arXiv subjects

Peter Jenniskens

Publications and source records attributed to Peter Jenniskens.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Dynamic Trajectory Analysis of Meteoroids Showing Minimal Deceleration

Meteoroids decelerate and ablate as they descend through the atmosphere, however a portion of instrumentally observed meteors show little measurable deceleration and remain poorly characterised. These are referred to as minimally decelerating objects (MDOs). The traditional alpha-beta method of dynamic trajectory analysis cannot reliably determine their preatmospheric masses or rates of ablation. We present a new approach for estimating the ballistic coefficients (alpha) and mass loss parameters (beta) of MDOs, allowing their inclusion in dynamic analyses. This new method employs bulk ablation coefficients derived from instrumentally observed meteorite falls and large meteor shower bodies. It is applied to MDOs comprising approximately one-third of the Global Fireball Observatory (GFO) 2014 - 2024 dataset. Our results show that MDOs are predominantly small objects occupying a distinct region of alpha-beta space. Material types can be identified using supplementary data such as emission spectra, which we demonstrate using observations of 10 small iron meteoroids. This methodology expands the range of meteoroid populations accessible to dynamic trajectory analysis, providing new constraints on meteorite deposition and the compositional diversity of near-Earth objects.

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arXiv2026

Shock wave formation in the thermosphere by an earthgrazing fireball: Empirical evidence for volatile-enhanced hydrodynamic shielding

Hydrodynamic shielding is a theoretically well-established but observationally elusive and experimentally difficult-to-replicate phenomenon with implications that extend far beyond meteor physics. Rare earthgrazing meteoroids with infrasound signatures that penetrate to the ground can be used to probe hydrodynamic shielding that leads to strong shock formation at high altitude. Here, we report the first coordinated optical and multi-station infrasound observations of a centimeter-scale earthgrazing fireball that generated sustained cylindrical line shock at thermospheric altitudes near 92 km. The event was recorded by numerous optical stations and three infrasound arrays, allowing trajectory reconstruction, ablation behavior, acoustic source localization, and shock characteristics. Optical observations indicate early mechanical erosion and ablation/evaporation at exceptionally low dynamic pressure, consistent with a cometary or a porous, volatile-bearing CM chondritic object. Independent infrasound detections localize shock generation to multiple points along a 164 km trajectory segment near perigee. Weak-shock modeling yields a consistent blast radius of ~30 m, implying an acoustic-equivalent source size far exceeding the physical dimensions of the ~45 g nucleus. We demonstrate that classical gas dynamics and ablation-driven hydrodynamic shielding alone cannot account for these observations under ambient thermospheric conditions. We show that volatile release provides the additional flow-field density enhancement required to amplify hydrodynamic shielding, reduce the effective local Knudsen number, and sustain a shock envelope capable of radiating detectable infrasound. These results demonstrate that small, volatile-rich meteoroids can transiently establish continuum-like flow in rarefied environments.

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arXiv2025

A Near-Earth Object Model Calibrated to Earth Impactors

The population of Earth-impacting meteoroids and its size-dependent orbital elements are key to understanding the origin of meteorites and informing on planetary defence efforts. Outstanding questions include the role of collisions in depleting meteoroids on highly evolved orbits and the relative importance of delivery resonances. Those depend on size, with current dynamical models considering only asteroids larger than 10m in diameter. Based on 1,202 sporadic meteoroids observed by the Global Fireball Observatory, we created a debiased model of the near-Earth meteoroid population in the 10g - 150kg in size (approximately 1cm - 0.5m) as they dynamically evolved from the main asteroid belt onto Earth-crossing orbits. The observed impact population is best matched with a collisional half-life decreasing from 3Myr for meteoroids of 0.6kg (7cm) or higher, to 1Myr below this size, extending to the model lower bound of 10g. Placing our results in context with near-Earth object models for larger sizes, we find that the inner main belt continues to dominate feeding the small 1m to 10m diameter population primarily via the $\nu_6$ secular resonance and the 3:1J mean motion resonance. We also evaluated the potential significance of physical processes other than collisions on Earth-impacting meteoroids, such as low-perihelion disruptions from thermal stresses.

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arXiv2025

Catastrophic disruption of asteroid 2023 CX1 and implications for planetary defense

Mitigation of the threat from airbursting asteroids requires an understanding of the potential risk they pose for the ground. How asteroids release their kinetic energy in the atmosphere is not well understood due to the rarity of significant impacts. Ordinary chondrites, in particular L chondrites, represent a frequent type of Earth-impacting asteroids. Here, we present the first comprehensive, space-to-lab characterization of an L chondrite impact. Small asteroid 2023 CX1 was detected in space and predicted to impact over Normandy, France, on 13 February 2023. Observations from multiple independent sensors and reduction techniques revealed an unusual but potentially high-risk fragmentation behavior. The nearly spherical 650 $\pm$ 160 kg (72 $\pm$ 6 cm diameter) asteroid catastrophically fragmented around 28 km altitude, releasing 98% of its total energy in a concentrated region of the atmosphere. The resulting shockwave was spherical, not cylindrical, and released more energy closer to the ground. This type of fragmentation increases the risk of significant damage at ground level. These results warrant consideration for a planetary defense strategy for cases where a >3-4 MPa dynamic pressure is expected, including planning for evacuation of areas beneath anticipated disruption locations.

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arXiv2025

Multi-parameter constraints on empirical infrasound period-yield relations for bolides and implications for planetary defense

How effective are methods for estimating bolide energies from infrasound signal period-yield relationships? A single global period-energy relation can obscure significant variability introduced by parameters such as the atmospheric Doppler wind profile and the bolide's energy deposition profile as a function of altitude. Bolide speed, entry angle, burst altitude, and multi-episode fragmentation all may play a role in defining the detected period of the shockwave. By leveraging bolide light curve data from the Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), we re-examined the period-energy relation as a function of these parameters. Through a bootstrap approach, we show that various event subsets can deviate from widely cited period-energy models and we identify which specific conditions most strongly reshape the period-energy scaling. The results define both the fidelity and reliability of period-energy relations when no additional data beyond the infrasound record is available and improve the outcome when supporting data from bolide trajectories and light curves are included. Ultimately, these findings expand the scope of earlier models, providing a nuanced and robust framework for infrasound-only yield estimation under a range of bolide scenarios.

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arXiv2025

Sun Close-Encounter Model of Long-Period Comet and Meteoroid Orbit Stochastic Evolution

The dynamical evolution of long-period comets (LPCs) and their meteoroid streams is usually described with the Sun as the primary body, but over most of their orbits the Solar System barycenter (SSB) is effectively the orbital focus. Detailed numerical integrations show that the orbital elements in the barycentric reference frame are nearly constant, except within the orbit of Jupiter where the comet or meteoroid shifts to a heliocentric orbit. Here we show that this encounter can be modeled in the barycentric frame analogously to how planetary close encounters are treated in the heliocentric frame, with the comet captured into an elliptic orbit about the Sun as it in turn orbits SSB. Modeling the encounters as a two-body interaction in the SSB frame gives a different insight into the dynamics than offered by secular perturbation analyses, and reveals that a large portion of the stochasticity seen in the evolution of the comet's orbit is due to the Sun's state relative to SSB at the time of encounter. LPCs sample the Sun's state randomly at each return, so that a statistical characterization of Sun's state is sufficient to determine the qualitative evolution of their orbits, including stream dispersion. The barycentric orbital elements are shown to execute random walks well-characterized by Maxwellian distributions. This is superimposed atop a systematic orbital precession induced by planetary torques. Planetary close encounters add a second stochastic component, but this component does not typically dominate the solar perturbations. Based on the statistics of Sun's state alone, the age of a long-period comet meteoroid stream in a given orbit can be derived to reasonable precision from the observed random dispersion of the angular orbital elements at Earth.

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arXiv2025

Orbit, meteoroid size, and cosmic ray exposure history of the Aguas Zarcas CM2 breccia

The Aguas Zarcas (Costa Rica) CM2 carbonaceous chondrite fell during night time in April 2019. Security and dashboard camera video of the meteor were analyzed to provide a trajectory, lightcurve, and orbit of the meteoroid. The trajectory was near vertical, 81{\deg} steep, arriving from an ~109{\deg} (WNW) direction with apparent entry speed of 14.6 +/- 0.6 km/s. The meteoroid penetrated to ~25 km altitude (5 MPa dynamic pressure), where the surviving mass shattered, producing a flare that was detected by the Geostationary Lightning Mappers on GOES-16 and GOES-17. The cosmogenic radionuclides were analyzed in three recovered meteorites by either gamma-ray spectroscopy or accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS), while noble gas concentrations and isotopic compositions were measured in the same fragment that was analyzed by AMS. From this, the pre-atmospheric size of the meteoroid and its cosmic-ray exposure age were determined. The studied samples came from a few cm up to 30 cm deep in an object with an original diameter of ~60 cm, that was ejected from its parent body 2.0 +/- 0.2 Ma ago. The ejected material had an argon retention age of 2.9 Ga. The object was delivered most likely by the 3:1 or 5:2 mean motion resonances and, without subsequent fragmentation, approached Earth from a low i < 2.8{\deg} inclined orbit with perihelion distance q = 0.98 AU close to Earth orbit. The steep entry trajectory and high strength resulted in deep penetration in the atmosphere and a relatively large fraction of surviving mass.

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arXiv2024

How Meteor Showers Can Guide the Search for Long Period Comets

With orbital periods longer than 200 years, most long-period comets (LPCs) remain undiscovered until they are in-bound towards perihelion. The comets that pass close to Earth's orbit are Potentially Hazardous Objects (PHOs). Those with orbital periods up to ~4000 years tend to have passed close to Earth's orbit in a previous orbit and produced a meteoroid stream dense enough to be detected at Earth as a meteor shower. In anticipation of Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), we investigate how these meteor showers can guide dedicated searches for their parent comets. Assuming search parameters informed by LSST, we calculated where the 17 known parent bodies of long-period comet meteor showers would have been discovered based on a cloud of synthetic comets generated from the shower properties as measured at Earth. We find that the synthetic comets predict the on-sky location of the parent comets at the time of their discovery. The parent comet's location on average would have been 1.51 $\pm$1.19$\deg$ from a line fit through the synthetic comet cloud. The difference between the heliocentric distance of the parent and mean heliocentric distance of synthetic comets on the line was 2.09 $\pm$1.89 au for comets with unknown absolute nuclear magnitudes and 0.96 $\pm$0.80 au for comets with known absolute nuclear magnitudes. We applied this method to the $\sigma$-Hydrids, the proposed meteor shower of Comet Nishimura, and found that it successfully matched the pre-covery location of this comet 8 months prior to Nishimura's discovery.

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arXiv2024

Properties of outer solar system pebbles during planetesimal formation from meteor observations

In the late stages of accretion leading up to the formation of planetesimals, particles grew to pebbles the size of 1-mm to tens of cm. That is the same size range that dominates the present-day comet mass loss. Meteoroids that size cause visible meteors on Earth. Here, we hypothesize that the size distribution and the physical and chemical properties of young meteoroid streams still contain information about the conditions in the solar nebula during these late stages of accretion. From observations of 47 young meteor showers, we find that freshly ejected meteoroids from long-period comets tend to have low bulk density and are distributed with equal surface area per log-mass interval (magnitude distribution index chi ~ 1.85), suggesting gentle accretion conditions. Jupiter-family comets, on the other hand, mostly produce meteoroids twice as dense and distributed with a steeper chi ~ 2.15 or even chi ~ 2.5, which implies that those pebbles grew from particles fragmenting in a collisional cascade or by catastrophic collisions, respectively. Both comet populations contain an admixture of compact materials that are sometimes sodium-poor, but Jupiter-family comets show a higher percentage (~8% on average) than long-period comet showers (~4%), and a wider range. While there are exceptions in both groups, the implication is that most long-period comets formed under gentle particle growth conditions, possibly near the 30 AU edge of the Trans Neptunian Disk, while most Jupiter family comets formed closer to the Sun where pebbles reached or passed the fragmentation barrier. This is possible if the Scattered Disk represents all objects scattered by Neptune during its migration, while the present-day outer Oort cloud formed only during and after the Sun had moved away from sibling stars.

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arXiv2024

Aperture photometry on asteroid trails: detection of the fastest rotating near-Earth object

Context. Near-Earth objects (NEOs) on an impact course with Earth can move at high angular speed. Understanding their properties, including rotation state, is crucial for assessing impact risks and mitigation strategies. Traditional photometric methods face challenges in collecting data on fast-moving NEOs accurately. Aims. This study introduces an innovative approach to aperture photometry tailored to analyzing trailed images of fast-moving NEOs. Our primary aim is to extract rotation state information from these observations, particularly focusing on the efficacy of this technique for fast rotators. Methods. We applied our approach to analyze the trailed images of three asteroids: 2023 CX1, 2024 BX1, and 2024 EF, which were either on a collision courses or performing a close fly-by with Earth. By adjusting aperture sizes, we controlled the effective exposure times to increase the sampling rates of the photometric variations. This enabled us to detect short rotation periods that would be challenging with conventional methods. Results. Our analysis revealed that trailed photometry significantly reduces overhead time associated with CCD read-out, enhancing the sampling rate of the photometric variations. We demonstrated that this technique is particularly effective for fast-moving objects, providing reliable photometric data when the object is at its brightest and closest to Earth. For asteroid 2024 BX1, we detected a rotation period as short as 2.5888 +- 0.0002 seconds, the fastest ever recorded. Our findings underscore the efficacy of trailed observations coupled with aperture photometry for studying the rotation characteristics of small NEOs, offering crucial insights for impact risk assessment and mitigation strategies.

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arXiv2023

AI-Enhanced Data Processing and Discovery Crowd Sourcing for Meteor Shower Mapping

The Cameras for Allsky Meteor Surveillance (CAMS) project, funded by NASA starting in 2010, aims to map our meteor showers by triangulating meteor trajectories detected in low-light video cameras from multiple locations across 16 countries in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Its mission is to validate, discover, and predict the upcoming returns of meteor showers. Our research aimed to streamline the data processing by implementing an automated cloud-based AI-enabled pipeline and improve the data visualization to improve the rate of discoveries by involving the public in monitoring the meteor detections. This article describes the process of automating the data ingestion, processing, and insight generation using an interpretable Active Learning and AI pipeline. This work also describes the development of an interactive web portal (the NASA Meteor Shower portal) to facilitate the visualization of meteor radiant maps. To date, CAMS has discovered over 200 new meteor showers and has validated dozens of previously reported showers.

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arXiv2022

Comets and meteor showers

Earth occasionally crosses the debris streams produced by comets and other active bodies in our solar system. These manifest meteor showers that provide an opportunity to explore these bodies without a need to visit them in-situ. Observations of meteor showers provide unique insights into the physical and dynamical properties of their parent bodies, as well as into the compositions and the structure of near-surface dust. In this chapter, we discuss the development and current state of affairs of meteor science, with a focus on its role as a tool to study comets, and review the established parent body -- meteor shower linkages.

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arXiv2022

Detection of Cosmic Fullerenes in the Almahata Sitta Meteorite: Are They an Interstellar Heritage?

Buckminsterfullerene, C60 , is the largest molecule observed to date in interstellar and circumstellar environments. The mechanism of formation of this molecule is actively debated. Despite targeted searches in primitive carbonaceous chondrites, no unambiguous detection of C60 in a meteorite has been reported to date. Here we report the first firm detection of fullerenes, from C30 to at least C100 , in the Almahata Sitta (AhS) polymict ureilite meteorite. This detection was achieved using highly sensitive laser desorption laser ionization mass spectrometry. Fullerenes have been unambiguously detected in seven clasts of AhS ureilites. Molecular family analysis shows that fullerenes are from a different reservoir compared to the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons detected in the same samples. The fullerene family correlates best with carbon clusters, some of which may have been formed by the destruction of solid carbon phases by the impacting laser. We show that the detected fullerenes are not formed in this way. We suggest that fullerenes are an intrinsic component of a specific carbon phase that has yet to be identified. The nondetection of fullerenes in the Murchison and Allende bulk samples, while using the same experimental conditions, suggests that this phase is absent or less abundant in these primitive chondrites. The former case would support the formation of fullerenes by shock-wave processing of carbonaceous phases in the ureilite parent body. However, there are no experimental data to support this scenario. This leaves open the possibility that fullerenes are an interstellar heritage and a messenger of interstellar processes.

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arXiv2021

Simultaneous broadband radio and optical emission of meteor trains imaged by LOFAR / AARTFAAC and CAMS

We report on simultaneous 30 - 60 MHz LOFAR / AARTFAAC12 radio observations and CAMS low-light video observations of +4 to -10 magnitude meteors at the peak of the Perseid meteor shower on August 12/13, 2020. 204 meteor trains were imaged in both the radio and optical domain. Aside from scattered artificial radio sources, we identify broadband radio emission from many persistent trains, one of which lingered for up to 6 minutes. Unexpectedly, fewer broadband radio meteor trains were recorded when the experiment was repeated during the 2020 Geminids and 2021 Quadrantids. Intrinsic broadband radio emission was reported earlier by the Long Wavelength Array, but for much brighter meteors and observed with lower spatial resolution. The new results offer insight into the unknown radio emission mechanism.

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arXiv2021

Taurid stream #628: a reservoir of large cometary impactors

The Desert Fireball Network observed a significant outburst of fireballs belonging to the Southern Taurid Complex of meteor showers between October 27 and November 17, 2015. At the same time, the Cameras for Allsky Meteor Surveillance project detected a distinct population of smaller meteors belonging to the irregular IAU shower #628, the s-Taurids. While this returning outburst was predicted and observed in previous work, the reason for this stream is not yet understood. 2015 was the first year that the stream was precisely observed, providing an opportunity to better understand its nature. We analyse the orbital elements of stream members, and establish a size frequency distribution from millimetre to metre size range. The stream is highly stratified with a large change of entry speed along Earth's orbit. We confirm that the meteoroids have orbital periods near the 7:2 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter. The mass distribution of this population is dominated by larger meteoroids, unlike that for the regular Southern Taurid shower. The distribution index is consistent with a gentle collisional fragmentation of weak material. A population of metre-sized objects is identified from satellite observations at a rate consistent with a continuation of the size-frequency distribution established at centimetre size. The observed change of longitude of perihelion among the s-Taurids points to recent (a few centuries ago) activity from fragmentation involving surviving asteroid 2015TX24. This supports a model for the Taurid Complex showers that involves an ongoing fragmentation cascade of comet 2P/Encke siblings following a breakup some 20,000 years ago.

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arXiv2021

Recovery of Meteorites Using an Autonomous Drone and Machine Learning

The recovery of freshly fallen meteorites from tracked and triangulated meteors is critical to determining their source asteroid families. However, locating meteorite fragments in strewn fields remains a challenge with very few meteorites being recovered from the meteors triangulated in past and ongoing meteor camera networks. We examined if locating meteorites can be automated using machine learning and an autonomous drone. Drones can be programmed to fly a grid search pattern and take systematic pictures of the ground over a large survey area. Those images can be analyzed using a machine learning classifier to identify meteorites in the field among many other features. Here, we describe a proof-of-concept meteorite classifier that deploys off-line a combination of different convolution neural networks to recognize meteorites from images taken by drones in the field. The system was implemented in a conceptual drone setup and tested in the suspected strewn field of a recent meteorite fall near Walker Lake, Nevada.

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arXiv2021

The impact and recovery of asteroid 2018 LA

The June 2, 2018, impact of asteroid 2018 LA over Botswana is only the second asteroid detected in space prior to impacting over land. Here, we report on the successful recovery of meteorites. Additional astrometric data refine the approach orbit and define the spin period and shape of the asteroid. Video observations of the fireball constrain the asteroid's position in its orbit and were used to triangulate the location of the fireball's main flare over the Central Kalahari Game Reserve. 23 meteorites were recovered. A consortium study of eight of these classifies Motopi Pan as a HED polymict breccia derived from howardite, cumulate and basaltic eucrite, and diogenite lithologies. Before impact, 2018 LA was a solid rock of about 156 cm diameter with high bulk density about 2.85 g/cm3, a relatively low albedo pV about 0.25, no significant opposition effect on the asteroid brightness, and an impact kinetic energy of about 0.2 kt. The orbit of 2018 LA is consistent with an origin at Vesta (or its Vestoids) and delivery into an Earth-impacting orbit via the nu_6 resonance. The impact that ejected 2018 LA in an orbit towards Earth occurred 22.8 +/- 3.8 Ma ago. Zircons record a concordant U-Pb age of 4563 +/- 11 Ma and a consistent 207Pb/206Pb age of 4563 +/- 6 Ma. A much younger Pb-Pb phosphate resetting age of 4234 +/- 41 Ma was found. From this impact chronology, we discuss what is the possible source crater of Motopi Pan and the age of Vesta's Veneneia impact basin.

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arXiv2021

The Sariçiçek howardite fall in Turkey: Source crater of HED meteorites on Vesta and impact risk of Vestoids

The Sariçiçek howardite meteorite shower consisting of 343 documented stones occurred on 2 September 2015 in Turkey and is the first documented howardite fall. Cosmogenic isotopes show that Sariçiçek experienced a complex cosmic ray exposure history, exposed during ~12-14 Ma in a regolith near the surface of a parent asteroid, and that an ca.1 m sized meteoroid was launched by an impact 22 +/- 2 Ma ago to Earth (as did one third of all HED meteorites). SIMS dating of zircon and baddeleyite yielded 4550.4 +/- 2.5 Ma and 4553 +/- 8.8 Ma crystallization ages for the basaltic magma clasts. The apatite U-Pb age of 4525 +/- 17 Ma, K-Ar age of ~3.9 Ga, and the U,Th-He ages of 1.8 +/- 0.7 and 2.6 +/- 0.3 Ga are interpreted to represent thermal metamorphic and impact-related resetting ages, respectively. Petrographic, geochemical and O-, Cr- and Ti- isotopic studies confirm that Sariçiçek belongs to the normal clan of HED meteorites. Petrographic observations and analysis of organic material indicate a small portion of carbonaceous chondrite material in the Sariçiçek regolith and organic contamination of the meteorite after a few days on soil. Video observations of the fall show an atmospheric entry at 17.3 +/- 0.8 kms-1 from NW, fragmentations at 37, 33, 31 and 27 km altitude, and provide a pre-atmospheric orbit that is the first dynamical link between the normal HED meteorite clan and the inner Main Belt. Spectral data indicate the similarity of Sariçiçek with the Vesta asteroid family spectra, a group of asteroids stretching to delivery resonances, which includes (4) Vesta. Dynamical modeling of meteoroid delivery to Earth shows that the disruption of a ca.1 km sized Vesta family asteroid or a ~10 km sized impact crater on Vesta is required to provide sufficient meteoroids <4 m in size to account for the influx of meteorites from this HED clan.

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