arXiv subjects

Paul A. Wiegert

Publications and source records attributed to Paul A. Wiegert.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

A Catalogue of Interstellar Material Delivery From Nearby Debris Disks

We modeled the trajectories of material ejected from 20 nearby debris disk stars, including Epsilon Eridani (Ran), Vega, Fomalhaut, and Beta Pictoris, within a simulated Milky Way potential in order to quantify their contribution to the population of interstellar material entering the solar system. Our simulations show that material from each of these 20 systems is currently to be expected within our planetary system. We calculate expected fluxes of both macroscopic interstellar objects (ISOs, $\geq100~$m), which could be detected by telescopic surveys, and smaller meteoroids ($\geq200~$microns), which could manifest as meteors in Earth's atmosphere. We estimate that the ISO population originating from these debris disks and currently within the inner solar system is on the order of ~2, only a fraction of the expected total ISO population but nonetheless likely to be discovered by Rubin. Meteors in Earth's atmosphere from these systems are expected as well, but current methods, both radar and video, might require decades to collect even a single event. Our sample is found to be rich in relatively low excess velocity particles compared to the broader expected ISO population, which might make them harder to distinguish observationally from bound objects in some cases. These results provide a framework for linking detections of interstellar material to their astrophysical origins, offering new opportunities to probe the composition and dynamical history of nearby planetary systems.

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arXiv2025

A Case Study of Interstellar Material Delivery: α Centauri

Interstellar material has been discovered in our Solar System, yet its origins and details of its transport are unknown. Here we present $α$ Centauri as a case study of the delivery of interstellar material to our Solar System. $α$ Centauri is a mature triple star system that likely harbours planets and is moving towards us with the point of closest approach approximately 28,000 years in the future. Assuming a current ejection model for the system, we find that such material can reach our Solar System and may currently be present here. The material that does reach us is mostly a product of low ($<2$ km/s) ejection velocities, and the rate at which it enters our Solar System is expected to peak around the time of $α$ Centauri 's closest approach. If $α$ Centauri ejects material at a rate comparable to our own Solar System, we estimate the current number of $α$ Centauri particles larger than 100 m in diameter within our Oort Cloud to be $10^{6}$, and during $α$ Centauri 's closest approach, this will increase by an order of magnitude. However, the observable fraction of such objects remains low as there is only a probability of $10^{-6}$ that one of them is within 10 au of the Sun. A small number ($\sim 10$) meteors greater than 100 micrometers from $α$ Centauri may currently be entering Earth's atmosphere every year: this number is very sensitive to the assumed ejected mass distribution, but the flux is expected to increase as $α$ Centauri approaches.

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arXiv2024

2019 UO$_{14}$: A Transient Trojan of Saturn

Saturn has long been the only giant planet in our solar system without any known Trojan members. In this paper, with serendipitous archival observations and refined orbit determination, we report that 2019 UO$_{14}$ is a Trojan of the gas giant. However, the object is only a transient Trojan currently librating around the leading Lagrange point $L_4$ of the Sun-Saturn system in a period of $\sim\!0.7$ kyr. Our N-body numerical simulation shows that 2019 UO$_{14}$ was likely captured as a Centaur and became trapped around $L_4$ $\sim\!2$ kyr ago from a horseshoe coorbital. The current Trojan state will be maintained for another millennium or thereabouts before transitioning back to a horseshoe state. Additionally, we characterize the physical properties of 2019 UO$_{14}$. Assuming a linear phase slope of $0.06 \pm 0.01$ mag/deg, the mean $r$-band absolute magnitude of the object was determined to be $H_r = 13.11 \pm 0.07$, with its color measured to be consistent with those of Jupiter and Neptune Trojans and not statistically different from Centaurs. Although the short-lived Saturn Trojan exhibited no compelling evidence of activity in the observations, we favour the possibility that it could be an active Trojan. If confirmed, 2019 UO$_{14}$ would be marked as the first active Trojan in our solar system. We conservatively determine the optical depth of dust within our photometric aperture to be $\lesssim\!10^{-7}$, corresponding to a dust mass-loss rate to be $\lesssim\!1$ kg s$^{-1}$, provided that the physical properties of dust grains resemble Centaur 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 1.

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arXiv2023

Preatmospheric detection of a meter-sized Earth impactor

On 2020 September 18 US Government sensors detected a bolide with peak bolometric magnitude of -19 over the western Pacific. The impact was also detected by the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) instrument on the GOES-17 satellite and infrasound sensors in Hawaii. The USG measurements reported a steep entry angle of $67^{\circ}$ from horizontal from a radiant $13^{\circ}$ E of N and an impact speed of 11.7 km s$^{-1}$. Interpretation of all energy yields produces a preferred energy estimate of 0.4 kt TNT, corresponding to a $23000$ kilogram $3$ meter diameter meteoroid. A post-impact search of telescopic images found that the ATLAS survey captured the object just 10 minutes prior to impact at an Earth-centred distance of nearly $11900$ kilometers with apparent magnitude $m\text{=}12.5$. The object appears as a $0.44^{\circ}$ streak originating on the eastern edge of the image extending one-third of the USG state vector-based prediction of $1.26^{\circ}$ over the 30 second exposure. The streak shows brightness variability consistent with small asteroid rotation. The position of Earth's shadow, the object's size, and its consistency with the reported USG state vector confirm the object is likely natural. This is the eighth preatmospheric detection of a Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) impactor and the closest initial telescopic detection prior to impact. The high altitude of peak fireball brightness suggest it was a weak object comparable in many respects with 2008 TC3 (Almahata Sitta meteorite), with absolute magnitude $H=32.5$ and likely low albedo. Therefore we suggest the NEA was a C-complex asteroid.

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arXiv2023

Modelling the 2022 τ-Herculid outburst

The $τ$-Herculids (IAU shower number #61 TAH) is a minor meteor shower associated with comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3, a Jupiter-Family comet that disintegrated into several fragments in 1995. As a consequence of the nucleus break-up, possible increased meteor rates were predicted for 2022. On May 30-31, observation networks around the world reported two distinct peaks of TAH activity, around solar longitudes 69.02° and 69.42°. This work examines the encounter conditions of the Earth with meteoroids ejected from 73P during the splitting event and on previous perihelion passages. Numerical simulations suggest that the main peak observed in 2022 was caused by meteoroids ejected from the splitting nucleus with four times the typical cometary gas expansion speed. High-resolution measurements performed with the Canadian Automated Meteor Observatory indicate that these meteoroids are fragile, with estimated bulk densities of 250 kg/m$^3$. In contrast with the main peak, the first TAH activity peak in 2022 is best modelled with trails ejected prior to 1960. We find that ordinary cometary activity could have produced other TAH apparitions observed in the past, including in 1930 and 2017. The extension of our model to future years predicts significant returns of the shower in 2033 and 2049.

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arXiv2022

The Lingering Death of Periodic Near-Sun Comet 323P/SOHO

We observed near-Sun comet 323P/SOHO for the first time using ground and space telescopes. In late December 2020, the object was recovered at Subaru showing no cometary features on its way to perihelion. However, in our postperihelion observations it developed a long narrow tail mimicking a disintegrated comet. The ejecta, comprised of at least mm-sized dust with power-law size distribution index $3.2 \pm 0.2$, was impulsively produced shortly after the perihelion passage, during which $\gtrsim$0.1-10% of the nucleus mass was shed due to excessive thermal stress and rotational disruption. Two fragments of $\sim$20 m in radius (assuming a geometric albedo of 0.15) were seen in HST observations from early March 2021. The nucleus, with an effective radius of $86 \pm 3$ m (the same albedo assumed) and an aspect ratio of $\sim$0.7, has a rotation period of 0.522 hr, which is the shortest for known comets in the solar system and implies cohesive strength $\gtrsim$10-100 Pa in the interior. The colour of the object was freakish, and how it changed temporally has never been previously observed. Using our astrometry, we found a strong nongravitational effect following a heliocentric dependency of $r_{\rm H}^{-8.5}$ in the transverse motion of the object. Our N-body integration reveals that 323P has a likelihood of 99.7% to collide with the Sun in the next two millennia driven by the $ν_6$ secular resonance.

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arXiv2022

A Dedicated Lunar Trojan Asteroid Survey with Small Ground-Based Telescopes

A co-orbital asteroid shares the orbit of a secondary body about its primary. Though more commonly encountered as an asteroid that shares a planet's orbit around the Sun, a co-orbital asteroid could similarly share the orbit of the Moon around the Earth. Though such asteroids would be close to Earth and so relatively bright, their rapid on-sky motion is such that they might escape detection by near-Earth asteroid surveys. The discovery of such lunar co-orbital asteroids (which we will refer to generically here as Lunar Trojans or LTs) would advance our understanding of inner Solar System orbital dynamics and would provide research opportunities for the growing number of missions slated for cislunar space. No LT asteroids are currently known and the last published survey dedicated to these asteroids was conducted nearly 40 years ago. It has been theoretically determined that orbits near the Earth-Moon L4 and L5 points could survive for several million years. Although this timescale is shorter than the lifetime of the Solar System, it introduces the possibility of the temporary capture of asteroids into the LT state. This project aims to observationally evaluate the population of LTs with modern techniques. Using four small ground-based telescopes from the iTelescope network, $8340\;deg^2$ on the sky were surveyed down to $15^{th}$ magnitude. Though one fast-moving near-Earth object was detected, no LTs were observed. We deduce an upper limit of $\lesssim 5$ LTs with $H<26$.

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arXiv2021

The Second Earth Trojan 2020 XL$_{5}$

The Earth Trojans are co-orbitals librating around the Lagrange points $L_4$ or $L_5$ of the Sun-Earth system. Although many numerical studies suggest that they can maintain their dynamical status and be stable on timescales up to a few tens of thousands of years or even longer, they remain an elusive population. Thus far only one transient member (2010 TK$_7$) has been discovered serendipitously. Here, we present a dynamical study of asteroid 2020 XL$_5$. With our meticulous followup astrometric observations of the object, we confirmed that it is a new Earth Trojan. However, its eccentric orbit brings it close encounters with Venus on a frequent basis. Based on our N-body integration, we found that the asteroid was captured into the current Earth Trojan status in the 15th century, and then it has a likelihood of 99.5% to leave the $L_4$ region within the next $\sim$10 kyr. Therefore, it is most likely that 2020 XL$_5$ is dynamically unstable over this timescale.

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arXiv2018

In Search of Recent Disruption of (3200) Phaethon: Model Implication and Hubble Space Telescope Search

Near-Earth asteroid (3200) Phaethon is notable for its association to a strong annual meteor shower, the Geminids, indicative of one or more episodes of mass ejection in the past. The mechanism of Phaethon's past activity is not yet understood. Here we present a Hubble Space Telescope (HST) search of meter-sized fragments in the vicinity of Phaethon, carried out during Phaethon's historic approach to the Earth in mid-December of 2017. Numerical simulation conducted to guide HST's pointing also show that the dynamical evolution of Phaethon-originated particles is quick, as ejected materials take no longer than $\sim250$ yr to spread to the entire orbit of Phaethon. Our search was completed down to 4-meter-class limit (assuming Phaethon-like albedo) and was expected to detect 0.035% particles ejected by Phaethon in the last several decades. The negative result of our search capped the total mass loss of Phaethon over the past few dozen orbits to be $10^{12}$ kg at $3σ$ level, taking the best estimates of size power-law from meteor observations and spacecraft data. Our result also implies a millimeter-sized dust flux of $<10^{-12} \mathrm{m^{-2} s^{-1}}$ within 0.1 au of Phaethon, suggesting that any Phaethon-bound mission is unlikely to encounter dense dust clouds.

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arXiv2018

Applying a Particle-only Model to the HL Tau Disk

Observations have revealed rich structures in protoplanetary disks, offering clues about their embedded planets. Due to the complexities introduced by the abundance of gas in these disks, modeling their structure in detail is computationally intensive, requiring complex hydrodynamic codes and substantial computing power. It would be advantageous if computationally simpler models could provide some preliminary information on these disks. Here we apply a particle-only model (that we developed for gas-poor debris disks) to the gas-rich disk, HL Tauri, to address the question of whether such simple models can inform the study of these systems. Assuming three potentially embedded planets, we match HL Tau's radial profile fairly well and derive best-fit planetary masses and orbital radii (0.40, 0.02, 0.21 Jupiter masses for the planets orbiting a 0.55 solar-mass star at 11.22, 29.67, 64.23 AU). Our derived parameters are comparable to those estimated by others, except for the mass of the second planet. Our simulations also reproduce some narrower gaps seen in the ALMA image away from the orbits of the planets. The nature of these gaps is debated but, based on our simulations, we argue they could result from planet-disk interactions via mean-motion resonances, and need not contain planets. Our results suggest that a simple particle-only model can be used as a first step to understanding dynamical structures in gas disks, particularly those formed by planets, and determine some parameters of their hidden planets, serving as useful initial inputs to hydrodynamic models which are needed to investigate disk and planet properties more thoroughly.

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arXiv2018

Finding Long Lost Lexell's Comet: The Fate of the First Discovered Near-Earth Object

Jupiter-family Comet D/1770 L1 (Lexell) was the first discovered Near-Earth Object (NEO), and passed the Earth on 1770 Jul 1 at a recorded distance of 0.015 au. The comet was subsequently lost due to unfavorable observing circumstances during its next apparition followed by a close encounter with Jupiter in 1779. Since then, the fate of D/Lexell has attracted interest from the scientific community, and now we revisit this long-standing question. We investigate the dynamical evolution of D/Lexell based on a set of orbits recalculated using the observations made by Charles Messier, the comet's discoverer, and find that there is a $98\%$ chance that D/Lexell remains in the Solar System by the year of 2000. This finding remains valid even if a moderate non-gravitational effect is imposed. Messier's observations also suggest that the comet is one of the largest known near-Earth comets, with a nucleus of $\gtrsim 10$ km in diameter. This implies that the comet should have been detected by contemporary NEO surveys regardless of its activity level if it has remained in the inner Solar System. We identify asteroid 2010 JL$_{33}$ as a possible descendant of D/Lexell, with a $0.8\%$ probability of chance alignment, but a direct orbital linkage of the two bodies has not been successfully accomplished. We also use the recalculated orbit to investigate the meteors potentially originating from D/Lexell. While no associated meteors have been unambiguously detected, we show that meteor observations can be used to better constrain the orbit of D/Lexell despite the comet being long lost.

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arXiv2017

Detection and Characterization of Extrasolar Planets through Mean-Motion Resonances. II. The Effect of the Planet's Orbital Eccentricity on Debris Disk Structures

Structures observed in debris disks may be caused by gravitational interaction with planetary or stellar companions. These perturbed disks are often thought to indicate the presence of planets and offer insights into the properties of both the disk and the perturbing planets. Gaps in debris disks may indicate a planet physically present within the gap, but such gaps can also occur away from the planet's orbit at mean-motion resonances (MMRs), and this is the focus of our interest here. We extend our study of planet-disk interaction through MMRs, presented in an earlier paper, to systems in which the perturbing planet has moderate orbital eccentricity, a common occurrence in exoplanetary systems. In particular, a new result is that the 3:1 MMR becomes distinct at higher eccentricity, while its effects are absent for circular planetary orbits. We also only consider gravitational interaction with a planetary body of at least 1 Jupiter mass. Our earlier work shows that even a 1 Earth mass planet can theoretically open an MMR gap; however, given the narrow gap that can be opened by a low-mass planet, its observability would be questionable. We find that the widths, locations, and shapes of two prominent structures, the 2:1 and 3:1 MMRs, could be used to determine the mass, semimajor axis, and eccentricity of the planetary perturber and present an algorithm for doing so. These MMR structures can be used to narrow the position and even determine the planetary properties (such as mass) of any inferred but as-yet-unseen planets within a debris disk. We also briefly discuss the implications of eccentric disks on brightness asymmetries and their dependence on the wavelengths with which these disks are observed.

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arXiv2016

Comet 252P/LINEAR: born (almost) dead?

Previous studies have revealed Jupiter-family comet 252P/LINEAR as a comet that was recently transported into the near-Earth object (NEO) region in $\sim1800$~AD yet only being weakly active. In this Letter, we examine the "formed (almost) dead" hypothesis for 252P/LINEAR using both dynamical and observational approaches. By statistically examining the dynamical evolution of 252P/LINEAR over a period of $10^7$~years, we find the median elapsed residency in the NEO region to be $4\times10^2$~years which highlights the likelihood of 252P/LINEAR as an (almost) first-time NEO. With available cometary and meteor observations, we find the dust production rate of 252P/LINEAR to be at the order of $10^6$~kg per orbit since its entry to the NEO region. These two lines of evidence support the hypothesis that the comet was likely to have formed in a volatile-poor environment. Cometary and meteor observations during the comet's unprecedented close approach to the Earth around 2016 Mar. 21 would be useful for the understanding of the surface and evolutionary properties of this unique comet.

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arXiv2015

When Comets Get Old: A Synthesis of Comet and Meteor Observations of the Low Activity Comet 209P/LINEAR

It is speculated that some weakly active comets may be transitional objects between active and dormant comets. These objects are at a unique stage of the evolution of cometary nuclei, as they are still identifiable as active comets, in contrast to inactive comets that are observationally indistinguishable from low albedo asteroids. In this paper, we present a synthesis of comet and meteor observations of Jupiter-family comet 209P/LINEAR, one of the most weakly active comets recorded to-date. Images taken by the Xingming 0.35-m telescope and the Gemini Flamingo-2 camera are modeled by a Monte Carlo dust model, which yields a low dust ejection speed ($1/10$ of that of moderately active comets), dominance of large dust grains, and a low dust production of $0.4~\mathrm{kg \cdot s^{-1}}$ at 19~d after the 2014 perihelion passage. We also find a reddish nucleus of 209P/LINEAR that is similar to D-type asteroids and most Trojan asteroids. Meteor observations with the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR), coupled with meteoroid stream modeling, suggest a low dust production of the parent over the past few hundred orbits, although there are hints of a some temporary increase in activity in the 18th century. Dynamical simulations indicate 209P/LINEAR may have resided in a stable near-Earth orbit for $\sim 10^4$~yr, which is significantly longer than typical JFCs. All these lines of evidence imply that 209P/LINEAR as an aging comet quietly exhausting its remaining near surface volatiles. We also compare 209P/LINEAR to other low activity comets, where evidence for a diversity of the origin of low activity is seen.

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arXiv2014

Meteoroid impacts onto asteroids: a competitor for Yarkovsky and YORP

The impact of a meteoroid onto an asteroid transfers linear and angular momentum to the larger body, which may affect its orbit and its rotational state. Here we show that the meteoroid environment of our Solar System can have an effect on small asteroids that is comparable to the Yarkovsky and Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effects under certain conditions. The momentum content of the meteoroids themselves is expected to generate an effect much smaller than that of the Yarkovsky effect. However, momentum transport by ejecta may increase the net effective force by two orders of magnitude for impacts into bare rock surfaces. This result is sensitive to the extrapolation of laboratory microcratering experiment results to real meteoroid-asteroid collisions and needs further study. If this extrapolation holds, then meteoroid impacts are more important to the dynamics of small asteroids than had previously been considered.

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arXiv2014

Hyperbolic meteors: interstellar or generated locally via the gravitational slingshot effect?

The arrival of solid particles from outside our solar system would present us with an invaluable source of scientific information. Attempts to detect such interstellar particles among the meteors observed in Earth's atmosphere have almost exclusively assumed that those particles moving above the Solar System's escape speed -- particles on orbits hyperbolic with respect to the Sun-- were precisely the extrasolar particles being searched for. Here we show that hyperbolic particles can be generated entirely within the Solar System by gravitational scattering of interplanetary dust and meteoroids by the planets. These particles have necessarily short lifetimes as they quickly escape our star system; nonetheless some may arrive at Earth at speeds comparable to those expected of interstellar meteoroids. Some of these are associated with the encounter of planets with the debris streams of individual comets; however, such encounters are relatively rare. The rates of occurrence of hyperbolically-scattered sporadic meteors are also quite low. Only one of every 10,000 optical meteors observed at Earth is expected to be such a locally generated hyperbolic and its heliocentric velocity is typically only a hundred meters per second above the heliocentric escape velocity at Earth's orbit. Mercury and Venus are predicted to generate weak 'hyperbolic meteor showers': the restrictive geometry of scattering to our planet means that a radiant near the Sun from which hyperbolic meteors arrive at Earth should recur with the planet's synodic period. However, though planetary scattering can produce meteoroids with speeds comparable to interstellar meteors and at fluxes near current upper limits for such events, the majority of this locally-generated component of hyperbolic meteoroids is just above the heliocentric escape velocity and should be easily distinguishable from true interstellar meteoroids.

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arXiv2013

The Unexpected 2012 Draconid Meteor Storm

An unexpected intense outburst of the Draconid meteor shower was detected by the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR) on October 8, 2012. The peak flux occurred at ~16:40 UT on October 8 with a maximum of 2.4 +/- 0.3 hr-1 km-2 (appropriate to meteoroid mass larger than 10-7 kg), equivalent to a ZHRmax = 9000 +/- 1000 using 5-minute intervals, using a mass distribution index of s = 1.88 +/- 0.01 as determined from the amplitude distribution of underdense Draconid echoes. This makes the out- burst among the strongest Draconid returns since 1946 and the highest flux shower since the 1966 Leonid meteor storm, assuming a constant power-law distribution holds from radar to visual meteoroid sizes. The weighted mean geocentric radiant in the time interval of 15-19h UT, Oct 8, 2012 was αg = 262.4 +/- 0.1 deg, δg = 55.7 +/- 0.1 deg (epoch J2000.0). Visual observers also reported increased activity around the peak time, but with a much lower rate (ZHR 200), suggesting that the magnitude-cumulative num- ber relationship is not a simple power-law. Ablation modeling of the observed meteors as a population does not yield a unique solution for the grain size and distribution of Draconid meteoroids, but is consistent with a typical Draconid meteoroid of mtotal between 10-6 to 10-4 kg being composed of 10 - 100 grains. Dynamical simulations indicate that the outburst was caused by dust particles released during the 1966 per- ihelion passage of the parent comet, 21P/Giacobini-Zinner, although there are dis- crepancies between the modelled and observed timing of the encounter, presumably caused by approaches of the comet to Jupiter during 1966-1972. Based on the results of our dynamical simulation, we predict possible increased activity of the Draconid meteor shower in 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2025.

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arXiv2013

Will Comet 209P/LINEAR Generate the Next Meteor Storm?

Previous studies have suggested that Comet 209P/LINEAR may produce strong me- teor activity on Earth on 2014 May 24; however, exact timing and activity level is difficult to estimate due to the limited physical observations of the comet. Here we reanalyze the optical observations of 209P/LINEAR obtained during its 2009 appari- tion. We find that the comet is relatively depleted in dust production, with Af ρ at 1 cm level within eight months around its perihelion. This feature suggested that this comet may be currently transitioning from typical comet to a dormant comet. Syn- dyne simulation shows that the optical cometary tail is dominated by larger particles with β ~ 0.003. Numerical simulations of the cometary dust trails confirm the arrival of particles on 2014 May 24 from some of the 1798-1979 trails. The nominal radiant is at RA 122 +/- 1 deg, Dec 79 +/- 1 deg (J2000) in the constellation of Camelopardalis. Given that the comet is found to be depleted in dust production, we concluded that a meteor storm (ZHR>=1000) may be unlikely. However, our simulation also shows that the size distribution of the arrived particles is skewed strongly to larger particles. Coupling with the result of syndyne simulation, we think that the event, if detectable, may be dominated by bright meteors. We encourage observers to monitor the expected meteor event as it will provide us with rare direct information on the dynamical history of 209P/LINEAR which is otherwise irretrievably lost.

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