SearcharxivSearch

arXiv subjects

Peter Kotanko

Publications and source records attributed to Peter Kotanko.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

Toward World Modeling of Physiological Signals with Chaos-Theoretic Balancing and Latent Dynamics

Physiological time series signals reflect complex, multi-scale dynamical processes of the human body. Existing modeling studies focus on static tasks such as classification, event forecasting, or short-horizon next step prediction, while long-horizon signal-level forecasting and predictive nature of physiological signals remain underexplored. We introduce NormWear-2, a world model that encodes both multivariate physiological signals and clinical intervention variables into a shared latent space and models their joint temporal evolution as a dynamical system. Our approach combines inference from prior pre-trained knowledge (intuition) with instant non-parametric latent state transition adaptation (insight), enabling coherent forecasting across multiple temporal scales, conditioned on heterogeneous clinical interventions. During the pretraining phase, we find that chaos-theoretic balancing of dynamical regime diversity yields more robust representations, with a smaller balanced corpus outperforming one twice its size and capturing bifurcation regimes. We evaluate the world model performance across diverse real-world physiological datasets spanning heterogeneous temporal resolutions and intervention regimes, covering daily life, point-of-care, and clinical settings, including fitness planning, hemodialysis, diabetes management, and surgical monitoring. These evaluation datasets comprise records from 8,026 subjects, spanning study durations from 3.2 hours for high-resolution signal data to 2.3 years for longitudinal clinical biomarker tracking. NormWear-2 achieves the best overall forecasting performance across time, frequency, and latent representation domains, with significant improvements over state-of-the-art time series foundation models, while maintaining competitive downstream representation quality, providing a step toward general-purpose world models for physiological signals.

cs.LG

A Multiprocess State Space Model with Feedback and Switching for Patterns of Clinical Measurements Associated with COVID-19

Clinical measurements, such as body temperature, are often collected over time to monitor an individual's underlying health condition. These measurements exhibit complex temporal dynamics, necessitating sophisticated statistical models to capture patterns and detect deviations. We propose a novel multiprocess state space model with feedback and switching mechanisms to analyze the dynamics of clinical measurements. This model captures the evolution of time series through distinct latent processes and incorporates feedback effects in the transition probabilities between latent processes. We develop estimation methods using the EM algorithm, integrated with multiprocess Kalman filtering and multiprocess fixed-interval smoothing. Simulation study shows that the algorithm is efficient and performs well. We apply the proposed model to body temperature measurements from COVID-19-infected hemodialysis patients to examine temporal dynamics and estimate infection and recovery probabilities.

stat.ME

A Nonparametric Mixed-Effects Mixture Model for Patterns of Clinical Measurements Associated with COVID-19

Some patients with COVID-19 show changes in signs and symptoms such as temperature and oxygen saturation days before being positively tested for SARS-CoV-2, while others remain asymptomatic. It is important to identify these subgroups and to understand what biological and clinical predictors are related to these subgroups. This information will provide insights into how the immune system may respond differently to infection and can further be used to identify infected individuals. We propose a flexible nonparametric mixed-effects mixture model that identifies risk factors and classifies patients with biological changes. We model the latent probability of biological changes using a logistic regression model and trajectories in the latent groups using smoothing splines. We developed an EM algorithm to maximize the penalized likelihood for estimating all parameters and mean functions. We evaluate our methods by simulations and apply the proposed model to investigate changes in temperature in a cohort of COVID-19-infected hemodialysis patients.

stat.ME

Data-Driven Modeling and Control of Complex Dynamical Systems Arising in Renal Anemia Therapy

This project is based on a mathematical model of erythropoiesis for anemia, which consists of five hyperbolic population equations describing the production of red blood cells under treatment with epoetin-alfa (EPO). Extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD) is utilized to approximate the non-linear dynamical systems by linear ones. This allows for efficient and reliable strategies based on a combination of EDMD and model predictive control (MPC), which produces results comparable with the one obtained in past publications for the original model.

math.OC