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Paul Kabaila

Publications and source records attributed to Paul Kabaila.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

The impact of a Hausman pretest, applied to panel data, on the coverage probability of confidence intervals

In the analysis of panel data that includes a time-varying covariate, a Hausman pretest is commonly used to decide whether subsequent inference is made using the random effects model or the fixed effects model. We consider the effect of this pretest on the coverage probability of a confidence interval for the slope parameter. We prove three new finite sample theorems that make it easy to assess, for a wide variety of circumstances, the effect of the Hausman pretest on the minimum coverage probability of this confidence interval. Our results show that for the small levels of significance of the Hausman pretest commonly used in applications, the minimum coverage probability of the confidence interval for the slope parameter can be far below nominal.

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A new recentered confidence sphere for the multivariate normal mean

We describe a new recentered confidence sphere for the mean, theta, of a multivariate normal distribution. This sphere is centred on the positive-part James-Stein estimator, with radius that is a piecewise cubic Hermite interpolating polynomial function of the norm of the data vector. This radius function is determined by numerically minimizing the scaled expected volume, at theta = 0, of this confidence sphere, subject to the coverage constraint. We use the computationally-convenient formula, derived by Casella and Hwang [3], for the coverage probability of a recentered confidence sphere. Casella and Hwang, op. cit., describe a recentered confidence sphere that is also centred on the positive-part James-Stein estimator, but with radius function determined by empirical Bayes considerations. Our new recentered confidence sphere compares favourably with this confidence sphere, in terms of both the minimum coverage probability and the scaled expected volume at theta = 0.

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A new method of randomization of lattice rules for multiple integration

Cranley and Patterson put forward the following randomization as the basis for the estimation of the error of a lattice rule for an integral of a one-periodic function over the unit cube in s dimensions. The lattice rule is randomized using independent random shifts in each coordinate direction that are uniformly distributed in the interval [0,1]. This randomized lattice rule results in an unbiased estimator of the multiple integral. However, in practice, random variables that are independent and uniformly distributed on [0,1] are not available, since this would require an infinite number of random independent bits. A more realistic practical implementation of the Cranley and Patterson randomization uses rs independent random bits, in the following way. The lattice rule is randomized using independent random shifts in each coordinate direction that are uniformly distributed on {0, 1/2^r, ... ,(2^r-1)/2^r}, where r may be large. For a rank-1 lattice rule with 2^m quadrature points and r >= m, we show that this randomized lattice rule leads to an estimator of the multiple integral that typically has a large bias. We therefore propose that these rs independent random bits be used to perform a new randomization that employs an extension, in the number of quadrature points, to a lattice rule with 2^(m+sr) quadrature points (leading to embedded lattice rules).This new randomization is shown to lead to an estimator of the multiple integral that has much smaller bias.

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Fletcher-Turek Model Averaged Profile Likelihood Confidence Intervals

We evaluate the model averaged profile likelihood confidence intervals proposed by Fletcher and Turek (2011) in a simple situation in which there are two linear regression models over which we average. We obtain exact expressions for the coverage and the scaled expected length of the intervals and use these to compute these quantities in particular situations. We show that the Fletcher-Turek confidence intervals can have coverage well below the nominal coverage and expected length greater than that of the standard confidence interval with coverage equal to the same minimum coverage. In these situations, the Fletcher-Turek confidence intervals are unfortunately not better than the standard confidence interval used after model selection but ignoring the model selection process.

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A comparison of Bayesian and frequentist interval estimators in regression that utilize uncertain prior information

Consider a linear regression model with regression parameter beta and normally distributed errors. Suppose that the parameter of interest is theta = a^T beta where a is a specified vector. Define the parameter tau = c^T beta - t where c and t are specified and a and c are linearly independent. Also suppose that we have uncertain prior information that tau = 0. Kabaila and Giri, 2009, JSPI, describe a new frequentist 1-alpha confidence interval for theta that utilizes this uncertain prior information. We compare this confidence interval with Bayesian 1-alpha equi-tailed and shortest credible intervals for theta that result from a prior density for tau that is a mixture of a rectangular "slab" and a Dirac delta function "spike", combined with noninformative prior densities for the other parameters of the model. We show that these frequentist and Bayesian interval estimators depend on the data in very different ways. We also consider some close variants of this prior distribution that lead to Bayesian and frequentist interval estimators with greater similarity. Nonetheless, as we show, substantial differences between these interval estimators remain.

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On confidence intervals in regression that utilize uncertain prior information about a vector parameter

Consider a linear regression model with n-dimensional response vector, p-dimensional regression parameter beta and independent normally distributed errors. Suppose that the parameter of interest is theta = a^T beta where a is a specified vector. Define the s-dimensional parameter vector tau=C^T beta-t where C and t are specified. Also suppose that we have uncertain prior information that tau=0. Part of our evaluation of a frequentist confidence interval for theta is the ratio (expected length of this confidence interval)/(expected length of standard 1-alpha confidence interval), the scaled expected length of this interval. We say that a 1-alpha confidence interval for theta utilizes this uncertain prior information if (a) the scaled expected length of this interval is significantly less than 1 when tau=0, (b) the maximum value of the scaled expected length is not too large and (c) this confidence interval reverts to the standard 1-alpha confidence interval when the data happen to strongly contradict the prior information. Let hat{Theta}=a^T hat{beta} and hat{tau}=C^T hat{beta}-t, where hat{beta} is the least squares estimator of beta. We consider the particular case that that E((hat{tau}-tau)(hat{Theta}-theta))=0, so that hat{Theta} and hat{tau} are independent. We present a new 1-alpha confidence interval for theta that utilizes the uncertain prior informationthat tau=0. The following problem is used to illustrate the application of this new confidence interval. Consider a 2^3 factorial experiment with 1 replicate. Suppose that the parameter of interest theta is a specified linear combination of the main effects. Assume that the three-factorinteraction is zero. Also suppose that we have uncertain prior information that all of the two-factor interactions are zero. Our aim is to find a frequentist 0.95 confidence interval for theta that utilizes this uncertain prior information.

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On randomized confidence intervals for the binomial probability

Suppose that X_1,X_2,...,X_n are independent and identically Bernoulli(theta) distributed. Also suppose that our aim is to find an exact confidence interval for theta that is the intersection of a 1-α/2 upper confidence interval and a 1-α/2 lower confidence interval. The Clopper-Pearson interval is the standard such confidence interval for theta, which is widely used in practice. We consider the randomized confidence interval of Stevens, 1950 and present some extensions, including pseudorandomized confidence intervals. We also consider the "data-randomized" confidence interval of Korn, 1987 and point out some additional attractive features of this interval. We also contribute to the discussion about the practical use of such confidence intervals.

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The coverage probability of confidence intervals in one-way analysis of covariance after two F tests

Consider a one-way analysis of covariance model. Suppose that the parameter of interest theta is a specified linear contrast of the expected responses, for a given value of the covariate. Also suppose that the inference of interest is a 1-alpha confidence interval for theta. The following two-stage procedure has been proposed to determine the form of the model. In Stage 1, we carry out an F test of the null hypothesis that the slopes are all zero against the alternative hypothesis that they are not all zero. If this null hypothesis is accepted then we assume that the slopes are all zero; otherwise we proceed to Stage 2. In Stage 2, we carry out an F test of the null hypothesis that the slopes are all equal against the alternative hypothesis that they are not all equal. If this null hypothesis is accepted then we assume that the slopes are all equal; otherwise this assumption is not made. We present a general methodology for the examination of the effect of this two-stage model selection procedure on the coverage probability of a subsequently-constructed confidence interval for theta, with nominal coverage 1-alpha. This methodology is applied to a numerical example for which it is shown that this confidence interval is completely inadequate.

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Confidence intervals in regression centred on the SCAD estimator

Consider a linear regression model. Fan and Li (2001) describe the smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) point estimator of the regression parameter vector. To gain insight into the properties of this estimator, they consider an orthonormal design matrix and focus on the estimation of a specified component of this vector. They show that the SCAD point estimator has three attractive properties. We answer the question: To what extent can an interval estimator, centred on the SCAD estimator, have similar attractive properties?

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Note on a paradox in decision-theoretic interval estimation

Confidence intervals are assessed according to two criteria, namely expected length and coverage probability. In an attempt to apply the decision-theoretic method to finding a good confidence interval, a loss function that is a linear combination of the interval length and the indicator function that the interval includes the parameter of interest has been proposed. We consider the particular case that the parameter of interest is the normal mean, when the variance is unknown. Casella, Hwang and Robert, Statistica Sinica, 1993, have shown that this loss function, combined with the standard noninformative prior, leads to a generalized Bayes rule that is a confidence interval for this parameter which has "paradoxical behaviour". We show that a simple modification of this loss function, combined with the same prior, leads to a generalized Bayes rule that is the usual confidence interval i.e. the "paradoxical behaviour" is removed.

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Simultaneous confidence intervals for the population cell means, for two-by-two factorial data, that utilize uncertain prior information

Consider a two-by-two factorial experiment with more than 1 replicate. Suppose that we have uncertain prior information that the two-factor interaction is zero. We describe new simultaneous frequentist confidence intervals for the 4 population cell means, with simultaneous confidence coefficient 1-alpha, that utilize this prior information in the following sense. These simultaneous confidence intervals define a cube with expected volume that (a) is relatively small when the two-factor interaction is zero and (b) has maximum value that is not too large. Also, these intervals coincide with the standard simultaneous confidence intervals obtained by Tukey's method, with simultaneous confidence coefficient 1-alpha, when the data strongly contradict the prior information that the two-factor interaction is zero. We illustrate the application of these new simultaneous confidence intervals to a real data set.

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Effect of a preliminary test of homogeneity of stratum-specific odds ratios on their confidence intervals

Consider a case-control study in which the aim is to assess the effect of a factor on disease occurrence. We suppose that this factor is dichotomous. Also suppose that the data consists of two strata, each stratum summarized by a two-by-two table. A commonly-proposed two-stage analysis of this type of data is the following. We carry out a preliminary test of homogeneity of the stratum-specific odds ratios. If the null hypothesis of homogeneity is accepted then we find a confidence interval for the assumed common value (across strata) of the odds ratio. We examine the statistical properties of this two-stage analysis, based on the Woolf method, on confidence intervals constructed for the stratum-specific odds ratios, for large numbers of cases and controls for each stratum. We provide both a Monte Carlo simulation method and an elegant large-sample method for this examination. These methods are applied to obtain numerical results in the context of the large numbers of cases and controls for each stratum that arose in a real-life dataset. In this context, we find that the preliminary test of homogeneity of the stratum-specific odds ratios has a very harmful effect on the coverage probabilities of these confidence intervals.

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Further properties of frequentist confidence intervals in regression that utilize uncertain prior information

Consider a linear regression model with n-dimensional response vector, regression parameter β= (β_1, ..., β_p) and independent and identically N(0, σ^2) distributed errors. Suppose that the parameter of interest is θ= a^T βwhere a is a specified vector. Define the parameter τ= c^T β- t where c and t are specified. Also suppose that we have uncertain prior information that τ= 0. Part of our evaluation of a frequentist confidence interval for θis the ratio (expected length of this confidence interval)/(expected length of standard 1-αconfidence interval), which we call the scaled expected length of this interval. We say that a 1-αconfidence interval for θutilizes this uncertain prior information if (a) the scaled expected length of this interval is significantly less than 1 when τ= 0, (b) the maximum value of the scaled expected length is not too much larger than 1 and (c) this confidence interval reverts to the standard 1-αconfidence interval when the data happen to strongly contradict the prior information. Kabaila and Giri, 2009, JSPI present a new method for finding such a confidence interval. Let \hatβdenote the least squares estimator of β. Also let \hatΘ= a^T \hatβand \hatτ= c^T \hatβ- t. Using computations and new theoretical results, we show that the performance of this confidence interval improves as |Corr(\hatΘ, \hatτ)| increases and n-p decreases.

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The performance of a two-stage analysis of ABAB/BABA crossover trials

Freeman has considered the following two-stage procedure for finding a confidence interval for the treatment difference theta, using data from an AB/BA crossover trial. In the first stage, a preliminary test of the null hypothesis that the differential carryover is zero, is carried out. If this hypothesis is accepted then the confidence interval for theta is constructed assuming that the differential carryover is zero. If, on the other hand, this hypothesis is rejected then this confidence interval is constructed using only data from the first period. Freeman has shown that this confidence interval has minimum coverage probability far below nominal. He therefore concludes that this confidence interval should not be used. In the present paper, we analyse the performance of a similar two-stage procedure for an ABAB/BABA crossover trial. This trial differs in very significant ways from an AB/BA crossover trial, including the fact that for an ABAB/BABA crossover trial there is an unbiased estimator of the differential carryover that is unaffected by between-subject variation. Despite these great differences, we arrive at the same conclusion as Freeman. Namely, that the confidence interval resulting from the two-stage procedure should not be used.

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Variable-width confidence intervals in Gaussian regression and penalized maximum likelihood estimators

Hard thresholding, LASSO , adaptive LASSO and SCAD point estimators have been suggested for use in the linear regression context when most of the components of the regression parameter vector are believed to be zero, a sparsity type of assumption. Potscher and Schneider, 2010, Electronic Journal of Statistics, have considered the properties of fixed-width confidence intervals that include one of these point estimators (for all possible data values). They consider a normal linear regression model with orthogonal regressors and show that these confidence intervals are longer than the standard confidence interval (based on the maximum likelihood estimator) when the tuning parameter for these point estimators is chosen to lead to either conservative or consistent model selection. We extend this analysis to the case of variable-width confidence intervals that include one of these point estimators (for all possible data values). In consonance with these findings of Potscher and Schneider, we find that these confidence intervals perform poorly by comparison with the standard confidence interval, when the tuning parameter for these point estimators is chosen to lead to consistent model selection. However, when the tuning parameter for these point estimators is chosen to lead to conservative model selection, our conclusions differ from those of Potscher and Schneider. We consider the variable-width confidence intervals of Farchione and Kabaila, 2008, Statistics & Probability Letters, which have advantages over the standard confidence interval in the context that there is a belief in a sparsity type of assumption. These variable-width confidence intervals are shown to include the hard thresholding, LASSO, adaptive LASSO and SCAD estimators (for all possible data values) provided that the tuning parameters for these estimators are chosen to belong to an appropriate interval.

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The coverage probabililty of confidence intervals in regression after a preliminary F test

Consider a linear regression model with regression parameter beta=(beta_1,..., beta_p) and independent normal errors. Suppose the parameter of interest is theta = a^T beta, where a is specified. Define the s-dimensional parameter vector tau = C^T beta - t, where C and t are specified. Suppose that we carry out a preliminary F test of the null hypothesis H_0: tau = 0 against the alternative hypothesis H_1: tau not equal to 0. It is common statistical practice to then construct a confidence interval for theta with nominal coverage 1-alpha, using the same data, based on the assumption that the selected model had been given to us a priori(as the true model). We call this the naive 1-alpha confidence interval for theta. This assumption is false and it may lead to this confidence interval having minimum coverage probability far below 1-alpha, making it completely inadequate. Our aim is to compute this minimum coverage probability. It is straightforward to find an expression for the coverage probability of this confidence interval that is a multiple integral of dimension s+1. However, we derive a new elegant and computationally-convenient formula for this coverage probability. For s=2 this formula is a sum of a triple and a double integral and for all s>2 this formula is a sum of a quadruple and a double integral. This makes it easy to compute the minimum coverage probability of the naive confidence interval, irrespective of how large s is. A very important practical application of this formula is to the analysis of covariance. In this context, tau can be defined so that H_0 expresses the hypothesis of "parallelism". Applied statisticians commonly recommend carrying out a preliminary F test of this hypothesis. We illustrate the application of our formula with a real-life analysis of covariance data set and a preliminary F test for "parallelism". We show that the naive 0.95 confidence interval has minimum coverage probability 0.0846, showing that it is completely inadequate.

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Admissibility of the usual confidence interval in linear regression

Consider a linear regression model with independent and identically normally distributed random errors. Suppose that the parameter of interest is a specified linear combination of the regression parameters. We prove that the usual confidence interval for this parameter is admissible within a broad class of confidence intervals.

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