arXiv subjects

Peter Clark

Publications and source records attributed to Peter Clark.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Stacked Reverberation Mapping of High Redshift Quasars in DESI. I. Feasibility Analysis

The broad line region of quasars has long been probed by reverberation mapping techniques that measure time lags between continuum and broad emission line variations. Stacked reverberation mapping has been proposed as a less observationally expensive alternative to traditional methods. This ensemble approach also reduces biases from small-number statistics. The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) is conducting the most extensive spectroscopic survey of quasars to date. We create mock light curves emulating expected DESI quasar observations at redshifts $1.48<z<5.2$ and luminosities $ 44.68 \leq \log L_{1350} \lambda / \mathrm{erg\,s^{-1}} \leq 45.99 $ to test stacked reverberation mapping feasibility using sparse spectroscopic data paired with well-sampled photometric data. The pipeline, using the lag estimation code JAVELIN, successfully recovers the simulated C IV lags within one sigma of the true values using spectroscopic light curves composed of only a few spectral epochs (2-10) with irregular cadences. We investigate how observational factors, including C IV flux error magnitude, number of stacked quasars, and spectral epoch count, affect performance. This work motivates a pathway for future stacked reverberation mapping projects with large scale spectroscopic surveys of quasars having $\geq 2$ spectroscopic observations. Our results suggest an economical alternative for constraining and extending the radius-luminosity relation to higher redshifts and luminosities. Subsequently, this relation can be employed more reliably in single-epoch black hole mass measurements and quasar cosmology in these distant regimes.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

Active galactic nuclei are not responsible for systematics in the empirical properties of type Ia supernovae

Despite being key cosmological anchors, the empirical properties of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) remain subject to significant systematic uncertainties, the largest of which being their astrophysics and how this is linked to their environment. The relative importance of these uncertainties will grow as larger observational samples reduce statistical uncertainties. Here I explore if the presence of an active galactic nucleus (AGN) within a portion of SN Ia host galaxies could be one such systematic uncertainty. With the ZTF SNe Ia DR2 sample I find that, in the low redshift regime (z < 0.15), the presence of AGNs in some SN Ia hosts does not produce a significant systematic effect on their measured Hubble residuals.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Evidence-Informed LLM Beliefs for Continual Scientific Discovery

Open-ended scientific discovery with large language models (LLMs) increasingly operates as a long-horizon loop of hypothesis search and verification, where a reward signal guides which hypotheses to test next. A notable recent example is AutoDiscovery, which uses "Bayesian surprise" - the belief shift an LLM undergoes after observing evidence for a hypothesis - as both a discovery metric and a reward for search. We first observe that AutoDiscovery treats surprisal as a static quantity, while surprisal in human reasoning is non-stationary - it is defined relative to beliefs that evolve with experience, a prerequisite for continual scientific discovery. We address this mismatch with evidence-informed LLM beliefs: priors updated with evidence from previous hypotheses to compute non-stationary surprisal for new hypotheses. We compare in-context belief-updating mechanisms and find that embedding-based retrieval-augmented generation over prior discoveries best anticipates eventual posteriors, identifying 37.5% of static surprisals as spurious. We then modify search to avoid these spurious rewards and prioritize hypotheses that remain surprising under non-stationary beliefs. Concretely, we introduce two complementary changes to the original search procedure: belief-update filtering and diversity maximization. Across five discovery domains, our method increases accumulated non-stationary surprisal by 30.62% on average compared to the original search procedure, demonstrating that continual scientific discovery with LLMs requires not only better belief measurement but also search procedures that avoid redundancy and encourage diversity.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Mapping the nuclear environments of extreme coronal line emitting galaxies

Extreme coronal line emitters (ECLEs) are a rare class of galactic nuclei exhibiting unusually strong high-ionisation forbidden emission lines, and several ECLEs have been linked to tidal disruption events (TDEs). In this work, we compile and analyse optical spectra of 33 ECLEs, dividing them into variable, TDE-linked sources and non-variable, AGN-linked systems. Using multi-epoch spectroscopy from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument, and other facilities, we investigate the evolution of the emission line spectra and measure emission line profiles. Many variable ECLEs have changing spectra in which the highest-ionisation lines (e.g., [Fe X]-[Fe XIV]) appear and fade first, followed by [Fe VII], accompanied by brightening of [O III]. These changes may reflect a softening ionising continuum, the outward propagation of the ionisation front following the TDE flare, or both. Assuming virial motion, we translate line widths into characteristic radial distances, reconstructing the spatial distribution of line-emitting gas. Coronal lines are generally emitted at radii intermediate between the broad line region and the low-ionisation narrow line region. This ionisation stratification is seen in many sources, with similar incidence in variable and non-variable ECLEs, suggesting no apparent difference in circumnuclear gas distributions between active and quiescent nuclei. We find positive correlations between gas distance and black hole mass for both [O III] and [Fe VII]: the log(Distance)-log(Mass) relations have slopes $0.63\pm0.08$ and $0.69\pm0.12$, respectively, broadly consistent with a Mass$^{0.5}$ dependence and with characteristic radii set primarily by photoionisation.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI

AI systems are increasingly used to support forward-looking scientific judgment, but it remains unclear whether they can form reliable expectations about future scientific advances. Here we show that strong scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into accurate forecasting of future scientific advances. To study this question, we introduce CUSP, a temporally grounded evaluation suite for event-level scientific forecasting across eight scientific disciplines. Across six frontier AI models, we observe a striking asymmetry in forecasting performance together with systematic error patterns. Models often identify plausible mechanisms underlying future scientific advances, yet perform near chance on feasibility assessment, generate solution strategies that only weakly align with realized advances, and systematically predict scientific advances later than they become publicly observable. Providing additional pre-cutoff scientific knowledge improves performance but does not eliminate these forecasting limitations. These findings suggest that current AI systems possess substantial retrospective scientific competence but limited forward-looking predictive capability. Scientific forecasting should therefore be evaluated as a complementary dimension of AI scientific capability when deploying AI systems for research prioritization and scientific decision-making.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

ArtifactLinker: Linking Scientific Artifacts for Automatic State-of-the-Art Discovery

Scientific artifacts such as models and datasets are foundations for research. With the rapid growth of platforms like HuggingFace, researchers now have access to a large number of artifacts. Yet, a key challenge remains: how can we automatically discover the state-of-the-art (SOTA) model for a given dataset by fully leveraging existing artifacts? We formalize this task as automatic SOTA discovery by modeling HuggingFace as an artifact graph, where nodes are models/datasets and edges represent evaluations. We propose ArtifactLinker, a two-stage framework: (1) ranking promising unobserved model--dataset links using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) or graph-augmented Large Language Models (LLMs), and (2) verifying top-ranked links via coding experiments with LLM-based agents. We further introduce a benchmark named ArtifactBench with 14,053 artifacts and 51,337 relations to evaluate the performance of both stages. Results show that (1) graph structures between existing artifacts are effective for missing link prediction; (2) end-to-end ranking and verification with ArtifactLinker help discover potential SOTA results and research insights.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Static Attribution of Android Residential Proxy Malware Using Graph Kernels

Android residential proxy applications represent a growing class of potentially-unwanted programs (PUPs) that covertly route third-party traffic through end-user devices, enabling ad fraud, credential abuse, and evasion of geolocation controls by sophisticated threat actors. Attributing an unknown APK to a specific proxy network remains challenging due to code reuse, SDK embedding, and obfuscation across proxy families. We present a static-analysis pipeline for automated proxyware family attribution, extracting graph-structured representations (control-flow and function-call graphs) and behavioral signatures from a labeled corpus of 3,365 Android proxy apps spanning four commercial proxy networks. We evaluate Weisfeiler-Lehman graph kernel features alone and fused with binary capability vectors across multiple classifiers. Using 5-fold DEX-grouped cross-validation to prevent data leakage, SGD achieves a macro F1 of 0.985 on the expanded dataset. To support explainability, we map classifier decisions to automatically generated Yara rules, achieving per-family accuracies up to 88.45\% after filtering non-discriminative signatures. Finally, we discuss these results in the context of the broader ecosystem. We find that from the expanded dataset, the majority of applications (51.4\%) still available through APKPure still contain embedded proxy SDK code. Further analysis of developer accounts reveals that 23 developers are responsible for other applications also containing such functionality, suggesting continuous and ongoing commercial relationships between proxy providers and developers.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2026

Early results in the search for extreme coronal line emitters with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument

Here we present the results of our search through the Early Data Release (EDR) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) for extreme coronal line emitters (ECLEs) - a rare classification of galaxies displaying strong, high-ionization iron coronal emission lines within their spectra. With the requirement of a strong X-ray continuum to generate the coronal emission, ECLEs have been linked to both active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and tidal disruption events (TDEs). We focus our search on identifying TDE-linked ECLEs. We identify three such objects within the EDR sample, highlighting DESI's effectiveness for discovering new nuclear transients, and determine a galaxy-normalized TDE-linked ECLE rate of $R_\mathrm{G}=5~^{+5}_{-3}\times10^{-6}~\mathrm{galaxy}^{-1}~\mathrm{yr}^{-1}$ at a median redshift of z = 0.2 - broadly consistent with previous works. Additionally, we also identify more than 200 AGNs displaying coronal emission lines, which serve as the primary astrophysical contaminants in searches for TDE-related events. We also include an outline of the custom python code developed for this search.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Generating Literature-Driven Scientific Theories at Scale

Contemporary automated scientific discovery has focused on agents for generating scientific experiments, while systems that perform higher-level scientific activities such as theory building remain underexplored. In this work, we formulate the problem of synthesizing theories consisting of qualitative and quantitative laws from large corpora of scientific literature. We study theory generation at scale, using 13.7k source papers to synthesize 2.9k theories, examining how generation using literature-grounding versus parametric knowledge, and accuracy-focused versus novelty-focused generation objectives change theory properties. Our experiments show that, compared to using parametric LLM memory for generation, our literature-supported method creates theories that are significantly better at both matching existing evidence and at predicting future results from 4.6k subsequently-written papers

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

AstaBench: Rigorous Benchmarking of AI Agents with a Scientific Research Suite

AI agents hold the potential to revolutionize scientific productivity by automating literature reviews, replicating experiments, analyzing data, and even proposing new directions of inquiry; indeed, there are now many such agents, ranging from general-purpose "deep research" systems to specialized science-specific agents, such as AI Scientist and AIGS. Rigorous evaluation of these agents is critical for progress. Yet existing benchmarks fall short on several fronts: they often (1) lack reproducible agent tools necessary for a controlled comparison of core agentic capabilities; (2) do not account for confounding variables such as model cost and tool access; (3) do not provide standardized interfaces for quick agent prototyping and evaluation; (4) fail to provide holistic, product-informed measures of real-world use cases such as science research; and (5) lack comprehensive baseline agents necessary to identify true advances. In response, we define principles and tooling for more rigorously benchmarking agents. Using these, we present AstaBench, a suite that provides a holistic measure of agentic ability to perform scientific research, comprising 2400+ problems spanning the entire scientific discovery process and multiple scientific domains, and including many problems inspired by actual user requests to deployed Asta agents. Our suite comes with the first scientific research environment with production-grade search tools that enable controlled, reproducible evaluation, better accounting for confounders. Alongside, we provide a comprehensive suite of nine science-optimized classes of Asta agents and numerous baselines. Our extensive evaluation of 57 agents across 22 agent classes reveals several interesting findings, most importantly that despite meaningful progress on certain individual aspects, AI remains far from solving the challenge of science research assistance.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

HARPA: A Testability-Driven, Literature-Grounded Framework for Research Ideation

While there has been a surge of interest in automated scientific discovery (ASD), especially with the emergence of LLMs, it remains challenging for tools to generate hypotheses that are both testable and grounded in the scientific literature. Additionally, existing ideation tools are not adaptive to prior experimental outcomes. We developed HARPA to address these challenges by incorporating the ideation workflow inspired by human researchers. HARPA first identifies emerging research trends through literature mining, then explores hypothesis design spaces, and finally converges on precise, testable hypotheses by pinpointing research gaps and justifying design choices. Our evaluations show that HARPA-generated hypothesis-driven research proposals perform comparably to a strong baseline AI-researcher across most qualitative dimensions (e.g., specificity, novelty, overall quality), but achieve significant gains in feasibility(+0.78, p$<0.05$, bootstrap) and groundedness (+0.85, p$<0.01$, bootstrap) on a 10-point Likert scale. When tested with the ASD agent (CodeScientist), HARPA produced more successful executions (20 vs. 11 out of 40) and fewer failures (16 vs. 21 out of 40), showing that expert feasibility judgments track with actual execution success. Furthermore, to simulate how researchers continuously refine their understanding of what hypotheses are both testable and potentially interesting from experience, HARPA learns a reward model that scores new hypotheses based on prior experimental outcomes, achieving approx. a 28\% absolute gain over HARPA's untrained baseline scorer. Together, these methods represent a step forward in the field of AI-driven scientific discovery.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

AutoDiscovery: Open-ended Scientific Discovery via Bayesian Surprise

The promise of autonomous scientific discovery (ASD) hinges not only on answering questions, but also on knowing which questions to ask. Most recent works in ASD explore the use of large language models (LLMs) in goal-driven settings, relying on human-specified research questions to guide hypothesis generation. However, scientific discovery may be accelerated further by allowing the AI system to drive exploration by its own criteria. The few existing approaches in open-ended ASD select hypotheses based on diversity heuristics or subjective proxies for human interestingness, but the former struggles to meaningfully navigate the typically vast hypothesis space, and the latter suffers from imprecise definitions. This paper presents AutoDiscovery -- a method for open-ended ASD that instead drives scientific exploration using Bayesian surprise. Here, we quantify the epistemic shift from the LLM's prior beliefs about a hypothesis to its posterior beliefs after gathering experimental results. To efficiently explore the space of nested hypotheses, our method employs a Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) strategy with progressive widening using surprisal as the reward function. We evaluate AutoDiscovery in the setting of data-driven discovery across 21 real-world datasets spanning domains such as biology, economics, finance, and behavioral science. Our results demonstrate that under a fixed budget, AutoDiscovery substantially outperforms competitors by producing 5-29% more discoveries deemed surprising by the LLM. Our human evaluation further reveals that two-thirds of discoveries made by our system are surprising to domain experts as well, suggesting this is an important step towards building open-ended ASD systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Language Modeling by Language Models

Can we leverage LLMs to model the process of discovering novel language model (LM) architectures? Inspired by real research, we propose a multi-agent LLM approach that simulates the conventional stages of research, from ideation and literature search (proposal stage) to design implementation (code generation), generative pre-training, and downstream evaluation (verification). Using ideas from scaling laws, our system, Genesys, employs a Ladder of Scales approach; new designs are proposed, adversarially reviewed, implemented, and selectively verified at increasingly larger model scales (14M$\sim$350M parameters) with a narrowing budget (the number of models we can train at each scale). To help make discovery efficient and factorizable, Genesys uses a novel genetic programming backbone, which we show has empirical advantages over commonly used direct prompt generation workflows (e.g., $\sim$86\% percentage point improvement in successful design generation, a key bottleneck). We report experiments involving 1,162 newly discovered designs (1,062 fully verified through pre-training) and find the best designs to be highly competitive with known architectures (e.g., outperform GPT2, Mamba2, etc., on 6/9 common benchmarks). We couple these results with comprehensive system-level ablations and formal results, which give broader insights into the design of effective autonomous discovery systems.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

HypER: Literature-grounded Hypothesis Generation and Distillation with Provenance

Large Language models have demonstrated promising performance in research ideation across scientific domains. Hypothesis development, the process of generating a highly specific declarative statement connecting a research idea with empirical validation, has received relatively less attention. Existing approaches trivially deploy retrieval augmentation and focus only on the quality of the final output ignoring the underlying reasoning process behind ideation. We present $\texttt{HypER}$ ($\textbf{Hyp}$othesis Generation with $\textbf{E}$xplanation and $\textbf{R}$easoning), a small language model (SLM) trained for literature-guided reasoning and evidence-based hypothesis generation. $\texttt{HypER}$ is trained in a multi-task setting to discriminate between valid and invalid scientific reasoning chains in presence of controlled distractions. We find that $\texttt{HypER}$ outperformes the base model, distinguishing valid from invalid reasoning chains (+22\% average absolute F1), generates better evidence-grounded hypotheses (0.327 vs. 0.305 base model) with high feasibility and impact as judged by human experts ($>$3.5 on 5-point Likert scale).

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

CodeScientist: End-to-End Semi-Automated Scientific Discovery with Code-based Experimentation

Despite the surge of interest in autonomous scientific discovery (ASD) of software artifacts (e.g., improved ML algorithms), current ASD systems face two key limitations: (1) they largely explore variants of existing codebases or similarly constrained design spaces, and (2) they produce large volumes of research artifacts (such as automatically generated papers and code) that are typically evaluated using conference-style paper review with limited evaluation of code. In this work we introduce CodeScientist, a novel ASD system that frames ideation and experiment construction as a form of genetic search jointly over combinations of research articles and codeblocks defining common actions in a domain (like prompting a language model). We use this paradigm to conduct hundreds of automated experiments on machine-generated ideas broadly in the domain of agents and virtual environments, with the system returning 19 discoveries, 6 of which were judged as being both at least minimally sound and incrementally novel after a multi-faceted evaluation beyond that typically conducted in prior work, including external (conference-style) review, code review, and replication attempts. Moreover, the discoveries span new tasks, agents, metrics, and data, suggesting a qualitative shift from benchmark optimization to broader discoveries.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

The La Silla Schmidt Southern Survey

We present the La Silla Schmidt Southern Survey (LS4), a new wide-field, time-domain survey to be conducted with the 1 m ESO Schmidt telescope. The 268 megapixel LS4 camera mosaics 32 2k$\times$4k fully depleted CCDs, providing a $\sim$20 deg$^2$ field of view with $1''$ pixel$^{-1}$ resolution. The LS4 camera will have excellent performance at longer wavelengths: in a standard 45 s exposure the expected 5$\sigma$ limiting magnitudes in $g$, $i$, $z$ are $\sim$21.5, $\sim$20.9, and $\sim$20.3 mag (AB), respectively. The telescope design requires a novel filter holder that fixes different bandpasses over each quadrant of the detector. Two quadrants will have $i$ band, while the other two will be $g$ and $z$ band and color information will be obtained by dithering targets across the different quadrants. The majority (90%) of the observing time will be used to conduct a public survey that monitors the extragalactic sky at both moderate (3 d) and high (1 d) cadence, as well as focused observations within the Galactic bulge and plane. Alerts from the public survey will be broadcast to the community via established alert brokers. LS4 will run concurrently with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). The combination of LS4+LSST will enable detailed holistic monitoring of many nearby transients: high-cadence LS4 observations will resolve the initial rise and peak of the light curve while less-frequent but deeper observations by LSST will characterize the years before and after explosion. Here, we summarize the primary science objectives of LS4 including microlensing events in the Galaxy, extragalactic transients, the search for electromagnetic counterparts to multi-messenger events, and cosmology.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

Latent Factor Models Meets Instructions: Goal-conditioned Latent Factor Discovery without Task Supervision

Instruction-following LLMs have recently allowed systems to discover hidden concepts from a collection of unstructured documents based on a natural language description of the purpose of the discovery (i.e., goal). Still, the quality of the discovered concepts remains mixed, as it depends heavily on LLM's reasoning ability and drops when the data is noisy or beyond LLM's knowledge. We present Instruct-LF, a goal-oriented latent factor discovery system that integrates LLM's instruction-following ability with statistical models to handle large, noisy datasets where LLM reasoning alone falls short. Instruct-LF uses LLMs to propose fine-grained, goal-related properties from documents, estimates their presence across the dataset, and applies gradient-based optimization to uncover hidden factors, where each factor is represented by a cluster of co-occurring properties. We evaluate latent factors produced by Instruct-LF on movie recommendation, text-world navigation, and legal document categorization tasks. These interpretable representations improve downstream task performance by 5-52% than the best baselines and were preferred 1.8 times as often as the best alternative, on average, in human evaluation.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

AT 2018dyk: tidal disruption event or active galactic nucleus? Follow-up observations of an extreme coronal line emitter with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument

We present fresh insights into the nature of the tidal disruption event (TDE) candidate AT 2018dyk. AT 2018dyk has sparked a debate in the literature around its classification as either a bona-fide TDE or as an active galactic nucleus (AGN) turn-on state change. A new follow-up spectrum taken with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument, in combination with host-galaxy analysis using archival SDSS-MaNGA data, supports the identification of AT 2018dyk as a TDE. Specifically, we classify this object as a TDE that occurred within a gas-rich environment, which was responsible for both its mid-infrared (MIR) outburst and development of Fe coronal emission lines. Comparison with the known sample of TDE-linked extreme coronal line emitters (TDE-ECLEs) and other TDEs displaying coronal emission lines (CrL-TDEs) reveals similar characteristics and shared properties. For example, the MIR properties of both groups appear to form a continuum with links to the content and density of the material in their local environments. This includes evidence for a MIR colour-luminosity relationship in TDEs occurring within such gas-rich environments, with those with larger MIR outbursts also exhibiting redder peaks.

astro-ph.HE↗