arXiv subjects

Peer-Timo Bremer

Publications and source records attributed to Peer-Timo Bremer.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Single Model Uncertainty Estimation via Stochastic Data Centering

We are interested in estimating the uncertainties of deep neural networks, which play an important role in many scientific and engineering problems. In this paper, we present a striking new finding that an ensemble of neural networks with the same weight initialization, trained on datasets that are shifted by a constant bias gives rise to slightly inconsistent trained models, where the differences in predictions are a strong indicator of epistemic uncertainties. Using the neural tangent kernel (NTK), we demonstrate that this phenomena occurs in part because the NTK is not shift-invariant. Since this is achieved via a trivial input transformation, we show that this behavior can therefore be approximated by training a single neural network -- using a technique that we call $Δ-$UQ -- that estimates uncertainty around prediction by marginalizing out the effect of the biases during inference. We show that $Δ-$UQ's uncertainty estimates are superior to many of the current methods on a variety of benchmarks -- outlier rejection, calibration under distribution shift, and sequential design optimization of black box functions. Code for $Δ-$UQ can be accessed at https://github.com/LLNL/DeltaUQ

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Data-driven model for divertor plasma detachment prediction

We present a fast and accurate data-driven surrogate model for divertor plasma detachment prediction leveraging the latent feature space concept in machine learning research. Our approach involves constructing and training two neural networks. An autoencoder that finds a proper latent space representation (LSR) of plasma state by compressing the multi-modal diagnostic measurements, and a forward model using multi-layer perception (MLP) that projects a set of plasma control parameters to its corresponding LSR. By combining the forward model and the decoder network from autoencoder, this new data-driven surrogate model is able to predict a consistent set of diagnostic measurements based on a few plasma control parameters. In order to ensure that the crucial detachment physics is correctly captured, highly efficient 1D UEDGE model is used to generate training and validation data in this study. Benchmark between the data-driven surrogate model and UEDGE simulations shows that our surrogate model is capable to provide accurate detachment prediction (usually within a few percent relative error margin) but with at least four orders of magnitude speed-up, indicating that performance-wise, it has the potential to facilitate integrated tokamak design and plasma control. Comparing to the widely used two-point model and/or two-point model formatting, the new data-driven model features additional detachment front prediction and can be easily extended to incorporate richer physics. This study demonstrates that the complicated divertor and scrape-off-layer plasma state has a low-dimensional representation in latent space. Understanding plasma dynamics in latent space and utilizing this knowledge could open a new path for plasma control in magnetic fusion energy research.

physics.plasm-ph↗

arXiv2022

Identifying Orientation-specific Lipid-protein Fingerprints using Deep Learning

Improved understanding of the relation between the behavior of RAS and RAF proteins and the local lipid environment in the cell membrane is critical for getting insights into the mechanisms underlying cancer formation. In this work, we employ deep learning (DL) to learn this relationship by predicting protein orientational states of RAS and RAS-RAF protein complexes with respect to the lipid membrane based on the lipid densities around the protein domains from coarse-grained (CG) molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Our DL model can predict six protein states with an overall accuracy of over 80%. The findings of this work offer new insights into how the proteins modulate the lipid environment, which in turn may assist designing novel therapies to regulate such interactions in the mechanisms associated with cancer development.

q-bio.BM↗

arXiv2022

Emerging Patterns in the Continuum Representation of Protein-Lipid Fingerprints

Capturing intricate biological phenomena often requires multiscale modeling where coarse and inexpensive models are developed using limited components of expensive and high-fidelity models. Here, we consider such a multiscale framework in the context of cancer biology and address the challenge of evaluating the descriptive capabilities of a continuum model developed using 1-dimensional statistics from a molecular dynamics model. Using deep learning, we develop a highly predictive classification model that identifies complex and emergent behavior from the continuum model. With over 99.9% accuracy demonstrated for two simulations, our approach confirms the existence of protein-specific "lipid fingerprints", i.e. spatial rearrangements of lipids in response to proteins of interest. Through this demonstration, our model also provides external validation of the continuum model, affirms the value of such multiscale modeling, and can foster new insights through further analysis of these fingerprints.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2022

Models Out of Line: A Fourier Lens on Distribution Shift Robustness

Improving the accuracy of deep neural networks (DNNs) on out-of-distribution (OOD) data is critical to an acceptance of deep learning (DL) in real world applications. It has been observed that accuracies on in-distribution (ID) versus OOD data follow a linear trend and models that outperform this baseline are exceptionally rare (and referred to as "effectively robust"). Recently, some promising approaches have been developed to improve OOD robustness: model pruning, data augmentation, and ensembling or zero-shot evaluating large pretrained models. However, there still is no clear understanding of the conditions on OOD data and model properties that are required to observe effective robustness. We approach this issue by conducting a comprehensive empirical study of diverse approaches that are known to impact OOD robustness on a broad range of natural and synthetic distribution shifts of CIFAR-10 and ImageNet. In particular, we view the "effective robustness puzzle" through a Fourier lens and ask how spectral properties of both models and OOD data influence the corresponding effective robustness. We find this Fourier lens offers some insight into why certain robust models, particularly those from the CLIP family, achieve OOD robustness. However, our analysis also makes clear that no known metric is consistently the best explanation (or even a strong explanation) of OOD robustness. Thus, to aid future research into the OOD puzzle, we address the gap in publicly-available models with effective robustness by introducing a set of pretrained models--RobustNets--with varying levels of OOD robustness.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

2022 Review of Data-Driven Plasma Science

Data science and technology offer transformative tools and methods to science. This review article highlights latest development and progress in the interdisciplinary field of data-driven plasma science (DDPS). A large amount of data and machine learning algorithms go hand in hand. Most plasma data, whether experimental, observational or computational, are generated or collected by machines today. It is now becoming impractical for humans to analyze all the data manually. Therefore, it is imperative to train machines to analyze and interpret (eventually) such data as intelligently as humans but far more efficiently in quantity. Despite the recent impressive progress in applications of data science to plasma science and technology, the emerging field of DDPS is still in its infancy. Fueled by some of the most challenging problems such as fusion energy, plasma processing of materials, and fundamental understanding of the universe through observable plasma phenomena, it is expected that DDPS continues to benefit significantly from the interdisciplinary marriage between plasma science and data science into the foreseeable future.

physics.plasm-ph↗

arXiv2022

Suppressing simulation bias using multi-modal data

Many problems in science and engineering require making predictions based on few observations. To build a robust predictive model, these sparse data may need to be augmented with simulated data, especially when the design space is multi-dimensional. Simulations, however, often suffer from an inherent bias. Estimation of this bias may be poorly constrained not only because of data sparsity, but also because traditional predictive models fit only one type of observed outputs, such as scalars or images, instead of all available output data modalities, which might have been acquired and simulated at great cost. To break this limitation and open up the path for multi-modal calibration, we propose to combine a novel, transfer learning technique for suppressing the bias with recent developments in deep learning, which allow building predictive models with multi-modal outputs. First, we train an initial neural network model on simulated data to learn important correlations between different output modalities and between simulation inputs and outputs. Then, the model is partially retrained, or transfer learned, to fit the experiments; a method that has never been implemented in this type of architecture. Using fewer than 10 inertial confinement fusion experiments for training, transfer learning systematically improves the simulation predictions while a simple output calibration, which we design as a baseline, makes the predictions worse. We also offer extensive cross-validation with real and carefully designed synthetic data. The method described in this paper can be applied to a wide range of problems that require transferring knowledge from simulations to the domain of experiments.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

AMM: Adaptive Multilinear Meshes

Adaptive representations are increasingly indispensable for reducing the in-memory and on-disk footprints of large-scale data. Usual solutions are designed broadly along two themes: reducing data precision, e.g., through compression, or adapting data resolution, e.g., using spatial hierarchies. Recent research suggests that combining the two approaches, i.e., adapting both resolution and precision simultaneously, can offer significant gains over using them individually. However, there currently exist no practical solutions to creating and evaluating such representations at scale. In this work, we present a new resolution-precision-adaptive representation to support hybrid data reduction schemes and offer an interface to existing tools and algorithms. Through novelties in spatial hierarchy, our representation, Adaptive Multilinear Meshes (AMM), provides considerable reduction in the mesh size. AMM creates a piecewise multilinear representation of uniformly sampled scalar data and can selectively relax or enforce constraints on conformity, continuity, and coverage, delivering a flexible adaptive representation. AMM also supports representing the function using mixed-precision values to further the achievable gains in data reduction. We describe a practical approach to creating AMM incrementally using arbitrary orderings of data and demonstrate AMM on six types of resolution and precision datastreams. By interfacing with state-of-the-art rendering tools through VTK, we demonstrate the practical and computational advantages of our representation for visualization techniques. With an open-source release of our tool to create AMM, we make such evaluation of data reduction accessible to the community, which we hope will foster new opportunities and future data reduction schemes

cs.GR↗

arXiv2021

Geometric Priors for Scientific Generative Models in Inertial Confinement Fusion

In this paper, we develop a Wasserstein autoencoder (WAE) with a hyperspherical prior for multimodal data in the application of inertial confinement fusion. Unlike a typical hyperspherical generative model that requires computationally inefficient sampling from distributions like the von Mis Fisher, we sample from a normal distribution followed by a projection layer before the generator. Finally, to determine the validity of the generated samples, we exploit a known relationship between the modalities in the dataset as a scientific constraint, and study different properties of the proposed model.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Towards replacing physical testing of granular materials with a Topology-based Model

In the study of packed granular materials, the performance of a sample (e.g., the detonation of a high-energy explosive) often correlates to measurements of a fluid flowing through it. The "effective surface area," the surface area accessible to the airflow, is typically measured using a permeametry apparatus that relates the flow conductance to the permeable surface area via the Carman-Kozeny equation. This equation allows calculating the flow rate of a fluid flowing through the granules packed in the sample for a given pressure drop. However, Carman-Kozeny makes inherent assumptions about tunnel shapes and flow paths that may not accurately hold in situations where the particles possess a wide distribution in shapes, sizes, and aspect ratios, as is true with many powdered systems of technological and commercial interest. To address this challenge, we replicate these measurements virtually on micro-CT images of the powdered material, introducing a new Pore Network Model based on the skeleton of the Morse-Smale complex. Pores are identified as basins of the complex, their incidence encodes adjacency, and the conductivity of the capillary between them is computed from the cross-section at their interface. We build and solve a resistive network to compute an approximate laminar fluid flow through the pore structure. We provide two means of estimating flow-permeable surface area: (i) by direct computation of conductivity, and (ii) by identifying dead-ends in the flow coupled with isosurface extraction and the application of the Carman-Kozeny equation, with the aim of establishing consistency over a range of particle shapes, sizes, porosity levels, and void distribution patterns.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2021

Enabling Machine Learning-Ready HPC Ensembles with Merlin

With the growing complexity of computational and experimental facilities, many scientific researchers are turning to machine learning (ML) techniques to analyze large scale ensemble data. With complexities such as multi-component workflows, heterogeneous machine architectures, parallel file systems, and batch scheduling, care must be taken to facilitate this analysis in a high performance computing (HPC) environment. In this paper, we present Merlin, a workflow framework to enable large ML-friendly ensembles of scientific HPC simulations. By augmenting traditional HPC with distributed compute technologies, Merlin aims to lower the barrier for scientific subject matter experts to incorporate ML into their analysis. In addition to its design, we describe some example applications that Merlin has enabled on leadership-class HPC resources, such as the ML-augmented optimization of nuclear fusion experiments and the calibration of infectious disease models to study the progression of and possible mitigation strategies for COVID-19.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2021

MARGIN: Uncovering Deep Neural Networks using Graph Signal Analysis

Interpretability has emerged as a crucial aspect of building trust in machine learning systems, aimed at providing insights into the working of complex neural networks that are otherwise opaque to a user. There are a plethora of existing solutions addressing various aspects of interpretability ranging from identifying prototypical samples in a dataset to explaining image predictions or explaining mis-classifications. While all of these diverse techniques address seemingly different aspects of interpretability, we hypothesize that a large family of interepretability tasks are variants of the same central problem which is identifying \emph{relative} change in a model's prediction. This paper introduces MARGIN, a simple yet general approach to address a large set of interpretability tasks MARGIN exploits ideas rooted in graph signal analysis to determine influential nodes in a graph, which are defined as those nodes that maximally describe a function defined on the graph. By carefully defining task-specific graphs and functions, we demonstrate that MARGIN outperforms existing approaches in a number of disparate interpretability challenges.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Meaningful uncertainties from deep neural network surrogates of large-scale numerical simulations

Large-scale numerical simulations are used across many scientific disciplines to facilitate experimental development and provide insights into underlying physical processes, but they come with a significant computational cost. Deep neural networks (DNNs) can serve as highly-accurate surrogate models, with the capacity to handle diverse datatypes, offering tremendous speed-ups for prediction and many other downstream tasks. An important use-case for these surrogates is the comparison between simulations and experiments; prediction uncertainty estimates are crucial for making such comparisons meaningful, yet standard DNNs do not provide them. In this work we define the fundamental requirements for a DNN to be useful for scientific applications, and demonstrate a general variational inference approach to equip predictions of scalar and image data from a DNN surrogate model trained on inertial confinement fusion simulations with calibrated Bayesian uncertainties. Critically, these uncertainties are interpretable, meaningful and preserve physics-correlations in the predicted quantities.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Machine Learning-Powered Mitigation Policy Optimization in Epidemiological Models

A crucial aspect of managing a public health crisis is to effectively balance prevention and mitigation strategies, while taking their socio-economic impact into account. In particular, determining the influence of different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the effective use of public resources is an important problem, given the uncertainties on when a vaccine will be made available. In this paper, we propose a new approach for obtaining optimal policy recommendations based on epidemiological models, which can characterize the disease progression under different interventions, and a look-ahead reward optimization strategy to choose the suitable NPI at different stages of an epidemic. Given the time delay inherent in any epidemiological model and the exponential nature especially of an unmanaged epidemic, we find that such a look-ahead strategy infers non-trivial policies that adhere well to the constraints specified. Using two different epidemiological models, namely SEIR and EpiCast, we evaluate the proposed algorithm to determine the optimal NPI policy, under a constraint on the number of daily new cases and the primary reward being the absence of restrictions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Accurate Calibration of Agent-based Epidemiological Models with Neural Network Surrogates

Calibrating complex epidemiological models to observed data is a crucial step to provide both insights into the current disease dynamics, i.e.\ by estimating a reproductive number, as well as to provide reliable forecasts and scenario explorations. Here we present a new approach to calibrate an agent-based model -- EpiCast -- using a large set of simulation ensembles for different major metropolitan areas of the United States. In particular, we propose: a new neural network based surrogate model able to simultaneously emulate all different locations; and a novel posterior estimation that provides not only more accurate posterior estimates of all parameters but enables the joint fitting of global parameters across regions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Accurate and Robust Feature Importance Estimation under Distribution Shifts

With increasing reliance on the outcomes of black-box models in critical applications, post-hoc explainability tools that do not require access to the model internals are often used to enable humans understand and trust these models. In particular, we focus on the class of methods that can reveal the influence of input features on the predicted outputs. Despite their wide-spread adoption, existing methods are known to suffer from one or more of the following challenges: computational complexities, large uncertainties and most importantly, inability to handle real-world domain shifts. In this paper, we propose PRoFILE, a novel feature importance estimation method that addresses all these challenges. Through the use of a loss estimator jointly trained with the predictive model and a causal objective, PRoFILE can accurately estimate the feature importance scores even under complex distribution shifts, without any additional re-training. To this end, we also develop learning strategies for training the loss estimator, namely contrastive and dropout calibration, and find that it can effectively detect distribution shifts. Using empirical studies on several benchmark image and non-image data, we show significant improvements over state-of-the-art approaches, both in terms of fidelity and robustness.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Scalable Comparative Visualization of Ensembles of Call Graphs

Optimizing the performance of large-scale parallel codes is critical for efficient utilization of computing resources. Code developers often explore various execution parameters, such as hardware configurations, system software choices, and application parameters, and are interested in detecting and understanding bottlenecks in different executions. They often collect hierarchical performance profiles represented as call graphs, which combine performance metrics with their execution contexts. The crucial task of exploring multiple call graphs together is tedious and challenging because of the many structural differences in the execution contexts and significant variability in the collected performance metrics (e.g., execution runtime). In this paper, we present an enhanced version of CallFlow to support the exploration of ensembles of call graphs using new types of visualizations, analysis, graph operations, and features. We introduce ensemble-Sankey, a new visual design that combines the strengths of resource-flow (Sankey) and box-plot visualization techniques. Whereas the resource-flow visualization can easily and intuitively describe the graphical nature of the call graph, the box plots overlaid on the nodes of Sankey convey the performance variability within the ensemble. Our interactive visual interface provides linked views to help explore ensembles of call graphs, e.g., by facilitating the analysis of structural differences, and identifying similar or distinct call graphs. We demonstrate the effectiveness and usefulness of our design through case studies on large-scale parallel codes.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2020

Designing Accurate Emulators for Scientific Processes using Calibration-Driven Deep Models

Predictive models that accurately emulate complex scientific processes can achieve exponential speed-ups over numerical simulators or experiments, and at the same time provide surrogates for improving the subsequent analysis. Consequently, there is a recent surge in utilizing modern machine learning (ML) methods, such as deep neural networks, to build data-driven emulators. While the majority of existing efforts has focused on tailoring off-the-shelf ML solutions to better suit the scientific problem at hand, we study an often overlooked, yet important, problem of choosing loss functions to measure the discrepancy between observed data and the predictions from a model. Due to lack of better priors on the expected residual structure, in practice, simple choices such as the mean squared error and the mean absolute error are made. However, the inherent symmetric noise assumption made by these loss functions makes them inappropriate in cases where the data is heterogeneous or when the noise distribution is asymmetric. We propose Learn-by-Calibrating (LbC), a novel deep learning approach based on interval calibration for designing emulators in scientific applications, that are effective even with heterogeneous data and are robust to outliers. Using a large suite of use-cases, we show that LbC provides significant improvements in generalization error over widely-adopted loss function choices, achieves high-quality emulators even in small data regimes and more importantly, recovers the inherent noise structure without any explicit priors.

stat.ML↗