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Patrick Wells

Publications and source records attributed to Patrick Wells.

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TDCOSMO XXXI: New techniques in line-of-sight studies of time delay lenses

The distribution of matter along the same line of sight but external to the main lens, quantified by $\kappa_\mathrm{ext}$, is a key source of uncertainty in time delay cosmography and other applications of strong lensing, and must be independently estimated to avoid biasing the inferred value of the Hubble constant ($H_0$). We present advancements and standardisations in the weighted number counts techniques used to constrain $\kappa_\mathrm{ext}$, in particular the use of the Euclid Flagship Simulation and a breakdown of the line-of-sight contributions between the observer, lens and source. As part of the TDCOSMO 2026 milestone analysis, we apply this updated method to the sample of 11 time delay lenses used in that study. Our estimates for certain systems are sensitive to these methodological changes, but are nonetheless consistent within $1\sigma$ for all but one of the systems which had been studied previously, with the median $\kappa_\mathrm{ext}$ across those systems changing from $-0.002$ to $-0.006$ following this new analysis. This work represents the first estimate of $\kappa_\mathrm{ext}$ values which includes the contribution of the observer-lens and lens-source terms, and largest standardised analysis of time delay lens environments to date.

astro-ph.CO

Investigating The Effects of Early Dark Energy on Large-scale Structure Within the EDENS Suite

Early Dark Energy (EDE) models have been suggested as a possible solution to the so-called Hubble Tension, a discrepancy of the measurement of the Hubble constant at early and late times. In this paper, we investigate the effects of EDE on large-scale structure probes of cosmology via the EDENS (Early Dark Energy N-body Simulations) suite. The EDENS suite extends the reach of available EDE simulations considerably by adding volume and resolution. We derive several key metrics, such as the halo mass function, the nonlinear power spectrum, and the concentration-mass relation. Furthermore, we implement a halo occupation distribution model to populate the simulations with synthetic galaxies. This allows us to measure the galaxy-galaxy correlation function and galaxy bias. We choose an EDE model that is consistent with observations across several probes and allows for the increase of the present day value of the Hubble constant to resolve the Hubble tension. This model adds three more parameters to the standard $\Lambda$CDM model. Additionally, it requires small shifts in the best-fit $\Lambda$CDM cosmological parameters to accommodate existing observational constraints. We find significant differences between the standard $\Lambda$CDM model and the EDE model, suggesting that some of our chosen metrics may allow us to distinguish EDE from $\Lambda$CDM, and future observations should help further constrain possible cosmological models. We release outputs from our simulations via the OpenCosmo data portal.

astro-ph.CO

TDCOSMO 2025: Cosmological constraints from strong lensing time delays

We present cosmological constraints from 8 strongly lensed quasars (hereafter, the TDCOSMO-2025 sample). Building on previous work, our analysis incorporated new deflector stellar velocity dispersions measured from spectra obtained with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the Keck Telescopes, and the Very Large Telescope (VLT), utilizing improved methods. We used integrated JWST stellar kinematics for 5 lenses, VLT-MUSE for 2, and resolved kinematics from Keck and JWST for RXJ1131-1231. We also considered two samples of non-time-delay lenses: 11 from the Sloan Lens ACS (SLACS) sample with Keck-KCWI resolved kinematics; and 4 from the Strong Lenses in the Legacy Survey (SL2S) sample. We improved our analysis of line-of-sight effects, the surface brightness profile of the lens galaxies, and orbital anisotropy, and corrected for projection effects in the dynamics. Our uncertainties are maximally conservative by accounting for the mass-sheet degeneracy in the deflectors' mass density profiles. The analysis was blinded to prevent experimenter bias. Our primary result is based on the TDCOSMO-2025 sample, in combination with $\Omega_{\rm m}$ constraints from the Pantheon+ Type Ia supernovae (SN) dataset. In the flat $\Lambda$ cold dark matter (CDM), we find $H_0=71.6^{+3.9}_{-3.3}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$. The SLACS and SL2S samples are in excellent agreement with the TDCOSMO-2025 sample, improving the precision on $H_0$ in flat $\Lambda$CDM to 4.6%. Using the Dark Energy Survey SN Year-5 dataset (DES-SN5YR) or DESI-DR2 baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAO) likelihoods instead of Pantheon+ yields very similar results. We also present constraints in the open $\Lambda$CDM, $w$CDM, $w_0w_a$CDM, and $w_{\phi}$CDM cosmologies. The TDCOSMO $H_0$ inference is robust and consistent across all presented cosmological models, and our cosmological constraints in them agree with those from the BAO and SN.

astro-ph.CO

Project Dinos I: A joint lensing-dynamics constraint on the deviation from the power law in the mass profile of massive ellipticals

The mass distribution in massive elliptical galaxies encodes their evolutionary history, thus providing an avenue to constrain the baryonic astrophysics in their evolution. The power-law assumption for the radial mass profile in ellipticals has been sufficient to describe several observables to the noise level, including strong lensing and stellar dynamics. In this paper, we quantitatively constrained any deviation, or the lack thereof, from the power-law mass profile in massive ellipticals through joint lensing-dynamics analysis of a large statistical sample with 77 galaxy-galaxy lens systems. We performed an improved and uniform lens modelling of these systems from archival Hubble Space Telescope imaging using the automated lens modelling pipeline dolphin. We combined the lens model posteriors with the stellar dynamics to constrain the deviation from the power law after accounting for the line-of-sight lensing effects, a first for analyses on galaxy-galaxy lenses. We find that the Sloan Lens ACS Survey (SLACS) lens galaxies with a mean redshift of 0.2 are consistent with the power-law profile within 1.1$\sigma$ (2.8$\sigma$) and the Strong Lensing Legacy Survey (SL2S) lens galaxies with a mean redshift of 0.6 are consistent within 0.8$\sigma$ (2.1$\sigma$), for a spatially constant (Osipkov-Merritt) stellar anisotropy profile. We adopted the spatially constant anisotropy profile as our baseline choice based on previous dynamical observables of local ellipticals. However, spatially resolved stellar kinematics of lens galaxies are necessary to differentiate between the two anisotropy models. Future studies will use our lens models to constrain the mass distribution individually in the dark matter and baryonic components.

astro-ph.GA

TDCOSMO XIV: Practical Techniques for Estimating External Convergence of Strong Gravitational Lens Systems and Applications to the SDSS J0924+0219 System

Time-delay cosmography uses strong gravitational lensing of a time-variable source to infer the Hubble Constant. The measurement is independent from both traditional distance ladder and CMB measurements. An accurate measurement with this technique requires considering the effects of objects along the line of sight outside the primary lens, which is quantified by the external convergence ($\kappa_{\rm{ext}}$). In absence of such corrections, $H_0$ will be biased towards higher values in overdense fields and lower values in underdense fields. We discuss the current state of the methods used to account for environment effects. We present a new software package built for this kind of analysis and others that can leverage large astronomical survey datasets. We apply these techniques to the SDSS J0924+0219 strong lens field. We infer the relative density of the SDSS J0924+0219 field by computing weighted number counts for all galaxies in the field, and comparing to weighted number counts computed for a large number of fields in a reference survey. We then compute weighted number counts in the Millennium Simulation and compare these results to infer the external convergence of the lens field.Results. Our results show the SDSS J0924+0219 field is a fairly typical line of sight, with median $\kappa_{\rm{ext}} = -0.012$ and standard deviation $\sigma_{\kappa} = 0.028$.

astro-ph.CO