arXiv subjects

Pierre Alquier

Publications and source records attributed to Pierre Alquier.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Optimal quasi-Bayesian reduced rank regression with incomplete response

The aim of reduced rank regression is to connect multiple response variables to multiple predictors. This model is very popular, especially in biostatistics where multiple measurements on individuals can be re-used to predict multiple outputs. Unfortunately, there are often missing data in such datasets, making it difficult to use standard estimation tools. In this paper, we study the problem of reduced rank regression where the response matrix is incomplete. We propose a quasi-Bayesian approach to this problem, in the sense that the likelihood is replaced by a quasi-likelihood. We provide a tight oracle inequality, proving that our method is adaptive to the rank of the coefficient matrix. We describe a Langevin Monte Carlo algorithm for the computation of the posterior mean. Numerical comparison on synthetic and real data show that our method are competitive to the state-of-the-art where the rank is chosen by cross validation, and sometimes lead to an improvement.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Tight Risk Bound for High Dimensional Time Series Completion

Initially designed for independent datas, low-rank matrix completion was successfully applied in many domains to the reconstruction of partially observed high-dimensional time series. However, there is a lack of theory to support the application of these methods to dependent datas. In this paper, we propose a general model for multivariate, partially observed time series. We show that the least-square method with a rank penalty leads to reconstruction error of the same order as for independent datas. Moreover, when the time series has some additional properties such as periodicity or smoothness, the rate can actually be faster than in the independent case.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

Deviation inequalities for stochastic approximation by averaging

We introduce a class of Markov chains, that contains the model of stochastic approximation by averaging and non-averaging. Using martingale approximation method, we establish various deviation inequalities for separately Lipschitz functions of such a chain, with different moment conditions on some dominating random variables of martingale differences.Finally, we apply these inequalities to the stochastic approximation by averaging and empirical risk minimisation.

math.PR↗

arXiv2022

Estimation of copulas via Maximum Mean Discrepancy

This paper deals with robust inference for parametric copula models. Estimation using Canonical Maximum Likelihood might be unstable, especially in the presence of outliers. We propose to use a procedure based on the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) principle. We derive non-asymptotic oracle inequalities, consistency and asymptotic normality of this new estimator. In particular, the oracle inequality holds without any assumption on the copula family, and can be applied in the presence of outliers or under misspecification. Moreover, in our MMD framework, the statistical inference of copula models for which there exists no density with respect to the Lebesgue measure on $[0,1]^d$, as the Marshall-Olkin copula, becomes feasible. A simulation study shows the robustness of our new procedures, especially compared to pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation. An R package implementing the MMD estimator for copula models is available.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Understanding the population structure correction regression

Although genome-wide association studies (GWAS) on complex traits have achieved great successes, the current leading GWAS approaches simply perform to test each genotype-phenotype association separately for each genetic variant. Curiously, the statistical properties for using these approaches is not known when a joint model for the whole genetic variants is considered. Here we advance in GWAS in understanding the statistical properties of the "population structure correction" (PSC) approach, a standard univariate approach in GWAS. We further propose and analyse a correction to the PSC approach, termed as "corrected population correction" (CPC). Together with the theoretical results, numerical simulations show that CPC is always comparable or better than PSC, with a dramatic improvement in some special cases.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2021

Meta-strategy for Learning Tuning Parameters with Guarantees

Online learning methods, like the online gradient algorithm (OGA) and exponentially weighted aggregation (EWA), often depend on tuning parameters that are difficult to set in practice. We consider an online meta-learning scenario, and we propose a meta-strategy to learn these parameters from past tasks. Our strategy is based on the minimization of a regret bound. It allows to learn the initialization and the step size in OGA with guarantees. It also allows to learn the prior or the learning rate in EWA. We provide a regret analysis of the strategy. It allows to identify settings where meta-learning indeed improves on learning each task in isolation.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Non-exponentially weighted aggregation: regret bounds for unbounded loss functions

We tackle the problem of online optimization with a general, possibly unbounded, loss function. It is well known that when the loss is bounded, the exponentially weighted aggregation strategy (EWA) leads to a regret in $\sqrt{T}$ after $T$ steps. In this paper, we study a generalized aggregation strategy, where the weights no longer depend exponentially on the losses. Our strategy is based on Follow The Regularized Leader (FTRL): we minimize the expected losses plus a regularizer, that is here a $ϕ$-divergence. When the regularizer is the Kullback-Leibler divergence, we obtain EWA as a special case. Using alternative divergences enables unbounded losses, at the cost of a worst regret bound in some cases.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

A Theoretical Analysis of Catastrophic Forgetting through the NTK Overlap Matrix

Continual learning (CL) is a setting in which an agent has to learn from an incoming stream of data during its entire lifetime. Although major advances have been made in the field, one recurring problem which remains unsolved is that of Catastrophic Forgetting (CF). While the issue has been extensively studied empirically, little attention has been paid from a theoretical angle. In this paper, we show that the impact of CF increases as two tasks increasingly align. We introduce a measure of task similarity called the NTK overlap matrix which is at the core of CF. We analyze common projected gradient algorithms and demonstrate how they mitigate forgetting. Then, we propose a variant of Orthogonal Gradient Descent (OGD) which leverages structure of the data through Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Experiments support our theoretical findings and show how our method can help reduce CF on classical CL datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

High dimensional VAR with low rank transition

We propose a vector auto-regressive (VAR) model with a low-rank constraint on the transition matrix. This new model is well suited to predict high-dimensional series that are highly correlated, or that are driven by a small number of hidden factors. We study estimation, prediction, and rank selection for this model in a very general setting. Our method shows excellent performances on a wide variety of simulated datasets. On macro-economic data from Giannone et al. (2015), our method is competitive with state-of-the-art methods in small dimension, and even improves on them in high dimension.

math.ST↗

arXiv2019

MMD-Bayes: Robust Bayesian Estimation via Maximum Mean Discrepancy

In some misspecified settings, the posterior distribution in Bayesian statistics may lead to inconsistent estimates. To fix this issue, it has been suggested to replace the likelihood by a pseudo-likelihood, that is the exponential of a loss function enjoying suitable robustness properties. In this paper, we build a pseudo-likelihood based on the Maximum Mean Discrepancy, defined via an embedding of probability distributions into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. We show that this MMD-Bayes posterior is consistent and robust to model misspecification. As the posterior obtained in this way might be intractable, we also prove that reasonable variational approximations of this posterior enjoy the same properties. We provide details on a stochastic gradient algorithm to compute these variational approximations. Numerical simulations indeed suggest that our estimator is more robust to misspecification than the ones based on the likelihood.

math.ST↗

arXiv2019

A Generalization Bound for Online Variational Inference

Bayesian inference provides an attractive online-learning framework to analyze sequential data, and offers generalization guarantees which hold even with model mismatch and adversaries. Unfortunately, exact Bayesian inference is rarely feasible in practice and approximation methods are usually employed, but do such methods preserve the generalization properties of Bayesian inference ? In this paper, we show that this is indeed the case for some variational inference (VI) algorithms. We consider a few existing online, tempered VI algorithms, as well as a new algorithm, and derive their generalization bounds. Our theoretical result relies on the convexity of the variational objective, but we argue that the result should hold more generally and present empirical evidence in support of this. Our work in this paper presents theoretical justifications in favor of online algorithms relying on approximate Bayesian methods.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Matrix factorization for multivariate time series analysis

Matrix factorization is a powerful data analysis tool. It has been used in multivariate time series analysis, leading to the decomposition of the series in a small set of latent factors. However, little is known on the statistical performances of matrix factorization for time series. In this paper, we extend the results known for matrix estimation in the i.i.d setting to time series. Moreover, we prove that when the series exhibit some additional structure like periodicity or smoothness, it is possible to improve on the classical rates of convergence.

math.ST↗

arXiv2019

Simpler PAC-Bayesian Bounds for Hostile Data

PAC-Bayesian learning bounds are of the utmost interest to the learning community. Their role is to connect the generalization ability of an aggregation distribution $ρ$ to its empirical risk and to its Kullback-Leibler divergence with respect to some prior distribution $π$. Unfortunately, most of the available bounds typically rely on heavy assumptions such as boundedness and independence of the observations. This paper aims at relaxing these constraints and provides PAC-Bayesian learning bounds that hold for dependent, heavy-tailed observations (hereafter referred to as \emph{hostile data}). In these bounds the Kullack-Leibler divergence is replaced with a general version of Csiszár's $f$-divergence. We prove a general PAC-Bayesian bound, and show how to use it in various hostile settings.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Exponential inequalities for nonstationary Markov Chains

Exponential inequalities are main tools in machine learning theory. To prove exponential inequalities for non i.i.d random variables allows to extend many learning techniques to these variables. Indeed, much work has been done both on inequalities and learning theory for time series, in the past 15 years. However, for the non independent case, almost all the results concern stationary time series. This excludes many important applications: for example any series with a periodic behavior is non-stationary. In this paper, we extend the basic tools of Dedecker and Fan (2015) to nonstationary Markov chains. As an application, we provide a Bernstein-type inequality, and we deduce risk bounds for the prediction of periodic autoregressive processes with an unknown period.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Concentration of tempered posteriors and of their variational approximations

While Bayesian methods are extremely popular in statistics and machine learning, their application to massive datasets is often challenging, when possible at all. Indeed, the classical MCMC algorithms are prohibitively slow when both the model dimension and the sample size are large. Variational Bayesian methods aim at approximating the posterior by a distribution in a tractable family. Thus, MCMC are replaced by an optimization algorithm which is orders of magnitude faster. VB methods have been applied in such computationally demanding applications as including collaborative filtering, image and video processing, NLP and text processing... However, despite very nice results in practice, the theoretical properties of these approximations are usually not known. In this paper, we propose a general approach to prove the concentration of variational approximations of fractional posteriors. We apply our theory to two examples: matrix completion, and Gaussian VB.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

Consistency of Variational Bayes Inference for Estimation and Model Selection in Mixtures

Mixture models are widely used in Bayesian statistics and machine learning, in particular in computational biology, natural language processing and many other fields. Variational inference, a technique for approximating intractable posteriors thanks to optimization algorithms, is extremely popular in practice when dealing with complex models such as mixtures. The contribution of this paper is two-fold. First, we study the concentration of variational approximations of posteriors, which is still an open problem for general mixtures, and we derive consistency and rates of convergence. We also tackle the problem of model selection for the number of components: we study the approach already used in practice, which consists in maximizing a numerical criterion (the Evidence Lower Bound). We prove that this strategy indeed leads to strong oracle inequalities. We illustrate our theoretical results by applications to Gaussian and multinomial mixtures.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

Bayesian methods for low-rank matrix estimation: short survey and theoretical study

The problem of low-rank matrix estimation recently received a lot of attention due to challenging applications. A lot of work has been done on rank-penalized methods and convex relaxation, both on the theoretical and applied sides. However, only a few papers considered Bayesian estimation. In this paper, we review the different type of priors considered on matrices to favour low-rank. We also prove that the obtained Bayesian estimators, under suitable assumptions, enjoys the same optimality properties as the ones based on penalization.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

An Oracle Inequality for Quasi-Bayesian Non-Negative Matrix Factorization

The aim of this paper is to provide some theoretical understanding of quasi-Bayesian aggregation methods non-negative matrix factorization. We derive an oracle inequality for an aggregated estimator. This result holds for a very general class of prior distributions and shows how the prior affects the rate of convergence.

stat.ML↗