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Per A. Mykland

Publications and source records attributed to Per A. Mykland.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

Semiparametrics via parametrics and contiguity

Inference on the parametric part of a semiparametric model is no trivial task. If one approximates the infinite dimensional part of the semiparametric model by a parametric function, one obtains a parametric model that is in some sense close to the semiparametric model and inference may proceed by the method of maximum likelihood. Under regularity conditions, the ensuing maximum likelihood estimator is asymptotically normal and efficient in the approximating parametric model. Thus one obtains a sequence of asymptotically normal and efficient estimators in a sequence of growing parametric models that approximate the semiparametric model and, intuitively, the limiting 'semiparametric' estimator should be asymptotically normal and efficient as well. In this paper we make this intuition rigorous: we move much of the semiparametric analysis back into classical parametric terrain, and then translate our parametric results back to the semiparametric world by way of contiguity. Our approach departs from the conventional sieve literature by being more specific about the approximating parametric models, by working not only with but also under these when treating the parametric models, and by taking full advantage of the mutual contiguity that we require between the parametric and semiparametric models. We illustrate our theory with two canonical examples of semiparametric models, namely the partially linear regression model and the Cox regression model. An upshot of our theory is a new, relatively simple, and rather parametric proof of the efficiency of the Cox partial likelihood estimator.

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A CLT for second difference estimators with an application to volatility and intensity

In this paper we introduce a general method for estimating the quadratic covariation of one or more spot parameters processes associated with continuous time semimartingales. This estimator is applicable to a wide range of spot parameter processes, and may also be used to estimate the leverage effect of stochastic volatility models. The estimator we introduce is based on sums of squared increments of second differences of the observed process, and the intervals over which the differences are computed are rolling and overlapping. This latter feature lets us take full advantage of the data, and, by sufficiency considerations, ought to outperform estimators that are only based on one partition of the observational window. The main result of the paper is a central limit theorem for such triangular array rolling quadratic variations. We highlight the wide applicability of this theorem by showcasing how it might be applied to a novel leverage effect estimator. The principal motivation for the present study, however, is that the discrete times at which a continuous time semimartingale is observed might depend on features of the observable process other than its level, such as its (non-observable) spot-volatility process. As the main application of our estimator, we therefore show how it may be used to estimate the quadratic covariation between the spot-volatility process and the intensity process of the observation times, when both of these are taken to be semimartingales. The finite sample properties of this estimator are studied by way of a simulation experiment, and we also apply this estimator in an empirical analysis of the Apple stock. Our analysis of the Apple stock indicates a rather strong correlation between the spot volatility process of the log-prices process and the times at which this stock is traded (hence observed).

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Model-Free Approaches to Discern Non-Stationary Microstructure Noise and Time-Varying Liquidity in High-Frequency Data

In this paper, we provide non-parametric statistical tools to test stationarity of microstructure noise in general hidden Ito semimartingales, and discuss how to measure liquidity risk using high frequency financial data. In particular, we investigate the impact of non-stationary microstructure noise on some volatility estimators, and design three complementary tests by exploiting edge effects, information aggregation of local estimates and high-frequency asymptotic approximation. The asymptotic distributions of these tests are available under both stationary and non-stationary assumptions, thereby enable us to conservatively control type-I errors and meanwhile ensure the proposed tests enjoy the asymptotically optimal statistical power. Besides it also enables us to empirically measure aggregate liquidity risks by these test statistics. As byproducts, functional dependence and endogenous microstructure noise are briefly discussed. Simulation with a realistic configuration corroborates our theoretical results, and our empirical study indicates the prevalence of non-stationary microstructure noise in New York Stock Exchange.

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Inference for Multi-Dimensional High-Frequency Data: Equivalence of Methods, Central Limit Theorems, and an Application to Conditional Independence Testing

We find the asymptotic distribution of the multi-dimensional multi-scale and kernel estimators for high-frequency financial data with microstructure. Sampling times are allowed to be asynchronous and endogenous. In the process, we show that the classes of multi-scale and kernel estimators for smoothing noise perturbation are asymptotically equivalent in the sense of having the same asymptotic distribution for corresponding kernel and weight functions. The theory leads to multi-dimensional stable central limit theorems and feasible versions. Hence they allow to draw statistical inference for a broad class of multivariate models which paves the way to tests and confidence intervals in risk measurement for arbitrary portfolios composed of high-frequently observed assets. As an application, we enhance the approach to construct a test for investigating hypotheses that correlated assets are independent conditional on a common factor.

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Are volatility estimators robust with respect to modeling assumptions?

We consider microstructure as an arbitrary contamination of the underlying latent securities price, through a Markov kernel $Q$. Special cases include additive error, rounding and combinations thereof. Our main result is that, subject to smoothness conditions, the two scales realized volatility is robust to the form of contamination $Q$. To push the limits of our result, we show what happens for some models that involve rounding (which is not, of course, smooth) and see in this situation how the robustness deteriorates with decreasing smoothness. Our conclusion is that under reasonable smoothness, one does not need to consider too closely how the microstructure is formed, while if severe non-smoothness is suspected, one needs to pay attention to the precise structure and also the use to which the estimator of volatility will be put.

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Estimators of diffusions with randomly spaced discrete observations: A general theory

We provide a general method to analyze the asymptotic properties of a variety of estimators of continuous time diffusion processes when the data are not only discretely sampled in time but the time separating successive observations may possibly be random. We introduce a new operator, the generalized infinitesimal generator, to obtain Taylor expansions of the asymptotic moments of the estimators. As a special case, our results apply to the situation where the data are discretely sampled at a fixed nonrandom time interval. We include as specific examples estimators based on maximum-likelihood and discrete approximations such as the Euler scheme.

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