arXiv subjects

Paul Jenkins

Publications and source records attributed to Paul Jenkins.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

On the Coalescence Time Distribution in Multi-type Supercritical Branching Processes

Consider a population evolving as a discrete-time supercritical multi-type Galton--Watson process. Suppose we run the process for $T$ generations, then sample $k$ individuals uniformly at generation $T$ and trace their genealogy backwards in time. In the limiting regime as $T \rightarrow \infty$, the expected behaviour of the sample's ancestry has been analysed extensively in the single-type case and, more recently, for multi-type processes in the critical case. In this paper, we present a formula for the distribution function of the generation $t$ of the most recent common ancestor in terms of the limiting distribution of the normalised population size. In addition, we provide effective bounds for the decay of this distribution function to 1 in terms of the harmonic moments of the population size at generation $t$. In order to better understand the behaviour of these harmonic moments, we use a multi-type generalisation of the Harris--Sevastyanov transformation to express harmonic moments at generation $t$ in terms of moments of the transformed process at the first generation. We present numerical results demonstrating that it is possible to approximate the coalescence time distribution effectively in practical settings.

math.PR↗

arXiv2025

Modular Forms with Only Nonnegative Coefficients

We study modular forms for $\textrm{SL}_2(\mathbb{Z})$ with no negative Fourier coefficients. Let $A(k)$ be the positive integer where if the first $A(k)$ Fourier coefficients of a modular form of weight $k$ for $\textrm{SL}_2(\mathbb{Z})$ are nonnegative, then all of its Fourier coefficients are nonnegative, so that $A(k)$ can be interpreted as a ``nonnegativity Sturm bound''. We give upper and lower bounds for $A(k)$, as well as an upper bound on the $n$th Fourier coefficient of any form with no negative Fourier coefficients.

math.NT↗

arXiv2024

The effect of the trace operator on the duality of modular grids in genus zero levels

Griffin, the second author, and Molnar studied coefficient duality for canonical bases for a broad range of spaces of weakly holomorphic modular forms, showing that the Fourier coefficients of canonical basis elements appear as negatives of Fourier coefficients for elements of a canonical basis of a related space of forms. We investigate the effect of the trace operator on this duality for modular forms for $Γ_0(N)$ of genus zero and show exactly when duality still holds after applying the trace operator.

math.NT↗

arXiv2022

The arithmetic of modular grids

A modular grid is a pair of sequences $(f_m)_m$ and $(g_n)_n$ of weakly holomorphic modular forms such that for almost all $m$ and $n$, the coefficient of $q^n$ in $f_m$ is the negative of the coefficient of $q^m$ in $g_n$. Zagier proved this coefficient duality in weights $1/2$ and $3/2$ in the Kohnen plus space, and such grids have appeared for Poincaré series, for modular forms of integral weight, and in many other situations. We give a general proof of coefficient duality for canonical row-reduced bases of spaces of weakly holomorphic modular forms of integral or half-integral weight for every group $Γ\subseteq {\text{SL}}_2(\mathbb{R})$ commensurable with ${\text{SL}}_2(\mathbb{Z})$. We construct bivariate generate functions that encode these modular forms, and study linear operations on the resulting modular grids.

math.NT↗

arXiv2020

Congruences for coefficients of modular functions in levels 3, 5, and 7 with poles at 0

We give congruences modulo powers of $p \in \{3, 5,7\}$ for the Fourier coefficients of certain modular functions in level $p$ with poles only at 0, answering a question posed by Andersen and the first author and continuing work done by the authors and Moss. The congruences involve a modulus that depends on the base $p$ expansion of the modular form's order of vanishing at $\infty$.

math.NT↗

arXiv2018

Divisibility properties of coefficients of modular functions in genus zero levels

We prove divisibility results for the Fourier coefficients of canonical basis elements for the spaces of weakly holomorphic modular forms of weight $0$ and levels $6, 10, 12, 18$ with poles only at the cusp at infinity. In addition, we show that these Fourier coefficients satisfy Zagier duality in all weights, and give a general formula for the generating functions of such canonical bases for all genus zero levels.

math.NT↗

arXiv2018

How Cox models react to a study-specific confounder in a patient-level pooled dataset: Random-effects better cope with an imbalanced covariate across trials unless baseline hazards differ

Combining patient-level data from clinical trials can connect rare phenomena with clinical endpoints, but statistical techniques applied to a single trial may become problematical when trials are pooled. Estimating the hazard of a binary variable unevenly distributed across trials showcases a common pooled database issue. We studied how an unevenly distributed binary variable can compromise the integrity of fixed and random effects Cox proportional hazards models. We compared fixed effect and random effects Cox proportional hazards models on a set of simulated datasets inspired by a 17-trial pooled database of patients presenting with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-STEMI undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. An unevenly distributed covariate can bias hazard ratio estimates, inflate standard errors, raise type I error, and reduce power. While uneveness causes problems for all Cox proportional hazards models, random effects suffer least. Compared to fixed effect models, random effects suffer lower bias and trade inflated type I errors for improved power. Contrasting hazard rates between trials prevent accurate estimates from both fixed and random effects models. When modeling a covariate unevenly distributed across pooled trials with similar baseline hazard rates, Cox proportional hazards models with a random trial effect more accurately estimate hazard ratios than fixed effects. Differing between-trial baseline hazard rates bias both random and fixed effect models. With an unevenly-distributed covariate and similar baseline hazard rates across trials, a random effects Cox proportional hazards model outperforms a fixed effect model, but cannot overcome contrasting baseline hazard rates.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2018

Crossing points in survival analysis sensitively depend on system conditions

Crossing survival curves complicate how we interpret results from a clinical trial's primary endpoint. We find the function to determine a crossing point's location depends exponentially on individual survival curves. This exponential relationship between survival curves and the crossing point transforms small survival curve errors into large crossing point errors. In most cases, crossing points are sensitive to individual survival errors and may make accurately locating a crossing point unsuccessful. We argue more complicated analyses for mitigating crossing points should be reserved only after first exploring a crossing point's variability, or hypothesis tests account for crossing point variability.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2018

Zagier duality for level $p$ weakly holomorphic modular forms

We prove Zagier duality between the Fourier coefficients of canonical bases for spaces of weakly holomorphic modular forms of prime level $p$ with $11 \leq p \leq 37$ with poles only at the cusp at $\infty$, and special cases of duality for an infinite class of prime levels. We derive generating functions for the bases for genus 1 levels.

math.NT↗

arXiv2017

Congruences for coefficients of level 2 modular functions with poles at 0

We give congruences modulo powers of 2 for the Fourier coefficients of certain level 2 modular functions with poles only at 0, answering a question posed by Andersen and the first author. The congruences involve a modulus that depends on the binary expansion of the modular form's order of vanishing at $\infty$.

math.NT↗

arXiv2017

Differential operators on polar harmonic Maass forms and elliptic duality

In this paper, we study polar harmonic Maass forms of negative integral weight. Using work of Fay, we construct Poincaré series which span the space of such forms and show that their elliptic coefficients exhibit duality properties which are similar to the properties known for Fourier coefficients of harmonic Maass forms and weakly holomorphic modular forms.

math.NT↗

arXiv2017

Weakly holomorphic modular forms in prime power levels of genus zero

Let $M_k^\sharp(N)$ be the space of weight $k$, level $N$ weakly holomorphic modular forms with poles only at the cusp at $\infty$. We explicitly construct a canonical basis for $M_k^\sharp(N)$ for $N\in\{8,9,16,25\}$, and show that many of the Fourier coefficients of the basis elements in $M_0^\sharp(N)$ are divisible by high powers of the prime dividing the level $N$. Additionally, we show that these basis elements satisfy a Zagier duality property, and extend Griffin's results on congruences in level 1 to levels 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 16, and 25.

math.NT↗

arXiv2016

Zeros of modular forms of half integral weight

We study canonical bases for spaces of weakly holomorphic modular forms of level 4 and weights in $\mathbb{Z}+\frac{1}{2}$ and show that almost all modular forms in these bases have the property that many of their zeros in a fundamental domain for $Γ_0(4)$ lie on a lower boundary arc of the fundamental domain. Additionally, we show that at many places on this arc, the generating function for Hurwitz class numbers is equal to a particular mock modular Poincaré series, and show that for positive weights, a particular set of Fourier coefficients of cusp forms in this canonical basis cannot simultaneously vanish.

math.NT↗

arXiv2014

Coefficient Bounds for Level 2 Cusp Forms and Modular Functions

We give explicit upper bounds for the coefficients of arbitrary weight $k$, level 2 cusp forms, making Deligne's well-known $O(n^{\frac{k-1}{2}+ε})$ bound precise. We also derive asymptotic formulas and explicit upper bounds for the coefficients of certain level 2 modular functions.

math.NT↗

arXiv2014

Congruences for coefficients of modular functions

We examine canonical bases for weakly holomorphic modular forms of weight $0$ and level $p = 2, 3, 5, 7, 13$ with poles only at the cusp at $\infty$. We show that many of the Fourier coefficients for elements of these canonical bases are divisible by high powers of $p$, extending results of the first author and Andersen. Additionally, we prove similar congruences for elements of a canonical basis for the space of modular functions of level $4$, and give congruences modulo arbitrary primes for coefficients of such modular functions in levels 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 13.

math.NT↗

arXiv2013

Interlacing of zeros of weakly holomorphic modular forms

We prove that the zeros of a family of extremal modular forms interlace, settling a question of Nozaki. Additionally, we show that the zeros of almost all forms in a basis for the space of weakly holomorphic modular forms of weight $k$ for $\SL_2(\mathbb{Z})$ interlace on most of the lower boundary of the fundamental domain.

math.NT↗

arXiv2013

Integral traces of weak Maass forms of genus zero odd prime level

Duke and the second author defined a family of linear maps from spaces of weakly holomorphic modular forms of negative integral weight and level 1 into spaces of weakly holomorphic modular forms of half integral weight and level 4 and showed that these lifts preserve the integrality of Fourier coefficients. We show that the generalization of these lifts to modular forms of genus 0 odd prime level also preserves the integrality of Fourier coefficients.

math.NT↗

arXiv2013

Zeros of weakly holomorphic modular forms of level 4

Let $M_k^\sharp(4)$ be the space of weakly holomorphic modular forms of weight $k$ and level $4$ that are holomorphic away from the cusp at $\infty$. We define a canonical basis for this space and show that for almost all of the basis elements, the majority of their zeros in a fundamental domain for $Γ_0(4)$ lie on the lower boundary of the fundamental domain. Additionally, we show that the Fourier coefficients of the basis elements satisfy an interesting duality property.

math.NT↗