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Patrick M. Reed

Publications and source records attributed to Patrick M. Reed.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

A Multiobjective Reinforcement Learning Framework for Microgrid Energy Management

The emergence of microgrids (MGs) has provided a promising solution for decarbonizing and decentralizing the power grid, mitigating the challenges posed by climate change. However, MG operations often involve considering multiple objectives that represent the interests of different stakeholders, leading to potentially complex conflicts. To tackle this issue, we propose a novel multi-objective reinforcement learning framework that explores the high-dimensional objective space and uncovers the tradeoffs between conflicting objectives. This framework leverages exogenous information and capitalizes on the data-driven nature of reinforcement learning, enabling the training of a parametric policy without the need for long-term forecasts or knowledge of the underlying uncertainty distribution. The trained policies exhibit diverse, adaptive, and coordinative behaviors with the added benefit of providing interpretable insights on the dynamics of their information use. We employ this framework on the Cornell University MG (CU-MG), which is a combined heat and power MG, to evaluate its effectiveness. The results demonstrate performance improvements in all objectives considered compared to the status quo operations and offer more flexibility in navigating complex operational tradeoffs.

eess.SY

Early systems change necessary for catalyzing long-term sustainability in a post-2030 agenda

Progress to-date towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has fallen short of expectations and is unlikely to fully meet 2030 targets. Despite the little chance of imminent success, past assessments have mostly focused on short- and medium-term evaluations, limiting the ability to explore the longer-term effects of systemic interactions with time lags and delay. Here we undertake global systems modelling with a longer-term view than previous assessments to explore the drivers of sustainability progress and how they could emerge by 2030, 2050, and 2100 under different development pathways and towards quantitative targets. We find that early planning for systems change to shift from business-as-usual to more sustainable pathways is important for accelerating progress towards increasingly ambitious targets by 2030, 2050, and 2100. These findings indicate the importance of adopting longer-term timeframes and pathways to ensure that the necessary pre-conditions are in place for sustainability beyond the current 2030 Agenda.

econ.GN

Deep uncertainties in sea-level rise and storm surge projections: Implications for coastal flood risk management

Sea-levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the trade-offs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture trade-offs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multi-objective trade-offs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and which could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies.

stat.AP