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Peter Mills

Publications and source records attributed to Peter Mills.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

Solving for multi-class using orthogonal coding matrices

A common method of generalizing binary to multi-class classification is the error correcting code (ECC). ECCs may be optimized in a number of ways, for instance by making them orthogonal. Here we test two types of orthogonal ECCs on seven different datasets using three types of binary classifier and compare them with three other multi-class methods: 1 vs. 1, one-versus-the-rest and random ECCs. The first type of orthogonal ECC, in which the codes contain no zeros, admits a fast and simple method of solving for the probabilities. Orthogonal ECCs are always more accurate than random ECCs as predicted by recent literature. Improvments in uncertainty coefficient (U.C.) range between 0.4--17.5% (0.004--0.139, absolute), while improvements in Brier score between 0.7--10.7%. Unfortunately, orthogonal ECCs are rarely more accurate than 1 vs. 1. Disparities are worst when the methods are paired with logistic regression, with orthogonal ECCs never beating 1 vs. 1. When the methods are paired with SVM, the losses are less significant, peaking at 1.5%, relative, 0.011 absolute in uncertainty coefficient and 6.5% in Brier scores. Orthogonal ECCs are always the fastest of the five multi-class methods when paired with linear classifiers. When paired with a piecewise linear classifier, whose classification speed does not depend on the number of training samples, classifications using orthogonal ECCs were always more accurate than the other methods and also faster than 1 vs. 1. Losses against 1 vs. 1 here were higher, peaking at 1.9% (0.017, absolute), in U.C. and 39% in Brier score. Gains in speed ranged between 1.1% and over 100%. Whether the speed increase is worth the penalty in accuracy will depend on the application.

stat.ML

Accelerating Kernel Classifiers Through Borders Mapping

Support vector machines (SVM) and other kernel techniques represent a family of powerful statistical classification methods with high accuracy and broad applicability. Because they use all or a significant portion of the training data, however, they can be slow, especially for large problems. Piecewise linear classifiers are similarly versatile, yet have the additional advantages of simplicity, ease of interpretation and, if the number of component linear classifiers is not too large, speed. Here we show how a simple, piecewise linear classifier can be trained from a kernel-based classifier in order to improve the classification speed. The method works by finding the root of the difference in conditional probabilities between pairs of opposite classes to build up a representation of the decision boundary. When tested on 17 different datasets, it succeeded in improving the classification speed of a SVM for 12 of them by up to two orders-of-magnitude. Of these, two were less accurate than a simple, linear classifier. The method is best suited to problems with continuum features data and smooth probability functions. Because the component linear classifiers are built up individually from an existing classifier, rather than through a simultaneous optimization procedure, the classifier is also fast to train.

stat.ML

Solving for multi-class: a survey and synthesis

Many of the best statistical classification algorithms are binary classifiers that can only distinguish between one of two classes. The number of possible ways of generalizing binary classification to multi-class increases exponentially with the number of classes. There is some indication that the best method will depend on the dataset. Hence, we are particularly interested in data-driven solution design, whether based on prior considerations or on empirical examination of the data. Here we demonstrate how a recursive control language can be used to describe a multitude of different partitioning strategies in multi-class classification, including those in most common use. We use it both to manually construct new partitioning configurations as well as to examine those that have been automatically designed. Eight different strategies were tested on eight different datasets using a support vector machine (SVM) as the base binary classifier. Numerical results suggest that a one-size-fits-all solution consisting of one-versus-one is appropriate for most datasets. Three datasets showed better accuracy using different methods. The best solution for the most improved dataset exploited a property of the data to produce an uncertainty coefficient 36\% higher (0.016 absolute gain) than one-vs.-one. For the same dataset, an adaptive solution that empirically examined the data was also more accurate than one-vs.-one while being faster.

stat.ML

PC Proxy: A Method for Dynamical Tracer Reconstruction

A detailed development of the principal component proxy method of dynamical tracer reconstruction is presented, including error analysis. The method works by correlating the largest principal components of a matrix representation of the transport dynamics with a set of sparse measurements. The Lyapunov spectrum was measured and used to quantify the lifetime of each principal component. The method was tested on the 500 K isentropic surface with stratospheric ozone concentration measurements from the Polar Aerosol and Ozone Measurement (POAM) III satellite instrument during October and November 1998 and compared with the older proxy tracer method which works by correlating measurements with a single other tracer or proxy. Using a 60 day integration time and five (5) principal components, cross validation of globally reconstructed ozone and comparison with ozone sondes returned root-mean-square errors of 0.16 ppmv and 0.36 ppmv, respectively. This compares favourably with the classic proxy tracer method in which a passive tracer equivalent latitude field was used for the proxy and which returned RMS errors of 0.22 ppmv and 0.59 ppmv for cross-validation and sonde validation respectively. The method seems especially effective for shorter lived tracers and was far more accurate than the classic method at predicting ozone concentration in the Southern hemisphere over the same time period. It is also more effective when reconstruction is performed over the entire Earth rather than a single hemisphere allowing for seamless reconstruction of global fields.

physics.ao-ph

Matrix Analysis of Tracer Transport

We review matrix methods as applied to tracer transport. Because tracer transport is linear, matrix methods are an ideal fit for the problem. A gridded, Eulerian tracer simulation can be approximated as a system of linear ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The first-order stretching and deformation of Lagrangian space can also be calculated using a system of linear ODEs. Solutions to these equations are reviewed as well as special properties. Using matrices to model Eulerian tracer transport can also help understand and improve the stability of numerical solutions. Detailed derivations are included.

physics.ao-ph

Principal component proxy tracer analysis

We introduce a powerful method for dynamical reconstruction of long-lived tracers such as ozone. It works by correlating the principal components of a matrix representation of the tracer dynamics with a series of sparse measurements. The method is tested on the 500 K isentropic surface using a simulated tracer and with ozone measurements from the Polar Aerosol and Ozone Measurement (POAM) III satellite instrument. The Lyapunov spectrum is measured and used to quantify the lifetime of each principal component. Using a 60 day lead time and five (5) principal components, cross validation of the reconstructed ozone and comparison with ozone sondes return root-mean-square errors of 0.20 ppmv and 0.47 ppmv, respectively.

physics.ao-ph

Efficient statistical classification of satellite measurements

Supervised statistical classification is a vital tool for satellite image processing. It is useful not only when a discrete result, such as feature extraction or surface type, is required, but also for continuum retrievals by dividing the quantity of interest into discrete ranges. Because of the high resolution of modern satellite instruments and because of the requirement for real-time processing, any algorithm has to be fast to be useful. Here we describe an algorithm based on kernel estimation called Adaptive Gaussian Filtering that incorporates several innovations to produce superior efficiency as compared to three other popular methods: k-nearest-neighbour (KNN), Learning Vector Quantization (LVQ) and Support Vector Machines (SVM). This efficiency is gained with no compromises: accuracy is maintained, while estimates of the conditional probabilities are returned. These are useful not only to gauge the accuracy of an estimate in the absence of its true value, but also to re-calibrate a retrieved image and as a proxy for a discretized continuum variable. The algorithm is demonstrated and compared with the other three on a pair of synthetic test classes and to map the waterways of the Netherlands. Software may be found at: http://libagf.sourceforge.net.

physics.ao-ph

Multi-borders classification

The number of possible methods of generalizing binary classification to multi-class classification increases exponentially with the number of class labels. Often, the best method of doing so will be highly problem dependent. Here we present classification software in which the partitioning of multi-class classification problems into binary classification problems is specified using a recursive control language.

stat.ML

Microwave emissivity of fresh water ice--Lake ice and Antarctic ice pack--Radiative transfer simulations versus satellite radiances

Microwave emissivity models of sea ice are poorly validated empirically. Typical validation studies involve using averaged or stereotyped profiles of ice parameters against averaged radiance measurements. Measurement sites are rarely matched and even less often point-by-point. Because of saline content, complex permittivity of sea ice is highly variable and difficult to predict. Therefore, to check the validity of a typical, plane-parallel, radiative-transfer-based ice emissivity model, we apply it to fresh water ice instead of salt-water ice. Radiance simulations for lake ice are compared with measurements over Lake Superior from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS (AMSR-E). AMSR-E measurements are also collected over Antarctic icepack. For each pixel, a thermodynamic model is driven by four years of European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data and the resulting temperature profiles used to drive the emissivity model. The results suggest that the relatively simple emissivity model is a good fit to the data. Both cases, however, show large discrepencies whose most likely explanation is scattering both within the ice sheet as well as by cloudy atmospheres. Scattering is neglected by the model. Further work is needed to refine the scattering component of ice emissivity models and to generate accurate estimates of complex permittivities within sea ice.

physics.ao-ph

Sea Ice Brightness Temperature as a Function of Ice Thickness, Part II: Computed curves for thermodynamically modelled ice profiles

Ice thickness is an important variable for climate scientists and is still difficult to accurately determine from microwave radiometer measurements. There has been some success detecting the thickness of thin ice and with this in mind this study attempts to model the thickness-radiance relation of sea ice at frequencies employed by the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) radiometer and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR): between 1.4 and 89 GHz. In the first part of the study, the salinity of the ice was determined by a pair of empirical relationships, while the temperature was determined by a thermodynamic model. Because the thermodynamic model can be used as a simple ice growth model, in this, second part, the salinities are determined by the growth model. Because the model uses two, constant-weather scenarios representing two extremes ("fall freeze-up" and "winter cold snap"), brine expulsion is modelled with a single correction-step founded on mass conservation. The growth model generates realistic salinity profiles, however it over-estimates the bulk salinity because gravity drainage is not accounted for. The results suggest that the formation of "skim" on the ice surface is important in determining the radiance signature of thin ice, especially at lower frequencies, while scattering is important mainly at higher frequencies but at all ice thicknesses.

physics.ao-ph

Microwave emissivity of freshwater ice, Part II: Modelling the Great Bear and Great Slave Lakes

Lake ice within three Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS (AMSR-E) pixels over the Great Bear and Great Slave Lakes have been simulated with the Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo). The resulting thicknesses and temperatures were fed to a radiative transfer-based ice emissivity model and compared to the satellite measurements at three frequencies---6.925 GHz, 10.65 GHz and 18.7 GHz. Excluding the melt season, the model was found to have strong predictive power, returning a correlation of 0.926 and a residual of 0.78 Kelvin at 18 GHz, vertical polarization. Discrepencies at melt season are thought to be caused by the presence of dirt in the snow cover which makes the microwave signature more like soil rather than ice. Except at 18 GHz, all results showed significant bias compared to measured values. Further work needs to be done to determine the source of this bias.

physics.ao-ph

Isoline retrieval: An optimal sounding method for validation of advected contours

The study of chaotic mixing is important for its potential to improve our understanding of fluid systems. Contour advection simulations provide a good model of the phenomenon by tracking the evolution of one or more contours or isolines of a trace substance to a high level of precision. The most accurate method of validating an advected contour is to divide the tracer concentration into discrete ranges and perform a maximum likelihood classification, a method that we term, "isoline retrieval." Conditional probabilities generated as a result provide excellent error characterization. In this study, a water vapour isoline of 0.001 mass-mixing-ratio is advected over five days in the upper troposphere and compared with high-resolution AMSU (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit) satellite retrievals. The goal is to find the same fine-scale, chaotic mixing in the isoline retrievals as seen in the advection simulations. Some of the filaments generated by the simulations show up in the conditional probabilities as areas of reduced probability. By rescaling the probabilities, the filaments may be revealed in the isoline retrievals proper with little effect on the overall accuracy. Limitations imposed by the specific context, i.e. water-vapour retrieved with AMSU in the upper troposphere, are discussed. Nonetheless, isoline retrieval is shown to be a highly effective technique for atmospheric sounding, showing good agreement with both ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) assimilation data and radiosonde measurements. Software for isoline retrieval can be found at: http://isoret.sourceforge.net

physics.ao-ph

Sea Ice Brightness Temperature as a Function of Ice Thickness: Computed curves for AMSR-E and SMOS (frequencies from 1.4 to 89 GHz)

The relationship between sea ice thickness and microwave brightness temperature is explored. Parameterized ice profiles are fed to a radiative-transfer-based sea ice emissivity model (Microwave Emmission of Layered Snowpack, MEMLS). Complex permittivities, required as input for the simulation, are determined using a semi-empirical mixture model. Since the thickness-radiance relation is not fixed but can vary significantly depending upon past and current weather conditions, we determine a range of brightness temperature values for each thickness. This is done using a bootstrap model in which the salinities are varied based on variances supplied with the thickness-salinity curve and the complex permittivities are varied based on variance supplied by the mixture model. The results suggest that scattering is one of the most important parameters determining sea ice brightness temperature, especially for new and forming ice. Further work must be done to accurately model both scattering and complex permittivities in sea ice.

physics.ao-ph