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Paul Bailey

Publications and source records attributed to Paul Bailey.

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West Australian Pandemic Response: The Black Swan of Black Swans

The COVID-19 Pandemic has been described as the global challenge of our time, an enormous human tragedy with dramatic economic impacts. This paper describes the response and expected recovery process for Western Australia, where a rapid and effective response was implemented. This has enabled an early transition into an expected recovery both in health and economic terms. The positive lessons learned from this experience are documented as they emerge in order to support other states and nations as they address this issue globally in the near-term and consider enduring improvements for the longer term. While the authors have personal experience in the WA context, wider observations across Australia and selected international benchmarks are also included. Key lessons include the importance of good health advice in Australia's interest; timely, synchronized and aligned action at all levels of government; a program of well communicated, aligned health and economic measures which support all in society allowing a very high level of appropriate community behaviour, ensuring the health system was not overloaded; innovation in telehealth, testing, pandemic modelling, and integrated operations which also allowed essential industries to continue; and strong border and travel controls with highly effective isolation preventing community spread, ultimately enabling rapid elimination of the disease from the hospital system. In combination, these demonstrate that in the case of Western Australia the result of first eliminating the disease from the community, and then reopening the economy progressively at a strong pace, has enabled a world leading outcome in both in health and economic terms. The lessons from this experience are widely applicable, shareable both as supporting service to other regions and through knowledge transfer.

q-bio.PE

Hurwitz monodromy, spin separation and higher levels of a modular tower

Each finite $p$-perfect group $G$ ($p$ a prime) has a universal central $p$-extension. For a perfect group these central extensions come from its {\sl Schur multiplier}. Serre gave a Stiefel-Whitney class approach to analyzing spin covers of alternating groups ($p=2$) aimed at geometric covering space problems. This included the regular version of the Inverse Galois Problem. Every finite simple group with order divisible by $p$ has an infinite string of perfect centerless group covers exhibiting nontrivial Schur multipliers for the prime $p$. Sequences of moduli spaces of curves attached to $G$ and $p$, called {\sl Modular Towers}, capture the geometry of these many appearances of Schur multipliers in degeneration phenomena of {\sl Harbater-Mumford cover representatives}. These modular curve tower generalizations inspire conjectures akin to Serre's open image theorem. This includes that at suitably high levels we expect no rational points. Guided by two papers of Serre's, these cases reveal common appearance of spin structures producing $θ$-nulls on these moduli spaces. The results immediately apply to all the expected Inverse Galois topics. This includes systematic exposure of moduli spaces having points where the field of moduli is a field of definition and other points where it is not.

math.NT