Philip L. Varghese | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Predicted Ejecta Dynamics and Observability of the 2026 Falcon 9 Upper Stage Lunar Impact

On Aug. 5 at 06:34 UTC, a Falcon 9 upper stage (~3,900 kg) will strike the lunar surface at 2.43 km/s, yielding a potentially visible debris plume. We present a study of the expected impact dynamics and resulting possibly observable debris field. The debris plume should reach roughly 15 to 20 km in altitude for the ejecta curtain and 75 to 100 km for the central ejecta spike, extend 183 km laterally from the impact point near the sunlit limb, and yield a peak dust column density above 10 km altitude of 6.08*10^7 m^-2. Simulated I/F exceeds dark-sky background brightness by several orders of magnitude for the first few minutes after impact, reaching I/F = 1.27*10^-3 at the earliest resolved time (t = 5 s). Above 10 km, peak I/F reaches 1.33*10^-5, still several orders of magnitude brighter than the dark sky.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Transport of water in a Transient, Impact-Generated Atmosphere on Mercury

Mercury's polar cold traps host water ice deposits that are likely populated with impact-delivered water via Mercury's exosphere. However, Mercury's near-sun location experiences an extremely high photodestruction rate that rapidly destroys water with a timescale of only ~3.5 hours. Here we use the PLANET DSMC code to investigate the fate of water from a single 1 km radius comet impact striking Mercury's North Pole (30 km/s at angle of 60°). We find that the evolving plume separates into four distinct phases: 1) an early plume phase in which ballistic escape and photodestruction reach their peaks, 2) a reentry phase in which water falling back toward the surface forms a self-shielded shock-topped atmosphere that migrates across the surface and ballistic loss ceases, 3) a quasi-steady phase in which a self-shielding dawn atmospheric enhancement (DAE) forms and drives, a tenuous migration of exospheric water to the cold traps with a longitudinal dependence, and finally 4) a late phase in which self-shielding ends and photodestruction dominates, effectively ending substantial water migration. In this work, we quantify the fates of the arriving water molecules, and describe some of the more important features of this highly unsteady, evolving three-dimensional atmosphere. We find that 23% of the initial water is photodestroyed, 65% of the water ballistically escapes the system (of which, 79% photodissociates prior to reaching the Hill radius), and 14% ends up in Mercury's cold traps, which is significantly more than the ~5% that migrates to the Moon's cold traps during an equivalent impact.

astro-ph.EP↗