arXiv subjects

Philippe Ciais

Publications and source records attributed to Philippe Ciais.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Aligning long-term climate mitigation with enhanced methane action

The Global Methane Pledge and other methane measures may potentially undermine CO2 mitigation in certain countries, unless they are considered as additional to the existing Nationally Determined Contributions to strengthen overall greenhouse gas emission targets. Maintaining the progress on CO2 mitigation in the revision of Nationally Determined Contributions after the first Global Stocktake, while pursuing the immediate benefits from methane mitigation, is necessary to address climate change in the long-term.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2023

Transparent framework to assess the revision of climate pledges after the first Global Stocktake

To assess the impact of potential future climate pledges after the first Global Stocktake, we propose a simple, transparent framework for developing emission and temperature scenarios by country. We show that current pledges with unconditional targets lead to global warming of 1.96 (1.39-2.6) degree C by 2100. Further warming could be limited through i) commitment to mid-century net-zero targets for all countries and earlier net-zero targets for developed countries, ii) enhancement of the Global Methane Pledge, and iii) ambitious implementation of the Glasgow Leaders Declaration on Forests and Land Use. Our analysis further shows that overshooting 1.5 degree C is unavoidable, even with supplementary climate engineering strategies, suggesting the need for strategies to limit further overshoot and ultimately reduce the warming towards 1.5 degree C.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2023

Near-real-time monitoring of global ocean carbon sink

Mitigation of climate change will highly rely on a carbon emission trajectory that achieves carbon neutrality by the 2050s. The ocean plays a critical role in modulating climate change by sequestering CO2 from the atmosphere. Relying on the multidisciplinary cutting-edge methodologies and technologies, the near-real-time monitoring of global ocean carbon sinks from January 2022 to July 2023 aims to provide the world's latest assessment of monthly and gridded global ocean carbon sinks based on machine learning and other data science technologies. The project will help us find a robust route to deal with climate change, which will significantly promote the ocean carbon sinks research and will be of great interest for policy makers, researchers, and the public. This research aims to build up an integrated machine learning framework and methodology for assessing global ocean carbon neutral process; development of near-real-time dataset; development of visualization platform; research papers published in international prestigious journals; an executive report openly accessible to policy makers and the public.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2023

SolarEV City Concept for Paris: A promising idea?

Urban decarbonization is one of the pillars for strategies to achieve carbon neutrality around the world. However, the current speed of urban decarbonization is insufficient to keep pace with efforts to achieve this goal. Rooftop PVs integrated with electric vehicles (EVs) as battery is a promising technology capable to supply CO2-free, affordable, and dispatchable electricity in urban environments (SolarEV City Concept). Here, we evaluated Paris, France for the decarbonization potentials of rooftop PV + EV in comparison to the surrounding suburban area Ile-de-France and Kyoto, Japan. We assessed various scenarios by calculating the energy sufficiency, self-consumption, self-sufficiency, cost savings, and CO2 emission reduction of the PV + EV system or PV only system. The combination of EVs with PVs by V2H or V2B systems at the city or region level was found to be more effective in Ile-de-France than in Paris suggesting that SolarEV City is more effective for geographically larger area including Paris. If implemented at a significant scale, they can add substantial values to rooftop PV economics and keep a high self-consumption and self-sufficiency, which also allows bypassing the classical battery storage that is too expensive to be profitable. Furthermore, the systems potentially allow rapid CO2 emissions reduction; however, with already low-carbon electricity of France by nuclear power, CO2 abatement (0.020 kgCO2kWh-1 reduction from 0.063 kgCO2kWh-1) by PV + EV system can be limited, in comparison to that (0.270 kgCO2kWh-1 reduction from 0.352 kgCO2kWh-1) of Kyoto, also because of the Paris low insolation and high demands in higher latitude winter. While the SolarEV City Concept can help Paris to move one step closer to the carbon neutrality goal, there are also implementation challenges for installing PVs in Paris.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Vision Transformers, a new approach for high-resolution and large-scale mapping of canopy heights

Accurate and timely monitoring of forest canopy heights is critical for assessing forest dynamics, biodiversity, carbon sequestration as well as forest degradation and deforestation. Recent advances in deep learning techniques, coupled with the vast amount of spaceborne remote sensing data offer an unprecedented opportunity to map canopy height at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Current techniques for wall-to-wall canopy height mapping correlate remotely sensed 2D information from optical and radar sensors to the vertical structure of trees using LiDAR measurements. While studies using deep learning algorithms have shown promising performances for the accurate mapping of canopy heights, they have limitations due to the type of architectures and loss functions employed. Moreover, mapping canopy heights over tropical forests remains poorly studied, and the accurate height estimation of tall canopies is a challenge due to signal saturation from optical and radar sensors, persistent cloud covers and sometimes the limited penetration capabilities of LiDARs. Here, we map heights at 10 m resolution across the diverse landscape of Ghana with a new vision transformer (ViT) model optimized concurrently with a classification (discrete) and a regression (continuous) loss function. This model achieves better accuracy than previously used convolutional based approaches (ConvNets) optimized with only a continuous loss function. The ViT model results show that our proposed discrete/continuous loss significantly increases the sensitivity for very tall trees (i.e., > 35m), for which other approaches show saturation effects. The height maps generated by the ViT also have better ground sampling distance and better sensitivity to sparse vegetation in comparison to a convolutional model. Our ViT model has a RMSE of 3.12m in comparison to a reference dataset while the ConvNet model has a RMSE of 4.3m.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

Impact of the Ukrainian crisis on the global food security

Using global wheat trade data and a network model for shock propagation, we study the impact of the Ukrainian crisis on food security. Depending on the level of reduction in Ukrainian wheat exports, the number of additional individuals falling under the minimum dietary energy requirement varies from 1 to 9 millions, and reaches about 4.8 millions for a $50\%$ reduction in exports. In the most affected countries, supply reductions are mainly related to indirect trade restrictions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

emIAM v1.0: an emulator for Integrated Assessment Models using marginal abatement cost curves

We developed an emulator for Integrated Assessment Models (emIAM) based on a marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve approach. Using the output of IAMs in the ENGAGE Scenario Explorer and the GET model, we derived a large set of MAC curves: ten IAMs; global and eleven regions; three gases CO2, CH4, and N2O; eight portfolios of available mitigation technologies; and two emission sources. We tested the performance of emIAM by coupling it with a simple climate model ACC2. We found that the optimizing climate-economy model emIAM-ACC2 adequately reproduced a majority of original IAM emission outcomes under similar conditions, allowing systematic explorations of IAMs with small computational resources. emIAM can expand the capability of simple climate models as a tool to calculate cost-effective pathways linked directly to a temperature target.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2022

High-resolution canopy height map in the Landes forest (France) based on GEDI, Sentinel-1, and Sentinel-2 data with a deep learning approach

In intensively managed forests in Europe, where forests are divided into stands of small size and may show heterogeneity within stands, a high spatial resolution (10 - 20 meters) is arguably needed to capture the differences in canopy height. In this work, we developed a deep learning model based on multi-stream remote sensing measurements to create a high-resolution canopy height map over the "Landes de Gascogne" forest in France, a large maritime pine plantation of 13,000 km$^2$ with flat terrain and intensive management. This area is characterized by even-aged and mono-specific stands, of a typical length of a few hundred meters, harvested every 35 to 50 years. Our deep learning U-Net model uses multi-band images from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 with composite time averages as input to predict tree height derived from GEDI waveforms. The evaluation is performed with external validation data from forest inventory plots and a stereo 3D reconstruction model based on Skysat imagery available at specific locations. We trained seven different U-net models based on a combination of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 bands to evaluate the importance of each instrument in the dominant height retrieval. The model outputs allow us to generate a 10 m resolution canopy height map of the whole "Landes de Gascogne" forest area for 2020 with a mean absolute error of 2.02 m on the Test dataset. The best predictions were obtained using all available satellite layers from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 but using only one satellite source also provided good predictions. For all validation datasets in coniferous forests, our model showed better metrics than previous canopy height models available in the same region.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

Carbon Monitor Europe, near-real-time daily CO$_2$ emissions for 27 EU countries and the United Kingdom

With the urgent need to implement the EU countries pledges and to monitor the effectiveness of Green Deal plan, Monitoring Reporting and Verification tools are needed to track how emissions are changing for all the sectors. Current official inventories only provide annual estimates of national CO$_2$ emissions with a lag of 1+ year which do not capture the variations of emissions due to recent shocks including COVID lockdowns and economic rebounds, war in Ukraine. Here we present a near-real-time country-level dataset of daily fossil fuel and cement emissions from January 2019 through December 2021 for 27 EU countries and UK, which called Carbon Monitor Europe. The data are calculated separately for six sectors: power, industry, ground transportation, domestic aviation, international aviation and residential. Daily CO$_2$ emissions are estimated from a large set of activity data compiled from different sources. The goal of this dataset is to improve the timeliness and temporal resolution of emissions for European countries, to inform the public and decision makers about current emissions changes in Europe.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2022

Near-real-time global gridded daily CO$_2$ emissions 2021

We present a near-real-time global gridded daily CO$_2$ emissions dataset (GRACED) throughout 2021. GRACED provides gridded CO$_2$ emissions at a 0.1degree*0.1degree spatial resolution and 1-day temporal resolution from cement production and fossil fuel combustion over seven sectors, including industry, power, residential consumption, ground transportation, international aviation, domestic aviation, and international shipping. GRACED is prepared from a near-real-time daily national CO$_2$ emissions estimates (Carbon Monitor), multi-source spatial activity data emissions and satellite NO$_2$ data for time variations of those spatial activity data. GRACED provides the most timely overview of emissions distribution changes, which enables more accurate and timely identification of when and where fossil CO$_2$ emissions have rebounded and decreased. Uncertainty analysis of GRACED gives a grid-level two-sigma uncertainty of value of 19.9% in 2021, indicating the reliability of GRACED was not sacrificed for the sake of higher spatiotemporal resolution that GRACED provides. Continuing to update GRACED in a timely manner could help policymakers monitor energy and climate policies' effectiveness and make adjustments quickly.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2022

Carbon Monitor-Power: near-real-time monitoring of global power generation on hourly to daily scales

We constructed a frequently updated, near-real-time global power generation dataset: Carbon Monitor-Power since January, 2016 at national levels with near-global coverage and hourly-to-daily time resolution. The data presented here are collected from 37 countries across all continents for eight source groups, including three types of fossil sources (coal, gas, and oil), nuclear energy and four groups of renewable energy sources (solar energy, wind energy, hydro energy and other renewables including biomass, geothermal, etc.). The global near-real-time power dataset shows the dynamics of the global power system, including its hourly, daily, weekly and seasonal patterns as influenced by daily periodical activities, weekends, seasonal cycles, regular and irregular events (i.e., holidays) and extreme events (i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic). The Carbon Monitor-Power dataset reveals that the COVID-19 pandemic caused strong disruptions in some countries (i.e., China and India), leading to a temporary or long-lasting shift to low carbon intensity, while it had only little impact in some other countries (i.e., Australia). This dataset offers a large range of opportunities for power-related scientific research and policy-making.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2022

Near-real-time estimates of daily CO2 emissions from 1500 cities worldwide

Building on near-real-time and spatially explicit estimates of daily carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, here we present and analyze a new city-level dataset of fossil fuel and cement emissions. Carbon Monitor Cities provides daily, city-level estimates of emissions from January 2019 through December 2021 for 1500 cities in 46 countries, and disaggregates five sectors: power generation, residential (buildings), industry, ground transportation, and aviation. The goal of this dataset is to improve the timeliness and temporal resolution of city-level emission inventories and includes estimates for both functional urban areas and city administrative areas that are consistent with global and regional totals. Comparisons with other datasets (i.e. CEADs, MEIC, Vulcan, and CDP) were performed, and we estimate the overall uncertainty to be 21.7%. Carbon Monitor Cities is a near-real-time, city-level emission dataset that includes cities around the world, including the first estimates for many cities in low-income countries. A more complete description of this dataset is published in Scientific Data (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01657-z).

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Carbon loss from forest degradation exceeds that from deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

Spatial-temporal dynamics of aboveground biomass (AGB) and forest area affect the carbon cycle, climate, and biodiversity in the Brazilian Amazon. Here we investigate inter-annual changes of AGB and forest area by analyzing satellite-based annual AGB and forest area datasets. We found the gross forest area loss was larger in 2019 than in 2015, possibly due to recent loosening of forest protection policies. However, net AGB loss was three times smaller in 2019 than in 2015. During 2010-2019, the Brazilian Amazon had a cumulative gross loss of 4.45 Pg C against a gross gain of 3.78 Pg C, resulting in net AGB loss of 0.67 Pg C. Forest degradation (73%) contributed three times more to the gross AGB loss than deforestation (27%), given that the areal extent of degradation exceeds deforestation. This indicates that forest degradation has become the largest process driving carbon loss and should become a higher policy priority.

physics.bio-ph↗

arXiv2022

Paris Agreement requires substantial, broad, and sustained engagements beyond COVID-19 public stimulus packages

It has been claimed that COVID-19 public stimulus packages could be sufficient to meet the short-term energy investment needs to leverage a shift toward a pathway consistent with the 1.5 degrees C target of the Paris Agreement. Here we provide complementary perspectives to reiterate that substantial, broad, and sustained engagements beyond stimulus packages will be needed for achieving the Paris Agreement long-term targets. Low-carbon investments will need to scale up and persist over the next several decades following short-term stimulus packages. The required total energy investments in the real world can be larger than the currently available estimates from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). Existing databases from IAMs are not sufficient for analyzing the effect of public spending on emission reduction. To inform what role COVID-19 stimulus packages and public investments may play for reaching the Paris Agreement targets, explicit modelling of such policies is required.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2021

Regional Impacts of COVID-19 on Carbon Dioxide Detected Worldwide from Space

Activity reductions in early 2020 due to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic led to unprecedented decreases in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Despite their record size, the resulting atmospheric signals are smaller than and obscured by climate variability in atmospheric transport and biospheric fluxes, notably that related to the 2019-2020 Indian Ocean Dipole. Monitoring CO2 anomalies and distinguishing human and climatic causes thus remains a new frontier in Earth system science. We show, for the first time, that the impact of short-term, regional changes in fossil fuel emissions on CO2 concentrations was observable from space. Starting in February and continuing through May, column CO2 over many of the World's largest emitting regions was 0.14 to 0.62 parts per million less than expected in a pandemic-free scenario, consistent with reductions of 3 to 13 percent in annual, global emissions. Current spaceborne technologies are therefore approaching levels of accuracy and precision needed to support climate mitigation strategies with future missions expected to meet those needs.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2021

Global Gridded Daily CO$_2$ Emissions

Precise and high-resolution carbon dioxide (CO$_2$) emission data is of great importance of achieving the carbon neutrality around the world. Here we present for the first time the near-real-time Global Gridded Daily CO$_2$ Emission Datasets (called GRACED) from fossil fuel and cement production with a global spatial-resolution of 0.1$^\circ$ by 0.1$^\circ$ and a temporal-resolution of 1-day. Gridded fossil emissions are computed for different sectors based on the daily national CO$_2$ emissions from near real time dataset (Carbon Monitor), the spatial patterns of point source emission dataset Global Carbon Grid (GID), Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) and spatiotemporal patters of satellite nitrogen dioxide (NO$_2$) retrievals. Our study on the global CO$_2$ emissions responds to the growing and urgent need for high-quality, fine-grained near-real-time CO2 emissions estimates to support global emissions monitoring across various spatial scales. We show the spatial patterns of emission changes for power, industry, residential consumption, ground transportation, domestic and international aviation, and international shipping sectors between 2019 and 2020. This help us to give insights on the relative contributions of various sectors and provides a fast and fine-grained overview of where and when fossil CO$_2$ emissions have decreased and rebounded in response to emergencies (e.g. COVID-19) and other disturbances of human activities than any previously published dataset. As the world recovers from the pandemic and decarbonizes its energy systems, regular updates of this dataset will allow policymakers to more closely monitor the effectiveness of climate and energy policies and quickly adapt.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2021

Impact of lockdowns and winter temperatures on natural gas consumption in Europe

As the COVID-19 virus spread over the world, governments restricted mobility to slow transmission. Public health measures had different intensities across European countries but all had significant impact on peoples daily lives and economic activities, causing a drop of CO2 emissions of about 10% for the whole year 2020. Here, we analyze changes in natural gas use in the industry and built environment sectors during the first half of year 2020 with daily gas flows data from pipeline and storage facilities in Europe. We find that reductions of industrial gas use reflect decreases in industrial production across most countries. Surprisingly, natural gas use in buildings also decreased despite most people being confined at home and cold spells in March 2020. Those reductions that we attribute to the impacts of COVID-19 remain of comparable magnitude to previous variations induced by cold or warm climate anomalies in the cold season. We conclude that climate variations played a larger role than COVID-19 induced stay-home orders in natural gas consumption across Europe.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2021

Global Assessment of Oil and Gas Methane Ultra-Emitters

Methane emissions from oil and gas (O&G) production and transmission represent a significant contribution to climate change. These emissions comprise sporadic releases of large amounts of methane during maintenance operations or equipment failures not accounted for in current inventory estimates. We collected and analyzed hundreds of very large releases from atmospheric methane images sampled by the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) over 2019 and 2020 to quantify emissions from O&G ultra-emitters. Ultra-emitters are primarily detected over the largest O&G basins of the world, following a power-law relationship with noticeable variations across countries but similar regression slopes. With a total contribution equivalent to 8-12% of the global O&G production methane emissions, mitigation of ultra-emitters is largely achievable at low costs and would lead to robust net benefits in billions of US dollars for the six major producing countries when incorporating recent estimates of societal costs of methane.

physics.ao-ph↗