arXiv subjects

Patrick H. O'Callaghan

Publications and source records attributed to Patrick H. O'Callaghan.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2021

Second-order Inductive Inference: an axiomatic approach

Consider a predictor who ranks eventualities on the basis of past cases: for instance a search engine ranking webpages given past searches. Resampling past cases leads to different rankings and the extraction of deeper information. Yet a rich database, with sufficiently diverse rankings, is often beyond reach. Inexperience demands either "on the fly" learning-by-doing or prudence: the arrival of a novel case does not force (i) a revision of current rankings, (ii) dogmatism towards new rankings, or (iii) intransitivity. For this higher-order framework of inductive inference, we derive a suitably unique numerical representation of these rankings via a matrix on eventualities x cases and describe a robust test of prudence. Applications include: the success/failure of startups; the veracity of fake news; and novel conditions for the existence of a yield curve that is robustly arbitrage-free.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2019

Minimal conditions for parametric continuity of a utility representation

Dependence on the parameter is continuous when perturbations of the parameter preserves strict preference for one alternative over another. We characterise this property via a utility function over alternatives that depends continuously on the parameter. The class of parameter spaces where such a representation is guaranteed to exist is also identified. When the parameter is the type or belief of a player, these results have implications for Bayesian and psychological games. When alternatives are discrete, the representation is jointly continuous and an extension of Berge's theorem of the maximum yields a continuous value function. We apply this result to generalise a standard consumer choice problem where parameters are price-wealth vectors. When the parameter space is lexicographically ordered, a novel application to reference-dependent preferences is possible.

cs.GT↗