arXiv subjects

Paul Bilokon

Publications and source records attributed to Paul Bilokon.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

AI-driven Alternative Medicine: A Novel Approach to Drug Discovery and Repurposing

AIAltMed is a cutting-edge platform designed for drug discovery and repurposing. It utilizes Tanimoto similarity to identify structurally similar non-medicinal compounds to known medicinal ones. This preprint introduces AIAltMed, discusses the concept of `AI-driven alternative medicine,' evaluates Tanimoto similarity's advantages and limitations, and details the system's architecture. Furthermore, it explores the benefits of extending the system to include PubChem and outlines a corresponding implementation strategy.

q-bio.BM↗

arXiv2023

Applying Deep Learning to Calibrate Stochastic Volatility Models

Stochastic volatility models, where the volatility is a stochastic process, can capture most of the essential stylized facts of implied volatility surfaces and give more realistic dynamics of the volatility smile/skew. However, they come with the significant issue that they take too long to calibrate. Alternative calibration methods based on Deep Learning (DL) techniques have been recently used to build fast and accurate solutions to the calibration problem. Huge and Savine developed a Differential Machine Learning (DML) approach, where Machine Learning models are trained on samples of not only features and labels but also differentials of labels to features. The present work aims to apply the DML technique to price vanilla European options (i.e. the calibration instruments), more specifically, puts when the underlying asset follows a Heston model and then calibrate the model on the trained network. DML allows for fast training and accurate pricing. The trained neural network dramatically reduces Heston calibration's computation time. In this work, we also introduce different regularisation techniques, and we apply them notably in the case of the DML. We compare their performance in reducing overfitting and improving the generalisation error. The DML performance is also compared to the classical DL (without differentiation) one in the case of Feed-Forward Neural Networks. We show that the DML outperforms the DL. The complete code for our experiments is provided in the GitHub repository: https://github.com/asridi/DML-Calibration-Heston-Model

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2023

Transformers versus LSTMs for electronic trading

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, long short term memory (LSTM), one kind of recurrent neural network (RNN), has been widely applied in time series prediction. Like RNN, Transformer is designed to handle the sequential data. As Transformer achieved great success in Natural Language Processing (NLP), researchers got interested in Transformer's performance on time series prediction, and plenty of Transformer-based solutions on long time series forecasting have come out recently. However, when it comes to financial time series prediction, LSTM is still a dominant architecture. Therefore, the question this study wants to answer is: whether the Transformer-based model can be applied in financial time series prediction and beat LSTM. To answer this question, various LSTM-based and Transformer-based models are compared on multiple financial prediction tasks based on high-frequency limit order book data. A new LSTM-based model called DLSTM is built and new architecture for the Transformer-based model is designed to adapt for financial prediction. The experiment result reflects that the Transformer-based model only has the limited advantage in absolute price sequence prediction. The LSTM-based models show better and more robust performance on difference sequence prediction, such as price difference and price movement.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2023

Derivatives Sensitivities Computation under Heston Model on GPU

This report investigates the computation of option Greeks for European and Asian options under the Heston stochastic volatility model on GPU. We first implemented the exact simulation method proposed by Broadie and Kaya and used it as a baseline for precision and speed. We then proposed a novel method for computing Greeks using the Milstein discretisation method on GPU. Our results show that the proposed method provides a speed-up up to 200x compared to the exact simulation implementation and that it can be used for both European and Asian options. However, the accuracy of the GPU method for estimating Rho is inferior to the CPU method. Overall, our study demonstrates the potential of GPU for computing derivatives sensitivies with numerical methods.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2023

From Deep Filtering to Deep Econometrics

Calculating true volatility is an essential task for option pricing and risk management. However, it is made difficult by market microstructure noise. Particle filtering has been proposed to solve this problem as it favorable statistical properties, but relies on assumptions about underlying market dynamics. Machine learning methods have also been proposed but lack interpretability, and often lag in performance. In this paper we implement the SV-PF-RNN: a hybrid neural network and particle filter architecture. Our SV-PF-RNN is designed specifically with stochastic volatility estimation in mind. We then show that it can improve on the performance of a basic particle filter.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2023

Real-time VaR Calculations for Crypto Derivatives in kdb+/q

Cryptocurrency market is known for exhibiting significantly higher volatility than traditional asset classes. Efficient and adequate risk calculation is vital for managing risk exposures in such market environments where extreme price fluctuations occur in short timeframes. The objective of this thesis is to build a real-time computation workflow that provides VaR estimates for non-linear portfolios of cryptocurrency derivatives. Many researchers have examined the predictive capabilities of time-series models within the context of cryptocurrencies. In this work, we applied three commonly used models - EMWA, GARCH and HAR - to capture and forecast volatility dynamics, in conjunction with delta-gamma-theta approach and Cornish-Fisher expansion to crypto derivatives, examining their performance from the perspectives of calculation efficiency and accuracy. We present a calculation workflow which harnesses the information embedded in high-frequency market data and the computation simplicity inherent in analytical estimation procedures. This workflow yields reasonably robust VaR estimates with calculation latencies on the order of milliseconds.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2023

A compendium of data sources for data science, machine learning, and artificial intelligence

Recent advances in data science, machine learning, and artificial intelligence, such as the emergence of large language models, are leading to an increasing demand for data that can be processed by such models. While data sources are application-specific, and it is impossible to produce an exhaustive list of such data sources, it seems that a comprehensive, rather than complete, list would still benefit data scientists and machine learning experts of all levels of seniority. The goal of this publication is to provide just such an (inevitably incomplete) list -- or compendium -- of data sources across multiple areas of applications, including finance and economics, legal (laws and regulations), life sciences (medicine and drug discovery), news sentiment and social media, retail and ecommerce, satellite imagery, and shipping and logistics, and sports.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

C++ Design Patterns for Low-latency Applications Including High-frequency Trading

This work aims to bridge the existing knowledge gap in the optimisation of latency-critical code, specifically focusing on high-frequency trading (HFT) systems. The research culminates in three main contributions: the creation of a Low-Latency Programming Repository, the optimisation of a market-neutral statistical arbitrage pairs trading strategy, and the implementation of the Disruptor pattern in C++. The repository serves as a practical guide and is enriched with rigorous statistical benchmarking, while the trading strategy optimisation led to substantial improvements in speed and profitability. The Disruptor pattern showcased significant performance enhancement over traditional queuing methods. Evaluation metrics include speed, cache utilisation, and statistical significance, among others. Techniques like Cache Warming and Constexpr showed the most significant gains in latency reduction. Future directions involve expanding the repository, testing the optimised trading algorithm in a live trading environment, and integrating the Disruptor pattern with the trading algorithm for comprehensive system benchmarking. The work is oriented towards academics and industry practitioners seeking to improve performance in latency-sensitive applications.

cs.PF↗

arXiv2023

Exploring the Advantages of Transformers for High-Frequency Trading

This paper explores the novel deep learning Transformers architectures for high-frequency Bitcoin-USDT log-return forecasting and compares them to the traditional Long Short-Term Memory models. A hybrid Transformer model, called \textbf{HFformer}, is then introduced for time series forecasting which incorporates a Transformer encoder, linear decoder, spiking activations, and quantile loss function, and does not use position encoding. Furthermore, possible high-frequency trading strategies for use with the HFformer model are discussed, including trade sizing, trading signal aggregation, and minimal trading threshold. Ultimately, the performance of the HFformer and Long Short-Term Memory models are assessed and results indicate that the HFformer achieves a higher cumulative PnL than the LSTM when trading with multiple signals during backtesting.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2023

Benchmarking Specialized Databases for High-frequency Data

This paper presents a benchmarking suite designed for the evaluation and comparison of time series databases for high-frequency data, with a focus on financial applications. The proposed suite comprises of four specialized databases: ClickHouse, InfluxDB, kdb+ and TimescaleDB. The results from the suite demonstrate that kdb+ has the highest performance amongst the tested databases, while also highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of each of the databases. The benchmarking suite was designed to provide an objective measure of the performance of these databases as well as to compare their capabilities for different types of data. This provides valuable insights into the suitability of different time series databases for different use cases and provides benchmarks that can be used to inform system design decisions.

cs.DB↗

arXiv2022

An in silico drug repurposing pipeline to identify drugs with the potential to inhibit SARS-CoV-2 replication

Drug repurposing provides an opportunity to redeploy drugs, which ideally are already approved for use in humans, for the treatment of other diseases. For example, the repurposing of dexamethasone and baricitinib has played a crucial role in saving patient lives during the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. There remains a need to expand therapeutic approaches to prevent life-threatening complications in patients with COVID-19. Using an in silico approach based on structural similarity to drugs already in clinical trials for COVID-19, potential drugs were predicted for repurposing. For a subset of identified drugs with different targets to their corresponding COVID-19 clinical trial drug, a mechanism of action analysis was applied to establish whether they might have a role in inhibiting the replication of SARS-CoV-2. Of sixty drugs predicted in this study, two with the potential to inhibit SARS-CoV-2 replication were identified using mechanism of action analysis. Triamcinolone is a corticosteroid that is structurally similar to dexamethasone; gallopamil is a calcium channel blocker that is structurally similar to verapamil. In silico approaches indicate possible mechanisms of action for both drugs in inhibiting SARS-CoV-2 replication. The identification of these drugs as potentially useful for patients with COVID-19 who are at a higher risk of developing severe disease supports the use of in silico approaches to facilitate quick and cost-effective drug repurposing. Such drugs could expand the number of treatments available to patients who are not protected by vaccination.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2022

Quasi-Monte Carlo methods for calculating derivatives sensitivities on the GPU

The calculation of option Greeks is vital for risk management. Traditional pathwise and finite-difference methods work poorly for higher-order Greeks and options with discontinuous payoff functions. The Quasi-Monte Carlo-based conditional pathwise method (QMC-CPW) for options Greeks allows the payoff function of options to be effectively smoothed, allowing for increased efficiency when calculating sensitivities. Also demonstrated in literature is the increased computational speed gained by applying GPUs to highly parallelisable finance problems such as calculating Greeks. We pair QMC-CPW with simulation on the GPU using the CUDA platform. We estimate the delta, vega and gamma Greeks of three exotic options: arithmetic Asian, binary Asian, and lookback. Not only are the benefits of QMC-CPW shown through variance reduction factors of up to $1.0 \times 10^{18}$, but the increased computational speed through usage of the GPU is shown as we achieve speedups over sequential CPU implementations of more than $200$x for our most accurate method.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2021

Iterated and exponentially weighted moving principal component analysis

The principal component analysis (PCA) is a staple statistical and unsupervised machine learning technique in finance. The application of PCA in a financial setting is associated with several technical difficulties, such as numerical instability and nonstationarity. We attempt to resolve them by proposing two new variants of PCA: an iterated principal component analysis (IPCA) and an exponentially weighted moving principal component analysis (EWMPCA). Both variants rely on the Ogita-Aishima iteration as a crucial step.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2021

Market regime classification with signatures

We provide a data-driven algorithm to classify market regimes for time series. We utilise the path signature, encoding time series into easy-to-describe objects, and provide a metric structure which establishes a connection between separation of regimes and clustering of points.

q-fin.RM↗