arXiv subjects

Pawel Renc

Publications and source records attributed to Pawel Renc.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Foundation Model of Electronic Medical Records for Adaptive Risk Estimation

Hospitals struggle to predict critical outcomes. Traditional early warning systems, like NEWS and MEWS, rely on static variables and fixed thresholds, limiting their adaptability, accuracy, and personalization. We previously developed the Enhanced Transformer for Health Outcome Simulation (ETHOS), an AI model that tokenizes patient health timelines (PHTs) from EHRs and uses transformer-based architectures to predict future PHTs. ETHOS is a versatile framework for developing a wide range of applications. In this work, we develop the Adaptive Risk Estimation System (ARES) that leverages ETHOS to compute dynamic, personalized risk probabilities for clinician-defined critical events. ARES also features a personalized explainability module that highlights key clinical factors influencing risk estimates. We evaluated ARES using the MIMIC-IV v2.2 dataset together with its Emergency Department (ED) extension and benchmarked performance against both classical early warning systems and contemporary machine learning models. The entire dataset was tokenized resulting in 285,622 PHTs, comprising over 360 million tokens. ETHOS outperformed benchmark models in predicting hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and prolonged stays, achieving superior AUC scores. Its risk estimates were robust across demographic subgroups, with calibration curves confirming model reliability. The explainability module provided valuable insights into patient-specific risk factors. ARES, powered by ETHOS, advances predictive healthcare AI by delivering dynamic, real-time, personalized risk estimation with patient-specific explainability. Although our results are promising, the clinical impact remains uncertain. Demonstrating ARES's true utility in real-world settings will be the focus of our future work. We release the source code to facilitate future research.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

RegScore: Scoring Systems for Regression Tasks

Scoring systems are widely adopted in medical applications for their inherent simplicity and transparency, particularly for classification tasks involving tabular data. In this work, we introduce RegScore, a novel, sparse, and interpretable scoring system specifically designed for regression tasks. Unlike conventional scoring systems constrained to integer-valued coefficients, RegScore leverages beam search and k-sparse ridge regression to relax these restrictions, thus enhancing predictive performance. We extend RegScore to bimodal deep learning by integrating tabular data with medical images. We utilize the classification token from the TIP (Tabular Image Pretraining) transformer to generate Personalized Linear Regression parameters and a Personalized RegScore, enabling individualized scoring. We demonstrate the effectiveness of RegScore by estimating mean Pulmonary Artery Pressure using tabular data and further refine these estimates by incorporating cardiac MRI images. Experimental results show that RegScore and its personalized bimodal extensions achieve performance comparable to, or better than, state-of-the-art black-box models. Our method provides a transparent and interpretable approach for regression tasks in clinical settings, promoting more informed and trustworthy decision-making. We provide our code at https://github.com/SanoScience/RegScore.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2025

Federated Timeline Synthesis: Scalable and Private Methodology For Model Training and Deployment

We present Federated Timeline Synthesis (FTS), a novel framework for training generative foundation models across distributed timeseries data applied to electronic health records (EHR). At its core, FTS represents patient history as tokenized Patient Health Timelines (PHTs), language-agnostic sequences encoding temporal, categorical, and continuous clinical information. Each institution trains an autoregressive transformer on its local PHTs and transmits only model weights to a central server. The server uses the generators to synthesize a large corpus of trajectories and train a Global Generator (GG), enabling zero-shot inference via Monte Carlo simulation of future PHTs. We evaluate FTS on five clinically meaningful prediction tasks using MIMIC-IV data, showing that models trained on synthetic data generated by GG perform comparably to those trained on real data. FTS offers strong privacy guarantees, scalability across institutions, and extensibility to diverse prediction and simulation tasks especially in healthcare, including counterfactual inference, early warning detection, and synthetic trial design.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Zero Shot Health Trajectory Prediction Using Transformer

Integrating modern machine learning and clinical decision-making has great promise for mitigating healthcare's increasing cost and complexity. We introduce the Enhanced Transformer for Health Outcome Simulation (ETHOS), a novel application of the transformer deep-learning architecture for analyzing high-dimensional, heterogeneous, and episodic health data. ETHOS is trained using Patient Health Timelines (PHTs)-detailed, tokenized records of health events-to predict future health trajectories, leveraging a zero-shot learning approach. ETHOS represents a significant advancement in foundation model development for healthcare analytics, eliminating the need for labeled data and model fine-tuning. Its ability to simulate various treatment pathways and consider patient-specific factors positions ETHOS as a tool for care optimization and addressing biases in healthcare delivery. Future developments will expand ETHOS' capabilities to incorporate a wider range of data types and data sources. Our work demonstrates a pathway toward accelerated AI development and deployment in healthcare.

cs.LG↗