arXiv subjects

Paul Lasky

Publications and source records attributed to Paul Lasky.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

$\texttt{BilbyFlow}$: user-friendly neural posterior estimation for gravitational-wave astronomy

Bayesian inference plays a central role in the new field of gravitational-wave astronomy. However, traditional Bayesian inference with stochastic samplers is computationally expensive, taking hours to days per event. Transformative changes are therefore required to enable the science of next-generation observatories whose event rates and signal-to-noise ratios will increase significantly over the current generation. Recent work has shown that neural posterior estimation (NPE) is a promising path forward. A neural net is trained to approximate the posterior distribution of gravitational-wave parameters, allowing generation of posterior samples in a fraction of the time required by stochastic samplers. In this work, we introduce $\texttt{BilbyFlow}$, which harnesses the power of NPE in the popular $\texttt{Bilby}$ code suite. We use $\texttt{BilbyFlow}$ to analyze a subset of 38 high-mass events from the third LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC-3). For 29 events (76\%), we obtained an importance-sampling efficiency $>$1%, allowing us to produce reliable posterior distributions within 3 min - 1.5 hours. For the other events, with importance-sampling efficiency $\ll$1%, the run time can be as long as 35 hours. We achieve a median importance-sampling efficiency of 7%, which is roughly comparable to the $\texttt{DINGO}$ package. We aim to significantly improve this efficiency with further development to make the runtime more reliably $O(\text{min})$. $\texttt{BilbyFlow}$ is open source and $\texttt{pip}$-installable.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

GRBs and Relativistic Transients in the 2040s

Relativistic transients such as gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), jetted tidal disruption events, luminous fast blue optical transients, and fast X-ray transients, represent the brightest explosions in the Universe and serve dual roles as laboratories for extreme physics and as cosmic lighthouses probing the earliest epochs of the Universe. The 2040s will bring transformative capabilities: wide-field optical surveys discovering tens of thousands of optical transients nightly, proposed high-energy missions like THESEUS providing 10-100x improved high-energy monitoring, and third-generation gravitational wave detectors identifying $\mathcal{O}(10^5)$ compact object mergers annually, many accompanied by relativistic jets. This industrial-scale discovery rate will enable population studies addressing fundamental questions such as jet launching mechanisms, nucleosynthesis, the first stars, and how progenitor environments shape these transients across cosmic time. However, realizing this science requires overcoming a critical bottleneck: these transients evolve on timescales of seconds to days, with their physics encoded in rapidly-changing multi-wavelength signatures demanding immediate spectroscopic characterization down to m ~ 25. Current facilities, optimized for classical/queue scheduling, do not provide the rapid, flexible, multi-target response necessary for industrial-scale follow-up. This white paper demonstrates that without a dedicated large-aperture (10-30 m effective collecting area) time-domain facility with robotic scheduling and optical-NIR spectroscopic capabilities, the transformative potential of relativistic transient science in the 2040s will be considerably limited.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

The birth mass function of neutron stars

The birth mass function of neutron stars encodes rich information about supernova explosions, double star evolution, and properties of matter under extreme conditions. To date, it has remained poorly constrained by observations, however. Applying probabilistic corrections to account for mass accreted by recycled pulsars in binary systems to mass measurements of 90 neutron stars, we find that the birth masses of neutron stars can be described by a unimodal distribution that smoothly turns on at $1.1 M_{\odot}$, peaks at $1.27 M_{\odot}$, before declining as a steep power law. Such a ``turn-on" power-law distribution is strongly favoured against the widely-adopted empirical double-Gaussian model at the $3 \sigma$ level. The power-law shape may be inherited from the initial mass function of massive stars, but the relative dearth of massive neutron stars implies that single stars with initial masses greater than $\approx 18 M_{\odot}$ do not form neutron stars, in agreement with the absence of massive red supergiant progenitors to supernovae.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

Bayesian inference for gravitational waves from binary neutron star mergers in third-generation observatories

Third-generation (3G) gravitational-wave detectors will observe thousands of coalescing neutron star binaries with unprecedented fidelity. Extracting the highest precision science from these signals is expected to be challenging owing to both high signal-to-noise ratios and long-duration signals. We demonstrate that current Bayesian inference paradigms can be extended to the analysis of binary neutron star signals without breaking the computational bank. We construct reduced order models for $\sim 90\,\mathrm{minute}$ long gravitational-wave signals, covering the observing band ($5-2048\,\mathrm{Hz}$), speeding up inference by a factor of $\sim 1.3\times 10^4$ compared to the calculation times without reduced order models. The reduced order models incorporate key physics including the effects of tidal deformability, amplitude modulation due to the Earth's rotation, and spin-induced orbital precession. We show how reduced order modeling can accelerate inference on data containing multiple, overlapping gravitational-wave signals, and determine the speedup as a function of the number of overlapping signals. Thus, we conclude that Bayesian inference is computationally tractable for the long-lived, overlapping, high signal-to-noise-ratio events present in 3G observatories.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2021

The Memory Remains (Undetected): Updates from the Second LIGO/Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog

The LIGO and Virgo observatories have reported 39 new gravitational-wave detections during the first part of the third observation run, bringing the total to 50. Most of these new detections are consistent with binary black-hole coalescences, making them suitable targets to search for gravitational-wave memory, a non-linear effect of general relativity. We extend a method developed in previous publications to analyse these events to determine a Bayes factor comparing the memory hypothesis to the no-memory hypothesis. Specifically, we calculate Bayes factors using two waveform models with higher-order modes that allow us to analyse events with extreme mass ratios and precessing spins, both of which have not been possible before. Depending on the waveform model we find a combined $\ln \mathrm{BF}_{\mathrm{mem}} = 0.024$ or $\ln \mathrm{BF}_{\mathrm{mem}} = 0.049$ in favour of memory. This result is consistent with recent predictions that indicate $\mathcal{O}(2000)$ binary black-hole detections will be required to confidently establish the presence or absence of memory.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2020

Searching for anisotropy in the distribution of binary black hole mergers

The standard model of cosmology is underpinned by the assumption of the statistical isotropy of the Universe. Observations of the cosmic microwave background, galaxy distributions, and supernovae, among other media, support the assumption of isotropy at scales $\gtrsim 100$\,Mpc. The recent detections of gravitational waves from merging stellar-mass binary black holes provide a new probe of anisotropy; complementary and independent of all other probes of the matter distribution in the Universe. We present an analysis using a spherical harmonic model to determine the level of anisotropy in the first LIGO/Virgo transient catalog. We find that the ten binary black hole mergers within the first transient catalog are consistent with an isotropic distribution. We carry out a study of simulated events to assess the prospects for future probes of anisotropy. Within a single year of operation, third-generation gravitational-wave observatories will probe anisotropies with an angular scale of $\sim36^\circ$ at the level of $\lesssim0.1\%$.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2020

Ground Based Gravitational Wave Astronomy in the Asian Region

The current gravitational wave detectors have identified a surprising population of heavy stellar mass black holes, and an even larger population of coalescing neutron stars. The first observations have led to many dramatic discoveries and the confirmation of general relativity in very strong gravitational fields. The future of gravitational wave astronomy looks bright, especially if additional detectors with greater sensitivity, broader bandwidth, and better global coverage can be implemented. The first discoveries add impetus to gravitational wave detectors designed to detect in the nHz, mHz and kHz frequency bands. This paper reviews the century-long struggle that led to the recent discoveries, and reports on designs and possibilities for future detectors. The benefits of future detectors in the Asian region are discussed, including analysis of the benefits of a detector located in Australia.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2019

Ground-Based Gravitational-Wave Astronomy in Australia: 2019 White Paper

The past four years have seen a scientific revolution through the birth of a new field: gravitational-wave astronomy. The first detection of gravitational waves---recognised by the 2017 Nobel Prize in Physics---provided unprecedented tests of general relativity while unveiling a previously unknown class of massive black holes, thirty times more massive than the Sun. The subsequent detection of gravitational waves from a merging binary neutron star confirmed the hypothesised connection between binary neutron stars and short gamma-ray bursts while providing an independent measurement of the expansion of the Universe. The discovery enabled precision measurement of the speed of gravity while shedding light on the origin of heavy elements. At the time of writing, the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) and its European partner, Virgo, have published the detection of eleven gravitational-wave events. New, not-yet-published detections are announced on a nearly weekly basis. This fast-growing catalogue of gravitational-wave transients is expected to yield insights into a number of topics, from the equation of state of matter at supra-nuclear densities to the fate of massive stars. The science potential of 3G observatories is enormous, enabling measurements of gravitational waves from the edge of the Universe and precise determination of the neutron star equation of state. Australia is well-positioned to help develop the required technology. The Mid-term Review for the Decadal plan for Australian astronomy 2016-2025 should consider investment in a scoping study for an Australian Gravitational-Wave Pathfinder that develops and validates core technologies required for the global 3G detector network.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2019

Ultra-relativistic astrophysics using multi-messenger observations of double neutron stars with LISA and the SKA

Recent work highlights that tens of Galactic double neutron stars are likely to be detectable in the millihertz band of the space-based gravitational-wave observatory, LISA. Kyutoku and Nishino point out that some of these binaries might be detectable as radio pulsars using the Square Kilometer Array (SKA). We point out that the joint LISA+SKA detection of a $f_\text{gw}\gtrsim$1 mHz binary, corresponding to a binary period of $\lesssim$400 s, would enable precision measurements of ultra-relativistic phenomena. We show that, given plausible assumptions, multi-messenger observations of ultra-relativistic binaries can be used to constrain the neutron star equation of state with remarkable fidelity. It may be possible to measure the mass-radius relation with a precision of $\approx$0.2% after 10 yr of observations with the SKA. Such a measurement would be roughly an order of magnitude more precise than possible with other proposed observations. We summarize some of the other remarkable science made possible with multi-messenger observations of millihertz binaries, and discuss the prospects for the detection of such objects.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

Exploring the sensitivity of gravitational wave detectors to neutron star physics

The physics of neutron stars can be studied with gravitational waves emitted from coalescing binary systems. Tidal effects become significant during the last few orbits and can be visible in the gravitational-wave spectrum above 500 Hz. After the merger, the neutron star remnant oscillates at frequencies above 1 kHz and can collapse into a black hole. Gravitational-wave detectors with a sensitivity of ~10^{-24} strain/sqHz at 2-4 kHz can observe these oscillations from a source which is ~100 Mpc away. The current observatories, such as LIGO and Virgo, are limited by shot noise at high frequencies and have a sensitivity of > 2 * 10^{-23} strain/sqHz at 3 kHz. In this paper, we propose an optical configuration of gravitational-wave detectors which can be set up in present facilities using the current interferometer topology. This scheme has a potential to reach 7 * 10^{-25} strain/sqHz at 2.5 kHz without compromising the detector sensitivity to black hole binaries. We argue that the proposed instruments have a potential to detect similar amount of post-merger neutron star oscillations as the next generation detectors, such as Cosmic Explorer and Einstein Telescope. We also optimise the arm length of the future detectors for neutron star physics and find that the optimal arm length is ~20 km. These instruments have the potential to observe neutron star post-merger oscillations at a rate of ~30 events per year with a signal-to-noise ratio of 5 or more.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2017

Challenges testing the no-hair theorem with gravitational waves

General relativity's no-hair theorem states that isolated astrophysical black holes are described by only two numbers: mass and spin. As a consequence, there are strict relationships between the frequency and damping time of the different modes of a perturbed Kerr black hole. Testing the no-hair theorem has been a longstanding goal of gravitational-wave astronomy. The recent detection of gravitational waves from black hole mergers would seem to make such tests imminent. We investigate how constraints on black hole ringdown parameters scale with the loudness of the ringdown signal---subject to the constraint that the post-merger remnant must be allowed to settle into a perturbative, Kerr-like state. In particular, we require that---for a given detector---the gravitational waveform predicted by numerical relativity is indistinguishable from an exponentially damped sine after time $t^\text{cut}$. By requiring the post-merger remnant to settle into such a perturbative state, we find that confidence intervals for ringdown parameters do not necessarily shrink with louder signals. In at least some cases, more sensitive measurements probe later times without necessarily providing tighter constraints on ringdown frequencies and damping times. Preliminary investigations are unable to explain this result in terms of a numerical relativity artifact.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2015

Persistent crust-core spin lag in neutron stars

It is commonly believed that the magnetic field threading a neutron star provides the ultimate mechanism (on top of fluid viscosity) for enforcing long-term corotation between the slowly spun down solid crust and the liquid core. We show that this argument fails for axisymmetric magnetic fields with closed field lines in the core, the commonly used `twisted torus' field being the most prominent example. The failure of such magnetic fields to enforce global crust-core corotation leads to the development of a persistent spin lag between the core region occupied by the closed field lines and the rest of the crust and core. We discuss the repercussions of this spin lag for the evolution of the magnetic field, suggesting that, in order for a neutron star to settle to a stable state of crust-core corotation, the bulk of the toroidal field component should be deposited into the crust soon after the neutron star's birth.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2015

Detecting gravitational waves from mountains on neutron stars in the Advanced Detector Era

Rapidly rotating Neutron Stars (NSs) in Low Mass X-ray Binaries (LMXBs) are thought to be interesting sources of Gravitational Waves (GWs) for current and next generation ground based detectors, such as Advanced LIGO and the Einstein Telescope. The main reason is that many of the NS in these systems appear to be spinning well below their Keplerian breakup frequency, and it has been suggested that torques associated with GW emission may be setting the observed spin period. This assumption has been used extensively in the literature to assess the strength of the likely gravitational wave signal. There is now, however, a significant amount of theoretical and observation work that suggests that this may not be the case, and that GW emission is unlikely to be setting the spin equilibrium period in many systems. In this paper we take a different starting point and predict the GW signal strength for two physical mechanisms that are likely to be at work in LMXBs: crustal mountains due to thermal asymmetries and magnetically confined mountains. We find that thermal crustal mountains in transient LMXBs are unlikely to lead to detectable GW emission, while persistent systems are good candidates for detection by Advanced LIGO and by the Einstein Telescope. Detection prospects are pessimistic for the magnetic mountain case, unless the NS has a buried magnetic field of $B\approx 10^{12}$ G, well above the typically inferred exterior dipole fields of these objects. Nevertheless, if a system were to be detected by a GW observatory, cyclotron resonant scattering features in the X-ray emission could be used to distinguish between the two different scenarios.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2014

The detection efficiency of on-axis short gamma ray burst optical afterglows triggered by aLIGO/Virgo

Assuming neutron star (NS) or neutron star/stellar-mass black hole (BH) mergers as progenitors of the short gamma ray bursts, we derive and demonstrate a simple analysis tool for modelling the efficiency of recovering on-axis optical afterglows triggered by a candidate gravitational wave event detected by the Advanced LIGO and Virgo network. The coincident detection efficiency has been evaluated for different classes of operating telescopes using observations of gamma ray bursts. We show how the efficiency depends on the luminosity distribution of the optical afterglows, the telescope features, and the sky localisation of gravitational wave triggers. We estimate a plausible optical afterglow and gravitational wave coincidence rate of 1 yr$^{-1}$ (0.1 yr$^{-1}$) for NS-NS (NS-BH), and how this rate is scaled down in detection efficiency by the time it takes to image the gravitational wave sky localization and the limiting magnitude of the telescopes. For NS-NS (NS-BH) we find maximum detection efficiencies of $>80%$ when the total imaging time is less than 200 min (80 min) and the limiting magnitude fainter than 20 (21). We show that relatively small telescopes $(m<18)$ can achieve similar detection efficiencies to meter class facilities $(m<20)$ with similar fields of view, only if the less sensitive instruments can respond to the trigger and image the field within 10-15 min. The inclusion of LIGO India into the gravitational wave observatory network will significantly reduce imaging time for telescopes with limiting magnitudes $\sim20$ but with modest fields of view. An optimal coincidence search requires a global network of sensitive and fast response wide field instruments that could effectively image relatively large gravitational-wave sky localisations and produce transient candidates for further photometric and spectroscopic follow-up.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2014

Cyclotron line signatures of thermal and magnetic mountains from accreting neutron stars

Cyclotron resonance scattering features (CRSFs) in the X-ray spectrum of an accreting neutron star are modified differently by accretion mounds sustained by magnetic and thermocompositional gradients. It is shown that one can discriminate, in principle, between mounds of different physical origins by studying how the line energy, width, and depth of a CRSF depend on the orientation of the neutron star, accreted mass, surface temperature distribution, and equation of state. CRSF signatures including gravitational light bending are computed for both phase-resolved and phase-averaged spectra on the basis of self-consistent Grad-Shafranov mound equilibria satisfying a global flux-freezing constraint. The prospects of multimessenger X-ray and gravitational-wave observations with future instruments are canvassed briefly.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2009

Shape, shear & flexion: An analytic flexion formalism for realistic mass profiles

Flexion is a non-linear gravitational lensing effect that arises from gradients in the convergence and shear across an image. We derive a formalism that describes non-linear gravitational lensing by a circularly symmetric lens in the thin-lens approximation. This provides us with relatively simple expressions for first- and second-flexion in terms of only the surface density and projected mass distribution of the lens. We give details of exact lens models, in particular providing flexion calculations for a Sersic-law profile, which has become increasingly popular over recent years. We further provide a single resource for the analytic forms of convergence, shear, first- and second-flexion for the following mass distributions: a point mass, singular isothermal sphere (SIS); Navarro-Frenk-White (NFW) profile; Sersic-law profile. We quantitatively compare these mass distributions and show that the convergence and first-flexion are better indicators of the Sersic shape parameter, while for the concentration of NFW profiles the shear and second-flexion terms are preferred.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2008

Pressure gradients, shell crossing singularities and acoustic oscillations - application to inhomogeneous cosmological models

Inhomogeneous cosmological models have recently become a very interesting alternative to standard cosmology. This is because these models are able to fit cosmological observations without the need for dark energy. However, due to inhomogeneity and pressure-less matter content, these models can suffer from shell crossing singularities. These singularities occur when two shell of dust collide with each other leading to infinite values of the density. In this Letter we show that if inhomogeneous pressure is included then these singularities can be prevented from occurring over the period of structure formation. Thus, a simple incorporation of a gradient of pressure allows for more comprehensive studies of inhomogeneous cosmological models and their application to cosmology.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2008

Uniting Old Stellar Systems: From Globular Clusters to Giant Ellipticals

Here we examine the relationship between the virial and stellar mass for a range of old stellar systems, from GCs to giant ellipticals, and including such Intermediate Mass Objects (IMOs). Improvements on previous work in this area include the use of (i) near-infrared magnitudes from the 2MASS survey, (ii) aperture corrections to velocity dispersions, (iii) homogeneous half light radii and (iv) accounting for the effects of non-homology in galaxies. We find a virial-to-stellar mass relation that ranges from ~10$^4$ M_o systems (GCs) to ~10$^11$ M_o systems (elliptical galaxies). The lack of measured velocity dispersions for dwarf ellipticals with -16 > M_K > -18 (~10$^8$ M_o) currently inhibits our ability to determine how, or indeed if, these galaxies connect continuously with GCs in terms of their virial-to-stellar mass ratios. We find elliptical galaxies to have roughly equal fractions of dark and stellar matter within a virial radius; only in the most massive (greater than 10$^11$ M_o) ellipticals does dark matter dominate the virial mass. Although the IMOs reveal slightly higher virial-to-stellar mass ratios than lower mass GCs, this may simply reflect our limited understanding of their IMF (and hence their stellar mass-to-light ratios) or structural properties. We argue that most of these intermediate mass objects are a natural extension of the GC sequence to higher masses, i.e. IMOs are essentially massive star clusters. [Abridged].

astro-ph↗