arXiv subjects

Philipp C. Böttcher

Publications and source records attributed to Philipp C. Böttcher.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A graph theoretic view on small signal stability of inverter-based power grids

Dynamic grid stability is traditionally ensured with synchronous generators. Modern grids rely substantially more on inverter-based resources, which require grid-forming control to guarantee adequate system-wide synchronization and stability. Small-signal stability has granted various centralized and decentralized stability certificates - but these have primarily been limited to sufficient criteria only. In this work, we construct a necessary and sufficient small-signal stability criterion for lossless inverter-based power grids with arbitrary topology. We show that asymptotic stability is equivalent to the positive definiteness of a single matrix that combines network topology, operating point, and effective droop gains. We derive graph-theoretic stability criteria based on an augmented cone graph and show that the contribution of graph cycles is typically small, as illustrated for three IEEE test cases. The resulting framework yields decentralized stability criteria, quantifies the conservatism introduced by decentralization, and may support the development of future grid codes.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Cascading Failures and Critical Infrastructures in Future Renewable European Power Systems

The world's power systems are undergoing a rapid transformation, shifting away from carbon-intensive power generation to renewable sources. As a result, electricity is being transported over ever longer distances, while the intrinsic system inertia provided by thermal power plants decreases. Together, these developments raise the probability of cascading line failures and reduce the stability of the system after a system split. In this article, we assess the risk of cascading failures and system splits in the European power grid for different carbon reduction scenarios. We analyze the most likely and most dangerous splits, and identify critical transmission infrastructures and we discuss potential countermeasures that can address the problem of cascades. Our results show that while the risks of splits causing power failures rises with decarbonization, it can be mitigated cost efficiently.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Impact of Market Reforms on Deterministic Frequency Deviations in the European Power Grid

Deterministic frequency deviations (DFDs) are systematic and predictable excursions of grid frequency that arise from synchronized generation ramps induced by electricity market scheduling. In this paper, we analyze the impact of the European day-ahead market reform of 1 October 2025, which replaced hourly trading blocks with quarter-hourly blocks, on DFDs in the Central European synchronous area. Using publicly available frequency measurements, we compare periods before and after the reform based on daily frequency profiles, indicators characterizing frequency deviations, principal component analysis, Fourier-based functional data analysis, and power spectral density analysis. We show that the reform substantially reduces characteristic hourly frequency deviations and suppresses dominant spectral components at hourly and half-hourly time scales, while quarter-hourly structures gain relative importance. While the likelihood of large frequency deviations decreases overall, reductions for extreme events are less clear and depend on the metric used. Our results demonstrate that market design reforms can effectively mitigate systematic frequency deviations, but also highlight that complementary technical and regulatory measures are required to further reduce large frequency excursions in low-inertia power systems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Synchronized states of power grids and oscillator networks by convex optimization

Synchronization is essential for the operation of AC power systems: All generators in the power grid must rotate with fixed relative phases to enable a steady flow of electric power. Understanding the conditions for and the limitations of synchronization is of utmost practical importance. In this article, we propose a novel approach to compute and analyze the stable stationary states of a power grid or an oscillator network in terms of a convex optimization problem. This approach allows to systematically compute \emph{all} stable states where the phase difference across an edge does not exceed $π/2$.Furthermore, the optimization formulation allows to rigorously establish certain properties of synchronized states and to bound the error in the widely used linear power flow approximation.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2023

Formation of trade networks by economies of scale and product differentiation

Understanding the structure and formation of networks is a central topic in complexity science. Economic networks are formed by decisions of individual agents and thus not properly described by established random graph models. In this article, we establish a model for the emergence of trade networks that is based on rational decisions of individual agents. The model incorporates key drivers for the emergence of trade, comparative advantage and economic scale effects, but also the heterogeneity of agents and the transportation or transaction costs. Numerical simulations show three macroscopically different regimes of the emerging trade networks. Depending on the specific transportation costs and the heterogeneity of individual preferences, we find centralized production with a star-like trade network, distributed production with all-to-all trading or local production and no trade. Using methods from statistical mechanics, we provide an analytic theory of the transitions between these regimes and estimates for critical parameters values.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Stability bounds of droop-controlled inverters in power grid networks

The energy mix of future power systems will include high shares of wind power and solar PV. These generation facilities are generally connected via power-electronic inverters. While conventional generation responds dynamically to the state of the electric power system, inverters are power electronic hardware and need to be programmed to react to the state of the system. Choosing an appropriate control scheme and the corresponding parameters is necessary to guarantee that the system operates safely. A prominent control scheme for inverters is droop control, which mimics the response of conventional generation. In this work, we investigate the stability of coupled systems of droop-controlled inverters in arbitrary network topologies. Employing linear stability analysis, we derive effective local stability criteria that consider both the overall network topology as well as its interplay with the inverters' intrinsic parameters. First, we explore the stability of an inverter coupled to an infinite grid in an analytic fashion and uncover stability and instability regions. Secondly, we extend the analysis to a generic topology of inverters and provide mathematical criteria for stability and instability of the system. Last, we showcase the usefulness of the criteria by examining two model systems using numerical simulations. The developed criteria show which parameters might lead to an unstable operating state.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2023

Local versus global stability in dynamical systems with consecutive Hopf-Bifurcations

Quantifying the stability of an equilibrium is central in the theory of dynamical systems as well as in engineering and control. A comprehensive picture must include the response to both small and large perturbations, leading to the concepts of local (linear) and global stability. Here, we show how systems displaying Hopf bifurcations show contrarian results on these two aspects of stability: Global stability is large close to the point where the system loses its local stability altogether. We demonstrate this effect for an elementary model system, an anharmonic oscillator and a realistic model of power system dynamics with delayed control. Detailed investigations of the bifurcation explain the seeming paradox in terms of the location of the attractors relative to the equilibrium.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2022

Initial analysis of the impact of the Ukrainian power grid synchronization with Continental Europe

When Russia invaded Ukraine on the 24\textsuperscript{th} of February 2022, this led to many acts of solidarity with Ukraine, including support for its electricity system. Just 20 days after the invasion started, the Ukrainian and Moldovan power grids were synchronized to the Continental European power grid to provide stability to these grids. Here, we present an initial analysis of how this synchronization affected the statistics of the power grid frequency and cross-border flows of electric power within Continental Europe. We observe faster inter-area oscillations, an increase in fluctuations and changes in the cross-border flows in and out of Ukraine and surrounding countries as an effect of the synchronization with Continental Europe. Overall these changes are small such that the now connected system can be considered as stable as before the synchronization.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Dual communities in spatial networks

Both human-made and natural supply systems, such as power grids and leaf venation networks, are built to operate reliably under changing external conditions. Many of these spatial networks exhibit community structures. Here, we show that a relatively strong connectivity between the parts of a network can be used to define a different class of communities: dual communities. We demonstrate that traditional and dual communities emerge naturally as two different phases of optimized network structures that are shaped by fluctuations and that they suppress failure spreading, which underlines their importance in understanding the shape of real-world supply networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Collective effects and synchronization of demand in real-time demand response

Sustainable energy systems require flexible elements to balance the variability of renewable energy sources. Demand response aims to adapt the demand to the variable generation, in particular by shifting the load in time. In this article, we provide a detailed statistic analysis of the collective operation of many demand response units. We establish and simulate a model for load shifting in response to real-time electricity pricing using local storage systems. We show that demand response drives load shifting as desired, but also induces strong collective effects that may threaten system stability. The load of individual households synchronizes, leading to extreme demand peaks. We provide a detailed statistical analysis of the grid load, and quantify both the likeliness and extent of extreme demand peaks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Dynamic stability of electric power grids: Tracking the interplay of the network structure, transmission losses and voltage dynamics

Dynamic stability is imperative for the operation of the electric power system. This article provides analytical results and effective stability criteria focusing on the interplay of network structures and the local dynamics of synchronous machines. The results are based on an extensive linear stability analysis of the third-order model for synchronous machines, comprising the classical power-swing equations and the voltage dynamics. The article explicitly covers the impact of Ohmic losses in a linear approximation in power grids, which are often neglected in analytical studies. Necessary and sufficient stability conditions are formulated, and different routes to instability are analysed, yielding concrete mathematical criteria applicable to all scales of power grids, from transmission to distribution grids, as well as microgrids. A subsequent numerical study of the criteria is presented, without and with resistive terms, to test how tight the derived analytical results are.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2021

Complexity and Persistence of Price Time Series of the European Electricity Spot Market

The large variability of renewable power sources is a central challenge in the transition to a sustainable energy system. Electricity markets are central for the coordination of electric power generation. These markets rely evermore on short-term trading to facilitate the balancing of power generation and demand and to enable systems integration of small producers. Electricity prices in these spot markets show pronounced fluctuations, featuring extreme peaks as well as occasional negative prices. In this article, we analyse electricity price time series from the European EPEX market, in particular the hourly day-ahead, hourly intraday, and 15-min intraday market prices. We quantify the fluctuations, correlations, and extreme events and reveal different time scales in the dynamics of the market. The short-term fluctuations show remarkably different characteristics for time scales below and above 12 hours. Fluctuations are strongly correlated and persistent below 12 hours, which contributes to extreme price events and a strong multifractal behaviour. On longer time scales, they get anti-correlated and price time series revert to their mean, witnessed by a stark decrease of the Hurst coefficient after 12 hours. The long-term behaviour is strongly influenced by the evolution of a large-scale weather patterns with a typical time scale of four days. We elucidate this dependence in detail using a classification into circulation weather types. The separation in time scales enables a superstatistical treatment, which confirms the characteristic time scale of four days, and motivates the use of $q$-Gaussian distributions as the best fit to the empiric distribution of electricity prices.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2019

Time delay effects in the control of synchronous electricity grids

The expansion of inverter-connected generation facilities (i.e. wind and photovoltaics) and the removal of conventional power plants is necessary to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Whereas conventional generation with large rotating generator masses provides stabilizing inertia, inverter-connected generation does not. Since the underlying power system and the control mechanisms that keep it close to a desired reference state, were not designed for such a low inertia system, this might make the system vulnerable to disturbances. In this paper, we will investigate whether the currently used control mechanisms are able to keep a low inertia system stable and how this is effected by the time delay between a frequency deviation and the onset of the control action. We integrate the control mechanisms used in continental Europe into a model of coupled oscillators which resembles the second order Kuramoto model. This model is then used to investigate how the interplay of changing inertia, network topology and delayed control effects the stability of the interconnected power system. To identify regions in parameter space that make stable grid operation possible, the linearized system is analyzed to create the system's stability chart. We show that lower and distributed inertia could have a beneficial effect on the stability of the desired synchronous state.

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