arXiv subjects

Philipp Seitz

Publications and source records attributed to Philipp Seitz.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Do AI weather models miss extremes?

First-generation AI weather models are often reported to underperform at extremes, mostly in reanalysis-based evaluations of deterministic regression systems. We verify eleven physical and AI forecast systems against European synoptic, solar, and rain-gauge stations over ten months for 10 m wind, 2 m temperature, hourly shortwave accumulation, and hourly precipitation, scoring mean absolute error (MAE) against ECMWF IFS in ERA5 1991-2020 climatological regimes. Among these systems, AI models do not show a uniform relative-skill deficit in the tails. Jua EPT-2.1 Europa leads all-conditions wind (+8.4%), while Jua EPT-2 HRRR leads temperature overall (+12.1%) and in the heat regime (+19.6 +/- 2.2%). EPT-2.1 Europa and DWD ICON Global lead at gale-force wind. Jua EPT-2.1 Helios leads solar overall (+10.2 +/- 1.7%), in overcast conditions (+16.4 +/- 3.4%), and in the clear-sky tail (+24.8 +/- 5.4%). For precipitation, three Jua models gain 14-15% at moderate intensity and 9-11% at P75-P95; EPT-2 Reasoning remains ahead above P95 (+1.7 +/- 0.5%). Failures are model-specific: ECMWF AIFS loses 4.9 +/- 2.0% in the heat tail, while NOAA GFS loses 22.8 +/- 2.0% there. Every model, including numerical weather prediction systems, shows a shared conditional bias toward the centre of the observed distribution, with an inter-model spread several times smaller than the shared signal. Missing relative skill at extremes is therefore not a property of AI weather models as a class, but of particular AI and physical models.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Evaluation of Bagging Predictors with Kernel Density Estimation and Bagging Score

For a larger set of predictions of several differently trained machine learning models, known as bagging predictors, the mean of all predictions is taken by default. Nevertheless, this proceeding can deviate from the actual ground truth in certain parameter regions. An approach is presented to determine a representative y_BS from such a set of predictions using Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) in nonlinear regression with Neural Networks (NN) which simultaneously provides an associated quality criterion beta_BS, called Bagging Score (BS), that reflects the confidence of the obtained ensemble prediction. It is shown that working with the new approach better predictions can be made than working with the common use of mean or median. In addition to this, the used method is contrasted to several approaches of nonlinear regression from the literatur, resulting in a top ranking in each of the calculated error values without using any optimization or feature selection technique.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Universal Diffusion-Based Probabilistic Downscaling

We introduce a universal diffusion-based downscaling framework that lifts deterministic low-resolution weather forecasts into probabilistic high-resolution predictions without any model-specific fine-tuning. A single conditional diffusion model is trained on paired coarse-resolution inputs (~25 km resolution) and high-resolution regional reanalysis targets (~5 km resolution), and is applied in a fully zero-shot manner to deterministic forecasts from heterogeneous upstream weather models. Focusing on near-surface variables, we evaluate probabilistic forecasts against independent in situ station observations over lead times up to 90 h. Across a diverse set of AI-based and numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, the ensemble mean of the downscaled forecasts consistently improves upon each model's own raw deterministic forecast, and substantially larger gains are observed in probabilistic skill as measured by CRPS. These results demonstrate that diffusion-based downscaling provides a scalable, model-agnostic probabilistic interface for enhancing spatial resolution and uncertainty representation in operational weather forecasting pipelines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Quantum-HPC hybrid computation of biomolecular excited-state energies

We develop a workflow within the ONIOM framework and demonstrate it on the hybrid computing system consisting of the supercomputer Fugaku and the Quantinuum Reimei trapped-ion quantum computer. This hybrid platform extends the layered approach for biomolecular chemical reactions to accurately treat the active site, such as a protein, and the large and often weakly correlated molecular environment. Our result marks a significant milestone in enabling scalable and accurate simulation of complex biomolecular reactions

quant-ph↗

arXiv2025

Extending Quantum Computing through Subspace, Embedding and Classical Molecular Dynamics Techniques

The advent of hybrid computing platforms consisting of quantum processing units integrated with conventional high-performance computing brings new opportunities for algorithm design. By strategically offloading select portions of the workload to classical hardware where tractable, we may broaden the applicability of quantum computation in the near term. In this perspective, we review techniques that facilitate the study of subdomains of chemical systems with quantum computers and present a proof-of-concept demonstration of quantum-selected configuration interaction deployed within a multiscale/multiphysics simulation workflow leveraging classical molecular dynamics, projection-based embedding and qubit subspace tools. This allows the technology to be utilised for simulating systems of real scientific and industrial interest, which not only brings true quantum utility closer to realisation but is also relevant as we look forward to the fault-tolerant regime.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2024

SCIM MILQ: An HPC Quantum Scheduler

With the increasing sophistication and capability of quantum hardware, its integration, and employment in high performance computing (HPC) infrastructure becomes relevant. This opens largely unexplored access models and scheduling questions in such quantum-classical computing environments, going beyond the current cloud access model. SCIM MILQ is a scheduler for quantum tasks in HPC infrastructure. It combines well-established scheduling techniques with methods unique to quantum computing, such as circuit cutting. SCIM MILQ can schedule tasks while minimizing the makespan, i.e., the time that elapses from the start of work to the end, improving on average by 25%. Additionally, it reduces the noise in the circuit by up to 10%, increasing the outcome's reliability. We compare it against an existing baseline and show its viability in an HPC environment.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2023

Multithreaded parallelism for heterogeneous clusters of QPUs

In this work, we present MILQ, a quantum unrelated parallel machines scheduler and cutter. The setting of unrelated parallel machines considers independent hardware backends, each distinguished by differing setup and processing times. MILQ optimizes the total execution time of a batch of circuits scheduled on multiple quantum devices. It leverages state-of-the-art circuit-cutting techniques to fit circuits onto the devices and schedules them based on a mixed-integer linear program. Our results show a total improvement of up to 26 % compared to a baseline approach.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2023

Integration of Quantum Accelerators with High Performance Computing -- A Review of Quantum Programming Tools

Quantum computing (QC) introduces a novel mode of computation with the possibility of greater computational power that remains to be exploited - presenting exciting opportunities for high performance computing (HPC) applications. However, recent advancements in the field have made clear that QC does not supplant conventional HPC, but can rather be incorporated into current heterogeneous HPC infrastructures as an additional accelerator, thereby enabling the optimal utilization of both paradigms. The desire for such integration significantly affects the development of software for quantum computers, which in turn influences the necessary software infrastructure. To date, previous review papers have investigated various quantum programming tools (QPTs) (such as languages, libraries, frameworks) in their ability to program, compile, and execute quantum circuits. However, the integration effort with classical HPC frameworks or systems has not been addressed. This study aims to characterize existing QPTs from an HPC perspective, investigating if existing QPTs have the potential to be efficiently integrated with classical computing models and determining where work is still required. This work structures a set of criteria into an analysis blueprint that enables HPC scientists to assess whether a QPT is suitable for the quantum-accelerated classical application at hand.

cs.ET↗

arXiv2023

Toward a Unified Hybrid HPCQC Toolchain

In the expanding field of Quantum Computing (QC), efficient and seamless integration of QC and high performance computing (HPC) elements (e.g., quantum hardware, classical hardware, and software infrastructure on both sides) plays a crucial role. This paper addresses the development of a unified toolchain designed for hybrid quantum-classical systems. Our work proposes a design for a unified hybrid high performance computing - quantum computing (HPCQC) toolchain that tackles pressing issues such as scalability, cross-technology execution, and ahead-of-time (AOT) optimization.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2022

Simulating quantum circuits using tree tensor networks

We develop and analyze a method for simulating quantum circuits on classical computers by representing quantum states as rooted tree tensor networks. Our algorithm first determines a suitable, fixed tree structure adapted to the expected entanglement generated by the quantum circuit. The gates are sequentially applied to the tree by absorbing single-qubit gates into leaf nodes, and splitting two-qubit gates via singular value decomposition and threading the resulting virtual bond through the tree. We theoretically analyze the applicability of the method as well as its computational cost and memory requirements, and identify advantageous scenarios in terms of required bond dimensions as compared to a matrix product state representation. The study is complemented by numerical experiments for different quantum circuit layouts up to 37 qubits.

quant-ph↗