Paula Koelemeijer | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

The UK and Ireland Geophysical Array -- Concept and Design

Scientific exploration of the UK and Ireland's subsurface has made important contributions to scholarship and prosperity for people and the planet, including economic growth, sustainable use of natural resources, storage of greenhouse gases, and inspiring curiosity about the Earth beneath our feet. This article outlines a vision for an array of seismological instruments spanning the UK and Ireland, UKI Array, augmented by other types of geophysical sensors, to maximise the value offered by existing equipment pools. The mission is to research natural phenomena and structure in the deep and shallow Earth, to solve problems concerning hazards and resources, to connect scientists to schools and the broader public, and thus to inspire a new generation to learn about geophysics. The vision was created through a community driven process of engagement and participation. This paper describes the concept and design of the UKI-Array; a companion paper discusses related opportunities and potential applications.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2024

Gaussian Processes for Probabilistic Estimates of Earthquake Ground Shaking: A 1-D Proof-of-Concept

Estimates of seismic wave speeds in the Earth (seismic velocity models) are key input parameters to earthquake simulations for ground motion prediction. Owing to the non-uniqueness of the seismic inverse problem, typically many velocity models exist for any given region. The arbitrary choice of which velocity model to use in earthquake simulations impacts ground motion predictions. However, current hazard analysis methods do not account for this source of uncertainty. We present a proof-of-concept ground motion prediction workflow for incorporating uncertainties arising from inconsistencies between existing seismic velocity models. Our analysis is based on the probabilistic fusion of overlapping seismic velocity models using scalable Gaussian process (GP) regression. Specifically, we fit a GP to two synthetic 1-D velocity profiles simultaneously, and show that the predictive uncertainty accounts for the differences between the models. We subsequently draw velocity model samples from the predictive distribution and estimate peak ground displacement using acoustic wave propagation through the velocity models. The resulting distribution of possible ground motion amplitudes is much wider than would be predicted by simulating shaking using only the two input velocity models. This proof-of-concept illustrates the importance of probabilistic methods for physics-based seismic hazard analysis.

physics.geo-ph↗