arXiv subjects

Paul S. Ray

Publications and source records attributed to Paul S. Ray.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 12.5-year Data Set: Chromatic Noise Characterization & Mitigation with Time-Domain Kernels

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) have recently entered the detection era, quickly moving beyond the goal of simply improving sensitivity at the lowest frequencies for the sake of observing the stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB), and focusing on its accurate spectral characterization. While all PTA collaborations around the world use Fourier-domain Gaussian processes to model the GWB and intrinsic long time-correlated (red) noise, techniques to model the time-correlated radio frequency-dependent (chromatic) processes have varied from collaboration to collaboration. Here we test a new class of models for PTA data, Gaussian processes based on time-domain kernels that model the statistics of the chromatic processes starting from the covariance matrix. As we will show, these models can be effectively equivalent to Fourier-domain models in mitigating chromatic noise. This work presents a method for Bayesian model selection across the various choices of kernel as well as deterministic chromatic models for non-stationary chromatic events and the solar wind. As PTAs turn towards high frequency (>1/yr) sensitivity, the size of the basis used to model these processes will need to increase, and these time-domain models present some computational efficiencies compared to Fourier-domain models.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15-Year Data Set: Improved Timing Precision With VLBI Astrometric Priors

Accurate pulsar astrometric estimates play an essential role in almost all high-precision pulsar timing experiments. Traditional pulsar timing techniques refine these estimates by including them as free parameters when fitting a model to observed pulse time-of-arrival measurements. However, reliable sub-milliarcsecond astrometric estimations require years of observations and, even then, power from red noise can be inadvertently absorbed into astrometric parameter fits, biasing the resulting estimations and reducing our sensitivity to red noise processes, including gravitational waves (GWs). In this work, we seek to mitigate these shortcomings by using pulsar astrometric estimates derived from Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) as priors for the timing fit. First, we calibrated a frame tie to account for the offsets between the reference frames used in VLBI and timing. Then, we used the VLBI-informed priors and timing-based likelihoods of several astrometric solutions consistent with both techniques to obtain a maximum-posterior astrometric solution. We found offsets between our results and the timing-based astrometric solutions, which, if real, would lead to absorption of spectral power at frequencies of interest for single-source GW searches. However, we do not find significant power absorption due to astrometric fitting at the low-frequency domain of the GW background.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15 Yr Data Set: Removing Pulsars One by One from the Pulsar Timing Array

Evidence has emerged for a stochastic signal correlated among 67 pulsars within the 15-year pulsar-timing data set compiled by the NANOGrav collaboration. Similar signals have been found in data from the European, Indian, Parkes, and Chinese PTAs. This signal has been interpreted as indicative of the presence of a nanohertz stochastic gravitational wave background. To explore the internal consistency of this result we investigate how the recovered signal strength changes as we remove the pulsars one by one from the data set. We calculate the signal strength using the (noise-marginalized) optimal statistic, a frequentist metric designed to measure correlated excess power in the residuals of the arrival times of the radio pulses. We identify several features emerging from this analysis that were initially unexpected. The significance of these features, however, can only be assessed by comparing the real data to synthetic data sets. After conducting identical analyses on simulated data sets, we do not find anything inconsistent with the presence of a stochastic gravitational wave background in the NANOGrav 15-year data. The methodologies developed here can offer additional tools for application to future, more sensitive data sets. While this analysis provides an internal consistency check of the NANOGrav results, it does not eliminate the necessity for additional investigations that could identify potential systematics or uncover unmodeled physical phenomena in the data.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15-year Gravitational-Wave Background Methods

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) use an array of millisecond pulsars to search for gravitational waves in the nanohertz regime in pulse time of arrival data. This paper presents rigorous tests of PTA methods, examining their consistency across the relevant parameter space. We discuss updates to the 15-year isotropic gravitational-wave background analyses and their corresponding code representations. Descriptions of the internal structure of the flagship algorithms Enterprise and PTMCMCSampler are given to facilitate understanding of the PTA likelihood structure, how models are built, and what methods are currently used in sampling the high-dimensional PTA parameter space. We introduce a novel version of the PTA likelihood that uses a two-step marginalization procedure that performs much faster in gravitational wave searches, reducing the required resources facilitating the computation of Bayes factors via thermodynamic integration and sampling a large number of realizations for computing Bayesian false-alarm probabilities. We perform stringent tests of consistency and correctness of the Bayesian and frequentist analysis methods. For the Bayesian analysis, we test prior recovery, simulation recovery, and Bayes factors. For the frequentist analysis, we test that the optimal statistic, when modified to account for a non-negligible gravitational-wave background, accurately recovers the amplitude of the background. We also summarize recent advances and tests performed on the optimal statistic in the literature from both GWB detection and parameter estimation perspectives. The tests presented here validate current analyses of PTA data.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

The Anomalous Acceleration of PSR J2043+1711: Long-Period Orbital Companion or Stellar Flyby?

Based on the rate of change of its orbital period, PSR J2043+1711 has a substantial peculiar acceleration of 3.5 $\pm$ 0.8 mm/s/yr, which deviates from the acceleration predicted by equilibrium Milky Way models at a $4σ$ level. The magnitude of the peculiar acceleration is too large to be explained by disequilibrium effects of the Milky Way interacting with orbiting dwarf galaxies ($\sim$1 mm/s/yr), and too small to be caused by period variations due to the pulsar being a redback. We identify and examine two plausible causes for the anomalous acceleration: a stellar flyby, and a long-period orbital companion. We identify a main-sequence star in \textit{Gaia} DR3 and Pan-STARRS DR2 with the correct mass, distance, and on-sky position to potentially explain the observed peculiar acceleration. However, the star and the pulsar system have substantially different proper motions, indicating that they are not gravitationally bound. However, it is possible that this is an unrelated star that just happens to be located near J2043+1711 along our line of sight (chance probability of 1.6\%). Therefore, we also constrain possible orbital parameters for a circumbinary companion in a hierarchical triple system with J2043+1711; the changes in the spindown rate of the pulsar are consistent with an outer object that has an orbital period of 80 kyr, a companion mass of 0.3 $M_\odot$ (indicative of a white dwarf or low-mass star), and a semi-major axis of 2000 AU. Continued timing and/or future faint optical observations of J2043+1711 may eventually allow us to differentiate between these scenarios.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15 yr data set: Posterior predictive checks for gravitational-wave detection with pulsar timing arrays

Pulsar-timing-array experiments have reported evidence for a stochastic background of nanohertz gravitational waves consistent with the signal expected from a population of supermassive--black-hole binaries. Their analyses assume power-law spectra for intrinsic pulsar noise and for the background, as well as a Hellings--Downs cross-correlation pattern among the gravitational-wave--induced residuals across pulsars. These assumptions may not be realized in actuality. We test them in the NANOGrav 15 yr data set using Bayesian posterior predictive checks. After fitting our fiducial model to real data, we generate a population of simulated data-set replications. We use the replications to assess whether the optimal-statistic significance, inter-pulsar correlations, and spectral coefficients are extreme. We recover Hellings--Downs correlations in simulated data sets at significance levels consistent with the correlations measured in the NANOGrav 15 yr data set. A similar test on spectral coefficients shows that their values in real data are not extreme compared to their distributions across replications. We also evaluate the evidence for the stochastic background using posterior-predictive versions of the frequentist optimal statistic and of Bayesian model comparison, and find comparable significance (3.2 $σ$ and 3 $σ$ respectively) to what was previously reported for the standard statistics. We conclude with novel visualizations of the reconstructed gravitational waveforms that enter the residuals for each pulsar. Our analysis strengthens confidence in the identification and characterization of the gravitational-wave background.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Search for Gravitational Wave Memory

We present the results of a search for nonlinear gravitational wave memory in the NANOGrav 15-year data set. We find no significant evidence for memory signals in the dataset, with a maximum Bayes factor of 3.1 in favor of a model including memory. We therefore place upper limits on the strain of potential gravitational wave memory events as a function of sky location and observing epoch. We find upper limits that are not always more constraining than previous NANOGrav results. We show that it is likely due to the increase in common red noise between the 12.5-year and 15-year NANOGrav datasets.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Running of the Spectral Index

The NANOGrav 15-year data provides compelling evidence for a stochastic gravitational-wave (GW) background at nanohertz frequencies. The simplest model-independent approach to characterizing the frequency spectrum of this signal consists in a simple power-law fit involving two parameters: an amplitude A and a spectral index γ. In this paper, we consider the next logical step beyond this minimal spectral model, allowing for a running (i.e., logarithmic frequency dependence) of the spectral index, γ_run(f) = γ+ β\ln(f/f_ref). We fit this running-power-law (RPL) model to the NANOGrav 15-year data and perform a Bayesian model comparison with the minimal constant-power-law (CPL) model, which results in a 95% credible interval for the parameter βconsistent with no running, β\in [-0.80,2.96], and an inconclusive Bayes factor, B(RPL vs. CPL) = 0.69 +- 0.01. We thus conclude that, at present, the minimal CPL model still suffices to adequately describe the NANOGrav signal; however, future data sets may well lead to a measurement of nonzero β. Finally, we interpret the RPL model as a description of primordial GWs generated during cosmic inflation, which allows us to combine our results with upper limits from big-bang nucleosynthesis, the cosmic microwave background, and LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

PSR J1947-1120: A New Huntsman Millisecond Pulsar Binary

We present the discovery of PSR J1947-1120, a new huntsman millisecond pulsar with a red giant companion star in a 10.3 d orbit. This pulsar was found via optical, X-ray, and radio follow-up of the previously unassociated gamma-ray source 4FGL J1947.6-1121. PSR J1947-1120 is the second confirmed pulsar in the huntsman class and establishes this as a bona fide subclass of millisecond pulsar. We use MESA models to show that huntsman pulsars can be naturally explained as neutron star binaries whose secondaries are currently in the "red bump" region of the red giant branch, temporarily underfilling their Roche lobes and hence halting mass transfer. Huntsman pulsars offer a new view of the formation of typical millisecond pulsars, allowing novel constraints on the efficiency of mass transfer and recycling at an intermediate stage in the process.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Pulse Profile Variability of PSR J1022+1001 in NANOGrav Data

Pulse profile stability is a central assumption of standard pulsar timing methods. Thus, it is important for pulsar timing array experiments such as the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) to account for any pulse profile variability present in their data sets. We show that in the NANOGrav 15-yr data set, the integrated pulse profile of PSR J1022+1001 as seen by the Arecibo radio telescope at 430, 1380, and 2030 MHz varies considerably in its shape from observation to observation. We investigate the possibility that this is due to the "ideal feed assumption" (IFA), on which NANOGrav's routine polarization calibration procedure relies. PSR J1022+1001 is $\sim 90\%$ polarized in one pulse profile component, and also has significant levels of circular polarization. Time-dependent deviations in the feed's polarimetric response (PR) could cause mixing between the intensity I and the other Stokes parameters, leading to the observed variability. We calibrate the PR using a mixture of Measurement Equation Modeling and Measurement Equation Template Matching techniques. The resulting profiles are no less variable than those calibrated using the IFA method, nor do they provide an improvement in the timing quality of this pulsar. We observe the pulse shape in 25-MHz bandwidths to vary consistently across the band, which cannot be explained by interstellar scintillation in combination with profile evolution with frequency. Instead, we favor phenomena intrinsic to the pulsar as the cause.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Harmonic Analysis of the Pulsar Angular Correlations

Pulsar timing array observations have found evidence for an isotropic gravitational wave background with the Hellings-Downs angular correlations, expected from general relativity. This interpretation hinges on the measured shape of the angular correlations, which is predominately quadrupolar under general relativity. Here we explore a more flexible parameterization: we expand the angular correlations into a sum of Legendre polynomials and use a Bayesian analysis to constrain their coefficients with the 15-year pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). When including Legendre polynomials with multipoles $\ell \geq 2$, we only find a significant signal in the quadrupole with an amplitude consistent with general relativity and non-zero at the $\sim 95\%$ confidence level and a Bayes factor of 200. When we include multipoles $\ell \leq 1$, the Bayes factor evidence for quadrupole correlations decreases by more than an order of magnitude due to evidence for a monopolar signal at approximately 4 nHz which has also been noted in previous analyses of the NANOGrav 15-year data. Further work needs to be done in order to better characterize the properties of this monopolar signal and its effect on the evidence for quadrupolar angular correlations.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

A NICER View of PSR J1231$-$1411: A Complex Case

Recent constraints on neutron star mass and radius have advanced our understanding of the equation of state (EOS) of cold dense matter. Some of them have been obtained by modeling the pulses of three millisecond X-ray pulsars observed by the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER). Here, we present a Bayesian parameter inference for a fourth pulsar, PSR J1231$-$1411, using the same technique with NICER and XMM-Newton data. When applying a broad mass-inclination prior from radio timing measurements and the emission region geometry model that can best explain the data, we find likely converged results only when using a limited radius prior. If limiting the radius to be consistent with the previous observational constraints and EOS analyses, we infer the radius to be $12.6 \pm 0.3$ km and the mass to be $1.04_{-0.03}^{+0.05}$ $M_\odot$, each reported as the posterior credible interval bounded by the $16\,\%$ and $84\,\%$ quantiles. If using an uninformative prior but limited between $10$ and $14$ km, we find otherwise similar results, but $R_{\mathrm{eq}} = 13.5_{-0.5}^{+0.3}$ km for the radius. In both cases, we find a nonantipodal hot region geometry where one emitting spot is at the equator or slightly above, surrounded by a large colder region, and where a noncircular hot region lies close to southern rotational pole. If using a wider radius prior, we only find solutions that fit the data significantly worse. We discuss the challenges in finding the better fitting solutions, possibly related to the weak interpulse feature in the pulse profile.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Looking for Signs of Discreteness in the Gravitational-wave Background

The cosmic merger history of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) is expected to produce a low-frequency gravitational wave background (GWB). Here we investigate how signs of the discrete nature of this GWB can manifest in pulsar timing arrays through excursions from, and breaks in, the expected $f_{\mathrm{GW}}^{-2/3}$ power-law of the GWB strain spectrum. To do this, we create a semi-analytic SMBHB population model, fit to NANOGrav's 15 yr GWB amplitude, and with 1,000 realizations we study the populations' characteristic strain and residual spectra. Comparing our models to the NANOGrav 15 yr spectrum, we find two interesting excursions from the power-law. The first, at $2 \; \mathrm{nHz}$, is below our GWB realizations with $p$-value significance $p = 0.05$ to $0.06$ ($\approx 1.8 σ- 1.9 σ$). The second, at $16 \; \mathrm{nHz}$, is above our GWB realizations with $p = 0.04$ to $0.15$ ($\approx 1.4 σ- 2.1 σ$). We explore the properties of a loud SMBHB which could cause such an excursion. Our simulations also show that the expected number of SMBHBs decreases by three orders of magnitude, from $\sim 10^6$ to $\sim 10^3$, between $2\; \mathrm{nHz}$ and $20 \; \mathrm{nHz}$. This causes a break in the strain spectrum as the stochasticity of the background breaks down at $26^{+28}_{-19} \; \mathrm{nHz}$, consistent with predictions pre-dating GWB measurements. The diminished GWB signal from SMBHBs at frequencies above the $26~\mathrm{nHz}$ break opens a window for PTAs to detect continuous GWs from individual SMBHBs or GWs from the early universe.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

The Radius of the High-mass Pulsar PSR J0740+6620 with 3.6 yr of NICER Data

We report an updated analysis of the radius, mass, and heated surface regions of the massive pulsar PSR J0740+6620 using Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) data from 2018 September 21 to 2022 April 21, a substantial increase in data set size compared to previous analyses. Using a tight mass prior from radio timing measurements and jointly modeling the new NICER data with XMM-Newton data, the inferred equatorial radius and gravitational mass are $12.49_{-0.88}^{+1.28}$ km and $2.073_{-0.069}^{+0.069}$ $M_\odot$ respectively, each reported as the posterior credible interval bounded by the $16\,\%$ and $84\,\%$ quantiles, with an estimated systematic error $\lesssim 0.1$ km. This result was obtained using the best computationally feasible sampler settings providing a strong radius lower limit but a slightly more uncertain radius upper limit. The inferred radius interval is also close to the $R=12.76_{-1.02}^{+1.49}$ km obtained by Dittmann et al., when they require the radius to be less than $16$ km as we do. The results continue to disfavor very soft equations of state for dense matter, with $R<11.15$ km for this high-mass pulsar excluded at the $95\,\%$ probability. The results do not depend significantly on the assumed cross-calibration uncertainty between NICER and XMM-Newton. Using simulated data that resemble the actual observations, we also show that our pipeline is capable of recovering parameters for the inferred models reported in this paper.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

The STROBE-X Wide Field Monitor Instrument

The Wide Field Monitor (WFM) is one of the three instruments on the Spectroscopic Time-Resolving Observatory for Broadband Energy X-rays (STROBE-X) mission, which was proposed in response to the NASA 2023 call for a probe class mission. The WFM is a coded-mask camera system that would be the most scientifically capable wide-angle monitor ever flown. The field of view covers one third of the sky, to 50 percent mask coding, and the energy sensitivity is 2 to 50 keV. The WFM is designed to identify new X-ray transients and to capture spectral and timing changes in known sources with data of unprecedented quality. Science applications cover diverse classes, in including X-ray bursts that coincide with gravitational wave detections, gamma ray bursts and their transition from prompt emission to afterglow, subluminous GRBs that may signal shock breakout in supernovae, state transitions in accreting compact objects and their jets, bright flares in fast X-ray transients, accretion onset in transitional pulsars, and coronal flares from many types of active stars.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2024

STROBE-X Mission Overview

We give an overview of the science objectives and mission design of the Spectroscopic Time-Resolving Observatory for Broadband Energy X-rays (STROBE-X) observatory, which has been proposed as a NASA probe-class (~$1.5B) mission in response to the Astro2020 recommendation for an X-ray probe.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2024

Front-End ASIC for the STROBE-X HEMA and WFM Detectors: Concept and Design

This paper presents the NSX front-end ASIC, being developed to read charge signals from the HEMA and WFM X-ray detectors for the STROBE-X mission. The ASIC reads out signals from up to 64 anodes of linear Silicon Drift Detectors (SDDs). When unloaded, the ASIC channel has a charge resolution, expressed in Equivalent Noise Charge (ENC) of about 2.8 e-. Once connected to the SDD anode we anticipate, for the 80 keV energy range, a ENC of about 10.7 e- at a leakage current of 2 pA, which corresponds to a FWHM of about 145 eV at 6 keV once the Fano-limited statistics from charge generation in Si is included. The acquisition is event-triggered and, for events exceeding the threshold, the ASIC measures the peak amplitude and stores it in an analog memory for subsequent readout. The ASIC can also force the measurement of the sub-threshold channels neighboring the triggered channel, including the ones that belong to neighbor chips by using bi-directional differential inter-chip communication. Alternatively, the ASIC can measure the amplitudes of all channels at the time of the first detected peak. Additional features include a high-resolution option, channel power down and skip function, a low-noise pulse generator, a temperature sensor, and the monitoring of the channel analog output and trimmed threshold. The power consumption of the individual channel is ~590 $μ$W and, when including all shared circuits, it averages to ~670 $μ$W / channel.

physics.ins-det↗

arXiv2024

The STROBE-X Low Energy Modular Array (LEMA) Instrument

The Low Energy Modular Array (LEMA) is one of three instruments that compose the STROBE-X mission concept. The LEMA is a large effective-area, high throughput, non-imaging pointed instrument based on the X-ray Timing Instrument of the Neutron star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) mission. The LEMA is designed for spectral-timing measurements of a variety of celestial X-ray sources, providing a transformative increase in sensitivity to photons in the 0.2-12 keV energy range compared to past missions, with an effective area (at 1.5 keV) of 16,000 cm$^2$ and an energy resolution of 85 eV at 1 keV.

astro-ph.IM↗