arXiv subjects

Peter Ashwin

Publications and source records attributed to Peter Ashwin.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Renormalization of Translated Cone Exchange Transformations

In this paper, we investigate a class of non-invertible piecewise isometries on the upper half-plane known as Translated Cone Exchanges. These maps include a simple interval exchange on a boundary we call the baseline. We provide a geometric construction for the first return map to a neighbourhood of the vertex of the middle cone for a large class of parameters, then we show a recurrence in the first return map tied to Diophantine properties of the parameters, and subsequently prove the infinite renormalizability of the first return map for these parameters.

math.DS↗

arXiv2024

Contrasting chaotic and stochastic forcing: tipping windows and attractor crises

Nonlinear dynamical systems subjected to a combination of noise and time-varying forcing can exhibit sudden changes, critical transitions or tipping points where large or rapid dynamic effects arise from changes in a parameter that are small or slow. Noise-induced tipping can occur where extremes of the forcing causes the system to leave one attractor and transition to another. If this noise corresponds to unresolved chaotic forcing, there is a limit such that this can be approximated by a stochastic differential equation (SDE) and the statistics of large deviations determine the transitions. Away from this limit it makes sense to consider tipping in the presence of chaotic rather than stochastic forcing. In general we argue that close to a parameter value where there is a bifurcation of the unforced system, there will be a chaotic tipping window outside of which tipping cannot happen, in the limit of asymptotically slow change of that parameter. This window is trivial for a stochastically forced system. Entry into the chaotic tipping window can be seen as a boundary crisis/non-autonomous saddle-node bifurcation and corresponds to an exceptional case of the forcing, typically by an unstable periodic orbit. We discuss an illustrative example of a chaotically forced bistable map that highlight the richness of the geometry and bifurcation structure of the dynamics in this case. If a parameter is changing slowly we note there is a dynamic tipping window that can also be determined in terms of unstable periodic orbits.

nlin.CD↗

arXiv2023

Transitions in echo index and dependence on input repetitions

The echo index counts the number of simultaneously stable asymptotic responses of a nonautonomous (i.e. input-driven) dynamical system. It generalizes the well-known echo state property for recurrent neural networks - this corresponds to the echo index being equal to one. In this paper, we investigate how the echo index depends on parameters that govern typical responses to a finite-state ergodic external input that forces the dynamics. We consider the echo index for a nonautonomous system that switches between a finite set of maps, where we assume that each map possesses a finite set of hyperbolic equilibrium attractors. We find the minimum and maximum repetitions of each map are crucial for the resulting echo index. Casting our theoretical findings in the RNN computing framework, we obtain that for small amplitude forcing the echo index corresponds to the number of attractors for the input-free system, while for large amplitude forcing, the echo index reduces to one. The intermediate regime is the most interesting; in this region the echo index depends not just on the amplitude of forcing but also on more subtle properties of the input.

math.DS↗

arXiv2023

Rate-Induced Tipping: Thresholds, Edge States and Connecting Orbits

Rate-induced tipping (R-tipping) occurs when time-variation of input parameters of a dynamical system interacts with system timescales to give genuine nonautonomous instabilities. Such instabilities appear as the input varies at some critical rates and cannot, in general, be understood in terms of autonomous bifurcations in the frozen system with a fixed-in-time input. This paper develops an accessible mathematical framework for R-tipping in multidimensional nonautonomous dynamical systems with an autonomous future limit. We focus on R-tipping via loss of tracking of base attractors that are equilibria in the frozen system, due to crossing what we call regular thresholds. These thresholds are associated with regular edge states: compact hyperbolic invariant sets with one unstable direction and orientable stable manifold, that lie on a basin boundary in the frozen system. We define R-tipping and critical rates for the nonautonomous system in terms of special solutions that limit to a compact invariant set of the future limit system that is not an attractor. We focus on the case when the limit set is a regular edge state, which we call the regular R-tipping edge state that anchors the associated regular R-tipping threshold at infinity. We introduce the concept of edge tails to rigorously classify R-tipping into reversible, irreversible, and degenerate cases. The main idea is to compactify the problem and use regular edge states of the future limit system to analyse R-tipping in the nonautonomous system. This allows us to give sufficient conditions for the occurrence of R-tipping in terms of easily testable properties of the frozen system and input variation, and necessary and sufficient conditions for the occurrence of reversible and irreversible R-tipping in terms of computationally verifiable (heteroclinic) connections to regular R-tipping edge states in the compactified system.

math.DS↗

arXiv2022

Quasipotentials for coupled escape problems and the gate-height bifurcation

The escape statistics of a gradient dynamical system perturbed by noise can be estimated using properties of the associated potential landscape. More generally, the Freidlin and Wentzell quasipotential (QP) can be used for similar purposes, but computing this is non-trivial and it is only defined relative to some starting point. In this paper we focus on computing quasipotentials for coupled bistable units, numerically solving a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman type problem. We analyse noise induced transitions using the QP in cases where there is no potential for the coupled system. Gates (points on the boundary of basin of attraction that have minimal QP relative to that attractor) are used to understand the escape rates from the basin, but these gates can undergo a global change as coupling strength is changed. Such a global gate-height bifurcation is a generic qualitative transitions in the escape properties of parametrised non-gradient dynamical systems for small noise.

math.DS↗

arXiv2022

Reduction Methods in Climate Dynamics -- A Brief Review

We review a range of reduction methods that have been, or may be useful for connecting models of the Earth's climate system of differing complexity. We particularly focus on methods where rigorous reduction is possible. We aim to highlight the main mathematical ideas of each reduction method and also provide several benchmark examples from climate modelling.

math.DS↗

arXiv2022

Climate Response and Sensitivity: Timescales and Late Tipping Points

Climate response metrics are used to quantify the Earth's climate response to anthropogenic changes of atmospheric CO2. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is one such metric that measures the equilibrium response to CO2 doubling. However, both in their estimation and their usage, such metrics make assumptions on the linearity of climate response, although it is known that, especially for larger forcing levels, response can be nonlinear. Such nonlinear responses may become visible immediately in response to a larger perturbation, or may only become apparent after a long transient. In this paper, we illustrate some potential problems and caveats when estimating ECS from transient simulations. We highlight ways that very slow timescales may lead to poor estimation of ECS even if there is seemingly good fit to linear response over moderate timescales. Moreover, such slow timescale might lead to late abrupt responses ("late tipping points") associated with a system's nonlinearities. We illustrate these ideas using simulations on a global energy balance model with dynamic albedo. We also discuss the implications for estimating ECS for global climate models, highlighting that it is likely to remain difficult to make definitive statements about the simulation times needed to reach an equilibrium.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2021

Uniting Parametric Uncertainty and Tipping Diagrams

Various subsystems of the Earth system may undergo critical transitions by passing a so-called tipping point, under sustained changes to forcing. For example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is of particular importance for North Atlantic heat transport and is thought to be potentially at risk of tipping. Given a model of such a subsystem that accurately includes the relevant physical processes, whether tipping occurs or not, will depend on model parameters that typically are uncertain. Reducing this parametric uncertainty is important to understand the likelihood of tipping behavior being present in the system and possible tipping locations. In this letter, we develop improved estimates for the parametric uncertainty by inferring probability distributions for the model parameters based on physical constraints and by using a Bayesian inversion technique. To visualize the impact of parametric uncertainty, we extend classical tipping diagrams by visualizing probabilistic bifurcation curves according to the inferred distribution of the model parameter. Furthermore, we highlight the uncertain locations of tipping points along the probabilistic bifurcation curves. We showcase our probabilistic visualizations of the tipping behavior using a simple box-model of the AMOC, the Stommel-Cessi model [5].

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2021

Dead zones and phase reduction of coupled oscillators

A dead zone in the interaction between two dynamical systems is a region of their joint phase space where one system is insensitive to the changes in the other. These can arise in a number of contexts, and their presence in phase interaction functions has interesting dynamical consequences for the emergent dynamics. In this paper, we consider dead zones in the interaction of general coupled dynamical systems. For weakly coupled limit cycle oscillators, we investigate criteria that give rise to dead zones in the phase interaction functions. We give applications to coupled multiscale oscillators where coupling on only one branch of a relaxation oscillation can lead to the appearance of dead zones in a phase description of their interaction.

math.DS↗

arXiv2021

Excitable Networks for Finite State Computation with Continuous Time Recurrent Neural Networks

Continuous time recurrent neural networks (CTRNN) are systems of coupled ordinary differential equations that are simple enough to be insightful for describing learning and computation, from both biological and machine learning viewpoints. We describe a direct constructive method of realising finite state input-dependent computations on an arbitrary directed graph. The constructed system has an excitable network attractor whose dynamics we illustrate with a number of examples. The resulting CTRNN has intermittent dynamics: trajectories spend long periods of time close to steady-state, with rapid transitions between states. Depending on parameters, transitions between states can either be excitable (inputs or noise needs to exceed a threshold to induce the transition), or spontaneous (transitions occur without input or noise). In the excitable case, we show the threshold for excitability can be made arbitrarily sensitive.

math.DS↗

arXiv2021

Quantification and interpretation of the climate variability record

The spectral view of variability is a compelling and adaptable tool for understanding variability of the climate. In Mitchell (1976) seminal paper, it was used to express, on one graph with log scales, a very wide range of climate variations from millions of years to days. The spectral approach is particularly useful for suggesting causal links between forcing variability and climate response variability. However, a substantial degree of variability is intrinsic and the Earth system may respond to external forcing in a complex manner. There has been an enormous amount of work on understanding climate variability over the last decades. Hence in this paper, we address the question: Can we (after 40 years) update the Mitchell (1976) diagram and provide it with a better interpretation? By reviewing both the extended observations available for such a diagram and new methodological developments in the study of the interaction between internal and forced variability over a wide range of timescales, we give a positive answer to this question. In addition, we review alternative approaches to the spectral decomposition and pose some challenges for a more detailed quantification of climate variability.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2020

Weak tracking in nonautonomous chaotic systems

Previous studies have shown that rate-induced transitions can occur in pullback attractors of systems subject to "parameter shifts" between two asymptotically steady values of a system parameter. For cases where the attractors limit to equilibrium or periodic orbit in past and future limits of such an nonautonomous systems, these can occur as the parameter change passes through a critical rate. Such rate-induced transitions for attractors that limit to chaotic attractors in past or future limits has been less examined. In this paper, we identify a new phenomenon is associated with more complex attractors in the future limit: weak tracking, where a pullback attractor of the system limits to a proper subset of an attractor of the future limit system. We demonstrate weak tracking in a nonautonomous Rössler system, and argue there are infinitely many critical rates at each of which the pullback attracting solution of the system tracks an embedded unstable periodic orbit of the future chaotic attractor. We also state some necessary conditions that are needed for weak tracking.

math.DS↗

arXiv2020

The Echo Index and multistability in input-driven recurrent neural networks

A recurrent neural network (RNN) possesses the echo state property (ESP) if, for a given input sequence, it ``forgets'' any internal states of the driven (nonautonomous) system and asymptotically follows a unique, possibly complex trajectory. The lack of ESP is conventionally understood as a lack of reliable behaviour in RNNs. Here, we show that RNNs can reliably perform computations under a more general principle that accounts only for their local behaviour in phase space. To this end, we formulate a generalisation of the ESP and introduce an echo index to characterise the number of simultaneously stable responses of a driven RNN. We show that it is possible for the echo index to change with inputs, highlighting a potential source of computational errors in RNNs due to characteristics of the inputs driving the dynamics.

math.DS↗

arXiv2019

Extreme sensitivity and climate tipping points

A climate state close to a tipping point will have a degenerate linear response to perturbations, which can be associated with extreme values of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this paper we contrast linearized (`instantaneous') with fully nonlinear geometric (`two-point') notions of ECS, in both presence and absence of tipping points. For a stochastic energy balance model of the global mean surface temperature with two stable regimes, we confirm that tipping events cause the appearance of extremes in both notions of ECS. Moreover, multiple regimes with different mean sensitivities are visible in the two-point ECS. We confirm some of our findings in a physics-based multi-box model of the climate system.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2019

Bifurcation of critical sets and relaxation oscillations in singular fast-slow systems

Fast-slow dynamical systems have subsystems that evolve on vastly different timescales, and bifurcations in such systems can arise due to changes in any or all subsystems. We classify bifurcations of the critical set (the equilibria of the fast subsystem) and associated fast dynamics, parametrized by the slow variables. Using a distinguished parameter approach we are able to classify bifurcations for one fast and one slow variable. Some of these bifurcations are associated with the critical set losing manifold structure. We also conjecture a list of generic bifurcations of the critical set for one fast and two slow variables. We further consider how the bifurcations of the critical set can be associated with generic bifurcations of attracting relaxation oscillations under an appropriate singular notion of equivalence.

math.DS↗

arXiv2019

State-dependent effective interactions in oscillator networks through coupling functions with dead zones

The dynamics of networks of interacting dynamical systems depend on the nature of the coupling between individual units. We explore networks of oscillatory units with coupling functions that have "dead zones", that is, the coupling functions are zero on sets with interior. For such networks, it is convenient to look at the effective interactions between units rather than the (fixed) structural connectivity to understand the network dynamics. For example, oscillators may effectively decouple in particular phase configurations. Along trajectories the effective interactions are not necessarily static, but the effective coupling may evolve in time. Here, we formalize the concepts of dead zones and effective interactions. We elucidate how the coupling function shapes the possible effective interaction schemes and how they evolve in time.

math.DS↗

arXiv2019

Basin bifurcations, oscillatory instability and rate-induced thresholds for AMOC in a global oceanic box model

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) transports substantial amounts of heat into the North Atlantic sector, and hence is of very high importance in regional climate projections. The AMOC has been observed to show multi-stability across a range of models of different complexity. The simplest models find a bifurcation associated with the AMOC `on' state losing stability that is a saddle node. Here we study a physically derived global oceanic model of Wood {\em et al} with five boxes, that is calibrated to runs of the FAMOUS coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. We find the loss of stability of the `on' state is due to a subcritical Hopf for parameters from both pre-industrial and doubled CO${}_2$ atmospheres. This loss of stability via subcritical Hopf bifurcation has important consequences for the behaviour of the basin of attraction close to bifurcation. We consider various time-dependent profiles of freshwater forcing to the system, and find that rate-induced thresholds for tipping can appear, even for perturbations that do not cross the bifurcation. Understanding how such state transitions occur is important in determining allowable safe climate change mitigation pathways to avoid collapse of the AMOC.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2019

Almost complete and equable heteroclinic networks

Heteroclinic connections are trajectories that link invariant sets for an autonomous dynamical flow: these connections can robustly form networks between equilibria, for systems with flow-invariant spaces. In this paper we examine the relation between the heteroclinic network as a flow-invariant set and directed graphs of possible connections between nodes. We consider realizations of a large class of transitive digraphs as robust heteroclinic networks and show that although robust realizations are typically not complete (i.e. not all unstable manifolds of nodes are part of the network), they can be almost complete (i.e. complete up to a set of zero measure within the unstable manifold) and equable (i.e. all sets of connections from a node have the same dimension). We show there are almost complete and equable realizations that can be closed by adding a number of extra nodes and connections. We discuss some examples and describe a sense in which an equable almost complete network embedding is an optimal description of stochastically perturbed motion on the network.

math.DS↗