arXiv subjects

Paul W. Thurner

Publications and source records attributed to Paul W. Thurner.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Assessing Reporting Delays in ACLED Conflict Event Data

Timely and accurate conflict event data are essential for real-time monitoring, forecasting, and policy response. Yet near-real-time conflict datasets such as the Armed Conflict Location \& Event Data Project (ACLED) are subject to reporting delays, that is, delays between event occurrence and first inclusion in the database. Such delays can introduce bias in short-term analyses and forecasts. This study provides a statistical analysis of reporting delays for African events recorded in ACLED's weekly releases from June 30, 2024, to June 1, 2025. Treating delay as a discrete time duration, we estimate grouped proportional hazards models with additive-linear and smooth terms incorporating event-level, spatial, and country-level covariates. Our results show that more than half of events are reported within two weeks, but delays vary systematically by event type, fatalities, geographic location, and political regime. Higher-fatality events are reported more quickly, while events in more restrictive political and informational environments tend to be reported more slowly. We also find substantial between-country heterogeneity, and country-specific analyses indicate that event-level effects differ across contexts. These findings show that reporting delays are structured rather than random and that real-time conflict analysis must account for them. More broadly, they provide an empirical foundation for developing nowcasting approaches to correct short-term underreporting in conflict event data.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2023

The Politics of Language Choice: How the Russian-Ukrainian War Influences Ukrainians' Language Use on Twitter

The use of language is innately political and often a vehicle of cultural identity as well as the basis for nation building. Here, we examine language choice and tweeting activity of Ukrainian citizens based on more than 4 million geo-tagged tweets from over 62,000 users before and during the Russian-Ukrainian War, from January 2020 to October 2022. Using statistical models, we disentangle sample effects, arising from the in- and outflux of users on Twitter, from behavioural effects, arising from behavioural changes of the users. We observe a steady shift from the Russian language towards the Ukrainian language already before the war, which drastically speeds up with its outbreak. We attribute these shifts in large part to users' behavioural changes. Notably, we find that more than half of the Russian-tweeting users shift towards Ukrainian as a result of the war.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2022

All that Glitters is not Gold: Relational Events Models with Spurious Events

As relational event models are an increasingly popular model for studying relational structures, the reliability of large-scale event data collection becomes more and more important. Automated or human-coded events often suffer from non-negligible false-discovery rates in event identification. And most sensor data is primarily based on actors' spatial proximity for predefined time windows; hence, the observed events could relate either to a social relationship or random co-location. Both examples imply spurious events that may bias estimates and inference. We propose the Relational Event Model for Spurious Events (REMSE), an extension to existing approaches for interaction data. The model provides a flexible solution for modeling data while controlling for spurious events. Estimation of our model is carried out in an empirical Bayesian approach via data augmentation. Based on a simulation study, we investigate the properties of the estimation procedure. To demonstrate its usefulness in two distinct applications, we employ this model to combat events from the Syrian civil war and student co-location data. Results from the simulation and the applications identify the REMSE as a suitable approach to modeling relational event data in the presence of spurious events.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Exponential Random Graph Models for Dynamic Signed Networks: An Application to International Relations

Substantive research in the Social Sciences regularly investigates signed networks, where edges between actors are either positive or negative. For instance, schoolchildren can be friends or rivals, just as countries can cooperate or fight each other. This research often builds on structural balance theory, one of the earliest and most prominent network theories, making signed networks one of the most frequently studied matters in social network analysis. While the theorization and description of signed networks have thus made significant progress, the inferential study of tie formation within them remains limited in the absence of appropriate statistical models. In this paper we fill this gap by proposing the Signed Exponential Random Graph Model (SERGM), extending the well-known Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) to networks where ties are not binary but negative or positive if a tie exists. Since most networks are dynamically evolving systems, we specify the model for both cross-sectional and dynamic networks. Based on structural hypotheses derived from structural balance theory, we formulate interpretable signed network statistics, capturing dynamics such as "the enemy of my enemy is my friend". In our empirical application, we use the SERGM to analyze cooperation and conflict between countries within the international state system.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Separable and Semiparametric Network-based Counting Processes applied to the International Combat Aircraft Trades

We propose a novel tie-oriented model for longitudinal event network data. The generating mechanism is assumed to be a multivariate Poisson process that governs the onset and repetition of yearly observed events with two separate intensity functions. We apply the model to a network obtained from the number of international deliveries of combat aircraft trades between 1950 and 2017. Based on a modified trade gravity approach we identify economic and political factors impeding or lightening the number of transfers. Extensive dynamics as well as country heterogeneity require the specification of semiparametric time-varying effects as well as random effects.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2020

The Role of Governmental Weapons Procurements in Forecasting Monthly Fatalities in Intrastate Conflicts: A Semiparametric Hierarchical Hurdle Model

Accurate and interpretable forecasting models predicting spatially and temporally fine-grained changes in the numbers of intrastate conflict casualties are of crucial importance for policymakers and international non-governmental organisations (NGOs). Using a count data approach, we propose a hierarchical hurdle regression model to address the corresponding prediction challenge at the monthly PRIO-grid level. More precisely, we model the intensity of local armed conflict at a specific point in time as a three-stage process. Stages one and two of our approach estimate whether we will observe any casualties at the country- and grid-cell-level, respectively, while stage three applies a regression model for truncated data to predict the number of such fatalities conditional upon the previous two stages. Within this modelling framework, we focus on the role of governmental arms imports as a processual factor allowing governments to intensify or deter from fighting. We further argue that a grid cell's geographic remoteness is bound to moderate the effects of these military buildups. Out-of-sample predictions corroborate the effectiveness of our parsimonious and theory-driven model, which enables full transparency combined with accuracy in the forecasting process.

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arXiv2019

A Dynamic Separable Network Model with Actor Heterogeneity: An Application to Global Weapons Transfers

In this paper we propose to extend the separable temporal exponential random graph model (STERGM) to account for time-varying network- and actor-specific effects. Our application case is the network of international major conventional weapons transfers, based on data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The application is particularly suitable since it allows to distinguish the potentially differing driving forces for creating new trade relationships and for the endurance of existing ones. In accordance with political economy models we expect security- and network-related covariates to be most important for the formation of transfers, whereas repeated transfers should prevalently be determined by the receivers' market size and military spending. Our proposed modelling approach corroborates the hypothesis and quantifies the corresponding effects. Additionally, we subject the time-varying heterogeneity effects to a functional principal component analysis. This serves as exploratory tool and allows to identify countries that stand out by exceptional increases or decreases of their tendency to import and export weapons.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2019

Censored Regression for Modelling International Small Arms Trading and its "Forensic" Use for Exploring Unreported Trades

In this paper we use a censored regression model to investigate data on the international trade of small arms and ammunition (SAA) provided by the Norwegian Initiative on Small Arms Transfers (NISAT). Taking a network based view on the transfers, we not only rely on exogenous covariates but also estimate endogenous network effects. We apply a spatial autocorrelation (SAR) model with multiple weight matrices. The likelihood is maximized employing the Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization (MCEM) algorithm. Our approach reveals strong and stable endogenous network effects. Furthermore, we find evidence for a substantial path dependence as well as a close connection between exports of civilian and military small arms. The model is then used in a "forensic" manner to analyse latent network structures and thereby to identify countries with higher or lower tendency to export or import than reflected in the data. The approach is also validated using a simulation study.

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