arXiv subjects

Peter Sheridan Dodds

Publications and source records attributed to Peter Sheridan Dodds.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Ratioing the President: An exploration of public engagement with Obama and Trump on Twitter

The past decade has witnessed a marked increase in the use of social media by politicians, most notably exemplified by the 45th President of the United States (POTUS), Donald Trump. On Twitter, POTUS messages consistently attract high levels of engagement as measured by likes, retweets, and replies. Here, we quantify the balance of these activities, also known as "ratios", and study their dynamics as a proxy for collective political engagement in response to presidential communications. We find that raw activity counts increase during the period leading up to the 2016 election, accompanied by a regime change in the ratio of retweets-to-replies connected to the transition between campaigning and governing. For the Trump account, we find words related to fake news and the Mueller inquiry are more common in tweets with a high number of replies relative to retweets. Finally, we find that Barack Obama consistently received a higher retweet-to-reply ratio than Donald Trump. These results suggest Trump's Twitter posts are more often controversial and subject to enduring engagement as a given news cycle unfolds.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Characterizing the Google Books corpus: Strong limits to inferences of socio-cultural and linguistic evolution

It is tempting to treat frequency trends from the Google Books data sets as indicators of the "true" popularity of various words and phrases. Doing so allows us to draw quantitatively strong conclusions about the evolution of cultural perception of a given topic, such as time or gender. However, the Google Books corpus suffers from a number of limitations which make it an obscure mask of cultural popularity. A primary issue is that the corpus is in effect a library, containing one of each book. A single, prolific author is thereby able to noticeably insert new phrases into the Google Books lexicon, whether the author is widely read or not. With this understood, the Google Books corpus remains an important data set to be considered more lexicon-like than text-like. Here, we show that a distinct problematic feature arises from the inclusion of scientific texts, which have become an increasingly substantive portion of the corpus throughout the 1900s. The result is a surge of phrases typical to academic articles but less common in general, such as references to time in the form of citations. We highlight these dynamics by examining and comparing major contributions to the statistical divergence of English data sets between decades in the period 1800--2000. We find that only the English Fiction data set from the second version of the corpus is not heavily affected by professional texts, in clear contrast to the first version of the fiction data set and both unfiltered English data sets. Our findings emphasize the need to fully characterize the dynamics of the Google Books corpus before using these data sets to draw broad conclusions about cultural and linguistic evolution.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Divergent modes of online collective attention to the COVID-19 pandemic are associated with future caseload variance

Using a random 10% sample of tweets authored from 2019-09-01 through 2020-04-30, we analyze the dynamic behavior of words (1-grams) used on Twitter to describe the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Across 24 languages, we find two distinct dynamic regimes: One characterizing the rise and subsequent collapse in collective attention to the initial Coronavirus outbreak in late January, and a second that represents March COVID-19-related discourse. Aggregating countries by dominant language use, we find that volatility in the first dynamic regime is associated with future volatility in new cases of COVID-19 roughly three weeks (average 22.49 $\pm$ 3.26 days) later. Our results suggest that surveillance of change in usage of epidemiology-related words on social media may be useful in forecasting later change in disease case numbers, but we emphasize that our current findings are not causal or necessarily predictive.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

The sleep loss insult of Spring Daylight Savings in the US is absorbed by Twitter users within 48 hours

Sleep loss has been linked to heart disease, diabetes, cancer, and an increase in accidents, all of which are among the leading causes of death in the United States. Population-scale sleep studies have the potential to advance public health by helping to identify at-risk populations, changes in collective sleep patterns, and to inform policy change. Prior research suggests other kinds of health indicators such as depression and obesity can be estimated using social media activity. However, the inability to effectively measure collective sleep with publicly available data has limited large-scale academic studies. Here, we investigate the passive estimation of sleep loss through a proxy analysis of Twitter activity profiles. We use "Spring Forward" events, which occur at the beginning of Daylight Savings Time in the United States, as a natural experimental condition to estimate spatial differences in sleep loss across the United States. On average, peak Twitter activity occurs roughly 45 minutes later on the Sunday following Spring Forward. By Monday morning however, activity curves are realigned with the week before, suggesting that at least on Twitter, the lost hour of early Sunday morning has been quickly absorbed.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2020

Hurricanes and hashtags: Characterizing online collective attention for natural disasters

We study collective attention paid towards hurricanes through the lens of $n$-grams on Twitter, a social media platform with global reach. Using hurricane name mentions as a proxy for awareness, we find that the exogenous temporal dynamics are remarkably similar across storms, but that overall collective attention varies widely even among storms causing comparable deaths and damage. We construct `hurricane attention maps' and observe that hurricanes causing deaths on (or economic damage to) the continental United States generate substantially more attention in English language tweets than those that do not. We find that a hurricane's Saffir-Simpson wind scale category assignment is strongly associated with the amount of attention it receives. Higher category storms receive higher proportional increases of attention per proportional increases in number of deaths or dollars of damage, than lower category storms. The most damaging and deadly storms of the 2010s, Hurricanes Harvey and Maria, generated the most attention and were remembered the longest, respectively. On average, a category 5 storm receives 4.6 times more attention than a category 1 storm causing the same number of deaths and economic damage.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Noncooperative dynamics in election interference

Foreign power interference in domestic elections is an existential threat to societies. Manifested through myriad methods from war to words, such interference is a timely example of strategic interaction between economic and political agents. We model this interaction between rational game players as a continuous-time differential game, constructing an analytical model of this competition with a variety of payoff structures. All-or-nothing attitudes by only one player regarding the outcome of the game lead to an arms race in which both countries spend increasing amounts on interference and counter-interference operations. We then confront our model with data pertaining to the Russian interference in the 2016 United States presidential election contest. We introduce and estimate a Bayesian structural time series model of election polls and social media posts by Russian Twitter troll accounts. Our analytical model, while purposefully abstract and simple, adequately captures many temporal characteristics of the election and social media activity. We close with a discussion of our model's shortcomings and suggestions for future research.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

The shocklet transform: A decomposition method for the identification of local, mechanism-driven dynamics in sociotechnical time series

We introduce a qualitative, shape-based, timescale-independent time-domain transform used to extract local dynamics from sociotechnical time series---termed the Discrete Shocklet Transform (DST)---and an associated similarity search routine, the Shocklet Transform And Ranking (STAR) algorithm, that indicates time windows during which panels of time series display qualitatively-similar anomalous behavior. After distinguishing our algorithms from other methods used in anomaly detection and time series similarity search, such as the matrix profile, seasonal-hybrid ESD, and discrete wavelet transform-based procedures, we demonstrate the DST's ability to identify mechanism-driven dynamics at a wide range of timescales and its relative insensitivity to functional parameterization. As an application, we analyze a sociotechnical data source (usage frequencies for a subset of words on Twitter) and highlight our algorithms' utility by using them to extract both a typology of mechanistic local dynamics and a data-driven narrative of socially-important events as perceived by English-language Twitter.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Visitors to urban greenspace have higher sentiment and lower negativity on Twitter

With more people living in cities, we are witnessing a decline in exposure to nature. A growing body of research has demonstrated an association between nature contact and improved mood. Here, we used Twitter and the Hedonometer, a world analysis tool, to investigate how sentiment, or the estimated happiness of the words people write, varied before, during, and after visits to San Francisco's urban park system. We found that sentiment was substantially higher during park visits and remained elevated for several hours following the visit. Leveraging differences in vegetative cover across park types, we explored how different types of outdoor public spaces may contribute to subjective well-being. Tweets during visits to Regional Parks, which are greener and have greater vegetative cover, exhibited larger increases in sentiment than tweets during visits to Civic Plazas and Squares. Finally, we analyzed word frequencies to explore several mechanisms theorized to link nature exposure with mental and cognitive benefits. Negation words such as 'no', 'not', and 'don't' decreased in frequency during visits to urban parks. These results can be used by urban planners and public health officials to better target nature contact recommendations for growing urban populations.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

Exploring Perceptions of Veganism

This project examined perceptions of the vegan lifestyle using surveys and social media to explore barriers to choosing veganism. A survey of 510 individuals indicated that non-vegans did not believe veganism was as healthy or difficult as vegans. In a second analysis, Instagram posts using #vegan suggest content is aimed primarily at the female vegan community. Finally, sentiment analysis of roughly 5 million Twitter posts mentioning 'vegan' found veganism to be portrayed in a more positive light compared to other topics. Results suggest non-vegans' lack of interest in veganism is driven by non-belief in the health benefits of the diet.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2019

Hahahahaha, Duuuuude, Yeeessss!: A two-parameter characterization of stretchable words and the dynamics of mistypings and misspellings

Stretched words like `heellllp' or `heyyyyy' are a regular feature of spoken language, often used to emphasize or exaggerate the underlying meaning of the root word. While stretched words are rarely found in formal written language and dictionaries, they are prevalent within social media. In this paper, we examine the frequency distributions of `stretchable words' found in roughly 100 billion tweets authored over an 8 year period. We introduce two central parameters, `balance' and `stretch', that capture their main characteristics, and explore their dynamics by creating visual tools we call `balance plots' and `spelling trees'. We discuss how the tools and methods we develop here could be used to study the statistical patterns of mistypings and misspellings, along with the potential applications in augmenting dictionaries, improving language processing, and in any area where sequence construction matters, such as genetics.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2019

English verb regularization in books and tweets

The English language has evolved dramatically throughout its lifespan, to the extent that a modern speaker of Old English would be incomprehensible without translation. One concrete indicator of this process is the movement from irregular to regular (-ed) forms for the past tense of verbs. In this study we quantify the extent of verb regularization using two vastly disparate datasets: (1) Six years of published books scanned by Google (2003--2008), and (2) A decade of social media messages posted to Twitter (2008--2017). We find that the extent of verb regularization is greater on Twitter, taken as a whole, than in English Fiction books. Regularization is also greater for tweets geotagged in the United States relative to American English books, but the opposite is true for tweets geotagged in the United Kingdom relative to British English books. We also find interesting regional variations in regularization across counties in the United States. However, once differences in population are accounted for, we do not identify strong correlations with socio-demographic variables such as education or income.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2018

Social media usage patterns during natural hazards

Natural hazards are becoming increasingly expensive as climate change and development are exposing communities to greater risks. Preparation and recovery are critical for climate change resilience, and social media are being used more and more to communicate before, during, and after disasters. While there is a growing body of research aimed at understanding how people use social media surrounding disaster events, most existing work has focused on a single disaster case study. In the present study, we analyze five of the costliest disasters in the last decade in the United States (Hurricanes Irene and Sandy, two sets of tornado outbreaks, and flooding in Louisiana) through the lens of Twitter. In particular, we explore the frequency of both generic and specific food-security related terms, and quantify the relationship between network size and Twitter activity during disasters. We find differences in tweet volume for keywords depending on disaster type, with people using Twitter more frequently in preparation for Hurricanes, and for real-time or recovery information for tornado and flooding events. Further, we find that people share a host of general disaster and specific preparation and recovery terms during these events. Finally, we find that among all account types, individuals with "average" sized networks are most likely to share information during these disasters, and in most cases, do so more frequently than normal. This suggests that around disasters, an ideal form of social contagion is being engaged in which average people rather than outsized influentials are key to communication. These results provide important context for the type of disaster information and target audiences that may be most useful for disaster communication during varying extreme events.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2018

A Sentiment Analysis of Breast Cancer Treatment Experiences and Healthcare Perceptions Across Twitter

Background: Social media has the capacity to afford the healthcare industry with valuable feedback from patients who reveal and express their medical decision-making process, as well as self-reported quality of life indicators both during and post treatment. In prior work, [Crannell et. al.], we have studied an active cancer patient population on Twitter and compiled a set of tweets describing their experience with this disease. We refer to these online public testimonies as "Invisible Patient Reported Outcomes" (iPROs), because they carry relevant indicators, yet are difficult to capture by conventional means of self-report. Methods: Our present study aims to identify tweets related to the patient experience as an additional informative tool for monitoring public health. Using Twitter's public streaming API, we compiled over 5.3 million "breast cancer" related tweets spanning September 2016 until mid December 2017. We combined supervised machine learning methods with natural language processing to sift tweets relevant to breast cancer patient experiences. We analyzed a sample of 845 breast cancer patient and survivor accounts, responsible for over 48,000 posts. We investigated tweet content with a hedonometric sentiment analysis to quantitatively extract emotionally charged topics. Results: We found that positive experiences were shared regarding patient treatment, raising support, and spreading awareness. Further discussions related to healthcare were prevalent and largely negative focusing on fear of political legislation that could result in loss of coverage. Conclusions: Social media can provide a positive outlet for patients to discuss their needs and concerns regarding their healthcare coverage and treatment needs. Capturing iPROs from online communication can help inform healthcare professionals and lead to more connected and personalized treatment regimens.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2018

Continuum rich-get-richer processes: Mean field analysis with an application to firm size

Classical rich-get-richer models have found much success in being able to broadly reproduce the statistics and dynamics of diverse real complex systems. These rich-get-richer models are based on classical urn models and unfold step-by-step in discrete time. Here, we consider a natural variation acting on a temporal continuum in the form of a partial differential equation (PDE). We first show that the continuum version of Herbert Simon's canonical preferential attachment model exhibits an identical size distribution. In relaxing Simon's assumption of a linear growth mechanism, we consider the case of an arbitrary growth kernel and find the general solution to the resultant PDE. We then extend the PDE to multiple spatial dimensions, again determining the general solution. Finally, we apply the model to size and wealth distributions of firms. We obtain power law scaling for both to be concordant with simulations as well as observational data.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

A simple person's approach to understanding the contagion condition for spreading processes on generalized random networks

We present derivations of the contagion condition for a range of spreading mechanisms on families of generalized random networks and bipartite random networks. We show how the contagion condition can be broken into three elements, two structural in nature, and the third a meshing of the contagion process and the network. The contagion conditions we obtain reflect the spreading dynamics in a clear, interpretable way. For threshold contagion, we discuss results for all-to-all and random network versions of the model, and draw connections between them.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Slightly generalized Generalized Contagion: Unifying simple models of biological and social spreading

We motivate and explore the basic features of generalized contagion, a model mechanism that unifies fundamental models of biological and social contagion. Generalized contagion builds on the elementary observation that spreading and contagion of all kinds involve some form of system memory. We discuss the three main classes of systems that generalized contagion affords, resembling: simple biological contagion; critical mass contagion of social phenomena; and an intermediate, and explosive, vanishing critical mass contagion. We also present a simple explanation of the global spreading condition in the context of a small seed of infected individuals.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

A generalized model of social and biological contagion

We present a model of contagion that unifies and generalizes existing models of the spread of social influences and micro-organismal infections. Our model incorporates individual memory of exposure to a contagious entity (e.g., a rumor or disease), variable magnitudes of exposure (dose sizes), and heterogeneity in the susceptibility of individuals. Through analysis and simulation, we examine in detail the case where individuals may recover from an infection and then immediately become susceptible again (analogous to the so-called SIS model). We identify three basic classes of contagion models which we call \textit{epidemic threshold}, \textit{vanishing critical mass}, and \textit{critical mass} classes, where each class of models corresponds to different strategies for prevention or facilitation. We find that the conditions for a particular contagion model to belong to one of the these three classes depend only on memory length and the probabilities of being infected by one and two exposures respectively. These parameters are in principle measurable for real contagious influences or entities, thus yielding empirical implications for our model. We also study the case where individuals attain permanent immunity once recovered, finding that epidemics inevitably die out but may be surprisingly persistent when individuals possess memory.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Divergent discourse between protests and counter-protests: #BlackLivesMatter and #AllLivesMatter

Since the shooting of Black teenager Michael Brown by White police officer Darren Wilson in Ferguson, Missouri, the protest hashtag #BlackLivesMatter has amplified critiques of extrajudicial killings of Black Americans. In response to #BlackLivesMatter, other Twitter users have adopted #AllLivesMatter, a counter-protest hashtag whose content argues that equal attention should be given to all lives regardless of race. Through a multi-level analysis of over 860,000 tweets, we study how these protests and counter-protests diverge by quantifying aspects of their discourse. We find that #AllLivesMatter facilitates opposition between #BlackLivesMatter and hashtags such as #PoliceLivesMatter and #BlueLivesMatter in such a way that historically echoes the tension between Black protesters and law enforcement. In addition, we show that a significant portion of #AllLivesMatter use stems from hijacking by #BlackLivesMatter advocates. Beyond simply injecting #AllLivesMatter with #BlackLivesMatter content, these hijackers use the hashtag to directly confront the counter-protest notion of "All lives matter." Our findings suggest that Black Lives Matter movement was able to grow, exhibit diverse conversations, and avoid derailment on social media by making discussion of counter-protest opinions a central topic of #AllLivesMatter, rather than the movement itself.

cs.CL↗