arXiv subjects

Peter Klimek

Publications and source records attributed to Peter Klimek.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2016

Testing for voter rigging in small polling stations

Since the 1970s there has been a large number of countries that combine formal democratic institutions with authoritarian practices. Although in such countries the ruling elites may receive considerable voter support they often employ several manipulation tools to control election outcomes. A common practice of these regimes is the coercion and mobilization of a significant amount of voters to guarantee the electoral victory. This electoral irregularity is known as voter rigging, distinguishing it from vote rigging, which involves ballot stuffing or stealing. Here we develop a statistical test to quantify to which extent the results of a particular election display traces of voter rigging. Our key hypothesis is that small polling stations are more susceptible to voter rigging, because it is easier to identify opposing individuals, there are less eye witnesses, and supposedly less visits from election observers. We devise a general statistical method for testing whether voting behavior in small polling stations is significantly different from the behavior of their neighbor stations in a way that is consistent with the widespread occurrence of voter rigging. Based on a comparative analysis, the method enables to rule out whether observed differences in voting behavior might be explained by geographic heterogeneities in vote preferences. We analyze 21 elections in ten different countries and find significant anomalies compatible with voter rigging in Russia from 2007-2011, in Venezuela from 2006-2013, and in Uganda 2011. Particularly disturbing is the case of Venezuela where these distortions have been outcome-determinative in the 2013 presidential elections.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2016

Dynamical origins of the community structure of multi-layer societies

Social structures emerge as a result of individuals managing a variety of different of social relationships. Societies can be represented as highly structured dynamic multiplex networks. Here we study the dynamical origins of the specific community structures of a large-scale social multiplex network of a human society that interacts in a virtual world of a massive multiplayer online game. There we find substantial differences in the community structures of different social actions, represented by the various network layers in the multiplex. Community size distributions are either similar to a power-law or appear to be centered around a size of 50 individuals. To understand these observations we propose a voter model that is built around the principle of triadic closure. It explicitly models the co-evolution of node- and link-dynamics across different layers of the multiplex. Depending on link- and node fluctuation rates, the model exhibits an anomalous shattered fragmentation transition, where one layer fragments from one large component into many small components. The observed community size distributions are in good agreement with the predicted fragmentation in the model. We show that the empirical pairwise similarities of network layers, in terms of link overlap and degree correlations, practically coincide with the model. This suggests that several detailed features of the fragmentation in societies can be traced back to the triadic closure processes.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Systemic trade-risk of critical resources

In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis the role of strongly interconnected markets in fostering systemic instability has been increasingly acknowledged. Trade networks of commodities are susceptible to deleterious cascades of supply shocks that increase systemic trade-risks and pose a threat to geopolitical stability. On a global and a regional level we show that supply risk, scarcity, and price volatility of non-fuel mineral resources are intricately connected with the structure of the world-trade network of or spanned by these resources. On the global level we demonstrate that the scarcity of a resource, as measured by its trade volume compared to extractable reserves, is closely related to the susceptibility of the trade network with respect to cascading shocks. On the regional level we find that to some extent the region-specific price volatility and supply risk can be understood by centrality measures that capture systemic trade-risk. The resources associated with the highest systemic trade-risk indicators are often those that are produced as byproducts of major metals. We identify significant shortcomings in the management of systemic trade-risk, in particular in the EU.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2014

Instrumentational complexity of music genres and why simplicity sells

Listening habits are strongly influenced by two opposing aspects, the desire for variety and the demand for uniformity in music. In this work we quantify these two notions in terms of musical instrumentation and production technologies that are typically involved in crafting popular music. We assign a "complexity value" to each music style. A style is complex if it shows the property of having both high variety and low uniformity in instrumentation. We find a strong inverse relation between variety and uniformity of music styles that is remarkably stable over the last half century. Individual styles, however, show dramatic changes in their "complexity" during that period. Styles like "new wave" or "disco" quickly climbed towards higher complexity in the 70s and fell back to low complexity levels shortly afterwards, whereas styles like "folk rock" remained at constant high complexity levels. We show that changes in the complexity of a style are related to its number of sales and to the number of artists contributing to that style. As a style attracts a growing number of artists, its instrumentational variety usually increases. At the same time the instrumentational uniformity of a style decreases, i.e. a unique stylistic and increasingly complex expression pattern emerges. In contrast, album sales of a given style typically increase with decreasing complexity. This can be interpreted as music becoming increasingly formulaic once commercial or mainstream success sets in.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Spreading of diseases through comorbidity networks across life and gender

The state of health of patients is typically not characterized by a single disease alone but by multiple (comorbid) medical conditions. These comorbidities may depend strongly on age and gender. We propose a specific phenomenological comorbidity network of human diseases that is based on medical claims data of the entire population of Austria. The network is constructed from a two-layer multiplex network, where in one layer the links represent the conditional probability for a comorbidity, and in the other the links contain the respective statistical significance. We show that the network undergoes dramatic structural changes across the lifetime of patients.Disease networks for children consist of a single, strongly inter-connected cluster. During adolescence and adulthood further disease clusters emerge that are related to specific classes of diseases, such as circulatory, mental, or genitourinary disorders.For people above 65 these clusters start to merge and highly connected hubs dominate the network. These hubs are related to hypertension, chronic ischemic heart diseases, and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases. We introduce a simple diffusion model to understand the spreading of diseases on the disease network at the population level. For the first time we are able to show that patients predominantly develop diseases which are in close network-proximity to disorders that they already suffer. The model explains more than 85 % of the variance of all disease incidents in the population. The presented methodology could be of importance for anticipating age-dependent disease-profiles for entire populations, and for validation and of prevention schemes.

physics.med-ph↗

arXiv2014

To bail-out or to bail-in? Answers from an agent-based model

Since beginning of the 2008 financial crisis almost half a trillion euros have been spent to financially assist EU member states in taxpayer-funded bail-outs. These crisis resolutions are often accompanied by austerity programs causing political and social friction on both domestic and international levels. The question of how to resolve failing financial institutions under which economic preconditions is therefore a pressing and controversial issue of vast political importance. In this work we employ an agent-based model to study the economic and financial ramifications of three highly relevant crisis resolution mechanisms. To establish the validity of the model we show that it reproduces a series of key stylized facts if the financial and real economy. The distressed institution can either be closed via a purchase & assumption transaction, it can be bailed-out using taxpayer money, or it may be bailed-in in a debt-to-equity conversion. We find that for an economy characterized by low unemployment and high productivity the optimal crisis resolution with respect to financial stability and economic productivity is to close the distressed institution. For economies in recession with high unemployment the bail-in tool provides the most efficient crisis resolution mechanism. Under no circumstances do taxpayer-funded bail-out schemes outperform bail-ins with private sector involvement.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2013

Quantifying age- and gender-related diabetes comorbidity risks using nation-wide big claims data

Currently emerging "big data" techniques are reshaping medical science into a data science. Medical claims data allow assessing an entire nation's health state in a quantitative way, in particular with regard to the occurrences and consequences of chronic and pandemic diseases like diabetes. We develop a quantitative, statistical approach to test for associations between the incidence of type 1 or type 2 diabetes and any possible other disease as provided by the ICD10 diagnosis codes using a complete set of Austrian inpatient data. With a new co-occurrence analysis the relative risks for each possible comorbidity are studied as a function of patient age and gender, a temporal analysis investigates whether the onset of diabetes typically precedes or follows the onset of the other disease. The samples is always of maximal size, i.e. contains all patients with that comorbidity within the country. The present study is an equivalent of almost 40,000 studies, all with maximum patient number available. Out of more than thousand possible associations, 123 comorbid diseases for type 1 or type 2 diabetes are identified at high significance levels. Well known diabetic comorbidities are recovered, such as retinopathies, hypertension, chronic kidney diseases, etc. This validates the method. Additionally, a number of comorbidities are identified which have only been recognized to a lesser extent, for example epilepsy, sepsis, or mental disorders. The temporal evolution, age, and gender-dependence of these comorbidities are discussed. The new statistical-network methodology developed here can be readily applied to other chronic diseases.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2013

Statistical detection of systematic election irregularities

Democratic societies are built around the principle of free and fair elections, that each citizen's vote should count equal. National elections can be regarded as large-scale social experiments, where people are grouped into usually large numbers of electoral districts and vote according to their preferences. The large number of samples implies certain statistical consequences for the polling results which can be used to identify election irregularities. Using a suitable data collapse, we find that vote distributions of elections with alleged fraud show a kurtosis of hundred times more than normal elections on certain levels of data aggregation. As an example we show that reported irregularities in recent Russian elections are indeed well explained by systematic ballot stuffing and develop a parametric model quantifying to which extent fraudulent mechanisms are present. We show that if specific statistical properties are present in an election, the results do not represent the will of the people. We formulate a parametric test detecting these statistical properties in election results. Remarkably, this technique produces similar outcomes irrespective of the data resolution and thus allows for cross-country comparisons.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

Triadic closure dynamics drives scaling-laws in social multiplex networks

Social networks exhibit scaling-laws for several structural characteristics, such as the degree distribution, the scaling of the attachment kernel, and the clustering coefficients as a function of node degree. A detailed understanding if and how these scaling laws are inter-related is missing so far, let alone whether they can be understood through a common, dynamical principle. We propose a simple model for stationary network formation and show that the three mentioned scaling relations follow as natural consequences of triadic closure. The validity of the model is tested on multiplex data from a well studied massive multiplayer online game. We find that the three scaling exponents observed in the multiplex data for the friendship, communication and trading networks can simultaneously be explained by the model. These results suggest that triadic closure could be identified as one of the fundamental dynamical principles in social multiplex network formation.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2011

Empirical confirmation of creative destruction from world trade data

We show that world trade network datasets contain empirical evidence that the dynamics of innovation in the world economy follows indeed the concept of creative destruction, as proposed by J.A. Schumpeter more than half a century ago. National economies can be viewed as complex, evolving systems, driven by a stream of appearance and disappearance of goods and services. Products appear in bursts of creative cascades. We find that products systematically tend to co-appear, and that product appearances lead to massive disappearance events of existing products in the following years. The opposite - disappearances followed by periods of appearances - is not observed. This is an empirical validation of the dominance of cascading competitive replacement events on the scale of national economies, i.e. creative destruction. We find a tendency that more complex products drive out less complex ones, i.e. progress has a direction. Finally we show that the growth trajectory of a country's product output diversity can be understood by a recently proposed evolutionary model of Schumpeterian economic dynamics.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2011

The blogosphere as an excitable social medium: Richter's and Omori's Law in media coverage

We study the dynamics of public media attention by monitoring the content of online blogs. Social and media events can be traced by the propagation of word frequencies of related keywords. Media events are classified as exogenous - where blogging activity is triggered by an external news item - or endogenous where word frequencies build up within a blogging community without external influences. We show that word occurrences show statistical similarities to earthquakes. The size distribution of media events follows a Gutenberg-Richter law, the dynamics of media attention before and after the media event follows Omori's law. We present further empirical evidence that for media events of endogenous origin the overall public reception of the event is correlated with the behavior of word frequencies at the beginning of the event, and is to a certain degree predictable. These results may imply that the process of opinion formation in a human society might be related to effects known from excitable media.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2010

Logical independence and quantum randomness

We propose a link between logical independence and quantum physics. We demonstrate that quantum systems in the eigenstates of Pauli group operators are capable of encoding mathematical axioms and show that Pauli group quantum measurements are capable of revealing whether or not a given proposition is logically dependent on the axiomatic system. Whenever a mathematical proposition is logically independent of the axioms encoded in the measured state, the measurement associated with the proposition gives random outcomes. This allows for an experimental test of logical independence. Conversely, it also allows for an explanation of the probabilities of random outcomes observed in Pauli group measurements from logical independence without invoking quantum theory. The axiomatic systems we study can be completed and are therefore not subject to Goedel's incompleteness theorem.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2009

Evolutionary dynamics from a variational principle

We demonstrate with a thought experiment that fitness-based population dynamical approaches to evolution are not able to make quantitative, falsifiable predictions about the long-term behavior of evolutionary systems. A key characteristic of evolutionary systems is the ongoing endogenous production of new species. These novel entities change the conditions for already existing species. Even {\em Darwin's Demon}, a hypothetical entity with exact knowledge of the abundance of all species and their fitness functions at a given time, could not pre-state the impact of these novelties on established populations. We argue that fitness is always {\it a posteriori} knowledge -- it measures but does not explain why a species has reproductive success or not. To overcome these conceptual limitations, a variational principle is proposed in a spin-model-like setup of evolutionary systems. We derive a functional which is minimized under the most general evolutionary formulation of a dynamical system, i.e. evolutionary trajectories causally emerge as a minimization of a functional. This functional allows the derivation of analytic solutions of the asymptotic diversity for stochastic evolutionary systems within a mean-field approximation. We test these approximations by numerical simulations of the corresponding model and find good agreement in the position of phase transitions in diversity curves. The model is further able to reproduce stylized facts of timeseries from several man-made and natural evolutionary systems. Light will be thrown on how species and their fitness landscapes dynamically co-evolve.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2009

Schumpeterian economic dynamics as a quantifiable minimum model of evolution

We propose a simple quantitative model of Schumpeterian economic dynamics. New goods and services are endogenously produced through combinations of existing goods. As soon as new goods enter the market they may compete against already existing goods, in other words new products can have destructive effects on existing goods. As a result of this competition mechanism existing goods may be driven out from the market - often causing cascades of secondary defects (Schumpeterian gales of destruction). The model leads to a generic dynamics characterized by phases of relative economic stability followed by phases of massive restructuring of markets - which could be interpreted as Schumpeterian business `cycles'. Model timeseries of product diversity and productivity reproduce several stylized facts of economics timeseries on long timescales such as GDP or business failures, including non-Gaussian fat tailed distributions, volatility clustering etc. The model is phrased in an open, non-equilibrium setup which can be understood as a self organized critical system. Its diversity dynamics can be understood by the time-varying topology of the active production networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2008

Parkinson's Law Quantified: Three Investigations on Bureaucratic Inefficiency

We formulate three famous, descriptive essays of C.N. Parkinson on bureaucratic inefficiency in a quantifiable and dynamical socio-physical framework. In the first model we show how the use of recent opinion formation models for small groups can be used to understand Parkinson's observation that decision making bodies such as cabinets or boards become highly inefficient once their size exceeds a critical 'Coefficient of Inefficiency', typically around 20. A second observation of Parkinson - which is sometimes referred to as Parkinson's Law - is that the growth of bureaucratic or administrative bodies usually goes hand in hand with a drastic decrease of its overall efficiency. In our second model we view a bureaucratic body as a system of a flow of workers, which enter, become promoted to various internal levels within the system over time, and leave the system after having served for a certain time. Promotion usually is associated with an increase of subordinates. Within the proposed model it becomes possible to work out the phase diagram under which conditions bureaucratic growth can be confined. In our last model we assign individual efficiency curves to workers throughout their life in administration, and compute the optimum time to send them to old age pension, in order to ensure a maximum of efficiency within the body - in Parkinson's words we compute the 'Pension Point'.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2008

Pruning the Tree of Life: k-core Percolation as Selection Mechanism

We propose a model for evolution aiming to reproduce statistical features of fossil data, in particular the distributions of extinction events, the distribution of species per genus and the distribution of lifetimes, all of which are known to be of power law type. The model incorporates both species-species interactions and ancestral relationships. The main novelty of this work is to show the feasibility of k-core percolation as a selection mechanism. We give theoretical predictions for the observable distributions, confirm their validity by computer simulation and report good agreement with the fossil data. A key feature of the proposed model is a co-evolving fitness landscape determined by the topology of the underlying species interactions, ecological niches emerge naturally. The predicted distributions are independent of the rate of speciation, i.e. whether one adopts an gradualist or punctuated view of evolution.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2008

To how many politicians should government be left?

The quality of governance of institutions, corporations and countries depends on the ability of efficient decision making within the respective boards or cabinets. Opinion formation processes within groups are size dependent. It is often argued - as now e.g. in the discussion of the future size of the European Commission - that decision making bodies of a size beyond 20 become strongly inefficient. We report empirical evidence that the performance of national governments declines with increasing membership and undergoes a qualitative change in behavior at a particular group size. We use recent UNDP, World Bank and CIA data on overall government efficacy, i.e. stability, the quality of policy formulation as well as human development indices of individual countries and relate it to the country's cabinet size. We are able to understand our findings through a simple physical model of opinion dynamics in groups.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2007

Studies in the physics of evolution: creation, formation, destruction

The concept of (auto)catalytic systems has become a cornerstone in understanding evolutionary processes in various fields. The common ground is the observation that for the production of new species/goods/ideas/elements etc. the pre-existence of specific other elements is a necessary condition. In previous work some of us showed that the dynamics of the catalytic network equation can be understood in terms of topological recurrence relations paving a path towards the analytic tractability of notoriously high dimensional evolution equations. We apply this philosophy to studies in socio-physics, bio-diversity and massive events of creation and destruction in technological and biological networks. Cascading events, triggered by small exogenous fluctuations, lead to dynamics strongly resembling the qualitative picture of Schumpeterian economic evolution. Further we show that this new methodology allows to mathematically treat a variant of the threshold voter-model of opinion formation on networks. For fixed topology we find distinct phases of mixed opinions and consensus.

q-bio.PE↗