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Philippe Soulier

Publications and source records attributed to Philippe Soulier.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Convergence of Stochastic Gradient Descent with mini-batching and infinite variance

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with mini-batching is a standard tool in large-scale optimization, yet its theoretical properties under heavy-tailed gradient noise remain largely unexplored. In this paper we study SGD with increasing batch sizes when the gradient noise belongs to the domain of attraction of an $\alpha$-stable law with $\alpha\in(1,2)$. Building on existing results for the finite-variance regime and for heavy-tailed SGD without batching, we establish three main results. First, we derive $L^p$ moment bounds for the SGD error and show that increasing batch sizes lead to faster convergence rates. In particular, batching enables convergence in probability even for a constant stepsize. Second, we prove that the properly normalized SGD iterates converge in distribution to the stationary law of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by an $\alpha$-stable L\'evy process. Third, for Polyak-Ruppert averaging we obtain a stable limit theorem with a normalization that explicitly depends on the batch-size schedule.

math.PR

Branching random walk with infinite progeny mean: a tale of two tails

We study the extremes of branching random walks under the assumption that the underlying Galton-Watson tree has infinite progeny mean. It is assumed that the displacements are either regularly varying or they have lighter tails. In the regularly varying case, it is shown that the point process sequence of normalized extremes converges to a Poisson random measure. We study the asymptotics of the scaled position of the rightmost particle in the $n$-th generation when the tail of the displacement behaves like $\exp(-K(x))$, where either $K$ is a regularly varying function of index $r> 0$, or $K$ has an exponential growth. We identify the exact scaling of the maxima in all cases and show the existence of a non-trivial limit when $r> 1$.

math.PR

Long-Horizon Return Predictability from Realized Volatility in Pure-Jump Point Processes

We develop and justify methodology to consistently test for long-horizon return predictability based on realized variance. To accomplish this, we propose a parametric transaction-level model for the continuous-time log price process based on a pure jump point process. The model determines the returns and realized variance at any level of aggregation with properties shown to be consistent with the stylized facts in the empirical finance literature. Under our model, the long-memory parameter propagates unchanged from the transaction-level drift to the calendar-time returns and the realized variance, leading endogenously to a balanced predictive regression equation. We propose an asymptotic framework using power-law aggregation in the predictive regression. Within this framework, we propose a hypothesis test for long horizon return predictability which is asymptotically correctly sized and consistent.

econ.EM

The tail process and tail measure of continuous time regularly varying stochastic processes

The goal of this paper is to investigate the tools of extreme value theory originally introduced for discrete time stationary stochastic processes (time series), namely the tail process and the tail measure, in the framework of continuous time stochastic processes with paths in the space $\mathcal{D}$ of càdlàg functions indexed by $\mathbb{R}$, endowed with Skorohod's $J_1$ topology. We prove that the essential properties of these objects are preserved, with some minor (though interesting) differences arising. We first obtain structural results which provide representation for homogeneous shift-invariant measures on $\mathcal{D}$ and then study regular variation of random elements in $\mathcal{D}$. We give practical conditions and study several examples, recovering and extending known results.

math.PR

The tail empirical process of regularly varying functions of geometrically ergodic Markov chains

We consider a stationary regularly varying time series which can be expressedas a function of a geometrically ergodic Markov chain. We obtain practical conditionsfor the weak convergence of the tail array sums and feasible estimators ofcluster statistics. These conditions include the so-called geometric drift or Foster-Lyapunovcondition and can be easily checked for most usual time series models witha Markovian structure. We illustrate these conditions on several models and statisticalapplications. A counterexample is given to show a different limiting behaviorwhen the geometric drift condition is not fulfilled.

math.ST

Tail measure and tail spectral process of regularly varying time series

The goal of this paper is an exhaustive investigation of the link between the tail measure of a regularly varying time series and its spectral tail process, independently introduced in Owada and Samorodnitsky (2012) and Basrak and Segers (2009). Our main result is to prove in an abstract framework that there is a one to one correspondance between these two objets, and given one of them to show that it is always possible to build a time series of which it will be the tail measure or the spectral tail process. For non negative time series, we recover results explicitly or implicitly known in the theory of max-stable processes.

math.PR

Statistical inference for heavy tailed series with extremal independence

We consider stationary time series $\{X_j, j \in Z\} whose finite dimensional distributions are regularly varying with extremal independence. We assume that for each $h \geq 1$, conditionally on $X_0$ to exceed a threshold tending to infinity, the conditional distribution of $X_h$ suitably normalized converges weakly to a non degenerate distribution. We consider in this paper the estimation of the normalization and of the limiting distribution.

math.ST

An invariance principle for sums and record times of regularly varying stationary sequences

We prove a sequence of limiting results about weakly dependent stationary and regularly varying stochastic processes in discrete time. After deducing the limiting distribution for individual clusters of extremes, we present a new type of point process convergence theorem. It is designed to preserve the entire information about the temporal ordering of observations which is typically lost in the limit after time scaling. By going beyond the existing asymptotic theory, we are able to prove a new functional limit theorem. Its assumptions are satisfied by a wide class of applied time series models, for which standard limiting theory in the space $D$ of \cadlag\ functions does not apply. To describe the limit of partial sums in this more general setting, we use the space~$E$ of so--called decorated \cadlag\ functions. We also study the running maximum of partial sums for which a corresponding functional theorem can be still expressed in the familiar setting of space $D$. We further apply our method to analyze record times in a sequence of dependent stationary observations, even when their marginal distribution is not necessarily regularly varying. Under certain restrictions on dependence among the observations, we show that the record times after scaling converge to a relatively simple compound scale invariant Poisson process.

math.PR

The tail process revisited

The tail measure of a regularly varying stationary time series has been recently introduced. It is used in this contribution to reconsider certain properties of the tail process and establish new ones. A new formulation of the time change formula is used to establish identities, some of which were indirectly known and some of which are new.

math.PR

Parameter estimation of a two-colored urn model class

Though widely used in applications, reinforced random walk on graphs have never been the subject of a valid statistical inference. We develop in this paper a statistical framework for a general two-colored urn model. The probability to draw a ball at each step depends on the number of balls of each color and on a multidimensional parameter $θ$ through a function $f$, called a choice function. We introduce two estimators of $θ$: the maximum likelihood estimator and a weighted least squares estimator which is less efficient, but is closer to the calibration techniques used in the applied literature. In general, the model is an inhomogeneous Markov chain and this property makes the estimation of the parameter impossible on a single path, even if it were infinite. Therefore we assume that we observe i.i.d. experiments, each of a predetermined finite length. This is coherent with the usual experimental set-ups. We apply the statistical framework to a real life experiment: the selection of a path among pre-existing channels by an ant colony. We performed experiments, which consisted of letting ants pass through the branches of a fork. We consider the particular urn model proposed by J.-L. Deneubourg in 1990 to describe this phenomenon. We simulate this model for several parameter values in order to assess the accuracy of the MLE and the WLSE. Then we estimate the parameter from the experimental data and evaluate confident regions with Bootstrap algorithms. The findings of this paper do not contradict the biological literature, but give statistical significance to the values of the parameter found therein.

math.ST

Convergence to stable laws in the space $D$

We study the convergence of centered and normalized sums of i.i.d. random elements of the space $\mathcal{D}$ of c{á}dl{á}g functions endowed with Skorohod's $J\_1$ topology, to stable distributions in $\mathcal D$. Our results are based on the concept of regular variation on metric spaces and on point process convergence. We provide some applications, in particular to the empirical process of the renewal-reward process.

math.PR

Drift in Transaction-Level Asset Price Models

We study the effect of drift in pure-jump transaction-level models for asset prices in continuous time, driven by point processes. The drift is as-sumed to arise from a nonzero mean in the efficient shock series. It follows that the drift is proportional to the driving point process itself, i.e. the cumulative number of transactions. This link reveals a mechanism by which properties of intertrade durations (such as heavy tails and long memory) can have a strong impact on properties of average returns, thereby poten-tially making it extremely difficult to determine long-term growth rates or to reliably detect an equity premium. We focus on a basic univariate model for log price, coupled with general assumptions on the point process that are satisfied by several existing flexible models, allowing for both long mem-ory and heavy tails in durations. Under our pure-jump model, we obtain the limiting distribution for the suitably normalized log price. This limiting distribution need not be Gaussian, and may have either finite variance or infinite variance. We show that the drift can affect not only the limiting dis-tribution for the normalized log price, but also the rate in the corresponding normalization. Therefore, the drift (or equivalently, the properties of dura-tions) affects the rate of convergence of estimators of the growth rate, and can invalidate standard hypothesis tests for that growth rate. As a rem-edy to these problems, we propose a new ratio statistic which behaves more

math.ST

Heavy tailed time series with extremal independence

We consider strictly stationary heavy tailed time series whose finite-dimensional exponent measures are concentrated on axes, and hence their extremal properties cannot be tackled using classical multivariate regular variation that is suitable for time series with extremal dependence. We recover relevant information about limiting behavior of time series with extremal independence by introducing a sequence of scaling functions and conditional scaling exponent. Both quantities provide more information about joint extremes than a widely used tail dependence coefficient. We calculate the scaling functions and the scaling exponent for variety of models, including Markov chains, exponential autoregressive model, stochastic volatility with heavy tailed innovations or volatility.

math.ST

The diameter of a random elliptical cloud

We study the asymptotic behavior of the diameter or maximum interpoint distance of a cloud of i.i.d. $d$-dimensional random vectors when the number of points in the cloud tends to infinity. This is a non standard extreme value problem since the diameter is a max-$U$-statistic, hence a maximum of dependent random variables. Therefore, the limiting distributions may not be extreme value distributions. We obtain exhaustive results for the Euclidean diameter of a cloud of elliptical vectors whose Euclidean norm is in the domain of attraction for the maximum of the Gumbel distribution. We also obtain results in other norms for spherical vectors and we give several bi-dimensional generalizations. The main idea behind our results and their proofs is a specific property of random vectors whose norm is in the domain of attraction of the Gumbel distribution: the localization into subspaces of low dimension of vectors with a large norm.

math.PR

Estimating the scaling function of multifractal measures and multifractal random walks using ratios

In this paper, we prove central limit theorems for bias reduced estimators of the structure function of several multifractal processes, namely mutiplicative cascades, multifractal random measures, multifractal random walk and multifractal fractional random walk as defined by Ludeña [Ann. Appl. Probab. 18 (2008) 1138-1163]. Previous estimators of the structure functions considered in the literature were severely biased with a logarithmic rate of convergence, whereas the estimators considered here have a polynomial rate of convergence.

math.ST

Limit Laws in Transaction-Level Asset Price Models

We consider pure-jump transaction-level models for asset prices in continuous time, driven by point processes. In a bivariate model that admits cointegration, we allow for time deformations to account for such effects as intraday seasonal patterns in volatility, and non-trading periods that may be different for the two assets. We also allow for asymmetries (leverage effects). We obtain the asymptotic distribution of the log-price process. We also obtain the asymptotic distribution of the ordinary least-squares estimator of the cointegrating parameter based on data sampled from an equally-spaced discretization of calendar time, in the case of weak fractional cointegration. For this same case, we obtain the asymptotic distribution for a tapered estimator under more

math.ST

Function-indexed empirical processes based on an infinite source Poisson transmission stream

We study the asymptotic behavior of empirical processes generated by measurable bounded functions of an infinite source Poisson transmission process when the session length have infinite variance. In spite of the boundedness of the function, the normalized fluctuations of such an empirical process converge to a non-Gaussian stable process. This phenomenon can be viewed as caused by the long-range dependence in the transmission process. Completing previous results on the empirical mean of similar types of processes, our results on non-linear bounded functions exhibit the influence of the limit transmission rate distribution at high session lengths on the asymptotic behavior of the empirical process. As an illustration, we apply the main result to estimation of the distribution function of the steady state value of the transmission process.

math.PR

Limit theorems for long memory stochastic volatility models with infinite variance: Partial Sums and Sample Covariances

Long Memory Stochastic volatility (LMSV) models capture two standardized features of financial data: the log-returns are uncorrelated, but their squares, or absolute values are (highly) dependent and they may have heavy tails. EGARCH and related models were introduced to model leverage, i.e. negative dependence between previous returns and future volatility. Limit theorems for partial sums, sample variance and sample covariances are basic tools to investigate the presence of long memory and heavy tails and their consequences. In this paper we extend the existing literature on the asymptotic behaviour of the partial sums and the sample covariances of long memory stochastic volatility models in the case of infinite variance. We also consider models with leverage, for which our results are entirely new in the infinite variance case. Depending on the nterplay between the tail behaviour and the intensity of dependence, wo types of convergence rates and limiting distributions can arise. In articular, we show that the asymptotic behaviour of partial sums is the same for both LMSV and models with leverage, whereas there is a crucial difference when sample covariances are considered.

math.ST