into a cross-section data file, and retaining the detailed line-by-line information of the fewer strong lines. For any given molecule over the 0.3--30 {\micron} range, this algorithm reduces the number of lines to a few million, enabling faster radiative-transfer computations without a significant loss of information. The final compression rate depends on how densely populated is the spectrum. I validate this algorithm by comparing Exomol's HCN extinction-coefficient spectra between the complete (65 million line transitions) and compressed (7.7 million) line lists. Over the 0.6--33 {\micron} range, the average difference between extinction-coefficient values is less than 1\%. A Python/C implementation of this algorithm is open-source and available at https://github.com/pcubillos/repack . So far, this code handles the Exomol and HITRAN line-transition format.

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arXiv2016

An Overabundance of Low-density Neptune-like Planets

We present a uniform analysis of the atmospheric escape rate of Neptune-like planets with estimated radius and mass (restricted to $M_{\rm p}<30\,M_{\oplus}$). For each planet we compute the restricted Jeans escape parameter, $Λ$, for a hydrogen atom evaluated at the planetary mass, radius, and equilibrium temperature. Values of $Λ\lesssim20$ suggest extremely high mass-loss rates. We identify 27 planets (out of 167) that are simultaneously consistent with hydrogen-dominated atmospheres and are expected to exhibit extreme mass-loss rates. We further estimate the mass-loss rates ($L_{\rm hy}$) of these planets with tailored atmospheric hydrodynamic models. We compare $L_{\rm hy}$ to the energy-limited (maximum-possible high-energy driven) mass-loss rates. We confirm that 25 planets (15\% of the sample) exhibit extremely high mass-loss rates ($L_{\rm hy}>0.1\,M_{\oplus}{\rm Gyr}^{-1}$), well in excess of the energy-limited mass-loss rates. This constitutes a contradiction, since the hydrogen envelopes cannot be retained given the high mass-loss rates. We hypothesize that these planets are not truly under such high mass-loss rates. Instead, either hydrodynamic models overestimate the mass-loss rates, transit-timing-variation measurements underestimate the planetary masses, optical transit observations overestimate the planetary radii (due to high-altitude clouds), or Neptunes have consistently higher albedos than Jupiter planets. We conclude that at least one of these established estimations/techniques is consistently producing biased values for Neptune planets. Such an important fraction of exoplanets with misinterpreted parameters can significantly bias our view of populations studies, like the observed mass--radius distribution of exoplanets for example.

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arXiv2016

On Correlated-noise Analyses Applied To Exoplanet Light Curves

Time-correlated noise is a significant source of uncertainty when modeling exoplanet light-curve data. A correct assessment of correlated noise is fundamental to determine the true statistical significance of our findings. Here we review three of the most widely used correlated-noise estimators in the exoplanet field, the time-averaging, residual-permutation, and wavelet-likelihood methods. We argue that the residual-permutation method is unsound in estimating the uncertainty of parameter estimates. We thus recommend to refrain from this method altogether. We characterize the behavior of the time averaging's rms-vs.-bin-size curves at bin sizes similar to the total observation duration, which may lead to underestimated uncertainties. For the wavelet-likelihood method, we note errors in the published equations and provide a list of corrections. We further assess the performance of these techniques by injecting and retrieving eclipse signals into synthetic and real Spitzer light curves, analyzing the results in terms of the relative-accuracy and coverage-fraction statistics. Both the time-averaging and wavelet-likelihood methods significantly improve the estimate of the eclipse depth over a white-noise analysis (a Markov-chain Monte Carlo exploration assuming uncorrelated noise). However, the corrections are not perfect, when retrieving the eclipse depth from Spitzer datasets, these methods covered the true (injected) depth within the 68\% credible region in only $\sim$45--65\% of the trials. Lastly, we present our open-source model-fitting tool, Multi-Core Markov-Chain Monte Carlo ({MC$^3$}). This package uses Bayesian statistics to estimate the best-fitting values and the credible regions for the parameters for a (user-provided) model. {MC$^3$} is a Python/C code, available at https://github.com/pcubillos/MCcubed.

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arXiv2014

Angular Momentum Exchange by Gravitational Torques and Infall in the Circumbinary Disk of the Protostellar System L1551 NE

We report the ALMA observation of the Class I binary protostellar system L1551 NE in the 0.9-mm continuum, C18O (3-2), and 13CO (3-2) lines at a ~1.6 times higher resolution and a ~6 times higher sensitivity than those of our previous SMA observations, which revealed a r ~300 AU-scale circumbinary disk in Keplerian rotation. The 0.9-mm continuum shows two opposing U-shaped brightenings in the circumbinary disk, and exhibits a depression between the circumbinary disk and the circumstellar disk of the primary protostar. The molecular lines trace non-axisymmetric deviations from Keplerian rotation in the circumbinary disk at higher velocities relative to the systemic velocity, where our previous SMA observations could not detect the lines. In addition, we detect inward motion along the minor axis of the circumbinary disk. To explain the newly-observed features, we performed a numerical simulation of gas orbits in a Roche potential tailored to the inferred properties of L1551 NE. The observed U-shaped dust features coincide with locations where gravitational torques from the central binary system are predicted to impart angular momentum to the circumbinary disk, producing shocks and hence density enhancements seen as a pair of spiral arms. The observed inward gas motion coincides with locations where angular momentum is predicted to be lowered by the gravitational torques. The good agreement between our observation and model indicates that gravitational torques from the binary stars constitute the primary driver for exchanging angular momentum so as to permit infall through the circumbinary disk of L1551 NE.

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arXiv2013

Thermal Emission of WASP-14b Revealed with Three Spitzer Eclipses

Exoplanet WASP-14b is a highly irradiated, transiting hot Jupiter. Joshi et al. calculate an equilibrium temperature Teq of 1866 K for zero albedo and reemission from the entire planet, a mass of 7.3 +/- 0.5 Jupiter masses and a radius of 1.28 +/- 0.08 Jupiter radii. Its mean density of 4.6 g/cm3 is one of the highest known for planets with periods less than 3 days. We obtained three secondary eclipse light curves with the Spitzer Space Telescope. The eclipse depths from the best jointly fit model are $0.224\%$ +/- $0.018\%$ at 4.5 μm and $0.181\%$ +/- $0.022\%$ at 8.0 μm. The corresponding brightness temperatures are 2212 +/- 94 K and 1590 +/- 116 K. A slight ambiguity between systematic models suggests a conservative 3.6 μm eclipse depth of $0.19\%$ +/- $0.01\%$ and brightness temperature of 2242 +/- 55 K. Although extremely irradiated, WASP-14b does not show any distinct evidence of a thermal inversion. In addition, the present data nominally favor models with day night energy redistribution less than $~30\%$. The current data are generally consistent with oxygen-rich as well as carbon-rich compositions, although an oxygen-rich composition provides a marginally better fit. We confirm a significant eccentricity of e = 0.087 +/- 0.002 and refine other orbital parameters.

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arXiv2013

WASP-8b: Characterization of a Cool and Eccentric Exoplanet with Spitzer

WASP-8b has 2.18 times Jupiter's mass and is on an eccentric ($e=0.31$) 8.16-day orbit. With a time-averaged equilibrium temperature of 948 K, it is one of the least-irradiated hot Jupiters observed with the Spitzer Space Telescope. We have analyzed six photometric light curves of WASP-8b during secondary eclipse observed in the 3.6, 4.5, and 8.0 {\microns} Infrared Array Camera bands. The eclipse depths are $0.113\pm 0.018$%, $0.069\pm 0.007$%, and $0.093\pm 0.023$%, respectively, giving respective brightness temperatures of 1552, 1131, and 938 K. We characterized the atmospheric thermal profile and composition of the planet using a line-by-line radiative transfer code and a Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampler. The data indicated no thermal inversion, independently of any assumption about chemical composition. We noted an anomalously high 3.6-{\microns} brightness temperature (1552 K); by modeling the eccentricity-caused thermal variation, we found that this temperature is plausible for radiative time scales less than $\sim 10^{2}$ hours. However, as no model spectra fit all three data points well, the temperature discrepancy remains as an open question.

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arXiv2012

Two nearby sub-Earth-sized exoplanet candidates in the GJ 436 system

We report the detection of UCF-1.01, a strong exoplanet candidate with a radius 0.66 +/- 0.04 times that of Earth (R_{\oplus}). This sub-Earth-sized planet transits the nearby M-dwarf star GJ 436 with a period of 1.365862 +/- 8x10^{-6} days. We also report evidence of a 0.65 +/- 0.06 R_{\oplus} exoplanet candidate (labeled UCF-1.02) orbiting the same star with an undetermined period. Using the Spitzer Space Telescope, we measure the dimming of light as the planets pass in front of their parent star to assess their sizes and orbital parameters. If confirmed, UCF-1.01 and UCF-1.02 would be called GJ 436c and GJ 436d, respectively, and would be part of the first multiple-transiting-planet system outside of the Kepler field. Assuming Earth-like densities of 5.515 g/cm^3, we predict both candidates to have similar masses (~0.28 Earth-masses, M_{\oplus}, 2.6 Mars-masses) and surface gravities of ~0.65 g (where g is the gravity on Earth). UCF-1.01's equilibrium temperature (T_{eq}, where emitted and absorbed radiation balance for an equivalent blackbody) is 860 K, making the planet unlikely to harbor life as on Earth. Its weak gravitational field and close proximity to its host star imply that UCF-1.01 is unlikely to have retained its original atmosphere; however, a transient atmosphere is possible if recent impacts or tidal heating were to supply volatiles to the surface. We also present additional observations of GJ 436b during secondary eclipse. The 3.6-micron light curve shows indications of stellar activity, making a reliable secondary eclipse measurement impossible. A second non-detection at 4.5 microns supports our previous work in which we find a methane-deficient and carbon monoxide-rich dayside atmosphere.

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arXiv2012

Transit and Eclipse Analyses of Exoplanet HD 149026b Using BLISS Mapping

The dayside of HD 149026b is near the edge of detectability by the Spitzer Space Telescope. We report on eleven secondary-eclipse events at 3.6, 4.5, 3 x 5.8, 4 x 8.0, and 2 x 16 microns plus three primary-transit events at 8.0 microns. The eclipse depths from jointly-fit models at each wavelength are 0.040 +/- 0.003% at 3.6 microns, 0.034 +/- 0.006% at 4.5 microns, 0.044 +/- 0.010% at 5.8 microns, 0.052 +/- 0.006% at 8.0 microns, and 0.085 +/- 0.032% at 16 microns. Multiple observations at the longer wavelengths improved eclipse-depth signal-to-noise ratios by up to a factor of two and improved estimates of the planet-to-star radius ratio (Rp/Rs = 0.0518 +/- 0.0006). We also identify no significant deviations from a circular orbit and, using this model, report an improved period of 2.8758916 +/- 0.0000014 days. Chemical-equilibrium models find no indication of a temperature inversion in the dayside atmosphere of HD 149026b. Our best-fit model favors large amounts of CO and CO2, moderate heat redistribution (f=0.5), and a strongly enhanced metallicity. These analyses use BiLinearly-Interpolated Subpixel Sensitivity (BLISS) mapping, a new technique to model two position-dependent systematics (intrapixel variability and pixelation) by mapping the pixel surface at high resolution. BLISS mapping outperforms previous methods in both speed and goodness of fit. We also present an orthogonalization technique for linearly-correlated parameters that accelerates the convergence of Markov chains that employ the Metropolis random walk sampler. The electronic supplement contains light-curve files and supplementary figures.

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arXiv2011

Spitzer Secondary Eclipses of WASP-18b

The transiting exoplanet WASP-18b was discovered in 2008 by the Wide Angle Search for Planets (WASP) project. The Spitzer Exoplanet Target of Opportunity Program observed secondary eclipses of WASP-18b using Spitzer's Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) in the 3.6 micron and 5.8 micron bands on 2008 December 20, and in the 4.5 micron and 8.0 micron bands on 2008 December 24. We report eclipse depths of 0.30 +/- 0.02%, 0.39 +/- 0.02%, 0.37 +/- 0.03%, 0.41 +/- 0.02%, and brightness temperatures of 3100 +/- 90, 3310 +/- 130, 3080 +/- 140 and 3120 +/- 110 K in order of increasing wavelength. WASP-18b is one of the hottest planets yet discovered - as hot as an M-class star. The planet's pressure-temperature profile most likely features a thermal inversion. The observations also require WASP-18b to have near-zero albedo and almost no redistribution of energy from the day-side to the night side of the planet.

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