arXiv subjects

Peter H. Egger

Publications and source records attributed to Peter H. Egger.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

PPML and Heavy-Tailed Trade and Factor Flows: Why Standard Inference Fails and How to Fix It

The Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimator is widely used for estimating bilateral gravity equations. Its consistency requires only a correctly specified conditional mean. Conventional inference, however, also requires finite-variance scores and Gaussian limits. We show that these conditions fail: bilateral flows are Pareto-tailed, PPML scores have a stable limit under a structural gravity data-generating process, and sandwich confidence intervals are too narrow. We retain PPML for point estimation but replace sandwich inference with an m-out-of-n bootstrap robust to heavy tails. Across three bilateral data settings, the correction is large and overturns conventionally significant gravity coefficients.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

Estimating Export-productivity Cutoff Contours with Profit Data: A Novel Threshold Estimation Approach

This paper develops a novel method to estimate firm-specific market-entry thresholds in international economics, allowing fixed costs to vary across firms alongside productivity. Our framework models market entry as an interaction between productivity and observable fixed-cost measures, extending traditional single-threshold models to ones with set-valued thresholds. Applying this approach to Chinese firm data, we estimate export-market entry thresholds as functions of domestic sales and surrogate variables for fixed costs. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity and threshold contours, challenging conventional single-threshold-point assumptions. These findings offer new insights into firm behavior and provide a foundation for further theoretical and empirical advancements in trade research.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Hierarchical Classification of Research Fields in the "Web of Science" Using Deep Learning

This paper presents a hierarchical classification system that automatically categorizes a scholarly publication using its abstract into a three-tier hierarchical label set (discipline, field, subfield) in a multi-class setting. This system enables a holistic categorization of research activities in the mentioned hierarchy in terms of knowledge production through articles and impact through citations, permitting those activities to fall into multiple categories. The classification system distinguishes 44 disciplines, 718 fields and 1,485 subfields among 160 million abstract snippets in Microsoft Academic Graph (version 2018-05-17). We used batch training in a modularized and distributed fashion to address and allow for interdisciplinary and interfield classifications in single-label and multi-label settings. In total, we have conducted 3,140 experiments in all considered models (Convolutional Neural Networks, Recurrent Neural Networks, Transformers). The classification accuracy is > 90% in 77.13% and 78.19% of the single-label and multi-label classifications, respectively. We examine the advantages of our classification by its ability to better align research texts and output with disciplines, to adequately classify them in an automated way, and to capture the degree of interdisciplinarity. The proposed system (a set of pre-trained models) can serve as a backbone to an interactive system for indexing scientific publications in the future.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2023

SAINE: Scientific Annotation and Inference Engine of Scientific Research

We present SAINE, an Scientific Annotation and Inference ENgine based on a set of standard open-source software, such as Label Studio and MLflow. We show that our annotation engine can benefit the further development of a more accurate classification. Based on our previous work on hierarchical discipline classifications, we demonstrate its application using SAINE in understanding the space for scholarly publications. The user study of our annotation results shows that user input collected with the help of our system can help us better understand the classification process. We believe that our work will help to foster greater transparency and better understand scientific research. Our annotation and inference engine can further support the downstream meta-science projects. We welcome collaboration and feedback from the scientific community on these projects. The demonstration video can be accessed from https://youtu.be/yToO-G9YQK4. A live demo website is available at https://app.heartex.com/user/signup/?token=e2435a2f97449fa1 upon free registration.

cs.DL↗