arXiv subjects

Paulo Shakarian

Publications and source records attributed to Paulo Shakarian.

79 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2013

Mining for Geographically Disperse Communities in Social Networks by Leveraging Distance Modularity

Social networks where the actors occupy geospatial locations are prevalent in military, intelligence, and policing operations such as counter-terrorism, counter-insurgency, and combating organized crime. These networks are often derived from a variety of intelligence sources. The discovery of communities that are geographically disperse stems from the requirement to identify higher-level organizational structures, such as a logistics group that provides support to various geographically disperse terrorist cells. We apply a variant of Newman-Girvan modularity to this problem known as distance modularity. To address the problem of finding geographically disperse communities, we modify the well-known Louvain algorithm to find partitions of networks that provide near-optimal solutions to this quantity. We apply this algorithm to numerous samples from two real-world social networks and a terrorism network data set whose nodes have associated geospatial locations. Our experiments show this to be an effective approach and highlight various practical considerations when applying the algorithm to distance modularity maximization. Several military, intelligence, and law-enforcement organizations are working with us to further test and field software for this emerging application.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2013

Geospatial Optimization Problems

There are numerous applications which require the ability to take certain actions (e.g. distribute money, medicines, people etc.) over a geographic region. A disaster relief organization must allocate people and supplies to parts of a region after a disaster. A public health organization must allocate limited vaccine to people across a region. In both cases, the organization is trying to optimize something (e.g. minimize expected number of people with a disease). We introduce "geospatial optimization problems" (GOPs) where an organization has limited resources and budget to take actions in a geographic area. The actions result in one or more properties changing for one or more locations. There are also certain constraints on the combinations of actions that can be taken. We study two types of GOPs - goal-based and benefit-maximizing (GBGOP and BMGOP respectively). A GBGOP ensures that certain properties must be true at specified locations after the actions are taken while a BMGOP optimizes a linear benefit function. We show both problems to be NP-hard (with membership in NP for the associated decision problems). Additionally, we prove limits on approximation for both problems. We present integer programs for both GOPs that provide exact solutions. We also correctly reduce the number of variables in for the GBGOP integer constraints. For BMGOP, we present the BMGOP-Compute algorithm that runs in PTIME and provides a reasonable approximation guarantee in most cases.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2013

Large Social Networks can be Targeted for Viral Marketing with Small Seed Sets

In a "tipping" model, each node in a social network, representing an individual, adopts a behavior if a certain number of his incoming neighbors previously held that property. A key problem for viral marketers is to determine an initial "seed" set in a network such that if given a property then the entire network adopts the behavior. Here we introduce a method for quickly finding seed sets that scales to very large networks. Our approach finds a set of nodes that guarantees spreading to the entire network under the tipping model. After experimentally evaluating 31 real-world networks, we found that our approach often finds such sets that are several orders of magnitude smaller than the population size. Our approach also scales well - on a Friendster social network consisting of 5.6 million nodes and 28 million edges we found a seed sets in under 3.6 hours. We also find that highly clustered local neighborhoods and dense network-wide community structure together suppress the ability of a trend to spread under the tipping model.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2013

MANCaLog: A Logic for Multi-Attribute Network Cascades (Technical Report)

The modeling of cascade processes in multi-agent systems in the form of complex networks has in recent years become an important topic of study due to its many applications: the adoption of commercial products, spread of disease, the diffusion of an idea, etc. In this paper, we begin by identifying a desiderata of seven properties that a framework for modeling such processes should satisfy: the ability to represent attributes of both nodes and edges, an explicit representation of time, the ability to represent non-Markovian temporal relationships, representation of uncertain information, the ability to represent competing cascades, allowance of non-monotonic diffusion, and computational tractability. We then present the MANCaLog language, a formalism based on logic programming that satisfies all these desiderata, and focus on algorithms for finding minimal models (from which the outcome of cascades can be obtained) as well as how this formalism can be applied in real world scenarios. We are not aware of any other formalism in the literature that meets all of the above requirements.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2013

A Novel Analytical Method for Evolutionary Graph Theory Problems

Evolutionary graph theory studies the evolutionary dynamics of populations structured on graphs. A central problem is determining the probability that a small number of mutants overtake a population. Currently, Monte Carlo simulations are used for estimating such fixation probabilities on general directed graphs, since no good analytical methods exist. In this paper, we introduce a novel deterministic framework for computing fixation probabilities for strongly connected, directed, weighted evolutionary graphs under neutral drift. We show how this framework can also be used to calculate the expected number of mutants at a given time step (even if we relax the assumption that the graph is strongly connected), how it can extend to other related models (e.g. voter model), how our framework can provide non-trivial bounds for fixation probability in the case of an advantageous mutant, and how it can be used to find a non-trivial lower bound on the mean time to fixation. We provide various experimental results determining fixation probabilities and expected number of mutants on different graphs. Among these, we show that our method consistently outperforms Monte Carlo simulations in speed by several orders of magnitude. Finally we show how our approach can provide insight into synaptic competition in neurology.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2012

Shaping Operations to Attack Robust Terror Networks

Security organizations often attempt to disrupt terror or insurgent networks by targeting "high value targets" (HVT's). However, there have been numerous examples that illustrate how such networks are able to quickly re-generate leadership after such an operation. Here, we introduce the notion of a "shaping" operation in which the terrorist network is first targeted for the purpose of reducing its leadership re-generation ability before targeting HVT's. We look to conduct shaping by maximizing the network-wide degree centrality through node removal. We formally define this problem and prove solving it is NP-Complete. We introduce a mixed integer-linear program that solves this problem exactly as well as a greedy heuristic for more practical use. We implement the greedy heuristic and found in examining five real-world terrorist networks that removing only 12% of nodes can increase the network-wide centrality between 17% and 45%. We also show our algorithm can scale to large social networks of 1,133 nodes and 5,541 edges on commodity hardware.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2012

Spreaders in the Network SIR Model: An Empirical Study

We use the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model for disease spread over a network, and empirically study how well various centrality measures perform at identifying which nodes in a network will be the best spreaders of disease on 10 real-world networks. We find that the relative performance of degree, shell number and other centrality measures can be sensitive to B, the probability that an infected node will transmit the disease to a susceptible node. We also find that eigenvector centrality performs very well in general for values of B above the epidemic threshold.

cs.SI↗