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Peter Glynn

Publications and source records attributed to Peter Glynn.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Optimal Sample Complexity for Average Reward Markov Decision Processes

We resolve the open question regarding the sample complexity of policy learning for maximizing the long-run average reward associated with a uniformly ergodic Markov decision process (MDP), assuming a generative model. In this context, the existing literature provides a sample complexity upper bound of $\widetilde O(|S||A|t_{\text{mix}}^2 ε^{-2})$ and a lower bound of $Ω(|S||A|t_{\text{mix}} ε^{-2})$. In these expressions, $|S|$ and $|A|$ denote the cardinalities of the state and action spaces respectively, $t_{\text{mix}}$ serves as a uniform upper limit for the total variation mixing times, and $ε$ signifies the error tolerance. Therefore, a notable gap of $t_{\text{mix}}$ still remains to be bridged. Our primary contribution is the development of an estimator for the optimal policy of average reward MDPs with a sample complexity of $\widetilde O(|S||A|t_{\text{mix}}ε^{-2})$. This marks the first algorithm and analysis to reach the literature's lower bound. Our new algorithm draws inspiration from ideas in Li et al. (2020), Jin and Sidford (2021), and Wang et al. (2023). Additionally, we conduct numerical experiments to validate our theoretical findings.

cs.LG↗

Optimal $δ$-Correct Best-Arm Selection for Heavy-Tailed Distributions

Given a finite set of unknown distributions or arms that can be sampled, we consider the problem of identifying the one with the maximum mean using a $δ$-correct algorithm (an adaptive, sequential algorithm that restricts the probability of error to a specified $δ$) that has minimum sample complexity. Lower bounds for $δ$-correct algorithms are well known. $δ$-correct algorithms that match the lower bound asymptotically as $δ$ reduces to zero have been previously developed when arm distributions are restricted to a single parameter exponential family. In this paper, we first observe a negative result that some restrictions are essential, as otherwise, under a $δ$-correct algorithm, distributions with unbounded support would require an infinite number of samples in expectation. We then propose a $δ$-correct algorithm that matches the lower bound as $δ$ reduces to zero under the mild restriction that a known bound on the expectation of $(1+ε)^{th}$ moment of the underlying random variables exists, for $ε> 0$. We also propose batch processing and identify near-optimal batch sizes to speed up the proposed algorithm substantially. The best-arm problem has many learning applications, including recommendation systems and product selection. It is also a well-studied classic problem in the simulation community.

cs.LG↗

Probabilistic Contraction Analysis of Iterated Random Operators

In many branches of engineering, Banach contraction mapping theorem is employed to establish the convergence of certain deterministic algorithms. Randomized versions of these algorithms have been developed that have proved useful in data-driven problems. In a class of randomized algorithms, in each iteration, the contraction map is approximated with an operator that uses independent and identically distributed samples of certain random variables. This leads to iterated random operators acting on an initial point in a complete metric space, and it generates a Markov chain. In this paper, we develop a new stochastic dominance based proof technique, called probabilistic contraction analysis, for establishing the convergence in probability of Markov chains generated by such iterated random operators in certain limiting regime. The methods developed in this paper provides a general framework for understanding convergence of a wide variety of Monte Carlo methods in which contractive property is present. We apply the convergence result to conclude the convergence of fitted value iteration and fitted relative value iteration in continuous state and continuous action Markov decision problems as representative applications of the general framework developed here.

math.PR↗

Adaptive Experimental Design with Temporal Interference: A Maximum Likelihood Approach

Suppose an online platform wants to compare a treatment and control policy, e.g., two different matching algorithms in a ridesharing system, or two different inventory management algorithms in an online retail site. Standard randomized controlled trials are typically not feasible, since the goal is to estimate policy performance on the entire system. Instead, the typical current practice involves dynamically alternating between the two policies for fixed lengths of time, and comparing the average performance of each over the intervals in which they were run as an estimate of the treatment effect. However, this approach suffers from *temporal interference*: one algorithm alters the state of the system as seen by the second algorithm, biasing estimates of the treatment effect. Further, the simple non-adaptive nature of such designs implies they are not sample efficient. We develop a benchmark theoretical model in which to study optimal experimental design for this setting. We view testing the two policies as the problem of estimating the steady state difference in reward between two unknown Markov chains (i.e., policies). We assume estimation of the steady state reward for each chain proceeds via nonparametric maximum likelihood, and search for consistent (i.e., asymptotically unbiased) experimental designs that are efficient (i.e., asymptotically minimum variance). Characterizing such designs is equivalent to a Markov decision problem with a minimum variance objective; such problems generally do not admit tractable solutions. Remarkably, in our setting, using a novel application of classical martingale analysis of Markov chains via Poisson's equation, we characterize efficient designs via a succinct convex optimization problem. We use this characterization to propose a consistent, efficient online experimental design that adaptively samples the two Markov chains.

stat.ME↗

Surgical Scheduling via Optimization and Machine Learning with Long-Tailed Data

Using data from cardiovascular surgery patients with long and highly variable post-surgical lengths of stay (LOS), we develop a modeling framework to reduce recovery unit congestion. We estimate the LOS and its probability distribution using machine learning models, schedule procedures on a rolling basis using a variety of optimization models, and estimate performance with simulation. The machine learning models achieved only modest LOS prediction accuracy, despite access to a very rich set of patient characteristics. Compared to the current paper-based system used in the hospital, most optimization models failed to reduce congestion without increasing wait times for surgery. A conservative stochastic optimization with sufficient sampling to capture the long tail of the LOS distribution outperformed the current manual process and other stochastic and robust optimization approaches. These results highlight the perils of using oversimplified distributional models of LOS for scheduling procedures and the importance of using optimization methods well-suited to dealing with long-tailed behavior.

cs.LG↗

The Design and Implementation of a Broadly Applicable Algorithm for Optimizing Intra-Day Surgical Scheduling

Surgical scheduling optimization is an active area of research. However, few algorithms to optimize surgical scheduling are implemented and see sustained use. An algorithm is more likely to be implemented, if it allows for surgeon autonomy, i.e., requires only limited scheduling centralization, and functions in the limited technical infrastructure of widely used electronic medical records (EMRs). In order for an algorithm to see sustained use, it must be compatible with changes to hospital capacity, patient volumes, and scheduling practices. To meet these objectives, we developed the BEDS (better elective day of surgery) algorithm, a greedy heuristic for smoothing unit-specific surgical admissions across days. We implemented BEDS in the EMR of a large pediatric academic medical center. The use of BEDS was associated with a reduction in the variability in the number of admissions. BEDS is freely available as a dashboard in Tableau, a commercial software used by numerous hospitals. BEDS is readily implementable with the limited tools available to most hospitals, does not require reductions to surgeon autonomy or centralized scheduling, and is compatible with changes to hospital capacity or patient volumes. We present a general algorithmic framework from which BEDS is derived based on a particular choice of objectives and constraints. We argue that algorithms generated by this framework retain many of the desirable characteristics of BEDS while being compatible with a wide range of objectives and constraints.

cs.AI↗

Frank-Wolfe Methods in Probability Space

We introduce a new class of Frank-Wolfe algorithms for minimizing differentiable functionals over probability measures. This framework can be shown to encompass a diverse range of tasks in areas such as artificial intelligence, reinforcement learning, and optimization. Concrete computational complexities for these algorithms are established and demonstrate that these methods enjoy convergence in regimes that go beyond convexity and require minimal regularity of the underlying functional. Novel techniques used to obtain these results also lead to the development of new complexity bounds and duality theorems for a family of distributionally robust optimization problems. The performance of our method is demonstrated on several nonparametric estimation problems.

stat.CO↗

The Development and Deployment of a Model for Hospital-level COVID-19 Associated Patient Demand Intervals from Consistent Estimators (DICE)

Hospitals commonly project demand for their services by combining their historical share of regional demand with forecasts of total regional demand. Hospital-specific forecasts of demand that provide prediction intervals, rather than point estimates, may facilitate better managerial decisions, especially when demand overage and underage are associated with high, asymmetric costs. Regional forecasts of patient demand are commonly available as a Poisson random variable, e.g., for the number of people requiring hospitalization due to an epidemic such as COVID-19. However, even in this common setting, no probabilistic, consistent, computationally tractable forecast is available for the fraction of patients in a region that a particular institution should expect. We introduce such a forecast, DICE (Demand Intervals from Consistent Estimators). We describe its development and deployment at an academic medical center in California during the `second wave' of COVID-19 in the Unite States. We show that DICE is consistent under mild assumptions and suitable for use with perfect, biased, unbiased regional forecasts. We evaluate its performance on empirical data from a large academic medical center as well as on synthetic data.

stat.AP↗

Efficient Steady-state Simulation of High-dimensional Stochastic Networks

We propose and study an asymptotically optimal Monte Carlo estimator for steady-state expectations of a d-dimensional reflected Brownian motion. Our estimator is asymptotically optimal in the sense that it requires $\tilde{O}(d)$ (up to logarithmic factors in $d$) i.i.d. Gaussian random variables in order to output an estimate with a controlled error. Our construction is based on the analysis of a suitable multi-level Monte Carlo strategy which, we believe, can be applied widely. This is the first algorithm with linear complexity (under suitable regularity conditions) for steady-state estimation of RBM as the dimension increases.

math.PR↗

Optimal Transport Relaxations with Application to Wasserstein GANs

We propose a family of relaxations of the optimal transport problem which regularize the problem by introducing an additional minimization step over a small region around one of the underlying transporting measures. The type of regularization that we obtain is related to smoothing techniques studied in the optimization literature. When using our approach to estimate optimal transport costs based on empirical measures, we obtain statistical learning bounds which are useful to guide the amount of regularization, while maintaining good generalization properties. To illustrate the computational advantages of our regularization approach, we apply our method to training Wasserstein GANs. We obtain running time improvements, relative to current benchmarks, with no deterioration in testing performance (via FID). The running time improvement occurs because our new optimality-based threshold criterion reduces the number of expensive iterates of the generating networks, while increasing the number of actor-critic iterations.

stat.ML↗

Probability Functional Descent: A Unifying Perspective on GANs, Variational Inference, and Reinforcement Learning

This paper provides a unifying view of a wide range of problems of interest in machine learning by framing them as the minimization of functionals defined on the space of probability measures. In particular, we show that generative adversarial networks, variational inference, and actor-critic methods in reinforcement learning can all be seen through the lens of our framework. We then discuss a generic optimization algorithm for our formulation, called probability functional descent (PFD), and show how this algorithm recovers existing methods developed independently in the settings mentioned earlier.

cs.LG↗

Selecting the best system and multi-armed bandits

Consider the problem of finding a population or a probability distribution amongst many with the largest mean when these means are unknown but population samples can be simulated or otherwise generated. Typically, by selecting largest sample mean population, it can be shown that false selection probability decays at an exponential rate. Lately, researchers have sought algorithms that guarantee that this probability is restricted to a small $δ$ in order $\log(1/δ)$ computational time by estimating the associated large deviations rate function via simulation. We show that such guarantees are misleading when populations have unbounded support even when these may be light-tailed. Specifically, we show that any policy that identifies the correct population with probability at least $1-δ$ for each problem instance requires infinite number of samples in expectation in making such a determination in any problem instance. This suggests that some restrictions are essential on populations to devise $O(\log(1/δ))$ algorithms with $1 - δ$ correctness guarantees. We note that under restriction on population moments, such methods are easily designed, and that sequential methods from stochastic multi-armed bandit literature can be adapted to devise such algorithms.

math.PR↗

An Accelerated Approach to Safely and Efficiently Test Pre-Production Autonomous Vehicles on Public Streets

Various automobile and mobility companies, for instance Ford, Uber and Waymo, are currently testing their pre-produced autonomous vehicle (AV) fleets on the public roads. However, due to rareness of the safety-critical cases and, effectively, unlimited number of possible traffic scenarios, these on-road testing efforts have been acknowledged as tedious, costly, and risky. In this study, we propose Accelerated De- ployment framework to safely and efficiently estimate the AVs performance on public streets. We showed that by appropriately addressing the gradual accuracy improvement and adaptively selecting meaningful and safe environment under which the AV is deployed, the proposed framework yield to highly accurate estimation with much faster evaluation time, and more importantly, lower deployment risk. Our findings provide an answer to the currently heated and active discussions on how to properly test AV performance on public roads so as to achieve safe, efficient, and statistically-reliable testing framework for AV technologies.

cs.RO↗

On the convergence of mirror descent beyond stochastic convex programming

In this paper, we examine the convergence of mirror descent in a class of stochastic optimization problems that are not necessarily convex (or even quasi-convex), and which we call variationally coherent. Since the standard technique of "ergodic averaging" offers no tangible benefits beyond convex programming, we focus directly on the algorithm's last generated sample (its "last iterate"), and we show that it converges with probabiility $1$ if the underlying problem is coherent. We further consider a localized version of variational coherence which ensures local convergence of stochastic mirror descent (SMD) with high probability. These results contribute to the landscape of non-convex stochastic optimization by showing that (quasi-)convexity is not essential for convergence to a global minimum: rather, variational coherence, a much weaker requirement, suffices. Finally, building on the above, we reveal an interesting insight regarding the convergence speed of SMD: in problems with sharp minima (such as generic linear programs or concave minimization problems), SMD reaches a minimum point in a finite number of steps (a.s.), even in the presence of persistent gradient noise. This result is to be contrasted with existing black-box convergence rate estimates that are only asymptotic.

math.OC↗

Statistics of Robust Optimization: A Generalized Empirical Likelihood Approach

We study statistical inference and distributionally robust solution methods for stochastic optimization problems, focusing on confidence intervals for optimal values and solutions that achieve exact coverage asymptotically. We develop a generalized empirical likelihood framework---based on distributional uncertainty sets constructed from nonparametric $f$-divergence balls---for Hadamard differentiable functionals, and in particular, stochastic optimization problems. As consequences of this theory, we provide a principled method for choosing the size of distributional uncertainty regions to provide one- and two-sided confidence intervals that achieve exact coverage. We also give an asymptotic expansion for our distributionally robust formulation, showing how robustification regularizes problems by their variance. Finally, we show that optimizers of the distributionally robust formulations we study enjoy (essentially) the same consistency properties as those in classical sample average approximations. Our general approach applies to quickly mixing stationary sequences, including geometrically ergodic Harris recurrent Markov chains.

stat.ML↗

Lyapunov Conditions for Differentiability of Markov Chain Expectations: the Absolutely Continuous Case

We consider a family of Markov chains whose transition dynamics are affected by model parameters. Understanding the parametric dependence of (complex) performance measures of such Markov chains is often of significant interest. The derivatives of the performance measures w.r.t. the parameters play important roles, for example, in numerical optimization of the performance measures, and quantification of the uncertainties in the performance measures when there are uncertainties in the parameters from the statistical estimation procedures. In this paper, we establish conditions that guarantee the differentiability of various types of intractable performance measures---such as the stationary and random horizon discounted performance measures---of general state space Markov chains and provide probabilistic representations for the derivatives.

math.PR↗

On the Limiting Ratio of Current Age to Total Life for Null Recurrent Renewal Processes

If the inter-arrival time distribution of a renewal process is regularly varying with index $α\in\left( 0,1\right) $ (i.e. the inter-arrival times have infinite mean) and if $A\left( t\right) $ is the associated age process at time $t$. Then we show that if $C\left( t\right) $ is the length of the current cycle at time $t$, \[ A\left( t\right) /C\left( t\right) \Rightarrow U^{1/α}, \] where $U$ is $U\left( 0,1\right) $. This extends a classical result in renewal theory in the finite mean case which indicates that the limit is $U\left( 0,1\right) $.

math.PR↗