arXiv subjects

Pau Batlle

Publications and source records attributed to Pau Batlle.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Simultaneous Frequentist Calibration of Confidence Regions for Multiple Functionals in Constrained Inverse Problems

Many scientific analyses require simultaneous comparison of multiple functionals of an unknown signal at once, calling for multidimensional confidence regions with guaranteed simultaneous frequentist under structural constraints (e.g., non-negativity, shape, or physics-based). This paper unifies and extends many previous optimization-based approaches to constrained confidence region construction in linear inverse problems through the lens of statistical test inversion. We begin by reviewing the historical development of optimization-based confidence intervals for the single-functional setting, from "strict bounds" to the Burrus conjecture and its recent refutation via the aforementioned test inversion framework. We then extend this framework to the multiple-functional setting. This framework can be used to: (i) improve the calibration constants of previous methods, yielding smaller confidence regions that still preserve frequentist coverage, (ii) obtain tractable multidimensional confidence regions that need not be hyper-rectangles to better capture functional dependence structure, and (iii) generalize beyond Gaussian error distributions to generic log-concave error distributions. We provide theory establishing nominal simultaneous coverage of our methods and show quantitative volume improvements relative to prior approaches using numerical experiments.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Codiscovering graphical structure and functional relationships within data: A Gaussian Process framework for connecting the dots

Most problems within and beyond the scientific domain can be framed into one of the following three levels of complexity of function approximation. Type 1: Approximate an unknown function given input/output data. Type 2: Consider a collection of variables and functions, some of which are unknown, indexed by the nodes and hyperedges of a hypergraph (a generalized graph where edges can connect more than two vertices). Given partial observations of the variables of the hypergraph (satisfying the functional dependencies imposed by its structure), approximate all the unobserved variables and unknown functions. Type 3: Expanding on Type 2, if the hypergraph structure itself is unknown, use partial observations of the variables of the hypergraph to discover its structure and approximate its unknown functions. These hypergraphs offer a natural platform for organizing, communicating, and processing computational knowledge. While most scientific problems can be framed as the data-driven discovery of unknown functions in a computational hypergraph whose structure is known (Type 2), many require the data-driven discovery of the structure (connectivity) of the hypergraph itself (Type 3). We introduce an interpretable Gaussian Process (GP) framework for such (Type 3) problems that does not require randomization of the data, access to or control over its sampling, or sparsity of the unknown functions in a known or learned basis. Its polynomial complexity, which contrasts sharply with the super-exponential complexity of causal inference methods, is enabled by the nonlinear ANOVA capabilities of GPs used as a sensing mechanism.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Confidence intervals for functionals in constrained inverse problems via data-adaptive sampling-based calibration

We address functional uncertainty quantification for ill-posed inverse problems where it is possible to evaluate a possibly rank-deficient forward model, the observation noise distribution is known, and there are known parameter constraints. We present four constraint-aware confidence intervals extending the work of Batlle et al. (2023) by making the intervals both computationally feasible and less conservative. Our approach first shrinks the potentially unbounded constraint set compact in a data-adaptive way, obtains samples of the relevant test statistic inside this set to estimate a quantile function, and then uses these computed quantities to produce the intervals. Our data-adaptive bounding approach is based on the approach by Berger and Boos (1994), and involves defining a subset of the constraint set where the true parameter exists with high probability. This probabilistic guarantee is then incorporated into the final coverage guarantee in the form of an uncertainty budget. We then propose custom sampling algorithms to efficiently sample from this subset, even when the parameter space is high-dimensional. Optimization-based interval methods formulate confidence interval computation as two endpoint optimizations, where the optimization constraints can be set to achieve different types of interval calibration while seamlessly incorporating parameter constraints. However, choosing valid optimization constraints has been elusive. We show that all four proposed intervals achieve nominal coverage for a particular functional both theoretically and in practice, with numerical examples demonstrating superior performance of our intervals over the OSB interval in terms of both coverage and expected length. In particular, we show the superior performance in a realistic unfolding simulation from high-energy physics that is severely ill-posed and involves a rank-deficient forward model.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Optimization-based frequentist confidence intervals for functionals in constrained inverse problems: Resolving the Burrus conjecture

We present an optimization-based framework to construct confidence intervals for functionals in constrained inverse problems, ensuring valid one-at-a-time frequentist coverage guarantees. Our approach builds upon the now-called strict bounds intervals, originally pioneered by Burrus (1965) and Rust and Burrus (1972), which offer ways to directly incorporate any side information about the parameters during inference without introducing external biases. This family of methods allows for uncertainty quantification in ill-posed inverse problems without needing to select a regularizing prior. By tying optimization-based intervals to an inversion of a constrained likelihood ratio test, we translate interval coverage guarantees into type I error control and characterize the resulting interval via solutions to optimization problems. Along the way, we refute the Burrus conjecture, which posited that, for possibly rank-deficient linear Gaussian models with positivity constraints, a correction based on the quantile of the chi-squared distribution with one degree of freedom suffices to shorten intervals while maintaining frequentist coverage guarantees. Our framework provides a novel approach to analyzing the conjecture, and we construct a counterexample employing a stochastic dominance argument, which we also use to disprove a general form of the conjecture. We illustrate our framework with several numerical examples and provide directions for extensions beyond the Rust-Burrus method for nonlinear, non-Gaussian settings with general constraints.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

PMBO: Enhancing Black-Box Optimization through Multivariate Polynomial Surrogates

We introduce a surrogate-based black-box optimization method, termed Polynomial-model-based optimization (PMBO). The algorithm alternates polynomial approximation with Bayesian optimization steps, using Gaussian processes to model the error between the objective and its polynomial fit. We describe the algorithmic design of PMBO and compare the results of the performance of PMBO with several optimization methods for a set of analytic test functions. The results show that PMBO outperforms the classic Bayesian optimization and is robust with respect to the choice of its correlation function family and its hyper-parameter setting, which, on the contrary, need to be carefully tuned in classic Bayesian optimization. Remarkably, PMBO performs comparably with state-of-the-art evolutionary algorithms such as the Covariance Matrix Adaptation -- Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES). This finding suggests that PMBO emerges as the pivotal choice among surrogate-based optimization methods when addressing low-dimensional optimization problems. Hereby, the simple nature of polynomials opens the opportunity for interpretation and analysis of the inferred surrogate model, providing a macroscopic perspective on the landscape of the objective function.

math.OC↗

arXiv2024

Diffeomorphic Measure Matching with Kernels for Generative Modeling

This article presents a general framework for the transport of probability measures towards minimum divergence generative modeling and sampling using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHSs), inspired by ideas from diffeomorphic matching and image registration. A theoretical analysis of the proposed method is presented, giving a priori error bounds in terms of the complexity of the model, the number of samples in the training set, and model misspecification. An extensive suite of numerical experiments further highlights the properties, strengths, and weaknesses of the method and extends its applicability to other tasks, such as conditional simulation and inference.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Kernel Methods are Competitive for Operator Learning

We present a general kernel-based framework for learning operators between Banach spaces along with a priori error analysis and comprehensive numerical comparisons with popular neural net (NN) approaches such as Deep Operator Net (DeepONet) [Lu et al.] and Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) [Li et al.]. We consider the setting where the input/output spaces of target operator $\mathcal{G}^\dagger\,:\, \mathcal{U}\to \mathcal{V}$ are reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS), the data comes in the form of partial observations $ϕ(u_i), φ(v_i)$ of input/output functions $v_i=\mathcal{G}^\dagger(u_i)$ ($i=1,\ldots,N$), and the measurement operators $ϕ\,:\, \mathcal{U}\to \mathbb{R}^n$ and $φ\,:\, \mathcal{V} \to \mathbb{R}^m$ are linear. Writing $ψ\,:\, \mathbb{R}^n \to \mathcal{U}$ and $χ\,:\, \mathbb{R}^m \to \mathcal{V}$ for the optimal recovery maps associated with $ϕ$ and $φ$, we approximate $\mathcal{G}^\dagger$ with $\bar{\mathcal{G}}=χ\circ \bar{f} \circ ϕ$ where $\bar{f}$ is an optimal recovery approximation of $f^\dagger:=φ\circ \mathcal{G}^\dagger \circ ψ\,:\,\mathbb{R}^n \to \mathbb{R}^m$. We show that, even when using vanilla kernels (e.g., linear or Matérn), our approach is competitive in terms of cost-accuracy trade-off and either matches or beats the performance of NN methods on a majority of benchmarks. Additionally, our framework offers several advantages inherited from kernel methods: simplicity, interpretability, convergence guarantees, a priori error estimates, and Bayesian uncertainty quantification. As such, it can serve as a natural benchmark for operator learning.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Error Analysis of Kernel/GP Methods for Nonlinear and Parametric PDEs

We introduce a priori Sobolev-space error estimates for the solution of nonlinear, and possibly parametric, PDEs using Gaussian process and kernel based methods. The primary assumptions are: (1) a continuous embedding of the reproducing kernel Hilbert space of the kernel into a Sobolev space of sufficient regularity; and (2) the stability of the differential operator and the solution map of the PDE between corresponding Sobolev spaces. The proof is articulated around Sobolev norm error estimates for kernel interpolants and relies on the minimizing norm property of the solution. The error estimates demonstrate dimension-benign convergence rates if the solution space of the PDE is smooth enough. We illustrate these points with applications to high-dimensional nonlinear elliptic PDEs and parametric PDEs. Although some recent machine learning methods have been presented as breaking the curse of dimensionality in solving high-dimensional PDEs, our analysis suggests a more nuanced picture: there is a trade-off between the regularity of the solution and the presence of the curse of dimensionality. Therefore, our results are in line with the understanding that the curse is absent when the solution is regular enough.

math.NA↗

arXiv2022

Multiclass classification utilising an estimated algorithmic probability prior

Methods of pattern recognition and machine learning are applied extensively in science, technology, and society. Hence, any advances in related theory may translate into large-scale impact. Here we explore how algorithmic information theory, especially algorithmic probability, may aid in a machine learning task. We study a multiclass supervised classification problem, namely learning the RNA molecule sequence-to-shape map, where the different possible shapes are taken to be the classes. The primary motivation for this work is a proof of concept example, where a concrete, well-motivated machine learning task can be aided by approximations to algorithmic probability. Our approach is based on directly estimating the class (i.e., shape) probabilities from shape complexities, and using the estimated probabilities as a prior in a Gaussian process learning problem. Naturally, with a large amount of training data, the prior has no significant influence on classification accuracy, but in the very small training data regime, we show that using the prior can substantially improve classification accuracy. To our knowledge, this work is one of the first to demonstrate how algorithmic probability can aid in a concrete, real-world, machine learning problem.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Learning grounded word meaning representations on similarity graphs

This paper introduces a novel approach to learn visually grounded meaning representations of words as low-dimensional node embeddings on an underlying graph hierarchy. The lower level of the hierarchy models modality-specific word representations through dedicated but communicating graphs, while the higher level puts these representations together on a single graph to learn a representation jointly from both modalities. The topology of each graph models similarity relations among words, and is estimated jointly with the graph embedding. The assumption underlying this model is that words sharing similar meaning correspond to communities in an underlying similarity graph in a low-dimensional space. We named this model Hierarchical Multi-Modal Similarity Graph Embedding (HM-SGE). Experimental results validate the ability of HM-SGE to simulate human similarity judgements and concept categorization, outperforming the state of the art.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2020

Adaptive Test Allocation for Outbreak Detection and Tracking in Social Contact Networks

We present a general framework for adaptive allocation of viral tests in social contact networks. We pose and solve several complementary problems. First, we consider the design of a social sensing system whose objective is the early detection of a novel epidemic outbreak. In particular, we propose an algorithm to select a subset of individuals to be tested in order to detect the onset of an epidemic outbreak as fast as possible. We pose this problem as a hitting time probability maximization problem and use submodularity optimization techniques to derive explicit quality guarantees for the proposed solution. Second, once an epidemic outbreak has been detected, we consider the problem of adaptively distributing viral tests over time in order to maximize the information gained about the current state of the epidemic. We formalize this problem in terms of information entropy and mutual information and propose an adaptive allocation strategy with quality guarantees. For these problems, we derive analytical solutions for any stochastic compartmental epidemic model with Markovian dynamics, as well as efficient Monte-Carlo-based algorithms for non-Markovian dynamics. Finally, we illustrate the performance of the proposed framework in numerical experiments involving a model of Covid-19 applied to a real human contact network.

cs.SI↗