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Peer-Olaf Siebers

Publications and source records attributed to Peer-Olaf Siebers.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Large Language Models as Supervised Extraction Assistants: Lowering the Barrier to Documentation Standard Adoption in Agent-Based Modelling

Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) relies on clear documentation to ensure credibility and transparency. Although standards exist for documenting models (e.g. ODD), processes (e.g. TRACE, EABSS), and data use (e.g. RAT-RS), their adoption remains limited due to the effort required to produce documentation that is often treated as supplementary. This paper explores the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) to facilitate and partially automate such processes. We conduct a feasibility study focusing on the underused Rigour and Transparency Reporting Standard (RAT-RS), using four LLMs to extract reports from a published ABM paper. We assess consistency and performance across question types, finding that LLMs generate coherent outputs and perform more reliably on descriptive than on explanatory or evaluative tasks. While LLMs can improve reporting quality and consistency, they also exhibit notable limitations. We identify practical heuristics for when LLM-assisted documentation is reliable and when human oversight is needed and call for systematic community-level exploration to enhance rigour and adoption in ABM reporting.

cs.MA↗

Exploring the Potential of Conversational AI Support for Agent-Based Social Simulation Model Design

ChatGPT, the AI-powered chatbot with a massive user base of hundreds of millions, has become a global phenomenon. However, the use of Conversational AI Systems (CAISs) like ChatGPT for research in the field of Social Simulation is still limited. Specifically, there is no evidence of its usage in Agent-Based Social Simulation (ABSS) model design. This paper takes a crucial first step toward exploring the untapped potential of this emerging technology in the context of ABSS model design. The research presented here demonstrates how CAISs can facilitate the development of innovative conceptual ABSS models in a concise timeframe and with minimal required upfront case-based knowledge. By employing advanced prompt engineering techniques and adhering to the Engineering ABSS framework, we have constructed a comprehensive prompt script that enables the design of conceptual ABSS models with or by the CAIS. A proof-of-concept application of the prompt script, used to generate the conceptual ABSS model for a case study on the impact of adaptive architecture in a museum environment, illustrates the practicality of the approach. Despite occasional inaccuracies and conversational divergence, the CAIS proved to be a valuable companion for ABSS modellers.

cs.HC↗

Large Language Models for Agent-Based Modelling: Current and possible uses across the modelling cycle

The emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) with increasingly sophisticated natural language understanding and generative capabilities has sparked interest in the Agent-based Modelling (ABM) community. With their ability to summarize, generate, analyze, categorize, transcribe and translate text, answer questions, propose explanations, sustain dialogue, extract information from unstructured text, and perform logical reasoning and problem-solving tasks, LLMs have a good potential to contribute to the modelling process. After reviewing the current use of LLMs in ABM, this study reflects on the opportunities and challenges of the potential use of LLMs in ABM. It does so by following the modelling cycle, from problem formulation to documentation and communication of model results, and holding a critical stance.

cs.MA↗

Using simulation to incorporate dynamic criteria into multiple criteria decision-making

In this paper, we present a case study demonstrating how dynamic and uncertain criteria can be incorporated into a multicriteria analysis with the help of discrete event simulation. The simulation guided multicriteria analysis can include both monetary and non-monetary criteria that are static or dynamic, whereas standard multi criteria analysis only deals with static criteria and cost benefit analysis only deals with static monetary criteria. The dynamic and uncertain criteria are incorporated by using simulation to explore how the decision options perform. The results of the simulation are then fed into the multicriteria analysis. By enabling the incorporation of dynamic and uncertain criteria, the dynamic multiple criteria analysis was able to take a unique perspective of the problem. The highest ranked option returned by the dynamic multicriteria analysis differed from the other decision aid techniques.

cs.AI↗

Agent-Based Simulation Modelling for Reflecting on Consequences of Digital Mental Health

The premise of this working paper is based around agent-based simulation models and how to go about creating them from given incomplete information. Agent-based simulations are stochastic simulations that revolve around groups of agents that each have their own characteristics and can make decisions. Such simulations can be used to emulate real life situations and to create hypothetical situations without the need for real-world testing prior. Here we describe the development of an agent-based simulation model for studying future digital mental health scenarios. An incomplete conceptual model has been used as the basis for this development. To define differences in responses to stimuli we employed fuzzy decision making logic. The model has been implemented but not been used for structured experimentation yet. This is planned as our next step.

cs.MA↗

Juxtaposition of System Dynamics and Agent-based Simulation for a Case Study in Immunosenescence

Advances in healthcare and in the quality of life significantly increase human life expectancy. With the ageing of populations, new un-faced challenges are brought to science. The human body is naturally selected to be well-functioning until the age of reproduction to keep the species alive. However, as the lifespan extends, unseen problems due to the body deterioration emerge. There are several age-related diseases with no appropriate treatment; therefore, the complex ageing phenomena needs further understanding. Immunosenescence, the ageing of the immune system, is highly correlated to the negative effects of ageing, such as the increase of auto-inflammatory diseases and decrease in responsiveness to new diseases. Besides clinical and mathematical tools, we believe there is opportunity to further exploit simulation tools to understand immunosenescence. Compared to real-world experimentation, benefits include time and cost effectiveness due to the laborious, resource-intensiveness of the biological environment and the possibility of conducting experiments without ethic restrictions. Contrasted with mathematical models, simulation modelling is more suitable for representing complex systems and emergence. In addition, there is the belief that simulation models are easier to communicate in interdisciplinary contexts. Our work investigates the usefulness of simulations to understand immunosenescence by employing two different simulation methods, agent-based and system dynamics simulation, to a case study of immune cells depletion with age.

cs.AI↗

Simulating user learning in authoritative technology adoption: An agent based model for council-led smart meter deployment planning in the UK

How do technology users effectively transit from having zero knowledge about a technology to making the best use of it after an authoritative technology adoption? This post-adoption user learning has received little research attention in technology management literature. In this paper we investigate user learning in authoritative technology adoption by developing an agent-based model using the case of council-led smart meter deployment in the UK City of Leeds. Energy consumers gain experience of using smart meters based on the learning curve in behavioural learning. With the agent-based model we carry out experiments to validate the model and test different energy interventions that local authorities can use to facilitate energy consumers' learning and maintain their continuous use of the technology. Our results show that the easier energy consumers become experienced, the more energy-efficient they are and the more energy saving they can achieve; encouraging energy consumers' contacts via various informational means can facilitate their learning; and developing and maintaining their positive attitude toward smart metering can enable them to use the technology continuously. Contributions and energy policy/intervention implications are discussed in this paper.

cs.AI↗

Modelling Office Energy Consumption: An Agent Based Approach

In this paper, we develop an agent-based model which integrates four important elements, i.e. organisational energy management policies/regulations, energy management technologies, electric appliances and equipment, and human behaviour, based on a case study, to simulate the energy consumption in office buildings. With the model, we test the effectiveness of different energy management strategies, and solve practical office energy consumption problems. This paper theoretically contributes to an integration of four elements involved in the complex organisational issue of office energy consumption, and practically contributes to an application of agent-based approach for office building energy consumption study.

cs.AI↗

Modelling Electrical Car Diffusion Based on Agents

Replacing traditional fossil fuel vehicles with innovative zero-emission vehicles for the transport in ci ties is one of the major tactics to achieve the UK government 2020 target of cutting emission. We are developing an agent-based simulation model to study the possible impact of different governmental interventions on the diffusion of such vehicles. Options that could be studied with our what-if analysis to include things like car parking charges, price of electrical car, energy awareness and word of mouth. In this paper we present a first case study related to the introduction of a new car park charging scheme at the University of Nottingham. We have developed an agent based model to simulate theimpact of different car parking rates and other incentives on the uptake of electrical cars. The goal of this case study is to demonstrate the usefulness of agent-based modelling and simulation for such investigations.

cs.MA↗

Comparing Stochastic Differential Equations and Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation for Early-stage Cancer

There is great potential to be explored regarding the use of agent-based modelling and simulation as an alternative paradigm to investigate early-stage cancer interactions with the immune system. It does not suffer from some limitations of ordinary differential equation models, such as the lack of stochasticity, representation of individual behaviours rather than aggregates and individual memory. In this paper we investigate the potential contribution of agent-based modelling and simulation when contrasted with stochastic versions of ODE models using early-stage cancer examples. We seek answers to the following questions: (1) Does this new stochastic formulation produce similar results to the agent-based version? (2) Can these methods be used interchangeably? (3) Do agent-based models outcomes reveal any benefit when compared to the Gillespie results? To answer these research questions we investigate three well-established mathematical models describing interactions between tumour cells and immune elements. These case studies were re-conceptualised under an agent-based perspective and also converted to the Gillespie algorithm formulation. Our interest in this work, therefore, is to establish a methodological discussion regarding the usability of different simulation approaches, rather than provide further biological insights into the investigated case studies. Our results show that it is possible to obtain equivalent models that implement the same mechanisms; however, the incapacity of the Gillespie algorithm to retain individual memory of past events affects the similarity of some results. Furthermore, the emergent behaviour of ABMS produces extra patters of behaviour in the system, which was not obtained by the Gillespie algorithm.

cs.MA↗

A Beginners Guide to Systems Simulation in Immunology

Some common systems modelling and simulation approaches for immune problems are Monte Carlo simulations, system dynamics, discrete-event simulation and agent-based simulation. These methods, however, are still not widely adopted in immunology research. In addition, to our knowledge, there is few research on the processes for the development of simulation models for the immune system. Hence, for this work, we have two contributions to knowledge. The first one is to show the importance of systems simulation to help immunological research and to draw the attention of simulation developers to this research field. The second contribution is the introduction of a quick guide containing the main steps for modelling and simulation in immunology, together with challenges that occur during the model development. Further, this paper introduces an example of a simulation problem, where we test our guidelines.

cs.CE↗

Systems Dynamics or Agent-Based Modelling for Immune Simulation?

In immune system simulation there are two competing simulation approaches: System Dynamics Simulation (SDS) and Agent-Based Simulation (ABS). In the literature there is little guidance on how to choose the best approach for a specific immune problem. Our overall research aim is to develop a framework that helps researchers with this choice. In this paper we investigate if it is possible to easily convert simulation models between approaches. With no explicit guidelines available from the literature we develop and test our own set of guidelines for converting SDS models into ABS models in a non-spacial scenario. We also define guidelines to convert ABS into SDS considering a non-spatial and a spatial scenario. After running some experiments with the developed models we found that in all cases there are significant differences between the results produced by the different simulation methods.

cs.CE↗

Modelling the Effects of User Learning on Forced Innovation Diffusion

Technology adoption theories assume that users' acceptance of an innovative technology is on a voluntary basis. However, sometimes users are force to accept an innovation. In this case users have to learn what it is useful for and how to use it. This learning process will enable users to transit from zero knowledge about the innovation to making the best use of it. So far the effects of user learning on technology adoption have received little research attention. In this paper - for the first time - we investigate the effects of user learning on forced innovation adoption by using an agent-based simulation approach using the case of forced smart metering deployments in the city of Leeds

cs.CY↗

Modelling Reactive and Proactive Behaviour in Simulation: A Case Study in a University Organisation

Simulation is a well established what-if scenario analysis tool in Operational Research (OR). While traditionally Discrete Event Simulation (DES) and System Dynamics Simulation (SDS) are the predominant simulation techniques in OR, a new simulation technique, namely Agent-Based Simulation (ABS), has emerged and is gaining more attention. In our research we focus on discrete simulation methods (i.e. DES and ABS). The contribution made by this paper is the comparison of DES and combined DES/ABS for modelling human reactive and different level of detail of human proactive behaviour in service systems. The results of our experiments show that the level of proactiveness considered in the model has a big impact on the simulation output. However, there is not a big difference between the results from the DES and the combined DES/ABS simulation models. Therefore, for service systems of the type we investigated we would suggest to use DES as the preferred analysis tool.

cs.CE↗

Comparing Decison Support Tools for Cargo Screening Processes

When planning to change operations at ports there are two key stake holders with very different interests involved in the decision making processes. Port operators are attentive to their standards, a smooth service flow and economic viability while border agencies are concerned about national security. The time taken for security checks often interferes with the compliance to service standards that port operators would like to achieve. Decision support tools as for example Cost-Benefit Analysis or Multi Criteria Analysis are useful helpers to better understand the impact of changes to a system. They allow investigating future scenarios and helping to find solutions that are acceptable for all parties involved in port operations. In this paper we evaluate two different modelling methods, namely scenario analysis and discrete event simulation. These are useful for driving the decision support tools (i.e. they provide the inputs the decision support tools require). Our aims are, on the one hand, to guide the reader through the modelling processes and, on the other hand, to demonstrate what kind of decision support information one can obtain from the different modelling methods presented.

cs.CE↗

Scenario Analysis, Decision Trees and Simulation for Cost Benefit Analysis of the Cargo Screening Process

In this paper we present our ideas for conducting a cost benefit analysis by using three different methods: scenario analysis, decision trees and simulation. Then we introduce our case study and examine these methods in a real world situation. We show how these tools can be used and what the results are for each of them. Our aim is to conduct a comparison of these different probabilistic methods of estimating costs for port security risk assessment studies. Methodologically, we are trying to understand the limits of all the tools mentioned above by focusing on rare events.

cs.CE↗

Towards modelling cost and risks of infrequent events in the cargo screening process

We introduce a simulation model of the port of Calais with a focus on the operation of immigration controls. Our aim is to compare the cost and benefits of different screening policies. Methodologically, we are trying to understand the limits of discrete event simulation of rare events. When will they become 'too rare' for simulation to give meaningful results?

cs.CE↗

Evaluating Different Cost-Benefit Analysis Methods for Port Security Operations

Service industries, such as ports, are attentive to their standards, a smooth service flow and economic viability. Cost benefit analysis has proven itself as a useful tool to support this type of decision making; it has been used by businesses and governmental agencies for many years. In this book chapter we demonstrate different modelling methods that are used for estimating input factors required for conducting cost benefit analysis based on a single case study. These methods are: scenario analysis, decision trees, Monte-Carlo simulation modelling and discrete event simulation modelling. Our aims are, on the one hand, to guide the analyst through the modelling processes and, on the other hand, to demonstrate what additional decision support information can be obtained from applying each of these modelling methods.

cs.CE↗