arXiv subjects

Paul Kosovich

Publications and source records attributed to Paul Kosovich.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Review of Machine Learning Models for Solar Energetic Particle Prediction

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events have attracted increasing attention due to their significant radiation hazards for aviation, spacecraft electronics, and human missions beyond Earth's magnetosphere. From a scientific perspective, SEP events are intriguing because they arise from a set of physical processes extending from the solar surface and corona through the heliosphere, offering insight into particle acceleration and transport mechanisms that are widely applicable across astrophysics. Therefore, advancing our ability to understand and predict SEP events is essential both for deepening our knowledge of such mechanisms and for safeguarding space technologies and exploration. Traditionally, researchers have modeled SEPs using physics-based simulations and empirical methods. More recently, machine learning (ML) has emerged as a new tool for understanding and predicting SEP events. The purpose of this manuscript is to review the currently available ML models for SEP prediction, identify the datasets used for training, compare their architectures, inputs, and outputs, and, based on these insights, outline good practices and recommendations for future research.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

The Random Hivemind: An Ensemble Deep Learner Application to Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Problem

The application of machine learning and deep learning, including the wide use of non-ensemble, conventional neural networks (CoNN), for predicting various phenomena has become very popular in recent years thanks to the efficiencies and the abilities of these techniques to find relationships in data without human intervention. However, certain CoNN setups may not work on some datasets, especially if the parameters passed to it, including model parameters and hyperparameters, are arguably arbitrary in nature and need to continuously be updated with the need to retrain the model. This concern can be partially alleviated by employing committees of neural networks that are identical in terms of input features and architectures, initialized randomly, and "vote" on the decisions made by the committees as a whole. Yet, it is possible for the committee members to "agree" on identical sets of weights and biases for all nodes and edges. Members of these committees also cannot be expanded to accommodate new features and entire committees must therefore be retrained in order to do so. We propose the Random Hivemind (RH) approach, which helps to alleviate this concern by having multiple neural network estimators make decisions based on random permutations of features and prescribing a method to determine the weight of the decision of each individual estimator. The effectiveness of RH is demonstrated through experimentation in the predictions of hazardous Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events by comparing it to that of using both CoNNs and the aforementioned setup of committees. Our results demonstrate that RH, while having a comparable or better performance than the CoNN and a Committee-based approach, demonstrates a lesser score spread for the individual experiments, and shows promising results with respect to capturing almost every single flare instance leading to SEPs.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Forecasting SEP Events During Solar Cycles 23 and 24 Using Interpretable Machine Learning

Prediction of the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events garner increasing interest as space missions extend beyond Earth's protective magnetosphere. These events, which are, in most cases, products of magnetic reconnection-driven processes during solar flares or fast coronal-mass-ejection-driven shock waves, pose significant radiation hazards to aviation, space-based electronics, and particularly, space exploration. In this work, we utilize the recently developed dataset that combines the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager's (SDO/HMI) Space weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) and the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Michelson Doppler Imager's (SoHO/MDI) Space Weather MDI Active Region Patches (SMARP). We employ a suite of machine learning strategies, including Support Vector Machines (SVM) and regression models, to evaluate the predictive potential of this new data product for a forecast of post-solar flare SEP events. Our study indicates that despite the augmented volume of data, the prediction accuracy reaches 0.7 +- 0.1, which aligns with but does not exceed these published benchmarks. A linear SVM model with training and testing configurations that mimic an operational setting (positive-negative imbalance) reveals a slight increase (+ 0.04 +- 0.05) in the accuracy of a 14-hour SEP forecast compared to previous studies. This outcome emphasizes the imperative for more sophisticated, physics-informed models to better understand the underlying processes leading to SEP events.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Predicting Solar Proton Events of Solar Cycles 22-24 using GOES Proton & soft X-Ray flux features

Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events and their major subclass, Solar Proton Events (SPEs), can have unfavorable consequences on numerous aspects of life and technology, making them one of the most harmful effects of solar activity. Garnering knowledge preceding such events by studying operational data flows is essential for their forecasting. Considering only Solar Cycle (SC) 24 in our previous study, Sadykov et al. 2021, we found that it may be sufficient to utilize only proton and soft X-ray (SXR) parameters for SPE forecasts. Here, we report a catalog recording $\geq$ 10 MeV $\geq$ 10 particle flux unit SPEs with their properties, spanning SCs 22-24, using NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite flux data. We report an additional catalog of daily proton and SXR flux statistics for this period, employing it to test the application of machine learning (ML) on the prediction of SPEs using a Support Vector Machine (SVM) and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). We explore the effects of training models with data from one and two SCs, evaluating how transferable a model can be across different time periods. XGBoost proved to be more accurate than SVMs for almost every test considered, while outperforming operational SWPC NOAA predictions and a persistence forecast. Interestingly, training done with SC 24 produces weaker TSS and HSS2, even when paired with SC 22 or SC 23, indicating transferability issues. This work contributes towards validating forecasts using long-spanning data -- an understudied area in SEP research that should be considered to verify the cross-cycle robustness of ML-driven forecasts.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Statistical Study of the Correlation between Solar Energetic Particles and Properties of Active Regions

The flux of energetic particles originating from the Sun fluctuates during the solar cycles. It depends on the number and properties of Active Regions (ARs) present in a single day and associated solar activities, such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Observational records of the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC NOAA) enable the creation of time-indexed databases containing information about ARs and particle flux enhancements, most widely known as Solar Energetic Particle events (SEPs). In this work, we utilize the data available for Solar Cycles 21-24, and the initial phase of Cycle 25 to perform a statistical analysis of the correlation between SEPs and properties of ARs inferred from the McIntosh and Hale classifications. We find that the complexity of the magnetic field, longitudinal location, area, and penumbra type of the largest sunspot of ARs are most correlated with the production of SEPs. It is found that most SEPs ($\approx$60\%, or 108 out of 181 considered events) were generated from an AR classified with the 'k' McIntosh subclass as the second component, and these ARs are more likely to produce SEPs if they fall in a Hale class containing $δ$ component. The resulting database containing information about SEP events and ARs is publicly available and can be used for the development of Machine Learning (ML) models to predict the occurrence of SEPs.

astro-ph.SR↗