arXiv subjects

Paul Charbonneau

Publications and source records attributed to Paul Charbonneau.

27 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2017

A coupled $2\times2$D Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model. II. Reference dynamo solutions

In this paper we complete the presentation of a new hybrid $2\times2$D flux transport dynamo (FTD) model of the solar cycle based on the Babcock-Leighton mechanism of poloidal magnetic field regeneration via the surface decay of bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs). This hybrid model is constructed by allowing the surface flux transport (SFT) simulation described in Lemerle et al. 2015 to provide the poloidal source term to an axisymmetric FTD simulation defined in a meridional plane, which in turn generates the BMRs required by the SFT. A key aspect of this coupling is the definition of an emergence function describing the probability of BMR emergence as a function of the spatial distribution of the internal axisymmetric magnetic field. We use a genetic algorithm to calibrate this function, together with other model parameters, against observed cycle 21 emergence data. We present a reference dynamo solution reproducing many solar cycle characteristics, including good hemispheric coupling, phase relationship between the surface dipole and the BMR-generating internal field, and correlation between dipole strength at cycle maximum and peak amplitude of the next cycle. The saturation of the cycle amplitude takes place through the quenching of the BMR tilt as a function of the internal field. The observed statistical scatter about the mean BMR tilt, built into the model, acts as a source of stochasticity which dominates amplitude fluctuations. The model thus can produce Dalton-like epochs of strongly suppressed cycle amplitude lasting a few cycles and can even shut off entirely following an unfavorable sequence of emergence events.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2015

A coupled 2$\times$2D Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model. I. Surface magnetic flux evolution

The need for reliable predictions of the solar activity cycle motivates the development of dynamo models incorporating a representation of surface processes sufficiently detailed to allow assimilation of magnetographic data. In this series of papers we present one such dynamo model, and document its behavior and properties. This first paper focuses on one of the model's key components, namely surface magnetic flux evolution. Using a genetic algorithm, we obtain best-fit parameters of the transport model by least-squares minimization of the differences between the associated synthetic synoptic magnetogram and real magnetographic data for activity cycle 21. Our fitting procedure also returns Monte Carlo-like error estimates. We show that the range of acceptable surface meridional flow profiles is in good agreement with Doppler measurements, even though the latter are not used in the fitting process. Using a synthetic database of bipolar magnetic region (BMR) emergences reproducing the statistical properties of observed emergences, we also ascertain the sensitivity of global cycle properties, such as the strength of the dipole moment and timing of polarity reversal, to distinct realizations of BMR emergence, and on this basis argue that this stochasticity represents a primary source of uncertainty for predicting solar cycle characteristics.

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arXiv2015

IAU commission 10 "Solar Activity": Legacy report and triennial report for 2012-2015

After more than half a century of community support related to the science of "solar activity'', IAU's Commission 10 was formally discontinued in 2015, to be succeeded by C.E2 with the same area of responsibility. On this occasion, we look back at the growth of the scientific disciplines involved around the world over almost a full century. Solar activity and fields of research looking into the related physics of the heliosphere continue to be vibrant and growing, with currently over 2,000 refereed publications appearing per year from over 4,000 unique authors, publishing in dozens of distinct journals and meeting in dozens of workshops and conferences each year. The size of the rapidly growing community and of the observational and computational data volumes, along with the multitude of connections into other branches of astrophysics, pose significant challenges; aspects of these challenges are beginning to be addressed through, among others, the development of new systems of literature reviews, machine-searchable archives for data and publications, and virtual observatories. As customary in these reports, we highlight some of the research topics that have seen particular interest over the most recent triennium, specifically active-region magnetic fields, coronal thermal structure, coronal seismology, flares and eruptions, and the variability of solar activity on long time scales. We close with a collection of developments, discoveries, and surprises that illustrate the range and dynamics of the discipline.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2015

Meridional circulation dynamics from 3D MHD global simulations of solar convection

The form of the solar meridional circulation is a very important ingredient for mean field flux transport dynamo models. Yet a shroud of mystery still surrounds this large-scale flow, given that its measurement using current helioseismic techniques is challenging. In this work we use results from 3D global simulations of solar convection to infer the dynamical behavior of the established meridional circulation. We make a direct comparison between the meridional circulation that arises in these simulations and the latest observations. Based on our results we argue that there should be an equatorward flow at the base of the convection zone at mid latitudes, below the current maximum depth helioseismic measures can probe (0.75 R). We also provide physical arguments to justify this behaviour. The simulations indicate that the meridional circulation undergoes substantial changes in morphology as the magnetic cycle unfolds. We close by discussing the importance of these dynamical changes for current methods of observation that involve long averaging periods of helioseismic data. Also noteworthy is the fact that these topological changes indicate a rich interaction between magnetic fields and plasma flows, which challenges the ubiquitous kinematic approach used in the vast majority of mean field dynamo simulations.

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arXiv2014

Hemispheric Coupling: Comparing Dynamo Simulations and Observations

Numerical simulations that reproduce solar-like magnetic cycles can be used to generate long-term statistics. The variations in N-S hemispheric cycle synchronicity and amplitude produced in simulations has not been widely compared to observations. The observed limits on asymmetry show that hemispheric sunspot area production is no more than 20% asymmetric for cycles 12-23 and phase lags do not exceed 20% (2 yrs) of the total cycle period. Independent studies have found a long-term trend in phase values as one hemisphere leads the other for ~four cycles. Such persistence in phase is not indicative of a stochastic phenomenon. We compare the findings to results from a numerical simulation of solar convection recently produced with the EULAG-MHD model. This simulation spans 1600 yrs and generated 40 regular, sunspot-like cycles. While the simulated cycle length is too long and the toroidal bands remain at too high of latitudes, some solar-like aspects of hemispheric asymmetry are reproduced. The model reproduces the synchrony of polarity inversions and onset of cycle as the simulated phase lags do not exceed 20% of the cycle period. Simulated amplitude variations between the N and S hemispheres are larger than observed in the Sun. The simulations show one hemisphere persistently leads the other for several successive cycles, placing an upper bound on the efficiency of transequatorial magnetic coupling mechanisms. These include magnetic diffusion, cross-equatorial mixing within elongated convective rolls and transequatorial meridional flow cells. One or more of these processes may lead to magnetic flux cancellation whereby the oppositely directed fields come in close proximity and cancel each other across the magnetic equator late in the solar cycle. We discuss the discrepancies between model and observations and the constraints they pose on possible mechanisms of hemispheric coupling.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2014

Predictive Capabilities of Avalanche Models for Solar Flares

We assess the predictive capabilities of various classes of avalanche models for solar flares. We demonstrate that avalanche models cannot generally be used to predict specific events due to their high sensitivity to their embedded stochastic process. We show that deterministically driven models can nevertheless alleviate this caveat and be efficiently used for large events predictions. Our results promote a new approach for large (typically X-class) solar flares predictions based on simple and computationally inexpensive avalanche models.

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arXiv2014

Deterministically Driven Avalanche Models of Solar Flares

We develop and discuss the properties of a new class of lattice-based avalanche models of solar flares. These models are readily amenable to a relatively unambiguous physical interpretation in terms of slow twisting of a coronal loop. They share similarities with other avalanche models, such as the classical stick--slip self-organized critical model of earthquakes, in that they are driven globally by a fully deterministic energy loading process. The model design leads to a systematic deficit of small scale avalanches. In some portions of model space, mid-size and large avalanching behavior is scale-free, being characterized by event size distributions that have the form of power-laws with index values, which, in some parameter regimes, compare favorably to those inferred from solar EUV and X-ray flare data. For models using conservative or near-conservative redistribution rules, a population of large, quasiperiodic avalanches can also appear. Although without direct counterparts in the observational global statistics of flare energy release, this latter behavior may be relevant to recurrent flaring in individual coronal loops. This class of models could provide a basis for the prediction of large solar flares.

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arXiv2010

Formation and disruption of current filaments in a flow-driven turbulent magnetosphere

Recent observations have established that the magnetosphere is a system of natural complexity. The co-existence of multi-scale structures such as auroral arcs, turbulent convective flows, and scale-free distributions of energy perturbations has lacked a unified explanation, although there is strong reason to believe that they all stem from a common base of physics. In this paper we show that a slow but turbulent convection leads to the formation of multi-scale current filaments reminiscent of auroral arcs. The process involves an interplay between random shuffling of field lines and dissipation of magnetic energy on sub-MHD scales. As the filament system reaches a critical level of complexity, local current disruption can trigger avalanches of energy release of varying sizes, leading to scale-free distributions over energy perturbation, power, and event duration. A long-term memory effect is observed whereby the filament system replicates itself after each avalanche. The results support the view that that the classical and inverse cascades operate simultaneously in the magnetosphere. In the former, the high Reynolds-number plasma flow disintegrate into turbulence through successive breakdowns; in the latter, the interactions of small-scale flow eddies with the magnetic field can self-organize into elongated current filaments and large-scale energy avalanches mimicking the substorm.

physics.plasm-ph↗

arXiv2007

Predicting Solar Flares by Data Assimilation in Avalanche Models. I. Model Design and Validation

Data assimilation techniques, developed in the last two decades mainly for weather prediction, produce better forecasts by taking advantage of both theoretical/numerical models and real-time observations. In this paper, we explore the possibility of applying the data-assimilation techniques known as 4D-VAR to the prediction of solar flares. We do so in the context of a continuous version of the classical cellular-automaton-based self-organized critical avalanche models of solar flares introduced by Lu and Hamilton (Astrophys. J., 380, L89, 1991). Such models, although a priori far removed from the physics of magnetic reconnection and magneto-hydrodynamical evolution of coronal structures, nonetheless reproduce quite well the observed statistical distribution of flare characteristics. We report here on a large set of data assimilation runs on synthetic energy release time series. Our results indicate that, despite the unpredictable (and unobservable) stochastic nature of the driving/triggering mechanism within the avalanche model, 4D-VAR succeeds in producing optimal initial conditions that reproduce adequately the time series of energy released by avalanches/flares. This is an essential first step towards forecasting real flares.

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