arXiv subjects

Paul Krühner

Publications and source records attributed to Paul Krühner.

22 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2014

Derivatives pricing in energy markets: an infinite dimensional approach

Based on forward curves modelled as Hilbert-space valued processes, we analyse the pricing of various options relevant in energy markets. In particular, we connect empirical evidence about energy forward prices known from the literature to propose stochastic models. Forward prices can be represented as linear functions on a Hilbert space, and options can thus be viewed as derivatives on the whole curve. The value of these options are computed under various specifications, in addition to their deltas. In a second part, cross-commodity models are investigated, leading to a study of square integrable random variables with values in a "two-dimensional" Hilbert space. We analyse the covariance operator and representations of such variables, as well as presenting applications to pricing of spread and energy quanto options.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2014

Representation of infinite dimensional forward price models in commodity markets

We study the forward price dynamics in commodity markets realized as a process with values in a Hilbert space of absolutely continuous functions defined by Filipović. The forward dynamics are defined as the mild solution of a certain stochastic partial differential equation driven by an infinite dimensional Lévy process. It is shown that the associated spot price dynamics can be expressed as a sum of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, or more generally, as a sum of certain stationary processes. These results link the possibly infinite dimensional forward dynamics to classical commodity spot models. We continue with a detailed analysis of multiplication and integral operators on the Hilbert spaces and show that Hilbert-Schmidt operators are essentially integral operators. The covariance operator of the Lévy process driving the forward dynamics and the diffusion term can both be specified in terms of such operators, and we analyse in several examples the consequences on model dynamics and their probabilistic properties. Also, we represent the forward price for contracts delivering over a period in terms of an integral operator, a case being relevant for power and gas markets. In several examples we reduce our general model to existing commodity spot and forward dynamics.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2013

On a Heath-Jarrow-Morton approach for stock options

This paper aims at transferring the philosophy behind Heath-Jarrow-Morton to the modelling of call options with all strikes and maturities. Contrary to the approach by Carmona and Nadtochiy (2009) and related to the recent contribution Carmona and Nadtochiy (2012) by the same authors, the key parametrisation of our approach involves time-inhomogeneous Lévy processes instead of local volatility models. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for absence of arbitrage. Moreover we discuss the construction of arbitrage-free models. Specifically, we prove their existence and uniqueness given basic building blocks.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2012

Subordination of Hilbert space valued Lévy processes

We generalise multivariate subordination of Lévy processes as introduced by Barndorff-Nielsen, Pedersen, and Sato to Hilbert space valued Lévy processes. The processes are explicitly characterised and conditions for integrability and martingale properties are derived under various assumptions of the Lévy process and subordinator. As an application of our theory we construct explicitly some Hilbert space valued versions of Lévy processes which are popular in the univariate and multivariate case. In particular, we define a normal inverse Gaussian Lévy process in Hilbert space as a subordination of a Hilbert space valued Wiener process by an inverse Gaussian Lévy process. The resulting process has the property that at each time all its finite dimensional projections are multivariate normal inverse Gaussian distributed as introduced in Rydberg(97).

math.PR↗