SearcharxivSearch

arXiv subjects

Pete Riley

Publications and source records attributed to Pete Riley.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Neural Operator based Multi-Field Reconstruction of Inner Solar Boundary State

The Solar wind is a continuous flow of charged particles emanating from the solar surface and governed by complex, interacting magnetohydrodynamic processes. Accurate specification of inner-boundary conditions is essential for heliospheric modeling and solar-wind prediction. In many practical applications, only a subset of interacting multi-field variables is directly available, but for a comprehensive view of solar wind prediction and downstream magnetohydrodynamic simulations, a more complete boundary state is required. In this work, we study the problem of learning the multi-field multi-scale solar magnetohydrodynamic state at 30 solar radii ($R_\odot$) using operator learning. Specifically, given the radial velocity and radial magnetic field, we aim to reconstruct the non-radial velocity and magnetic field components, radial and non-radial current density, thermodynamic density, and pressure components. This mapping is highly nonlinear, spatially coupled, and multi-scale, making it a challenging task for data-driven scientific machine learning. To address this problem, we employ a Local Neural Operator (LocalNO) that learns mappings between input and output function spaces while retaining locality and resolution-awareness. Unlike conventional regression models and autoencoder models, neural operators are better suited for learning structured field-to-field transformations arising from physical systems. The resulting predictions along with inputs are intended to serve as boundary condition variables for future inner-heliospheric modeling pipelines.

cs.LG

Magnetic Connectivity in the Time-Dependent Corona and Heliosphere

Magnetic flux fills the heliosphere, expands outward from the solar corona, and is fundamentally related to the structure and dynamics of the solar corona and solar wind. Open magnetic flux and the fast wind are thought to originate from open magnetic field lines in coronal holes. Less understood processes in the streamer belt and the boundaries of coronal holes, associated with the more variable slow wind, may be formed by interchange reconnection between open and closed magnetic flux. Interchange reconnection is thought to give rise to field lines that are "folded," i.e. that turn back on themselves. The properties of strahl electrons measured in the solar wind give clues to the heliospheric magnetic connectivity. Unidirectionally outward strahl indicates open field lines, while bidirectional strahl is associated with closed magnetic flux and CMEs. Inward directed, unidirectional strahl is believed to indicate folded flux. We use two time-dependent, flux-evolutionary MHD models of the combined corona and heliosphere, one for a solar-minimum configuration, one for the 2024 total solar eclipse, to investigate the magnetic connectivity of the corona/heliosphere system. We examine how magnetic connectivity varies with distance from the Sun in the two configurations. We evaluate the evolutionary effects by contrasting time-dependent results with the corresponding steady-state calculations, and compare the model connectivities with statistical studies of strahl. The connectivities in the time-evolving simulations are roughly consistent with observed strahl occurrence rates, while those from the steady-state models are not. Our results suggest that complex magnetic connectivities are ubiquitous in the heliosphere.

astro-ph.SR

Toward Data-Driven Surrogates of the Solar Wind with Spherical Fourier Neural Operator

The solar wind, a continuous stream of charged particles from the Sun's corona, shapes the heliosphere and impacts space systems near Earth. Variations such as high-speed streams and coronal mass ejections can disrupt satellites, power grids, and communications, making accurate modeling essential for space weather forecasting. While 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models are used to simulate and investigate these variations in the solar wind, they tend to be computationally expensive, limiting their usefulness in investigating the impacts of boundary condition uncertainty. In this work, we develop a surrogate for steady state solar wind modeling, using a Spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO). We compare our model to a previously developed numerical surrogate for this task called HUX, and we show that the SFNO achieves comparable or better performance across several metrics. Though HUX retains advantages in physical smoothness, this underscores the need for improved evaluation criteria rather than a flaw in SFNO. As a flexible and trainable approach, SFNO enables efficient real-time forecasting and can improve with more data. The source code and more visual results are available at https://github.com/rezmansouri/solarwind-sfno-velocity.

cs.LG

Autoregressive Surrogate Modeling of the Solar Wind with Spherical Fourier Neural Operator

The solar wind, a continuous outflow of charged particles from the Sun's corona, shapes the heliosphere and impacts space systems near Earth. Accurate prediction of features such as high-speed streams and coronal mass ejections is critical for space weather forecasting, but traditional three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models are computationally expensive, limiting rapid exploration of boundary condition uncertainties. We introduce the first autoregressive machine learning surrogate for steady-state solar wind radial velocity using the Spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO). By predicting a limited radial range and iteratively propagating the solution outward, the model improves accuracy in distant regions compared to a single-step approach. Compared with the numerical HUX surrogate, SFNO demonstrates superior or comparable performance while providing a flexible, trainable, and data-driven alternative, establishing a novel methodology for high-fidelity solar wind modeling. The source code and additional visual results are available at https://github.com/rezmansouri/solarwind-sfno-velocity-autoregressive.

cs.LG

Global CME-driven oscillations in the outer solar corona

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are known drivers of large-scale waves in the low corona. However, wave dynamics in the extended corona and inner heliosphere remain largely unexplored. Here, we report the first observational and numerical evidence of coherent global compressive oscillations in the outer corona and inner heliosphere, revealed by white-light SOHO/LASCO C3 data and an MHD simulation. Analyzing the CME event of 2012 July 23 using Spectral Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (SPOD), we isolate two distinct wave signatures: (1) a directional fast-mode shock-like compressive wave that dissipates completely within ~3 hours, and (2) a large-scale global circular wavefront consistent with fast-mode MHD behavior, lasting ~7 hours and extending across the LASCO C3 field of view, marking the first detection of such a global oscillation. Our findings reveal a previously unrecognized component of CME-driven wave activity, providing new constraints on the dynamics of the extended corona and inner heliosphere.

astro-ph.SR

Ion Charge States from a Global Time-Dependent Wave-Turbulence-Driven Model of the Solar Wind: Comparison with in-situ Measurements

Solar wind charge-state measurements contain a wealth of knowledge related to the properties of the solar corona from where they originated. However, their interpretation has remained challenging because it convolves coronal temperature, density, and velocity along the particles' trajectory through the corona before they ``freeze in'' and are convected outward through the solar wind. In this study, we calculate ion charge states by coupling a non-equilibrium ionization model with a global magnetohydrodynamic model of the corona and inner heliosphere. We present results for two periods characteristic of solar minimum and maximum and compare them with observations from the ACE spacecraft. We find that the model reproduces the essential features of the observations, rectifying an earlier inconsistency that was apparent in 1-D calculations, and allows us to unambiguously trace the evolution of charge states from the base of the corona into the solar wind.

physics.space-ph

A coronal mass ejection encountered by four spacecraft within 1 au from the Sun: Ensemble modelling of propagation and magnetic structure

Understanding and predicting the structure and evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the heliosphere remains one of the most sought-after goals in heliophysics and space weather research. A powerful tool for improving current knowledge and capabilities consists of multi-spacecraft observations of the same event, which take place when two or more spacecraft fortuitously find themselves in the path of a single CME. Multi-probe events can not only supply useful data to evaluate the large-scale of CMEs from 1D in-situ trajectories, but also provide additional constraints and validation opportunities for CME propagation models. In this work, we analyse and simulate the coronal and heliospheric evolution of a slow, streamer-blowout CME that erupted on 23 September 2021 and was encountered in situ by four spacecraft approximately equally distributed in heliocentric distance between 0.4 and 1 au. We employ the Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble Information (OSPREI) modelling suite in ensemble mode to predict the CME arrival and structure in a hindcast fashion and to compute the "best-fit" solutions at the different spacecraft individually and together. We find that the spread in the predicted quantities increases with heliocentric distance, suggesting that there may be a maximum (angular and radial) separation between an inner and an outer probe beyond which estimates of the in-situ magnetic field orientation (parameterised by flux rope model geometry) increasingly diverge. We discuss the importance of these exceptional observations and the results of our investigation in the context of advancing our understanding of CME structure and evolution as well as improving space weather forecasts.

astro-ph.SR

Near subsonic solar wind outflow from an active region

During Parker Solar Probe (Parker) Encounter 15 (E15), we observe an 18-hour period of near subsonic ($\mathrm{M_S \sim}$ 1) and sub-Alfv\'enic (SA), $\mathrm{M_A}$ <<< 1, slow speed solar wind from 22 to 15.6 R$_\odot$. As the most extreme SA interval measured to date and skirting the solar wind sonic point, it is the deepest Parker has probed into the formation and acceleration region of the solar wind in the corona. The stream is also measured by Wind and MMS near 1AU at times consistent with ballistic propagation of this slow stream. We investigate the stream source, properties and potential coronal heating consequences via combining these observations with coronal modeling and turbulence analysis. Through source mapping, in situ evidence and multi-point arrival time considerations of a candidate CME, we determine the stream is a steady (non-transient), long-lived and approximately Parker spiral aligned and arises from overexpanded field lines mapping back to an active region. Turbulence analysis of the Els\"{a}sser variables shows the inertial range scaling of the $\mathrm{\mathbf{z}^{+}}$ mode ($\mathrm{f \sim ^{-3/2}}$) to be dominated by the slab component. We discuss the spectral flattening and difficulties associated with measuring the $\mathrm{\mathbf{z}^{-}}$ spectra, cautioning against making definitive conclusions from the $\mathrm{\mathbf{z}^{-}}$ mode. Despite being more extreme than prior sub-Alfv\'enic intervals, its turbulent nature does not appear to be qualitatively different from previously observed streams. We conclude that this extreme low dynamic pressure solar wind interval (which has the potential for extreme space weather conditions) is a large, steady structure spanning at least to 1AU.

astro-ph.SR

Using sunRunner3D to interpret the global structure of the heliosphere from in situ measurements

Understanding the large-scale three-dimensional structure of the inner heliosphere, while important in its own right, is crucial for space weather applications, such as forecasting the time of arrival and propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). This study uses sunRunner3D (3D), a 3-D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model, to simulate solar wind (SW) streams and generate background states. SR3D employs the boundary conditions generated by CORona-HELiosphere (CORHEL) and the PLUTO code to compute the plasma properties of the SW with the MHD approximation up to 1.1 AU in the inner heliosphere. We demonstrate that SR3D reproduces global features of Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) observed by Earth-based spacecraft (OMNI) and the Solar TErrestial RElations Observatory (STEREO)-A for a set of Carrington rotations (CRs) that cover a period that lays in the late declining phase of solar cycle 24. Additionally, we demonstrate that the model solutions are valid in the corotating and inertial frames of references. Moreover, a comparison between SR3D simulations and in-situ measurements shows reasonable agreement with the observations, and our results are comparable to those achieved by Predictive Science Inc.'s Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere (MAS) code. We have also undertaken a comparative analysis with the Space Weather Adaptive Simulation Framework for Solar Wind (SWASTi-SW), a PLUTO physics-based model, to evaluate the precision of various initial boundary conditions. Finally, we discuss the disparities in the solutions derived from inertial and rotating frames.

astro-ph.SR

CORHEL-CME: An Interactive Tool For Modeling Solar Eruptions

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are immense eruptions of plasma and magnetic fields that are propelled outward from the Sun, sometimes with velocities greater than 2000 km/s. They are responsible for some of the most severe space weather at Earth, including geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP) events. We have developed CORHEL-CME, an interactive tool that allows non-expert users to routinely model multiple CMEs in a realistic coronal and heliospheric environment. The tool features a web-based user interface that allows the user to select a time period of interest, and employs RBSL flux ropes to create stable and unstable pre-eruptive configurations within a background global magnetic field. The properties of these configurations can first be explored in a zero-beta magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model, followed by complete CME simulations in thermodynamic MHD, with propagation out to 1 AU. We describe design features of the interface and computations, including the innovations required to efficiently compute results on practical timescales with moderate computational resources. CORHEL-CME is now implemented at NASA's Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) using NASA Amazon Web Services (AWS). It will be available to the public by the time this paper is published.

astro-ph.SR

Compositional metrics of fast and slow Alfvenic solar wind emerging from coronal holes and their boundaries

We seek to understand the composition and variability of fast (FSW) and slow Alfvenic solar wind (SASW) emerging from coronal holes (CH). We leverage an opportune conjunction between Solar Orbiter and Parker Solar Probe (PSP) during PSP Encounter 11 to include compositional diagnostics from the Solar Orbiter heavy ion sensor (HIS) as these variations provide crucial insights into the origin and nature of the solar wind. We use Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) and Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models to connect the observed plasma at PSP and Solar Orbiter to its origin footpoint in the photosphere, and compare these results with the in situ measurements. A very clear signature of a heliospheric current sheet (HCS) crossing as evidenced by enhancements in low FIP elements, ion charge state ratios, proton density, low-Alfvenicity, and polarity estimates validates the combination of modeling, data, and mapping. We identify two FSW streams emerging from small equatorial coronal holes (CH) with low ion charge state ratios, low FIP bias, high-Alfvenicity, and low footpoint brightness, yet anomalously low alpha particle abundance for both streams. We identify high-Alfvenicity slow solar wind emerging from the over-expanded boundary of a CH having intermediate alpha abundance, high-Alfvenicity, and dips in ion charge state ratios corresponding to CH boundaries. Through this comprehensive analysis, we highlight the power of multi-instrument conjunction studies in assessing the sources of the solar wind.

astro-ph.SR

Global MHD Simulations of the Time-Dependent Corona

We describe, test, and apply a technique to incorporate full-sun, surface flux evolution into an MHD model of the global solar corona. Requiring only maps of the evolving surface flux, our method is similar to that of Lionello et al. (2013), but we introduce two ways to correct the electric field at the lower boundary to mitigate spurious currents. We verify the accuracy of our procedures by comparing to a reference simulation, driven with known flows and electric fields. We then present a thermodynamic MHD calculation lasting one solar rotation driven by maps from the magnetic flux evolution model of Schrijver & DeRosa (2003). The dynamic, time-dependent nature of the model corona is illustrated by examining the evolution of the open flux boundaries and forward modeled EUV emission, which evolve in response to surface flows and the emergence and cancellation flux. Although our main goal is to present the method, we briefly investigate the relevance of this evolution to properties of the slow solar wind, examining the mapping of dipped field lines to the topological signatures of the "S-Web" and comparing charge state ratios computed in the time-dependently driven run to a steady state equivalent. Interestingly, we find that driving on its own does not significantly improve the charge states ratios, at least in this modest resolution run that injects minimal helicity. Still, many aspects of the time-dependently driven model cannot be captured with traditional steady-state methods, and such a technique may be particularly relevant for the next generation of solar wind and CME models.

astro-ph.SR

Bayesian Inference and Global Sensitivity Analysis for Ambient Solar Wind Prediction

The ambient solar wind plays a significant role in propagating interplanetary coronal mass ejections and is an important driver of space weather geomagnetic storms. A computationally efficient and widely used method to predict the ambient solar wind radial velocity near Earth involves coupling three models: Potential Field Source Surface, Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA), and Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation. However, the model chain has eleven uncertain parameters that are mainly non-physical due to empirical relations and simplified physics assumptions. We, therefore, propose a comprehensive uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework that is able to successfully quantify and reduce parametric uncertainties in the model chain. The UQ framework utilizes variance-based global sensitivity analysis followed by Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo to learn the posterior densities of the most influential parameters. The sensitivity analysis results indicate that the five most influential parameters are all WSA parameters. Additionally, we show that the posterior densities of such influential parameters vary greatly from one Carrington rotation to the next. The influential parameters are trying to overcompensate for the missing physics in the model chain, highlighting the need to enhance the robustness of the model chain to the choice of WSA parameters. The ensemble predictions generated from the learned posterior densities significantly reduce the uncertainty in solar wind velocity predictions near Earth.

physics.space-ph

Which Upstream Solar Wind Conditions Matter Most in Predicting Bz within Coronal Mass Ejections

Accurately predicting the z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field, particularly during the passage of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME), is a crucial objective for space weather predictions. Currently, only a handful of techniques have been proposed and they remain limited in scope and accuracy. Recently, a robust machine learning (ML) technique was developed for predicting the minimum value of Bz within ICMEs based on a set of 42 'features', that is, variables calculated from measured quantities upstream of the ICME and within its sheath region. In this study, we investigate these so-called explanatory variables in more detail, focusing on those that were (1) statistically significant; and (2) most important. We find that number density and magnetic field strength accounted for a large proportion of the variability. These features capture the degree to which the ICME compresses the ambient solar wind ahead. Intuitively, this makes sense: Energy made available to CMEs as they erupt is partitioned into magnetic and kinetic energy. Thus, more powerful CMEs are launched with larger flux-rope fields (larger Bz), at greater speeds, resulting in more sheath compression (increased number density and total field strength).

physics.space-ph

Modeling CME encounters at Parker Solar Probe with OSPREI: Dependence on photospheric and coronal conditions

Context: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are eruptions of plasma from the Sun that travel through interplanetary space and may encounter Earth. CMEs often enclose a magnetic flux rope (MFR), the orientation of which largely determines the CME's geoeffectiveness. Current operational CME models do not model MFRs, but a number of research ones do, including the Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble Information (OSPREI) model. Aims: We report the sensitivity of OSPREI to a range of user-selected photospheric and coronal conditions. Methods: We model four separate CMEs observed in situ by Parker Solar Probe (PSP). We vary the input photospheric conditions using four input magnetograms (HMI Synchronic, HMI Synoptic, GONG Synoptic Zero-Point Corrected, and GONG ADAPT). To vary the coronal field reconstruction, we employ the Potential-Field Source-Surface (PFSS) model and we vary its source-surface height in the range 1.5--3.0 R$_{\odot}$ with 0.1 R$_{\odot}$ increments. Results: We find that both the input magnetogram and PFSS source surface often affect the evolution of the CME as it propagates through the Sun's corona into interplanetary space, and therefore the accuracy of the MFR prediction compared to in-situ data at PSP. There is no obvious best combination of input magnetogram and PFSS source surface height. Conclusions: The OSPREI model is moderately sensitive to the input photospheric and coronal conditions. Based on where the source region of the CME is located on the Sun, there may be best practices when selecting an input magnetogram to use.

astro-ph.SR

Prediction and Verification of Parker Solar Probe Solar Wind Sources at 13.3 R$_\odot$

Drawing connections between heliospheric spacecraft and solar wind sources is a vital step in understanding the evolution of the solar corona into the solar wind and contextualizing \textit{in situ} timeseries. Furthermore, making advanced predictions of this linkage for ongoing heliospheric missions, such as Parker Solar Probe (PSP), is necessary for achieving useful coordinated remote observations and maximizing scientific return. The general procedure for estimating such connectivity is straightforward (i.e. magnetic field line tracing in a coronal model) but validating the resulting estimates difficult due to the lack of an independent ground truth and limited model constraints. In its most recent orbits, PSP has reached perihelia of 13.3$R_\odot$ and moreover travels extremely fast prograde relative to the solar surface, covering over 120 degrees longitude in three days. Here we present footpoint predictions and subsequent validation efforts for PSP Encounter 10, the first of the 13.3$R_\odot$ orbits, which occurred in November 2021. We show that the longitudinal dependence of \textit{in situ} plasma data from these novel orbits provides a powerful method of footpoint validation. With reference to other encounters, we also illustrate that the conditions under which source mapping is most accurate for near-ecliptic spacecraft (such as PSP) occur when solar activity is low, but also requires that the heliospheric current sheet is strongly warped by mid-latitude or equatorial coronal holes. Lastly, we comment on the large-scale coronal structure implied by the Encounter 10 mapping, highlighting an empirical equatorial cut of the Alfv\`{e}n surface consisting of localized protrusions above unipolar magnetic separatrices.

astro-ph.SR

Quantifying errors in 3D CME parameters derived from synthetic data using white-light reconstruction techniques

(Shortened version) Current efforts in space weather forecasting of CMEs have been focused on predicting their arrival time and magnetic structure. To make predictions, methods have been developed to derive the true CME speed, size and position, among others. Difficulties in determining input parameters for CME forecasting arise from the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and uncertainties in estimating the CME 3D geometric and kinematic parameters. White-light coronagraph images are usually employed by a variety of CME reconstruction techniques. We explore how subjectivity affects the 3D CME parameters that are obtained from the GCS reconstruction technique. We have designed two different synthetic scenarios where the ``true'' geometric parameters are known in order to quantify such uncertainties for the first time. We explore this as follows: 1) Using the ray-tracing option from the GCS model software, and 2) Using 3D MHD simulation data from the MAS code. Our experiment includes different viewing configurations using single and multiple viewpoints. CME reconstructions using a single viewpoint had the largest errors and error ranges for both synthetic GCS and simulated MHD white-light data. Increasing the number of viewpoints to two, the errors decreased by about 4$^\circ$ in latitude, 22$^\circ$ in longitude, 14$^\circ$ in tilt, and 10$^\circ$ in half-angle, pointing towards a need for at least two viewpoints. We found the following CME parameter error bars as a starting point for quantifying the minimum error in CME parameters from white-light reconstructions: $\Delta\theta$ (latitude)=${6^\circ}$, $\Delta\phi$ (longitude)=${11^\circ}$, $\Delta\gamma$ (tilt)=${25^\circ}$, $\Delta\alpha$ (half-angle)=${10^\circ}$, $\Delta h$ (height)=$0.6 R_{\odot}$, and $\Delta\kappa$ (ratio)=$0.1$.

astro-ph.SR

A data-driven physics-based transport model of solar energetic particles accelerated by coronal mass ejection shocks propagating through the solar coronal and heliospheric magnetic fields

In an effort to develop computational tools for predicting radiation hazards from solar energetic particles (SEPs), we have created a data-driven physics-based particle transport model to calculate the injection, acceleration and propagation of SEPs from coronal mass ejection (CME) shocks traversing through the solar corona and interplanetary magnetic fields. The model runs on an input of corona and heliospheric plasma and magnetic field configuration from an MHD model driven by solar photospheric magnetic field measurements superposed with observed CME shocks determined from coronagraph images. Using several advanced computation techniques involving stochastic simulation and integration, it rigorously solves the time-dependent 5-dimensional focus transport equation in the phase space that includes pitch-angle scattering, diffusion across magnetic field line, and particle acceleration by CME shocks. We apply the model to the 2011 November 3 CME event. The calculation results reproduce multi-spacecraft SEP observations reasonably well without normalization of particle flux. This circumsolar SEP event seen by spacecraft at Earth, STEREO-A and STEREO-B at widely separated longitudes can be explained by diffusive shock acceleration by a single CME shock with a moderate speed.

astro-ph.SR