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Peter Plavchan

Publications and source records attributed to Peter Plavchan.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

The HST/WFC3 Transmission Spectrum of AU Mic b Part I: An Atmosphere Obscured by Contamination and Systematics

Young sub-Neptune progenitors around M dwarfs offer an excellent opportunity to probe the formation of their abundant, older cousins. At $\sim$20 Myr and only 9.7 pc away, AU Mic b is an ideal candidate for this effort, with its density and observations of escaping hydrogen pointing to a significant primordial atmosphere. Here we present the 0.8-1.6 $\micron$ transmission spectrum of AU Mic b observed with the Wide Field Camera 3 on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). We find that HST experienced unstable scanning during its visits, resulting in a variable PSF that dramatically affects the orbit-to-orbit baseline of the observations. While we were able to somewhat mitigate this problem through spectral binning, the effects cannot be completely eliminated, limiting the precision of our results. Our data is further impacted by the intense magnetic activity of AU Mic, which introduced significant rotational variability along with spot crossings and the transit light source (TLS) effect into the light curves and spectrum, respectively. Through decomposition of the out-of-transit stellar SED, we are able to constrain AU Mic's photospheric and spot temperatures to 3891$\pm$37 and 3020$\pm$69 K, respectively, with a spot filling factor of $0.33\pm0.05$. Using Bayesian atmospheric retrievals, we show that the spectrum is dominated by the TLS effect with weak atmospheric constraints, with the data preferring a relatively small scale height of $<$185 km to 3$\sigma$. Extrapolation of our retrieved spectra shows that the TLS effect dominates over atmospheric features at optical and infrared wavelengths.

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Mapping Stellar Heterogeneities with the Nautilus Space Observatory

Stellar photospheric heterogeneities, such as starspots and faculae, are a fundamental limitation for exoplanet transmission spectroscopy. Inhomogeneous surfaces can imprint wavelength-dependent signals during transits that may mimic or mask atmospheric absorption features, especially for planets orbiting cool low-mass stars. Recent work has shown that the information content of transmission spectroscopy observations can be sufficient to correct for stellar contamination, but only if stellar photosphere and active-region models have adequate fidelity. This requires empirical benchmarking with observations that validate next-generation stellar models and identify which spectral diagnostics best encode heterogeneity properties as a function of spectral type, activity level, and time. We propose a two-generation Nautilus program that leverages the scalable architecture of the observatory concept. Generation 1 would use broad-wavelength time-series observations of transiting exoplanet systems to connect starspot-crossing events and out-of-transit variability to localized and disk-integrated heterogeneity properties. Generation 2 would use the optimized spectral diagnostics identified in Generation 1 to conduct slitless spectroscopic monitoring of large samples of GKM stars on different timescales. Generation 2 instrumentation would include activity tracers of both the photosphere and chromosphere. This program would provide the benchmark data and population-level framework needed to turn stellar contamination into a calibrated input for exoplanet atmospheric retrievals.

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A Scalable Path to Astrometric Exomoon Discoveries with the Nautilus Space Observatory

Moons orbiting exoplanets (exomoons) can be detected through the reflex motion they impart to their host planet, which is recoverable in relative star-planet astrometric time series. The signal grows with moon mass and orbital separation and decreases with distance, so the nearest and least massive imaged planets are the most favorable targets. Recovering small (<Earth-mass) moons requires continuous, long-baseline, high-precision monitoring that is only practical with a dedicated or nearly dedicated facility. Building on recent simulations of astrometric exomoon detection and of the resulting population yields, we argue that the scalable, replicable architecture of the Nautilus Space Observatory is uniquely suited to this problem, and we outline a staged campaign. In an initial phase, one or a few small apertures target the nearest imaged giant planets--a high-reward but low-probability search focused on the closest stars. As the array is built out, the astrometric noise floor decreases and the same technique extends the search to the nearest such systems among nearby stars of spectral type K and earlier. This would be performed in parallel with high-contrast imaging and spectral characterization of the host planets and in synergy with a companion starshade concept for imaging Earth-like planets around the same nearby stars. Nautilus thus provides a scalable path from the first detection of a nearby exomoon toward a systematic search for exomoons around the closest stars.

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Nautilus Space Observatory: The Evolution of Planets and their Atmospheres

We are just beginning to explore the billion-year evolution from nascent planets in disks to mature planetary systems. Recent discoveries hint at demographic and atmospheric differences between young planets and their Gyr-old counterparts, but current facilities are limited - particularly in their ability to conduct statistical atmospheric studies over a broad period range. This white paper outlines compelling science achievable with the Nautilus Space Observatory, a proposed constellation of large-diameter space telescopes. We identify four primary scientific objectives: (1) determining the timescales over which planets evolve into sub-Neptunes and super-Earths; (2) tracking the temporal evolution of atmospheric mass-loss rates; (3) characterizing the evolution of the atmospheric mean molecular weight and C/O ratio; and (4) identifying the emergence of Helium-dominated worlds. Answering these questions requires the high spatial resolution, broad-wavelength coverage, large effective area, and parallelized multiple units that Nautilus provides. By isolating the physical processes that govern the evolution of planets and their atmospheres, these science objectives directly support NASA's Cosmic Origins and Exoplanet Exploration Programs.

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The Pan-Pacific Planet Search -- IX. A menagerie of companions orbiting evolved stars

We present resolutions as to the nature of six speculative candidate companions proposed in the final data release of the Pan-Pacific Planet Search, a 6-year radial-velocity survey of 164 southern evolved stars using the now-decommissioned UCLES spectrograph on the 3.9m Anglo-Australian Telescope. New radial-velocity observations, TESS asteroseismology, and Hipparcos-Gaia astrometry are incorporated to refine the companion and host-star parameters. We confirm that HD 126105b is a giant planet ($P=524.0\pm$2.9 d, $m$ sin $i=1.67^{+0.19}_{-0.17}M_{Jup}$), and that HD 205577B is a massive, eccentric brown dwarf ($P\sim$11.2 yr, $m=77^{+11}_{-9}M_{Jup}$, $e=0.68$). HD 115066B and HD 121156B are low-mass stellar companions, while HD 114899 and HD 159743 are shown to be unadorned by any detectable companions whatsoever. This demonstrates the utility of astrometric information to help overcome the temporal limitations of incomplete radial-velocity data sets and elucidate the true nature of suspected companion bodies.

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Thermal Eclipse Observation of the Young Hot Neptune AU Mic b with Spitzer

We present the observation of a secondary eclipse of the young hot Neptune, AU Mic b, in the infrared using the Spitzer Space Telescope. Using a primary transit from Spitzer to constrain the system parameters, we tentatively detect an eclipse centered at $BJD=2458740.848893^{+0.00010}_{-0.000099}$ with an observed depth of $171\pm{29}$ ppm given an uninformed prior. This corresponds to a dayside brightness temperature of $T=1031\pm{58}$ K, which exceeds the calculated equilibrium temperature of $606\pm{19}$ K. We explore some possible explanations for these results, including inefficient heat redistribution, gravitational contraction, stellar pulsations, instrument systematics and choice of eclipse depth prior, but find none of these to be likely explanations for the observed eclipse parameters. We also explore the impact of correlated noise in the systematic trends, and we find that splitting the systematics into low-pass (smoothing) and high-pass trends is required to reach an optimal minimization of the low-frequency systematics in the resulting detrended light curve. Future observations with JWST are needed to confirm our eclipse detection with Spitzer.

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Why Estimating $\eta_\oplus$ is Difficult: A Kepler-Centric Perspective

$\eta_{\oplus}$, the occurrence rate of rocky habitable zone exoplanets orbiting Sun-like stars, is of great interest to both the astronomical community and the general public. The Kepler space telescope has made it possible to estimate $\eta_{\oplus}$, but estimates by different groups vary by more than an order of magnitude. We identify several causes for this range of estimates. We first review why, despite being designed to estimate $\eta_{\oplus}$, Kepler's observations are not sufficient for a high-confidence estimate, due to Kepler's detection limit coinciding with the $\eta_{\oplus}$ regime. This results in a need to infer $\eta_{\oplus}$, for example extrapolating from a regime of non-habitable zone, non-rocky exoplanets. We examine two broad classes of causes that can account for the large discrepancy in $\eta_\oplus$ found in the literature: a) differences in definitions and input data between studies, and b) fundamental limits in Kepler data that lead to large uncertainties and poor accuracy. We highlight the risk of large biases when using extrapolation to describe small exoplanet populations in the habitable zone. We discuss how $\eta_{\oplus}$ estimates based on Kepler data can be improved, such as reprocessing Kepler data for more complete, higher-reliability detections and better exoplanet catalog characterization. We briefly survey upcoming space telescopes capable of measuring $\eta_{\oplus}$, and how they can be used to supplement Kepler data.

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The Spin-orbit alignment of two short period eclipsing binary systems

We present a joint analysis of TESS photometry and radial velocity measurements obtained from the Minerva-Australis facility for two short-period eclipsing binaries, TIC 48227288 and TIC 339607421. TIC 339607421 hosts an M-dwarf companion ($M_B = 0.294 \pm 0.013 \: M_{\odot}$, $R_B = 0.291 \pm 0.006 \: R_{\odot}$) orbiting an F6V star ($M_A=1.09 \pm 0.04 \: M_{\odot}$, $R_A=1.21^{+0.03}_{-0.02} \: R_{\odot}$). While TIC 48227288 contains a late K class companion ($M_B=0.635 \pm 0.037 \: M_{\odot}$, $R_B = 0.605 \pm 0.011 \: R_{\odot}$) orbiting an F3V star ($M_A = 1.36^{+0.06}_{-0.08} \: M_{\odot}$, $R_A = 1.61 \pm 0.03 \: R_{\odot}$). Both companions follow short period, near-circular orbits ($P_B = 2.4-3.0$ d, $e \approx 0.001$). Sky-projected obliquities for each system were derived using a classical analysis of the RV perturbation and the Reloaded Rossiter-McLaughlin (RRM) technique. The classical method indicates minor spin-orbit misalignment for both systems ($\lambda_A = -14.7^{+5.4}_{-5.9}$ deg and $-17.8^{+1.9}_{-2.0}$ deg for TIC 339607421 and TIC 48227288, respectively). The RRM analysis yields smaller obliquities ($\lambda_A = -8.2 \pm 0.2$ deg and $-9.5 \pm 0.2$ deg respectively), but confirms the minor misalignment inferred from the classical analysis. The findings of misaligned, circular orbits are notable even though the misalignments are not large, and suggest potential gaps in current models of binary formation and orbital evolution. As such, further investigation of these and similar systems appears warranted.

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The TESS Grand Unified Hot Jupiter Survey. III. Thirty More Giant Planets

We present the discovery of 30 transiting giant planets that were initially detected using data from NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission. These new planets orbit relatively bright ($G \leq 12.5$) FGK host stars with orbital periods between 1.6 and 8.2 days, and have radii between 0.9 and 1.7 Jupiter radii. We performed follow-up ground-based photometry, high angular-resolution imaging, high-resolution spectroscopy and radial velocity monitoring for each of these objects to confirm that they are planets and determine their masses and other system parameters. The planets' masses span more than an order of magnitude ($0.17\,M_J < M_p < 3.3\,M_J$). For two planets, TOI-3593 b and TOI-4961 b, we measured significant non-zero eccentricities of $0.11^{+0.05}_{-0.03}$ and $0.18^{+0.04}_{-0.05}$ respectively, while for the other planets, the data typically provide a 1-$\sigma$ upper bound of 0.15 on the eccentricity. These discoveries represent a major step toward assembling a complete, magnitude-limited sample of transiting hot Jupiters around FGK stars.

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Giant Outer Transiting Exoplanet Mass (GOT 'EM) Survey. VI: Confirmation of a Long-Period Giant Planet Discovered with a Single TESS Transit

We report the discovery and confirmation of TOI-4465 b, a $1.25^{+0.08}_{-0.07}~R_{J}$, $5.89\pm0.26~M_{J}$ giant planet orbiting a G dwarf star at $d\simeq$ 122 pc. The planet was detected as a single-transit event in data from Sector 40 of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission. Radial velocity (RV) observations of TOI-4465 showed a planetary signal with an orbital period of $\sim$102 days, and an orbital eccentricity of $e=0.24\pm0.01$. TESS re-observed TOI-4465 in Sector 53 and Sector 80, but did not detect another transit of TOI-4465 b, as the planet was not expected to transit during these observations based on the RV period. A global ground-based photometry campaign was initiated to observe another transit of TOI-4465 b after the RV period determination. The $\sim$12 hour-long transit event was captured from multiple sites around the world, and included observations from 24 citizen scientists, confirming the orbital period as $\sim$102 days. TOI-4465 b is a relatively dense ($3.73\pm0.53~\rm{g/cm^3}$), temperate (375-478 K) giant planet. Based on giant planet structure models, TOI-4465 b appears to be enriched in heavy elements at a level consistent with late-stage accretion of icy planetesimals. Additionally, we explore TOI-4465 b's potential for atmospheric characterization, and obliquity measurement. Increasing the number of long-period planets by confirming single-transit events is crucial for understanding the frequency and demographics of planet populations in the outer regions of planetary systems.

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Far-ultraviolet flares and variability of the young M dwarf AU Mic: a non-detection of planet c in transit at Lyman-alpha

Atmospheric escape's potential to shape the exoplanet population motivates detailed observations of systems actively undergoing escape. AU Mic is a young and active M dwarf hosting two close-in transiting sub- to Neptune-sized planets. Atmospheric escape was previously detected on the inner planet b, with radially-blown neutral hydrogen producing ~30% blue-shifted absorption in Lyman-alpha. We obtained one HST/STIS transit of the outer planet c, to search for the planet's escaping atmosphere in transmission at Lyman-alpha and compare with AU Mic b. We detected 6 short-duration flares in Si IV and C IV, of which only one corresponded to a Lyman-alpha flare. We identified longer-duration stellar variability at the tens of percent level for lines less sensitive to stellar activity, including O I, C II and Lyman-alpha, which inhibits detection of an exosphere. We do not report absorption associated with an exosphere containing neutral hydrogen or any metals detectable in the far-ultraviolet, and discuss the implications of the non-detection. This work highlights the importance of 1) careful consideration of stellar variability in atmospheric escape observations, and 2) the dual-influence of photoionization and stellar wind when interpreting and modeling atmospheric escape.

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The NEID Earth Twin Survey. II. Dynamical Masses in Seven High-acceleration Star Systems

We present a set of companion dynamical masses and orbital parameters of seven star systems from the NEID Earth Twin Survey with significant absolute astrometric accelerations between the epochs of Hipparcos and Gaia. These include four binary star systems (HD 68017 AB, 61 Cygni AB, HD 24496 AB, and HD 4614 AB) and three planetary systems (HD 217107, HD 190360, and HD 154345). Our analyses incorporate a long baseline of RVs that includes over 1100 previously unpublished measurements from NEID and MINERVA, extending the overall RV baseline for each system by $\approx$2.5 years, as well as relative astrometry for the stellar binary systems where the positions of both stars are well-measured. In each case, the combination of astrometry and RVs constrains the three-dimensional acceleration of the host star and enables precise dynamical masses. We publish true masses for three planets whose measurements were previously entangled with their inclinations, four stellar masses with $\lesssim$1% relative precision, and improved orbital solutions for all seven systems, including the first for HD 24496 AB. These solutions not only agree with previous estimates, but also improve their fidelity. We also explore each system for evidence of periodic signals in the residuals around our best-fit models, and discuss the potential that the three planetary systems have for being directly imaged. With dynamical mass estimates and reliable orbit ephemerides, these seven star systems represent promising benchmarks for future stellar and planetary characterization efforts, and are amenable for further improvement with the upcoming release of Gaia epoch astrometry.

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Three-dimensional Orbit and Dynamical Masses of GJ 105 AC

The precision of stellar models is higher than the precision at which we are able to measure the masses of most stars, with the notable exception of binaries where we can determine dynamical masses of the component stars. In addition to well-measured stellar properties, the ideal benchmark star is far enough from its companion that its properties are indistinguishable from an otherwise identical single star. Currently, there are a handful of stars with precise ($\pm$3 %), model-independent mass measurements that are "effectively single" and for which we can obtain clean spectra (i.e. spectra that are not blended with a close companion). In this paper, we introduce GJ 105 AC as the newest members of this exclusive population. We present an updated orbital analysis for the long-period K3+M7 binary GJ 105 AC. We jointly analyze radial velocity (RV) and relative astrometry data, including new RVs from the Miniature Exoplanet Radial Velocity Array (MINERVA) that capture the full periapsis passage and the RV minimum of the $76.0 \pm 1.3$ yr orbit for the first time. We derive precise dynamical masses of $M_1 = 0.78 \pm 0.02\, \mathrm{M}_\odot$ and $M_2 = 0.098 \pm 0.002\, \mathrm{M}_\odot$. We find that of all stars with similarly precise masses (~2%), GJ 105 AC stands out as having the widest on-sky separation after $\alpha$ Centauri AB, making it one of the most easily accessible to spectroscopy, as well as the the second-widest true separation, ensuring that its members are truly "effectively single" in terms of their evolution.

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OrCAS: Origins, Compositions, and Atmospheres of Sub-neptunes. I. Survey Definition

Sub-Neptunes - volatile-rich exoplanets smaller than Neptune - are intrinsically the most common type of planet known. However, the formation and nature of these objects, as well as the distinctions between sub-classes (if any), remain unclear. Two powerful tools to tease out the secrets of these worlds are measurements of (i) atmospheric composition and structure revealed by transit and/or eclipse spectroscopy, and (ii) mass, radius, and density revealed by transit photometry and Doppler spectroscopy. Here we present OrCAS, a survey to better elucidate the origins, compositions, and atmospheres of sub-Neptunes. This radial velocity survey uses a repeatable, quantifiable metric to select targets suitable for subsequent transmission spectroscopy and address key science themes about the atmospheric & internal compositions and architectures of these systems. Our survey targets 26 systems with transiting sub-Neptune planet candidates, with the overarching goal of increasing the sample of such planets suitable for subsequent atmospheric characterization. This paper lays out our survey's science goals, defines our target prioritization metric, and performs light-curve fits and statistical validation using existing TESS photometry and ground-based follow-up observations. Our survey serves to continue expanding the sample of small exoplanets with well-measured properties orbiting nearby bright stars, ensuring fruitful studies of these systems for many years to come.

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HD 21520 b: a warm sub-Neptune transiting a bright G dwarf

We report the discovery and validation of HD 21520 b, a transiting planet found with TESS and orbiting a bright G dwarf (V=9.2, $T_{eff} = 5871 \pm 62$ K, $R_{\star} = 1.04\pm 0.02\, R_{\odot}$). HD 21520 b was originally alerted as a system (TOI-4320) consisting of two planet candidates with periods of 703.6 and 46.4 days. However, our analysis supports instead a single-planet system with an orbital period of $25.1292\pm0.0001$ days and radius of $2.70 \pm 0.09\, R_{\oplus}$. Three full transits in sectors 4, 30 and 31 match this period and have transit depths and durations in agreement with each other, as does a partial transit in sector 3. We also observe transits using CHEOPS and LCOGT. SOAR and Gemini high-resolution imaging do not indicate the presence of any nearby companions, and MINERVA-Australis and CORALIE radial velocities rule out an on-target spectroscopic binary. Additionally, we use ESPRESSO radial velocities to obtain a tentative mass measurement of $7.9^{+3.2}_{-3.0}\, M_{\oplus}$, with a 3-$\sigma$ upper limit of 17.7 $M_{\oplus}$. Due to the bright nature of its host and likely significant gas envelope of the planet, HD 21520 b is a promising candidate for further mass measurements and for atmospheric characterization.

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Trials and Tribulations in the Reanalysis of KELT-24 b: a Case Study for the Importance of Stellar Modeling

We present a new analysis of the KELT-24 system, comprising a well-aligned hot Jupiter, KELT-24~b, and a bright ($V=8.3$), nearby ($d=96.9~\mathrm{pc}$) F-type host star. KELT-24~b was independently discovered by two groups in 2019, with each reporting best-fit stellar parameters that were notably inconsistent. Here, we present three independent analyses of the KELT-24 system, each incorporating a broad range of photometric and spectroscopic data, including eight sectors of TESS photometry and more than 200 new radial velocities (RVs) from MINERVA. Two of these analyses use KELT-24's observed spectral energy distribution (SED) through a direct comparison to stellar evolutionary models, while our third analysis assumes an unknown additional body contributing to the observed broadband photometry and excludes the SED. Ultimately, we find that the models that include the SED are a poor fit to the available data, so we adopt the system parameters derived without it. We also highlight a single transit-like event observed by TESS, deemed likely to be an eclipsing binary bound to KELT-24, that will require follow-up observations to confirm. We discuss the potential of these additional bodies in the KELT-24 system as a possible explanation for the discrepancies between the results of the different modeling approaches, and explore the system for longer-period planets that may be weakly evident in the RV observations. The comprehensive investigations that we present not only increase the fidelity of our understanding of the KELT-24 system, but also serve as a blueprint for future stellar modeling in global analyses of exoplanet systems.

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The metallicity and carbon-to-oxygen ratio of the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-76b from Gemini-S/IGRINS

Measurements of the carbon-to-oxygen (C/O) ratios of exoplanet atmospheres can reveal details about their formation and evolution. Recently, high-resolution cross-correlation analysis has emerged as a method of precisely constraining the C/O ratios of hot Jupiter atmospheres. We present two transits of the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-76b observed between 1.4-2.4 $\mu$m with Gemini-S/IGRINS. We detected the presence of H$_{2}$O, CO, and OH at signal-to-noise ratios of 6.93, 6.47, and 3.90, respectively. We performed two retrievals on this data set. A free retrieval for abundances of these three species retrieved a volatile metallicity of $\left[\frac{\mathrm{C}+\mathrm{O}} {\mathrm{H}}\right]=-0.70^{+1.27}_{-0.93}$, consistent with the stellar value, and a super-solar carbon-to-oxygen ratio of C/O$=0.80^{+0.07}_{-0.11}$. We also ran a chemically self-consistent grid retrieval, which agreed with the free retrieval within $1\sigma$ but favored a slightly more sub-stellar metallicity and solar C/O ratio ($\left[\frac{\mathrm{C}+\mathrm{O}} {\mathrm{H}}\right]=-0.74^{+0.23}_{-0.17}$ and C/O$=0.59^{+0.13}_{-0.14}$). A variety of formation pathways may explain the composition of WASP-76b. Additionally, we found systemic ($V_{sys}$) and Keplerian ($K_{p}$) velocity offsets which were broadly consistent with expectations from 3D general circulation models of WASP-76b, with the exception of a redshifted $V_{sys}$ for H$_{2}$O. Future observations to measure the phase-dependent velocity offsets and limb differences at high resolution on WASP-76b will be necessary to understand the H$_{2}$O velocity shift. Finally, we find that the population of exoplanets with precisely constrained C/O ratios generally trends toward super-solar C/O ratios. More results from high-resolution observations or JWST will serve to further elucidate any population-level trends.

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Analytic relations assessing the impact of precursor knowledge and key mission parameters on direct imaging survey yield

The Habitable Worlds Observatory will attempt to image Earth-sized planets in Habitable Zone orbits around nearby Sun-like stars. In this work we explore approximate analytic yield calculations for a future flagship direct imaging mission for a survey sample of uniformly distributed set of identical Sun-like stars. We consider the dependence of this exoplanet detection yield on factors such as eta_Earth, telescope diameter, total on-sky time, orbital phase and separation, inner working angle, flux contrast, desired signal-to-noise ratio, spectral resolution, and other factors. We consider the impact on yield and survey efficiency in the absence of and with precursor knowledge of the Earth-size analog exoplanets. In particular, for precursor knowledge we assume the exoplanet orbital phase at the time of observation can be optimized so as to only image the Earth-size analog exoplanet when it is outside the inner working angle. We find that the yield of flagship direct imaging missions such as Habitable Worlds Observatory will be inner-working angle limited for the estimated exoplanet yields, and will not be impacted by precursor knowledge given our assumptions presented herein. However, we find that the survey efficiency will be enhanced by precursor knowledge. We benchmark our analytic approximations against detailed simulations for coronagraphs and starshades carried out for the HabEx and LUVOIR missions concept studies, and find consistent conclusions. Our analytic relations thus provide quick estimates and derivatives of the impact of key mission parameter choices on exo-Earth yield when considering design trades that can supplement existing computational simulations.

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