Paul Ntegeka | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Bayesian Negative Binomial Regression of Afrobeats Chart Persistence

Afrobeats songs compete for attention on streaming platforms, where chart visibility can influence both revenue and cultural impact. This paper examines whether collaborations help songs remain on the charts longer, using daily Nigeria Spotify Top 200 data from 2024. Each track is summarized by the number of days it appears in the Top 200 during the year and its total annual streams in Nigeria. A Bayesian negative binomial regression is applied, with days on chart as the outcome and collaboration status (solo versus multi-artist) and log total streams as predictors. This approach is well suited for overdispersed count data and allows the effect of collaboration to be interpreted while controlling for overall popularity. Posterior inference is conducted using Markov chain Monte Carlo, and results are assessed using rate ratios, posterior probabilities, and predictive checks. The findings indicate that, after accounting for total streams, collaboration tracks tend to spend slightly fewer days on the chart than comparable solo tracks.

eess.AS↗

arXiv2025

Prediction of Spotify Chart Success Using Audio and Streaming Features

Spotify's streaming charts offer a real-time lens into music popularity, driving discovery, playlists, and even revenue potential. Understanding what influences a song's rise in ranks on these charts-especially early on-can guide marketing efforts, investment decisions, and even artistic direction. In this project, we developed a classification pipeline to predict a song's chart success based on its musical characteristics and early engagement data. Using all 2024 U.S. Top 200 Spotify Daily Charts and the Spotify Web API, we built a dataset containing both metadata and audio features for 14,639 unique songs. The project was structured in two phases. First, we benchmarked four models: Logistic Regression, K Nearest Neighbors, Random Forest, and XGBoost-using a standard train-test split. In the second phase, we incorporated cross-validation, hyperparameter tuning, and detailed class-level evaluation to ensure robustness. Tree-based models consistently outperformed the rest, with Random Forest and XGBoost achieving macro F1-scores near 0.95 and accuracy around 97%. Even when stream count and rank history were excluded, models trained solely on audio attributes retained predictive power. These findings validate the potential of audio-based modeling in A&R scouting, playlist optimization, and hit forecasting-long before a track reaches critical mass.

cs.SD↗