arXiv subjects

Paul Shah

Publications and source records attributed to Paul Shah.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Supernovae Unite: Combining Pantheon+ and DES-SN5YR

We present the Hubble diagram and cosmological constraints resulting from the combination of the Pantheon+ and DES-SN5YR supernova (SN) samples, which we refer to as Unite. Unite updates Pantheon+, including methodology improvements that the DES sample enabled, and adds the new SN from the DES survey. This represents the most comprehensive and internally consistent SN Ia dataset available, consisting of 2884 likely type Ia supernovae. This work features consistent SN Ia modelling, sample selection, and bias corrections. We also redetermine host-galaxy stellar masses for over 98% of the sample using a consistent framework. Using Unite alone, for a flat universe with a cosmological constant (Flat-$\Lambda$CDM), we find $\Omega_{\rm m} = 0.310^{+0.012}_{-0.011}$. We further present constraints using the Unite sample combined with Cosmic Microwave Background and both DES and DESI Baryon Acoustic Oscillation data. We find strong evidence of tension between CMB measurements and the combined BAO and supernova datasets when fitting a model with constant dark energy equation of state ($w$), which is alleviated when allowing $w$ to vary with time. For a flat universe with dark energy that has a time-evolving equation of state parametrized by $w_0$ and $w_a$ we find $(\Omega_{\rm m},w_0,w_a) = (0.305\pm0.004,-0.861^{+0.044}_{-0.042},-0.60^{+0.17}_{-0.19})$ with a dark energy Figure of Merit of 315. This corresponds to a $\sim30\%$ reduction in the area of the $w_0-w_a$ confidence region relative to previous constraints from the combination of DES Y6, DESI-DR2, and CMB data (arXiv:2605.27221). The Bayesian evidence indicates only weak preference for time evolving dark energy, whereas frequentist analyses yield a preference over Flat-$\Lambda$CDM at a significance of $3.3\sigma$ ($3.1\sigma$) when using the maximum $\textit{a posteriori}$ probability (maximum likelihood).

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Probing Physics Beyond the Standard Model through Combined Analyses of Next-Generation Type Ia Supernova, CMB, and BAO Surveys

Observations of Type Ia supernovae (\sne), which probe the late Universe, together with baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) and the cosmic microwave background (CMB), which probe the intermediate and early epochs, provide complementary constraints on the expansion history of the Universe. In this work, we forecast constraints on dark energy and other extensions to the standard cosmological model by combining the SNIa sample expected from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), data from current and forthcoming CMB surveys, and BAO measurements from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). For the CMB, we use temperature, polarization, and lensing power spectra ($TT/EE/TE/\phi\phi$) from South Pole Telescope, the planned Advanced Simons Observatory, and a CMB-S4-like experiment. We derive constraints on $\Lambda {\rm CDM}$ and its extensions involving the dark energy equation of state parameters $(w_{0}, w_{a})$ and the sum of neutrino masses $\sum m_{\nu}$, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling framework. We find that the LSST Year-3 SNIa sample can improve upon the DES Year-5 dark energy constraints by a factor of $\times2-\times2.5$, with the gains driven primarily by the significantly higher SNIa density in the LSST sample. Similarly, DESI-DR3 shows up to a $\times1.8$ improvement on dark energy parameters over DR2, driven largely by the substantial increase in low-redshift sample. Combining CMB with LSST-Y3-SNIa and DESI-DR3-BAO yields $\sigma(w_{0}) = 0.028$ and $\sigma(w_{a}) = 0.11$ for $w_{0} w_{a} {\rm CDM}$ cosmology with the results being largely independent of the CMB dataset. The constraints weaken by 10%-30% when freeing $\sum m_{\nu}$ and spatial curvature. Moreover, the joint analysis of the three datasets can enable a $2-3\sigma$ detection of $\sum m_{\nu}$.

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arXiv2025

It's not $\sigma_8$ : constraining the non-linear matter power spectrum with the Dark Energy Survey Year-5 supernova sample

The weak gravitational lensing magnification of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) is sensitive to the matter power spectrum on scales $k>1 h$ Mpc$^{-1}$, making it unwise to interpret SNe Ia lensing in terms of power on linear scales. We compute the probability density function of SNe Ia magnification as a function of standard cosmological parameters, plus an empirical parameter $A_{\rm mod}$ which describes the suppression or enhancement of matter power on non-linear scales compared to a cold dark matter only model. While baryons are expected to enhance power on the scales relevant to SN Ia lensing, other physics such as neutrino masses or non-standard dark matter may suppress power. Using the Dark Energy Survey Year-5 sample, we find $A_{\rm mod} = 0.77^{+0.69}_{-0.40}$ (68\% credible interval around the median). Although the median is consistent with unity there are hints of power suppression, with $A_{\rm mod} < 1.09$ at 68\% credibility.

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arXiv2024

Constraints on compact objects from the Dark Energy Survey five-year supernova sample

Gravitational lensing magnification of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) allows information to be obtained about the distribution of matter on small scales. In this paper, we derive limits on the fraction $\alpha$ of the total matter density in compact objects (which comprise stars, stellar remnants, small stellar groupings and primordial black holes) of mass $M > 0.03 M_{\odot}$ over cosmological distances. Using 1,532 SNe Ia from the Dark Energy Survey Year 5 sample (DES-SN5YR) combined with a Bayesian prior for the absolute magnitude $M$, we obtain $\alpha < 0.12$ at the 95\% confidence level after marginalisation over cosmological parameters, lensing due to large-scale structure, and intrinsic non-Gaussianity. Similar results are obtained using priors from the cosmic microwave background, baryon acoustic oscillations and galaxy weak lensing, indicating our results do not depend on the background cosmology. We argue our constraints are likely to be conservative (in the sense of the values we quote being higher than the truth), but discuss scenarios in which they could be weakened by systematics of the order of $\Delta \alpha \sim 0.04$

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arXiv2023

The Cosmic Microwave Background and $H_0$

The cosmic microwave background (CMB) offers a unique window into the early universe, providing insights into cosmological parameters like the Hubble constant. Recent precise measurements of the CMB by experiments like Planck seem to point to a lower value for the Hubble constant compared to some other measurements like those from Type Ia supernovae. This discrepancy, known as the Hubble tension, currently lacks a definitive explanation. In this chapter, we provide an overview of how the Hubble constant is determined from detailed measurements of the CMB power spectrum. We explain the physics underlying key features of the CMB spectrum and their connection to cosmological parameters. We then examine the consistency of Planck's Hubble constant determination, both internally within the data itself and externally with other astrophysical probes. While largely consistent, some anomalies like the lensing amplitude parameter $A_L$ remain unresolved. We also explore various theoretical extensions to the standard $Λ$CDM cosmological model and assess their potential to resolve the Hubble tension. No clear resolution emerges, indicating significant tensions remain between early and late universe probes within simple extensions to $Λ$CDM. Upcoming CMB experiments promise improved precision and should provide further insights into this cosmic conundrum. A coherent picture bridging measurements across cosmic time remains an open challenge at the forefront of modern cosmology.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

The impact of weak lensing on Type Ia supernovae luminosity distances

When Type Ia supernovae are used to infer cosmological parameters, their luminosities are compared to those from a homogeneous cosmology. In this note we propose a test to examine to what degree SN Ia have been observed on lines of sight where the average matter density is \textit{not} representative of the homogeneous background. We apply our test to the Pantheon SN Ia compilation, and find two redshift bins which indicate a moderate bias to over-density at $\sim 2σ$. We modify the Tripp estimator to explicitly de-lens SN Ia magnitudes, and show that this reduces scatter of Hubble diagram residuals. Using our revised Tripp estimator, the effect on cosmological parameters from Pantheon in $Λ$CDM is however small with a change in mean value from $Ω_{\rm m} = 0.317 \pm 0.027$ (baseline) to $Ω_{\rm m} = 0.312 \pm 0.025$ (de-lensed). For the Flat $w$CDM case it is $Ω_{\rm m} = 0.332 \pm 0.049$ and $w = -1.16 \pm 0.16$ (baseline) versus $Ω_{\rm m} = 0.316 \pm 0.048$ and $w = -1.12 \pm 0.15$ (de-lensed). We note that the effect of lensing on cosmological parameters may be larger for future high-z surveys.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2022

Weak lensing magnification of Type Ia Supernovae from the Pantheon sample

Using data from the Pantheon SN Ia compilation and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), we propose an estimator for weak lensing convergence incorporating positional and photometric data of foreground galaxies. The correlation between this and the Hubble diagram residuals of the supernovae has $3.6σ$ significance, and is consistent with weak lensing magnification due to dark matter halos centered on galaxies. We additionally constrain the properties of the galactic haloes, such as the mass-to-light ratio $Γ$ and radial profile of the halo matter density $ρ(r)$. We derive a new relationship for the additional r.m.s. scatter in magnitudes caused by lensing, finding $σ_{\rm lens} = (0.06 \pm 0.017) (d_{\rm C}(z)/ d_{\rm C}(z=1))^{3/2}$ where $d_{\rm C}(z)$ is the comoving distance to redshift $z$. Hence the scatter in apparent magnitudes due lensing will be of the same size as the intrinsic scatter of SN Ia by $z \sim 1.2$. We propose a modification of the distance modulus estimator for SN Ia to incorporate lensing, which can be easily calculated from observational data. We anticipate this will improve the accuracy of cosmological parameter estimation for high-redshift SN Ia data.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2021

A buyer's guide to the Hubble Constant

Since the expansion of the universe was first established by Edwin Hubble and Georges Lemaitre about a century ago, the Hubble constant H0 which measures its rate has been of great interest to astronomers. Besides being interesting in its own right, few properties of the universe can be deduced without it. In the last decade a significant gap has emerged between different methods of measuring it, some anchored in the nearby universe, others at cosmological distances. The SH0ES team has found $H_0 = 73.2 \pm 1.3$ km sec$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ locally, whereas the value found for the early universe by the Planck Collaboration is $H_0 = 67.4 \pm 0.5$ km sec$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ from measurements of the cosmic microwave background. Is this gap a sign that the well-established $Λ$CDM cosmological model is somehow incomplete? Or are there unknown systematics? And more practically, how should humble astronomers pick between competing claims if they need to assume a value for a certain purpose? In this article, we review results and what changes to the cosmological model could be needed to accommodate them all. For astronomers in a hurry, we provide a buyer's guide to the results, and make recommendations.

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