arXiv subjects

Peter Richmond

Publications and source records attributed to Peter Richmond.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2017

Decomposition of the Inequality of Income Distribution by Income Types - Application for Romania

This paper identifies the salient factors that characterize the inequality income distribution for Romania. Data analysis is rigorously carried out using sophisticated techniques borrowed from classical statistics (Theil). Decomposition of the inequalities measured by the Theil index is also performed. This study relies on an exhaustive (11.1 million records for 2014) data-set for total personal gross income of Romanian citizens.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2017

Exploration of the strength of family links

Ever since the studies of Louis-Adolphe Bertillon in the late 19th century it has been known that marital status and number of children markedly affect death and suicide rates. This led in 1898 Emile Durkheim to conjecture a connection between social isolation (especially at family level) and suicide. However, further progress was long hampered by the limited statistical data available from death certificates. Recently, it was shown by the present authors that disability data from census records can be used as a reliable substitute for mortality data. This opens a new route to investigations of family ties because census information goes much beyond the limited data reported on death certificates. It is shown that the disability rate of adults decreases when they have more family links. More precisely, the reduction of the parents' disability brought about by the presence of a child reveals that the strength of ties between parents and child is highest in the first year after birth and then weakens steadily as the child ages. It will also be seen that the strength of the bond between husband and wife is highest when they are of same age and decreases fairly steadily when the age gap increases.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Impact of marital status on health

The Farr-Bertillon law states that the mortality rate of single and widowed persons is about three times the rate of married people of same age. This excess mortality can be measured with good accuracy for all ages except for young widowers. The reason is that, at least nowadays, very few people become widowed under the age of 30. Here we show that disability data from census records can also be used as a reliable substitute for mortality rates. In fact excess-disability and excess-mortality go hand in hand. Moreover, as there are about ten times more cases of disability than deaths, the disability variable is able to offer more accurate measurements in all cases where the number of deaths is small. This allows a more accurate investigation of the young widower effect; it confirms that, as already suspected from death rate data, there is a huge spike between the ages of 20 and 30. By using disability rates we can also study additional features not accessible using death rate data. For example we can examine the health impact of a change in living place. The observed temporary inflated disability rate confirms what could be expected by invoking the "Transient Shock" conjecture formulated by the authors in a previous paper.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Phenomenology of infant death rates. Identification of the peaks of viral and bacterial diseases

After birth setting up an effective immune system is a major challenge for all living organisms. In this paper we show that this process can be explored by using the age-specific infant death rate as a kind of sensor. This is made possible because, as shown by the authors in Berrut et al. (2016), between birth and a critical age t_c, for all mammals the death rate decreases with age as an hyperbolic function. For humans t_c is equal to 10 years. At some ages the hyperbolic fall displays spikes which, it is assumed, correspond to specific events in the organism's response to exogenous factors. One of these spikes occurs 10 days after birth and there is another at the age of about 300 days. It is shown that the first spike is related to viral infections whereas the second is related to bacterial diseases. By going back to former time periods during which infant mortality was much higher than currently, it is possible to get a magnified view of these peaks which in turn may give us useful information about how an organism adapts to new conditions. Apart from pathogens, the same methodology can be used to study the response to changes in other external conditions, e.g. supply of food, temperature or oxygen level.

physics.med-ph↗

arXiv2016

Is cancer a disease that can be cured? An answer based on a new classification of diseases

Is cancer a disease that can be cured or a degenerative disease which comes predominantly with old age? We give an answer based on a two-dimensional representation of diseases. These two dimensions are defined as follows. In mortality curves there is an age, namely a_c = 10 years, which plays a crucial role in the sense that the mortality rate decreases in the interval I1=(a a_c). The respective trends in I1 and I2 are the two parameters used in our classification of diseases. Within the framework of reliability analysis, I1 and I2 would be referred to as the "burn-in" and "wear-out" phases. This leads to define three broad groups of diseases. (AS1) Asymmetry with prevalence of I1. (AS2) Asymmetry with prevalence of I2. (S) Symmetry, with I1 and I2 both playing roles of comparable importance. Not surprisingly, among AS1-cases one finds all diseases due to congenital malformations. In the AS2-class one finds degenerative diseases, e.g. Alzheimer's disease. Among S-cases one finds most diseases due to external pathogens or to wear-out processes. Cancer is one of those mixed cases and it is closer to (AS2) than to (AS1). This representation also explains what we call an OVERKILL EFFECT in old age. It tells us that even an effective cancer therapy would have no influence whatsoever on the extent of human life unless ALL other diseases are cured simultaneously. We conclude that whilst one might develop a cure for many of the known diseases of old age, new diseases will arise and the quest for the ultimate cure will be never ending. Death before the age of 120 seems firmly written in our genetic code and the best we shall be able to do is to help people cope with the inevitability of death as and when it arises.

physics.med-ph↗

arXiv2016

Property bubble in Hong Kong: A predicted decade-long slump (2016-2025)

Between 2003 and 2015 the prices of apartments in Hong Kong (adjusted for inflation) increased by a factor of 3.8. This is much higher than in the United States prior to the so-called subprime crisis of 2007. The analysis of this speculative episode confirms the mechanism and regularities already highlighted by the present authors in similar episodes in other countries. Based on these regularities, it is possible to predict the price trajectory over the time interval 2016-2025. It suggests that, unless appropriate relief is provided by the mainland, Hong Kong will experience a decade-long slump. Possible implications for its relations with Beijing are discussed at the end of the paper.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2016

Deciphering infant mortality. Part 1: empirical evidence

This paper is not (or at least not only) about human infant mortality. In line with reliability theory, "infant" will refer here to the time interval following birth during which the mortality (or failure) rate decreases. This definition provides a systems science perspective in which birth constitutes a sudden transition which falls within the field of application of the "Transient Shock" (TS) conjecture put forward in Richmond et al. (2016c). This conjecture provides predictions about the timing and shape of the death rate peak. (i) It says that there will be a death rate spike whenever external conditions change abruptly and drastically. (ii) It predicts that after a steep rising there will be a much longer hyperbolic relaxation process. These predictions can be tested by considering living organisms for which birth is a multi-step process. Thus, for fish there are three states: egg, yolk-sac phase, young adult. The TS conjecture predicts a mortality spike at the end of the yolk-sac phase, and this timing is indeed confirmed by observation. Secondly, the hyperbolic nature of the relaxation process can be tested using high accuracy Swiss statistics which give postnatal death rates from one hour after birth up to the age of 10 years. It turns out that since the 19th century despite a great overall reduction in infant mortality, the shape of the age-specific death rate has remained basically unchanged. This hyperbolic pattern is not specific to humans. It can also be found in small primates as recorded in the archives of zoological gardens. Our ultimate objective is to set up a chain of cases which starts from simple systems and then moves up step by step to more complex organisms. The cases discussed here can be seen as initial landmarks.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2015

Predictive implications of Gompertz's law

Gompertz's law tells us that for humans above the age of 35 the death rate increases exponentially with a doubling time of about 10 years. Here, we show that the same law continues to hold even for ages over 100. Beyond 106 there is so far no statistical evidence available because the number of survivors is too small even in the largest nations. However assuming that Gompertz's law continues to hold beyond 106, we conclude that the mortality rate becomes equal to 1 at age 120 (meaning that there are 1,000 deaths in a population of one thousand). In other words, the upper bound of human life is near 120. The existence of this fixed-point has interesting implications. It allows us to predict the form of the relationship between death rates at age 35 and the doubling time of Gompertz's law. In order to test this prediction, we first carry out a transversal analysis for a sample of countries comprising both industrialized and developing nations. As further confirmation, we also develop a longitudinal analysis using historical data over a time period of almost two centuries. Another prediction arising from this fixed-point model, is that, above a given population threshold, the lifespan of the oldest person is independent of the size of her national community. This prediction is supported by available empirical evidence.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Effect of marital status on death rates. Part 1: High accuracy exploration of the Farr-Bertillon effect

The Farr-Bertillon law says that for all age-groups the death rate of married people is lower than the death rate of people who are not married (i.e. single, widowed or divorced). Although this law has been known for over 150 years, it has never been established with great accuracy. This even let some authors argue that it was a statistical artefact. It is true that the data must be selected and analyzed with great care, especially for age groups of small size such as widowers under 25. The observations reported in this paper were selected and designed in the same way as experiments in physics, that is to say with the objective of minimizing the error bars for all age-groups. It will be seen that data appropriate for mid-age groups may be unsuitable for young age groups and vice versa. The investigation led to the following results. (1) The FB effect is basically the same for men and women, except that on average it is about 20\% stronger for men. (2) There is a marked difference between single or divorced persons on the one hand, for whom the effect is largest around the age of 45, and widowed persons on the other hand, for whom the effect is largest around the age of 25. (3) When different causes of death are distinguished, the effect is largest for suicide and smallest for cancer. (4) For young widowers the death rates are up to 10 times higher than for married persons of same age. This extreme form of the FB effect will be referred to as the "young widower effect." A possible connection between the FB effect and Martin Raff's "Stay alive" effect for cells in an organism is discussed in the last section.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Effect of marital status on death rates. Part 2: Transient mortality spikes

We examine what happens in a population when it experiences an abrupt change in surrounding conditions. Several cases of such "abrupt transitions" for both physical and living social systems are analyzed from which it can be seen that all share a common pattern. First, a steep rising death rate followed by a much slower relaxation process during which the death rate decreases as a power law (with an exponent close to 0.7). This leads us to propose a general principle which can be summarized as follows: "ANY abrupt change in living conditions generates a mortality spike which acts as a kind of selection process." This we term the Transient Shock conjecture. It provides a qualitative model which leads to testable predictions. For example, marriage certainly brings about a major change in environmental and social conditions and according to our conjecture one would expect a mortality spike in the months following marriage. At first sight this may seem an unlikely proposition but we demonstrate (by three different methods) that even here the existence of mortality spikes is supported by solid empirical evidence.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

The detection of cheating in multiple choice examinations

Cheating in examinations is acknowledged by an increasing number of organizations to be widespread. We examine two different approaches to assess their effectiveness at detecting anomalous results, suggestive of collusion, using data taken from a number of multiple-choice examinations organized by the UK Radio Communication Foundation. Analysis of student pair overlaps of correct answers is shown to give results consistent with more orthodox statistical correlations for which confidence limits as opposed to the less familiar "Bonferroni method" can be used. A simulation approach is also developed which confirms the interpretation of the empirical approach.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

A simple model of local prices and associated risk evaluation

A simple spin system is constructed to simulate dynamics of asset prices and studied numerically. The outcome for the distribution of prices is shown to depend both on the dimension of the system and the introduction of price into the link measure. For dimensions below 2, the associated risk is high and the price distribution is bimodal. For higher dimensions, the price distribution is Gaussian and the associated risk is much lower. It is suggested that the results are relevant to rare assets or situations where few players are involved in the deal making process.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2007

Study of the Correlations Between Stocks of Different Markets

We study correlations of a set of stocks selected from both the New York and London stock exchanges. Results are displayed using both Random Matrix Theory approach and the graphical visualisation of the Minimal Spanning Tree. For the set of stocks we study, cross correlations between markets do not mix the markets significantly. Geographical differences seem to dominate the output of a Random Matrix analysis. Only at the level of the third highest eigenvector do we see an effect of New York on the London data with the emergence of some common sectors with the larger eigenvectors in London and New York. The Minimal Spanning Trees show the broad separation of the markets as reflected in the second eigenvector of the Random Matrix analysis. However more detail is difficult to discern from the Minimal Spanning Trees analysis.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2007

Double power laws in income and wealth distributions

Close examination of wealth distributions reveal the existence of two distinct power law regimes. The Pareto exponents of the super-rich, identified for example in rich lists such as provided by Forbes are smaller than the Pareto exponents obtained for top earners in income data sets. Our extension of the Slanina model of wealth is able to reproduce these double power law features.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2007

Risk evaluation with enhaced covariance matrix

We propose a route for the evaluation of risk based on a transformation of the covariance matrix. The approach uses a `potential' or `objective' function. This allows us to rescale data from different assets (or sources) such that each data set then has similar statistical properties in terms of their probability distributions. The method is tested using historical data from both the New York and Warsaw Stock Exchanges.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2006

Option pricing with log-stable Lévy processes

We model the logarithm of the price (log-price) of a financial asset as a random variable obtained by projecting an operator stable random vector with a scaling index matrix $\underline{\underline{E}}$ onto a non-random vector. The scaling index $\underline{\underline{E}}$ models prices of the individual financial assets (stocks, mutual funds, etc.). We find the functional form of the characteristic function of real powers of the price returns and we compute the expectation value of these real powers and we speculate on the utility of these results for statistical inference. Finally we consider a portfolio composed of an asset and an option on that asset. We derive the characteristic function of the deviation of the portfolio, \mbox{${\mathfrak D}_t^{({\mathfrak t})}$}, defined as a temporal change of the portfolio diminished by the the compound interest earned. We derive pseudo-differential equations for the option as a function of the log-stock-price and time and we find exact closed-form solutions to that equation. These results were not known before. Finally we discuss how our solutions correspond to other approximate results known from literature,in particular to the well known Black & Scholes equation.

math.PR↗

arXiv2006

The Evolution of Interdependence in World Equity Markets - Evidence from Minimum Spanning Trees

The minimum spanning tree is used to study the process of market integration for a large group of national stock market indices. We show how the asset tree evolves over time and describe the dynamics of its normalized length, mean occupation layer, and single- and multiple-step linkage survival rates. Over the period studied, 1997-2006, the tree shows a tendency to become more compact. This implies that global equity markets are increasingly interrelated. The consequence for global investors is a potential reduction of the benefits of international portfolio diversification.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2006

A Roof over your Head; House Price Peaks in the UK and Ireland

We analyse, following recent work of Roehner, changes in house prices for both the UK and Ireland. We conclude that prices in London have reached a tipping point and prices relative to inflation are set to fall over the next few years. If inflation does not rise then a hard landing seems likely. House prices in the Irish Republic are shown to have broken away from the moderate rise still to be found in Northern Ireland and Dublin has emerged as another global 'hot spot'. An evolution of Dublin house prices similar to that in London can be anticipated. Keywords: Econophysics, house prices, real estate, prediction PACS: 89.65.Gh, 89.90.+n

physics.soc-ph↗