arXiv subjects

Peter Yatsyshin

Publications and source records attributed to Peter Yatsyshin.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Multiscale Decomposition Reveals Predictable Interannual Variability and Climate Trends in Antarctic Sea Ice Loss

Antarctic sea ice has undergone unprecedented changes in recent years, raising questions about how this key geophysical system is responding to climate change. Decades of slow expansion were replaced by a precipitous decline in 2014-2017, a subsequent apparent recovery, and a renewed collapse from 2022 to the present. We diagnosed sea ice concentration (SIC) from satellite observations with a hierarchical decomposition method based on Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) that finds coherent spatiotemporal modes. We find that the 2014-2017 decline and apparent recovery are the result of interacting interannual modes and that a climate change signal emerges in 2012, which becomes unambiguous by 2022 when it dominates over interannual variability. These rapid changes underscore the need for seasonal-to-annual forecasts of SIC. However, existing forecasts are subject to limited prediction horizons combined with high computational costs. Our predictive DMD model (IceDMD) is regularised to prioritize the stationary spatiotemporal modes found by the decomposition. The predictive model can forecast SIC anomalies in 2023-2024 up to two years in advance, outperforming all existing approaches with the additional benefits of physical interpretability and extremely cheap computational cost. Finally, this framework for regularising predictive DMD models can be generalized to a range of multi-scale systems.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Learning Density Functionals to Bridge Particle and Continuum Scales

Predicting interfacial thermodynamics across molecular and continuum scales remains a central challenge in computational science. Classical density functional theory (cDFT) provides a first-principles route to connect microscopic interactions with macroscopic observables, but its predictive accuracy depends on approximate free-energy functionals that are difficult to generalize. Here we introduce a physics-informed learning framework that augments cDFT with neural corrections trained directly against molecular-dynamics data through adjoint optimization. Rather than replacing the theory with a black-box surrogate, we embed compact neural networks within the Helmholtz free-energy functional, learning local and nonlocal corrections that preserve thermodynamic consistency while capturing missing correlations. Applied to Lennard-Jones fluids, the resulting augmented excess free-energy functional quantitatively reproduces equilibrium density profiles, coexistence curves, and surface tensions across a broad temperature range, and accurately predicts contact angles and droplet shapes far beyond the training regime. This approach combines the interpretability of statistical mechanics with the adaptability of modern machine learning, establishing a general route to learned thermodynamic functionals that bridge molecular simulations and continuum-scale models.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2025

Technical overview and architecture of the FastNet Machine Learning weather prediction model, version 1.0

We present FastNet version 1.0, a data-driven medium range numerical weather prediction (NWP) model based on a Graph Neural Network architecture, developed jointly between the Alan Turing Institute and the Met Office. FastNet uses an encode-process-decode structure to produce deterministic global weather predictions out to 10 days. The architecture is independent of spatial resolution and we have trained models at 1$^{\circ}$ and 0.25$^{\circ}$ resolution, with a six hour time step. FastNet uses a multi-level mesh in the processor, which is able to capture both short-range and long-range patterns in the spatial structure of the atmosphere. The model is pre-trained on ECMWF's ERA5 reanalysis data and then fine-tuned on additional autoregressive rollout steps, which improves accuracy over longer time horizons. We evaluate the model performance at 1.5$^{\circ}$ resolution using 2022 as a hold-out year and compare with the Met Office Global Model, finding that FastNet surpasses the skill of the current Met Office Global Model NWP system using a variety of evaluation metrics on a number of atmospheric variables. Our results show that both our 1$^{\circ}$ and 0.25$^{\circ}$ FastNet models outperform the current Global Model and produce results with predictive skill approaching those of other data-driven models trained on 0.25$^{\circ}$ ERA5.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

FastNet: Improving the physical consistency of machine-learning weather prediction models through loss function design

Machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) models have demonstrated remarkable potential in delivering accurate forecasts at significantly reduced computational cost compared to traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. However, challenges remain in ensuring the physical consistency of MLWP outputs, particularly in deterministic settings. This study presents FastNet, a graph neural network (GNN)-based global prediction model, and investigates the impact of alternative loss function designs on improving the physical realism of its forecasts. We explore three key modifications to the standard mean squared error (MSE) loss: (1) a modified spherical harmonic (MSH) loss that penalises spectral amplitude errors to reduce blurring and enhance small-scale structure retention; (2) inclusion of horizontal gradient terms in the loss to suppress non-physical artefacts; and (3) an alternative wind representation that decouples speed and direction to better capture extreme wind events. Results show that while the MSH and gradient-based losses \textit{alone} may slightly degrade RMSE scores, when trained in combination the model exhibits very similar MSE performance to an MSE-trained model while at the same time significantly improving spectral fidelity and physical consistency. The alternative wind representation further improves wind speed accuracy and reduces directional bias. Collectively, these findings highlight the importance of loss function design as a mechanism for embedding domain knowledge into MLWP models and advancing their operational readiness.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Deep Optimal Sensor Placement for Black Box Stochastic Simulations

Selecting cost-effective optimal sensor configurations for subsequent inference of parameters in black-box stochastic systems faces significant computational barriers. We propose a novel and robust approach, modelling the joint distribution over input parameters and solution with a joint energy-based model, trained on simulation data. Unlike existing simulation-based inference approaches, which must be tied to a specific set of point evaluations, we learn a functional representation of parameters and solution. This is used as a resolution-independent plug-and-play surrogate for the joint distribution, which can be conditioned over any set of points, permitting an efficient approach to sensor placement. We demonstrate the validity of our framework on a variety of stochastic problems, showing that our method provides highly informative sensor locations at a lower computational cost compared to conventional approaches.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Physics-informed Bayesian inference of external potentials in classical density-functional theory

The swift progression of machine learning (ML) has not gone unnoticed in the realm of statistical mechanics. ML techniques have attracted attention by the classical density-functional theory (DFT) community, as they enable discovery of free-energy functionals to determine the equilibrium-density profile of a many-particle system. Within DFT, the external potential accounts for the interaction of the many-particle system with an external field, thus, affecting the density distribution. In this context, we introduce a statistical-learning framework to infer the external potential exerted on a many-particle system. We combine a Bayesian inference approach with the classical DFT apparatus to reconstruct the external potential, yielding a probabilistic description of the external potential functional form with inherent uncertainty quantification. Our framework is exemplified with a grand-canonical one-dimensional particle ensemble with excluded volume interactions in a confined geometry. The required training dataset is generated using a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation where the external potential is applied to the grand-canonical ensemble. The resulting particle coordinates from the MC simulation are fed into the learning framework to uncover the external potential. This eventually allows us to compute the equilibrium density profile of the system by using the tools of DFT. Our approach benchmarks the inferred density against the exact one calculated through the DFT formulation with the true external potential. The proposed Bayesian procedure accurately infers the external potential and the density profile. We also highlight the external-potential uncertainty quantification conditioned on the amount of available simulated data. The seemingly simple case study introduced in this work might serve as a prototype for studying a wide variety of applications, including adsorption and capillarity.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2023

Generalizing Impermanent Loss on Decentralized Exchanges with Constant Function Market Makers

Liquidity providers are essential for the function of decentralized exchanges to ensure liquidity takers can be guaranteed a counterparty for their trades. However, liquidity providers investing in liquidity pools face many risks, the most prominent of which is impermanent loss. Currently, analysis of this metric is difficult to conduct due to different market maker algorithms, fee structures and concentrated liquidity dynamics across the various exchanges. To this end, we provide a framework to generalize impermanent loss for multiple asset pools obeying any constant function market maker with optional concentrated liquidity. We also discuss how pool fees fit into the framework, and identify the condition for which liquidity provisioning becomes profitable when earnings from trading fees exceed impermanent loss. Finally, we demonstrate the utility and generalizability of this framework with simulations in BalancerV2 and UniswapV3.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2021

Physics-constrained Bayesian inference of state functions in classical density-functional theory

We develop a novel data-driven approach to the inverse problem of classical statistical mechanics: given experimental data on the collective motion of a classical many-body system, how does one characterise the free energy landscape of that system? By combining non-parametric Bayesian inference with physically-motivated constraints, we develop an efficient learning algorithm which automates the construction of approximate free energy functionals. In contrast to optimisation-based machine learning approaches, which seek to minimise a cost function, the central idea of the proposed Bayesian inference is to propagate a set of prior assumptions through the model, derived from physical principles. The experimental data is used to probabilistically weigh the possible model predictions. This naturally leads to humanly interpretable algorithms with full uncertainty quantification of predictions. In our case, the output of the learning algorithm is a probability distribution over a family of free energy functionals, consistent with the observed particle data. We find that surprisingly small data samples contain sufficient information for inferring highly accurate analytic expressions of the underlying free energy functionals, making our algorithm highly data efficient. We consider excluded volume particle interactions, which are ubiquitous in nature, whilst being highly challenging for modelling in terms of free energy. To validate our approach we consider the paradigmatic case of one-dimensional fluid and develop inference algorithms for the canonical and grand-canonical statistical-mechanical ensembles. Extensions to higher-dimensional systems are conceptually straightforward, whilst standard coarse-graining techniques allow one to easily incorporate attractive interactions.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2021

A Finite-Volume Method for Fluctuating Dynamical Density Functional Theory

We introduce a finite-volume numerical scheme for solving stochastic gradient-flow equations. Such equations are of crucial importance within the framework of fluctuating hydrodynamics and dynamic density functional theory. Our proposed scheme deals with general free-energy functionals, including, for instance, external fields or interaction potentials. This allows us to simulate a range of physical phenomena where thermal fluctuations play a crucial role, such as nucleation and other energy-barrier crossing transitions. A positivity-preserving algorithm for the density is derived based on a hybrid space discretization of the deterministic and the stochastic terms and different implicit and explicit time integrators. We show through numerous applications that not only our scheme is able to accurately reproduce the statistical properties (structure factor and correlations) of the physical system, but, because of the multiplicative noise, it allows us to simulate energy barrier crossing dynamics, which cannot be captured by mean-field approaches.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2019

Mixing--Demixing Transition in Polymer-Grafted Spherical Nanoparticles

Polymer-grafted nanoparticles (PGNPs) can provide property profiles than cannot be obtained individually by polymers or nanoparticles (NPs). Here, we have studied the mixing--demixing transition of symmetric copolymer melts of polymer-grafted spherical nanoparticles by means of coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulation and a theoretical mean-field model. We find that a larger size of NPs leads to higher stability for given number of grafted chains and chain length reaching a point where demixing is not possible. Most importantly, the increase in the number of grafted chains, $N_g$, can initially favour the phase separation of PGNPs, but further increase can lead to more difficult demixing. The reason is the increasing impact of an effective core that forms as the grafting density of the tethered polymer chains around the NPs increases. The range and exact values of $N_g$ where this change in behaviour takes place depends on the NP size and the chain length of the grafted polymer chains. Our study elucidates the phase behaviour of PGNPs and in particular the influence of the grafting density on the phase behaviour of the systems anticipating that it will open new doors in the understanding of these systems with implications in materials science and medicine.

cond-mat.soft↗

arXiv2017

Pseudospectral methods for density functional theory in bounded and unbounded domains

Classical Density Functional Theory (DFT) is a statistical-mechanical framework to analyze fluids, which accounts for nanoscale fluid inhomogeneities and non-local intermolecular interactions. DFT can be applied to a wide range of interfacial phenomena, as well as problems in adsorption, colloidal science and phase transitions in fluids. Typical DFT equations are highly non-linear, stiff and contain several convolution terms. We propose a novel, efficient pseudo-spectral collocation scheme for computing the non-local terms in real space with the help of a specialized Gauss quadrature. Due to the exponential accuracy of the quadrature and a convenient choice of collocation points near interfaces, we can use grids with a significantly lower number of nodes than most other reported methods. We demonstrate the capabilities of our numerical methodology by studying equilibrium and dynamic two-dimensional test cases with single- and multispecies hard-sphere and hard-disc particles modelled with fundamental measure theory, with and without van der Waals attractive forces, in bounded and unbounded physical domains. We show that our results satisfy statistical mechanical sum rules.

cs.CE↗