Peter Gluckman | Searcharxiv

arXiv2021

Models and numbers: Representing the world or imposing order?

We argue for a foundational epistemic claim and a hypothesis about the production and uses of mathematical epidemiological models, exploring the consequences for our political and socio-economic lives. First, in order to make the best use of scientific models, we need to understand why models are not truly representational of our world, but are already pitched towards various uses. Second, we need to understand the implicit power relations in numbers and models in public policy, and, thus, the implications for good governance if numbers and models are used as the exclusive drivers of decision making.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2021

Should policy makers trust composite indices? A commentary on the pitfalls of inappropriate indices for policy formation

This paper critically discusses the use and merits of global indices, in particular, the Global Health Security Index or GHSI (Cameron et 2019) in times of an imminent crisis, like the current pandemic. The index ranked 195 countries according to their expected preparedness in case of a pandemic or other biological threat. The Covid-19 pandemic provides the background to compare each country's predicted performance from the GHSI with the actual performance. In general, there is an inverted relation between predicted versus actual performance, i.e. the predicted top performers are among those that are the worst hit. Obviously, this reflects poorly on the potential policy uses of the index in imminent crisis management. The paper also uses two different data sets, one from the Worldmeter on the spread of the Covid-19 pandemics, and the other one from the INGSA policy tracker, to make comparisons between the actual introduction of pandemic response policies and the corresponding death rate in 29 selected countries.

cs.CY↗