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Patrick Tamburo

Publications and source records attributed to Patrick Tamburo.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Conspicuous Gas, Cryptic Dust: Spectroscopy and Chromaticity of Complex Periodic Variables

Complex periodic variables (CPVs) are young low-mass stars whose light curves show periodic dips indicative of transiting corotating material. The origin and composition of this material are unclear. Here we present new optical and near-infrared spectroscopy and photometry of four CPVs from Magellan, Keck, Hale, MuSCAT1, MuSCAT2, Tierras, KeplerCam, and TESS. The spectra imply that CPVs host magnetically bound circumstellar plasma clumps, on the basis of sinusoidal-in-time Balmer emission out of transit, and Balmer dimming during transit. Yet large night-to-night changes in circumstellar hydrogen emissivity occur without clear changes in light curve morphology, suggesting that the sharp flux dips are caused not by circumstellar plasma but by dust. Optical chromaticities (depth proportional to $\lambda^{-\beta}$, with $\beta$ = 0.79 $\pm$ 0.16) support this, but the power law breaks in the near-infrared, where a single power law under-predicts the depths observed at 2.1 microns. We therefore favor dips caused by dusty plasma clumps with opaque cores and optically thin halos, though we cannot rule out models in which the dust properties vary per-star or per-epoch. Observations at wavelengths greater than 2 microns and less than 0.4 microns would test this interpretation and clarify the dust's origin.

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arXiv2026

Observing a 542-day transiting giant with large TTVs: The 2025 transit of HIP 41378 f and new constraints on the outer system

Characterizing long-period transiting exoplanets is inherently challenging due to the rarity and long duration of transit events. Yet, these systems provide unique insights into planetary formation, migration, the detection of exomoons, and primordial atmospheres by occupying a sparsely populated region of the exoplanet parameter space. The complexity increases further for long-period planets near mean-motion resonances, where transit timing variations (TTVs) can reach amplitudes of several hours to days. We present a coordinated space- and ground-based observing campaign, using photometry from NEOSSat, multiple LCOGT sites, MuSCAT, MuSCAT3, Tierras and NGTS, to capture the 19-hour transit of the long-period giant exoplanet HIP 41378 f ($P$ = 542 d, $R$ = 9.5 $R_{\oplus}$) on 31 October 2025. Our transit analysis constrains the time of inferior conjunction to $T_{\mathrm{C}} = 2460980.888 \pm 0.029~\mathrm{BJD_{TDB}}$, occurring $\sim 7$ hours earlier than predicted from its linear ephemeris. This significant offset is consistent with the previously reported TTVs of HIP 41378 f, making it the longest-period exoplanet known to exhibit measurable TTVs. By combining this new precise measurement to the transit timings of the two outer planets in the system (HIP 41378 d and HIP 41378 e), we perform a dynamical modeling of the system, using the N-body integrator TRADES, refine the ephemeris of HIP 41378 f, and predict future transit events for all three outer transiting planets.

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arXiv2026

A Minute-Cadence Deep Bulge Survey: First Data Release of DREAMS

The DECam Rogue Earths and Mars Survey (DREAMS), a NOIRLab survey program, has been conducting a three-year survey covering a 5 deg$^2$ area in the Galactic bulge (roughly spanning $-1.2^\circ \lesssim \ell \lesssim +2.1^\circ$ and $-2.8^\circ \lesssim b \lesssim -0.6^\circ$) since 2025 June. Its primary science goal is to detect low-mass free-floating planets through microlensing, while its minute-level cadence ($20-40\,\mathrm{hr}^{-1}$ in $z$ band and $4-8\,\mathrm{hr}^{-1}$ in $r$ band) also enables the detection and characterization of rapid phenomena on timescales of minutes to hours such as stellar flares and pulsating stars. The survey reaches a single-exposure depth of $z_{\rm AB}\sim 22$ mag, about two magnitudes deeper than previous bulge time-domain surveys. We present the data reduction and calibration of the DREAMS observations obtained in 2025 and introduce the first DREAMS data release (DR1). DR1 includes 1,856 $z$-band observations and 325 $r$-band observations for 59,372,789 stars. The DREAMS DR1 catalog contains about twice as many stars as previous catalog covering the same 5 deg$^2$ area. We present DREAMS light curves for a known blue large-amplitude pulsator (BLAP) and a known low-amplitude transiting system to demonstrate the survey's capabilities. We also perform a pilot search for short-duration variables over about 0.4% of the DR1 sample, identifying one new short microlensing event, two stellar flares, and 24 new short variables. This suggests that DREAMS DR1 may contain hundreds of stellar flares and thousands of previously unknown short variables.

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arXiv2026

RV and TTV Measurements of Two Transiting Long-Period Giants around TOI-4600

TOI-4600b and c, originally identified by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) and reported by I. Mireles et al. (2023), are a rare pair of transiting long-period giant planets ($\rm P_b=82.7$ days, $\rm P_c=482.8$ days) orbiting an early K dwarf. In this work, we refine the orbital parameters of the TOI-4600 system by combining new TESS photometry, ground-based transit follow-up, and radial velocity (RV) observations from MAROON-X. We obtain improved constraints on planetary masses and eccentricities, and update other parameters, such as the stellar age. For TOI-4600b, we measure a mass of $M_p = 74.7^{+4.7}_{-4.4}\,M_{\oplus}$ and an eccentricity of $e=0.153^{+0.020}_{-0.018}$, and $M_p = 212.53^{+13.26}_{-13.03}\,M_{\oplus}$ and $e=0.219^{+0.015}_{-0.018}$ for TOI-4600c. We find significant transit timing variations (TTV) in both planets, with semi-amplitudes of approximately $1$\,hr. We derive Transit Spectroscopy Metric values of 16.87 for TOI-4600b and 10.09 for TOI-4600c, indicating that both planets are promising JWST targets for studying the atmospheres of temperate and cold Jupiters, a relatively poorly characterized sample thus far. These updated parameters and TTV ephemerides are important for planning and interpreting future photometric, spectroscopic, and dynamical studies of the TOI-4600 system.

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arXiv2026

KMT-2025-BLG-1616Lb: First Microlensing Bound Planet From DREAMS

We present observations and analysis of the bound planetary microlensing event KMT-2025-BLG-1616. The planetary signal was captured by the Korea Microlensing Telescope Network (KMTNet) and the DECam Rogue Earths and Mars Survey (DREAMS). DREAMS's minute-cadence observations break the central/resonant degeneracy in the binary-lens models. The color of the faint source star ($I=22$) is measured from the DREAMS's $r - z$ color. The planetary system has a planet-host mass ratio of $q \sim 5 \times 10^{-4}$. A Bayesian analysis yields a host-star mass of $\sim 0.3\,M_\odot$, a planetary mass of $\sim 40\,M_{\oplus}$, a projected planet-host separation of $\sim 1.6~\mathrm{au}$, and a lens distance of $\sim 7.5~\mathrm{kpc}$. Based on the photometric precision achieved by DREAMS for this event, we simulate free-floating planet (FFP) detections and find that DREAMS is sensitive to Mars-mass FFPs in the Galactic bulge and Moon-mass FFPs in the Galactic disk.

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arXiv2025

THYME XIII: Two young Neptunes orbiting a 75-Myr star in the Alpha Persei Cluster

Young planets with mass measurements are particularly valuable in studying atmospheric mass-loss processes, but these planets are rare and their masses difficult to measure due to stellar activity. We report the discovery of a planetary system around TOI-6109, a young, 75 Myr-old Sun-like star in the Alpha Persei cluster. It hosts at least two transiting Neptune-like planets. Using three TESS sectors, 30 CHEOPS orbits, and photometric follow-up observations from the ground, we confirm the signals of the two planets. TOI-6109 b has an orbital period of P=$5.6904^{+0.0004}_{-0.0004}$ days and a radius of R=$4.87^{+0.16}_{-0.12}$ R$_\oplus$. The outer planet, TOI-6109 c has an orbital period of P=$8.5388^{+0.0006}_{-0.0005}$ days and a radius of R=$4.83^{+0.07}_{-0.06}$ R$_\oplus$. These planets orbit just outside a 3:2 mean motion resonance. The near-resonant configuration presents the opportunity to measure the planet's mass via TTV measurements and to bypass difficult RV measurements. Measuring the masses of the planets in this system will allow us to test theoretical models of atmospheric mass loss.

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arXiv2025

The Polar Orbit of TOI-2374 b, a Planet in the Neptunian Ridge

The ``Neptunian ridge'' is a recently identified peak in the frequency of planets with sizes between that of Neptune and Saturn orbiting their host stars with periods between 3 and 6 days (A. Castro-Gonz\'alez et al. 2024). These planets may have formed similarly to their larger, hot Jupiter counterparts in the ``three-day pile-up'', through a dynamically excited migration pathway. The distribution of stellar obliquities in hot Neptune systems may therefore provide a vital clue as to their origin. We report a new stellar obliquity measurement for TOI-2374\,b, a planet in the Neptunian ridge ($P = 4.31$ days, $R_p = 7.5 R_\oplus$). We observed a spectroscopic transit of TOI-2374 b with the Keck Planet Finder, detecting the Rossiter-McLaughlin (RM) anomaly with an amplitude of 3 m/s, and measured a sky-projected obliquity of $\lambda = {81^\circ}^{+23^\circ}_{-22^\circ}$, indicating an orbit significantly misaligned with the spin axis of its host star. A reloaded RM analysis of the cross-correlation functions confirms this misalignment, measuring $\lambda = {65^\circ}^{+32^\circ}_{-24^\circ}$. Additionally, we measured a stellar rotation period of $P_\mathrm{rot} = 26.4^{+0.9}_{-0.8}$ days with photometry from the Tierras observatory, allowing us to deduce the three-dimensional stellar obliquity of $\psi = {85.9^\circ}^{+8.6^\circ}_{-9.2^\circ}$. TOI-2374 b joins a growing number of hot Neptunes on polar orbits. The high frequency of misaligned orbits for Neptunian ridge and desert planets, compared with their longer period counterparts, is reminiscent of patterns seen for the giant planets and may suggest a similar formation mechanism.

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arXiv2025

A Ground-Based Transit Observation of the Long-Period Extremely Low-Density Planet HIP 41378 f

We present a ground-based transit detection of HIP 41378 f, a long-period ($P = 542$ days), extremely low-density ($0.09 \pm 0.02$ g cm$^{-3}$) giant exoplanet in a dynamically complex system. Using photometry from Tierras, TRAPPIST-North, and multiple LCOGT sites, we constrain the transit center time to $T_{C,6} = 2460438.891 \pm 0.052$ BJD TDB. This marks only the second ground-based detection of HIP 41378 f, currently the longest-period and longest-duration transiting exoplanet observed from the ground. We use this new detection, along with a recently published transit time from Rossiter-McLaughlin observations, to update the TTV solution for HIP 41378 f. We predict the next two transits will occur at $T_{C,7} = 2460980.793^{+0.098}_{-0.129}$ BJD TDB (2025 November 1) and $T_{C,8} = 2461522.653^{+0.213}_{-0.238}$ BJD TDB (2027 April 27). Incorporating new TESS Sector 88 data, we also rule out the 101-day orbital period alias for HIP 41378 d, and find that the remaining viable solutions are centered on the 278, 371, and 1113-day aliases. The latter two imply dynamical configurations that challenge the canonical view of planet e as the dominant perturber of planet f. Our results suggest that HIP 41378 d may instead play the leading role in shaping the TTV of HIP 41378 f.

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arXiv2025

Spot-Crossing Variations Confirm a Misaligned Orbit for a Planet Transiting an M Dwarf

TOI-3884~b is an unusual 6.4~R$_\oplus$ planet orbiting an M4 host, whose transits display large and persistent spot-crossing events. We used the \textit{Tierras} Observatory to monitor both the long-term photometric variability of TOI-3884 and changes in the spot-crossing events across multiple transits of the planet. We show that the star rotates with a period of $11.020 \pm 0.015$~days. We simultaneously model the rotational modulation of the star and variations in transit shapes that arise due to rotation of the spot, allowing us to determine the true stellar obliquity, $\psi_\star$. The data are best described by a planet on a misaligned orbit around a highly inclined star ($\psi_\star = {77.4^\circ} ^{+2.3^\circ}_{-2.5^\circ}$; $i_\star = {22.3^\circ}^{+1.8^\circ}_{-1.6^\circ}$) that hosts a large polar starspot ($r_\mathrm{spot} = {31.2^\circ}^{+2.4^\circ}_{-1.9^\circ}$; $\lambda_\mathrm{spot} = {80.5^\circ}\pm1.2^\circ$). Archival photometry from the Zwicky Transient Facility suggests that this polar spot has persisted on TOI-3884 for at least seven years. The TOI-3884 system provides a benchmark for studying the evolution of a polar spot on an M dwarf.

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arXiv2025

The True Stellar Obliquity of a Sub-Saturn Planet from the Tierras Observatory and KPF

We measure the true obliquity of TOI-2364, a K dwarf with a sub-Saturn-mass ($M_p = 0.18\,M_J$) transiting planet on the upper edge of the hot Neptune desert. We used new Rossiter-McLaughlin observations gathered with the Keck Planet Finder to measure the sky-projected obliquity $\lambda = 7$$^\circ$$^{+10^\circ}_{-11^\circ}$. Combined with a stellar rotation period of $23.47\pm0.29$ days measured with photometry from the Tierras Observatory, this yields a stellar inclination of $90^{\circ} \pm 13^{\circ}$ and a true obliquity $\psi = 15.6$$^\circ$$^{+7.7^\circ}_{-7.3^\circ}$, indicating that the planet's orbit is well aligned with the rotation axis of its host star. The determination of $\psi$ is important for investigating a potential bimodality in the orbits of short-period sub-Saturns around cool stars, which tend to be either aligned with or perpendicular to their host stars' spin axes.

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arXiv2024

Multiple Patchy Cloud Layers in the Planetary Mass Object SIMP0136+0933

Multi-wavelength photometry of brown dwarfs and planetary-mass objects provides insight into their atmospheres and cloud layers. We present near-simultaneous $J-$ and $K_s-$band multi-wavelength observations of the highly variable T2.5 planetary-mass object, SIMP J013656.5+093347. We reanalyze observations acquired over a single night in 2015 using a recently developed data reduction pipeline. For the first time, we detect a phase shift between $J-$ and $K_s-$band light curves, which we measure to be $39.9^{\circ +3.6}_{ -1.1}$. Previously, phase shifts between near-infrared and mid-infrared observations of this object were detected and attributed to probing different depths of the atmosphere, and thus different cloud layers. Using the Sonora Bobcat models, we expand on this idea to show that at least two different patchy cloud layers must be present to explain the measured phase shift. Our results are generally consistent with recent atmospheric retrievals of this object and other similar L/T transition objects.

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arXiv2023

Potential Atmospheric Compositions of TRAPPIST-1 c constrained by JWST/MIRI Observations at 15 $μ$m

The first JWST observations of TRAPPIST-1 c showed a secondary eclipse depth of 421+/-94 ppm at 15 um, which is consistent with a bare rock surface or a thin, O2-dominated, low CO2 atmosphere (Zieba et al. 2023). Here, we further explore potential atmospheres for TRAPPIST-1 c by comparing the observed secondary eclipse depth to synthetic spectra of a broader range of plausible environments. To self-consistently incorporate the impact of photochemistry and atmospheric composition on atmospheric thermal structure and predicted eclipse depth, we use a two-column climate model coupled to a photochemical model, and simulate O2-dominated, Venus-like, and steam atmospheres. We find that a broader suite of plausible atmospheric compositions are also consistent with the data. For lower pressure atmospheres (0.1 bar), our O2-CO2 atmospheres produce eclipse depths within 1$σ$ of the data, consistent with the modeling results of Zieba et al. (2023). However, for higher-pressure atmospheres, our models produce different temperature-pressure profiles and are less pessimistic, with 1-10 bar O2, 100 ppm CO2 models within 2.0-2.2$σ$ of the measured secondary eclipse depth, and up to 0.5% CO2 within 2.9$σ$. Venus-like atmospheres are still unlikely. For thin O2 atmospheres of 0.1 bar with a low abundance of CO2 ($\sim$100 ppm), up to 10% water vapor can be present and still provide an eclipse depth within 1$σ$ of the data. We compared the TRAPPIST-1 c data to modeled steam atmospheres of $\leq$ 3 bar, which are 1.7-1.8$σ$ from the data and not conclusively ruled out. More data will be required to discriminate between possible atmospheres, or to more definitively support the bare rock hypothesis.

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arXiv2023

No thick carbon dioxide atmosphere on the rocky exoplanet TRAPPIST-1 c

Seven rocky planets orbit the nearby dwarf star TRAPPIST-1, providing a unique opportunity to search for atmospheres on small planets outside the Solar System (Gillon et al., 2017). Thanks to the recent launch of JWST, possible atmospheric constituents such as carbon dioxide (CO2) are now detectable (Morley et al., 2017, Lincowski et al., 2018}. Recent JWST observations of the innermost planet TRAPPIST-1 b showed that it is most probably a bare rock without any CO2 in its atmosphere (Greene et al., 2023). Here we report the detection of thermal emission from the dayside of TRAPPIST-1 c with the Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) on JWST at 15 micron. We measure a planet-to-star flux ratio of fp/fs = 421 +/- 94 parts per million (ppm) which corresponds to an inferred dayside brightness temperature of 380 +/- 31 K. This high dayside temperature disfavours a thick, CO2-rich atmosphere on the planet. The data rule out cloud-free O2/CO2 mixtures with surface pressures ranging from 10 bar (with 10 ppm CO2) to 0.1 bar (pure CO2). A Venus-analogue atmosphere with sulfuric acid clouds is also disfavoured at 2.6 sigma confidence. Thinner atmospheres or bare-rock surfaces are consistent with our measured planet-to-star flux ratio. The absence of a thick, CO2-rich atmosphere on TRAPPIST-1 c suggests a relatively volatile-poor formation history, with less than 9.5 +7.5 -2.3 Earth oceans of water. If all planets in the system formed in the same way, this would indicate a limited reservoir of volatiles for the potentially habitable planets in the system.

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arXiv2023

Predicting the Yield of Small Transiting Exoplanets around Mid-M and Ultra-Cool Dwarfs in the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey

We simulate the yield of small (0.5-4.0 R$_\oplus$) transiting exoplanets around single mid-M and ultra-cool dwarfs (UCDs) in the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey. We consider multiple approaches for simulating M3-T9 sources within the survey fields, including scaling local space densities and using Galactic stellar population synthesis models. These approaches independently predict $\sim$100,000 single mid-M dwarfs and UCDs brighter than a Roman F146 magnitude of 21 that are within the survey fields. Assuming planet occurrence statistics previously measured for early-to-mid M dwarfs, we predict that the survey will discover 1347$^{+208}_{-124}$ small transiting planets around these sources, each to a significance of 7.1$σ$ or greater. Significant departures from this prediction would test whether the occurrence rates of small planets increase or decrease around mid-M dwarfs and UCDs compared to early-M dwarfs. We predict the detection of 13$^{+4}_{-3}$ habitable, terrestrial planets ($R_p<$1.23 R$_\oplus$) in the survey. However, atmospheric characterization of these planets will be challenging with current or near-future space telescope facilities due to the faintness of the host stars. Nevertheless, accurate statistics for the occurrence of small planets around mid-M dwarfs and UCDs will enable direct tests of predictions from planet formation theories and will determine our understanding of planet demographics around the objects at the bottom of the main sequence. This understanding is critical given the prevalence of such objects in our Galaxy, whose planets may therefore comprise the bulk of the galactic census of exoplanets.

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arXiv2022

The Perkins INfrared Exosatellite Survey (PINES) II. Transit Candidates and Implications for Planet Occurrence around L and T Dwarfs

We describe a new transit detection algorithm designed to detect single transit events in discontinuous Perkins INfrared Exosatellite Survey (PINES) observations of L and T dwarfs. We use this algorithm to search for transits in 131 PINES light curves and identify two transit candidates: 2MASS J18212815+1414010 (2MASS J1821+1414) and 2MASS J08350622+1953050 (2MASS J0835+1953). We disfavor 2MASS J1821+1414 as a genuine transit candidate due to the known variability properties of the source. We cannot rule out the planetary nature of 2MASS J0835+1953's candidate event and perform follow-up observations in an attempt to recover a second transit. A repeat event has yet to be observed, but these observations suggest that target variability is an unlikely cause of the candidate transit. We perform a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation of the light curve and estimate a planet radius ranging from $4.2^{+3.5}_{-1.6}R_\oplus$ to $5.8^{+4.8}_{-2.1}R_\oplus$, depending on the host's age. Finally, we perform an injection and recovery simulation on our light curve sample. We inject planets into our data using measured M dwarf planet occurrence rates and attempt to recover them using our transit search algorithm. Our detection rates suggest that, assuming M dwarf planet occurrence rates, we should have roughly a 1$\%$ chance of detecting a candidate that could cause the transit depth we observe for 2MASS J0835+1953. If 2MASS J0835+1953 b is confirmed, it would suggest an enhancement in the occurrence of short-period planets around L and T dwarfs in comparison to M dwarfs, which would challenge predictions from planet formation models.

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arXiv2022

The Perkins INfrared Exosatellite Survey (PINES) I. Survey Overview, Reduction Pipeline, and Early Results

We describe the Perkins INfrared Exosatellite Survey (PINES), a near-infrared photometric search for short-period transiting planets and moons around a sample of 393 spectroscopically confirmed L- and T-type dwarfs. PINES is performed with Boston University's 1.8 m Perkins Telescope Observatory, located on Anderson Mesa, Arizona. We discuss the observational strategy of the survey, which was designed to optimize the number of expected transit detections, and describe custom automated observing procedures for performing PINES observations. We detail the steps of the $\texttt{PINES Analysis Toolkit}$ ($\texttt{PAT}$), software that is used to create light curves from PINES images. We assess the impact of second-order extinction due to changing precipitable water vapor on our observations and find that the magnitude of this effect is minimized in Mauna Kea Observatories $\textit{J}$-band. We demonstrate the validity of $\texttt{PAT}$ through the recovery of a transit of WASP-2 b and known variable brown dwarfs, and use it to identify a new variable L/T transition object: the T2 dwarf WISE J045746.08-020719.2. We report on the measured photometric precision of the survey and use it to estimate our transit detection sensitivity. We find that for our median brightness targets, assuming contributions from white noise only, we are sensitive to the detection of 2.5 $R_\oplus$ planets and larger. PINES will test whether the increase in sub-Neptune-sized planet occurrence with decreasing host mass continues into the L and T dwarf regime.

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arXiv2020

An Unusual Transmission Spectrum for the Sub-Saturn KELT-11b Suggestive of a Sub-Solar Water Abundance

We present an optical-to-infrared transmission spectrum of the inflated sub-Saturn KELT-11b measured with the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Wide Field Camera 3 G141 spectroscopic grism, and the Spitzer Space Telescope (Spitzer) at 3.6 $μ$m, in addition to a Spitzer 4.5 $μ$m secondary eclipse. The precise HST transmission spectrum notably reveals a low-amplitude water feature with an unusual shape. Based on free retrieval analyses with varying molecular abundances, we find strong evidence for water absorption. Depending on model assumptions, we also find tentative evidence for other absorbers (HCN, TiO, and AlO). The retrieved water abundance is generally $\lesssim 0.1\times$ solar (0.001--0.7$\times$ solar over a range of model assumptions), several orders of magnitude lower than expected from planet formation models based on the solar system metallicity trend. We also consider chemical equilibrium and self-consistent 1D radiative-convective equilibrium model fits and find they too prefer low metallicities ($[M/H] \lesssim -2$, consistent with the free retrieval results). However, all the retrievals should be interpreted with some caution since they either require additional absorbers that are far out of chemical equilibrium to explain the shape of the spectrum or are simply poor fits to the data. Finally, we find the Spitzer secondary eclipse is indicative of full heat redistribution from KELT-11b's dayside to nightside, assuming a clear dayside. These potentially unusual results for KELT-11b's composition are suggestive of new challenges on the horizon for atmosphere and formation models in the face of increasingly precise measurements of exoplanet spectra.

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arXiv2019

Design Considerations for a Ground-Based Search for Transiting Planets around L and T Dwarfs

We present design considerations for a ground-based survey for transiting exoplanets around L and T dwarfs, spectral classes that have yet to be thoroughly probed for planets. We simulate photometry for L and T targets with a variety of red-optical and near-infrared detectors, and compare the scatter in the photometry to anticipated transit depths. Based on these results, we recommend the use of a low-dark-current detector with H-band NIR photometric capabilities. We then investigate the potential for performing a survey for Earth-sized planets for a variety of telescope sizes. We simulate planetary systems around a set of spectroscopically confirmed L and T dwarfs using measured M dwarf planet occurrence rates from $\textit{Kepler}$, and simulate their observation in surveys ranging in duration from 120 to 600 nights, randomly discarding 30% of nights to simulate weather losses. We find that an efficient survey design uses a 2-meter-class telescope with a NIR instrument and 360-480 observing nights, observing multiple L and T targets each night with a dithering strategy. Surveys conducted in such a manner have over an 80% chance of detecting at least one planet, and detect around 2 planets, on average. The number of expected detections depends on the true planet occurrence rate, however, which may in fact be higher for L and T dwarfs than for M dwarfs.

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