arXiv subjects

Pierre Lafaye de Micheaux

Publications and source records attributed to Pierre Lafaye de Micheaux.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Manifold Dimension Estimation via Local Graph Structure

Most existing manifold dimension estimators rely on the assumption that the underlying manifold is locally flat within the neighborhoods under consideration. More recently, curvature-adjusted principal component analysis (CA-PCA) has emerged as a powerful alternative by explicitly accounting for the manifold's curvature. Motivated by these ideas, we propose a manifold dimension estimation framework that captures the local graph structure of the manifold through regression on local PCA coordinates. Within this framework, we introduce two representative estimators: quadratic embedding (QE) and total least squares (TLS). Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that these methods perform competitively with, and often outperform, state-of-the-art approaches.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Deep-testing: the case of dependence detection

Deep learning methods have proved highly effective for classification and image recognition problems. In this paper, we ask whether this success can be transferred to hypothesis testing: if a neural network can distinguish, for example, an image of a handwritten digit from another, can it also distinguish an "image of a sample" (such as a scatter plot) generated under a given statistical model from one generated outside that model? Motivated by this idea, we propose a novel procedure called deep-testing, which approaches the classical inferential problem of hypothesis testing through deep learning. More specifically, the test statistic is a classification map learned by a deep neural network from simulated data satisfying the null and alternative hypotheses, leveraging its strong discriminating power to construct a highly powerful test. As a proof of concept, we apply deep-testing to the problem of independence testing, arguably one of the most important problems in statistics. In a large-scale simulation study, deep-testing achieves the highest overall power against nineteen competing methods across a broad range of complex dependence structures, confirming the viability of the proposed approach.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

tBayes-MICE: A Bayesian Approach to Multiple Imputation for Time Series Data

Time-series analysis is often affected by missing data, a common problem across several fields, including healthcare and environmental monitoring. Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) has been prominent for imputing missing values through "fully conditional specification". We extend MICE using the Bayesian framework (tBayes-MICE), utilising Bayesian inference to impute missing values via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to account for uncertainty in MICE model parameters and imputed values. We also include temporally informed initialisation and time-lagged features in the model to respect the sequential nature of time-series data. We evaluate the tBayes-MICE method using two real-world datasets (AirQuality and PhysioNet), and using both the Random Walk Metropolis (RWM) and the Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin Algorithm (MALA) samplers. Our results demonstrate that tBayes-MICE reduces imputation errors relative to the baseline methods over all variables and accounts for uncertainty in the imputation process, thereby providing a more accurate measure of imputation error. We also found that MALA mixed better than RWM across most variables, achieving comparable accuracy while providing more consistent posterior exploration. Overall, these findings suggest that the tBayes-MICE framework represents a practical and efficient approach to time-series imputation, balancing increased accuracy with meaningful quantification of uncertainty in various environmental and clinical settings.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

A Survey and Comparative Evaluation of Intrinsic Dimension Estimators under the Manifold Hypothesis

The manifold hypothesis suggests that high-dimensional data often lie on or near a low-dimensional manifold. Estimating the dimension of this manifold is essential for leveraging its structure, yet existing work on dimension estimation is fragmented and lacks systematic evaluation. This article provides a comprehensive survey for both researchers and practitioners. We review often-overlooked theoretical foundations and present eight representative estimators. Through controlled experiments, we analyze how individual factors, such as noise, curvature, and sample size, affect performance. We also compare the estimators on diverse synthetic and real-world datasets, introducing a principled approach to dataset-specific hyperparameter tuning. Our results offer practical guidance for estimator selection and yield insights that will inform future estimator design.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Adaptive Heavy-Tailed Stochastic Gradient Descent

In the era of large-scale neural network models, optimization algorithms often struggle with generalization due to an overreliance on training loss. One key insight widely accepted in the machine learning community is the idea that wide basins (regions around a local minimum where the loss increases gradually) promote better generalization by offering greater stability to small changes in input data or model parameters. In contrast, sharp minima are typically more sensitive and less stable. Motivated by two key empirical observations - the inherent heavy-tailed distribution of gradient noise in stochastic gradient descent and the Edge of Stability phenomenon during neural network training, in which curvature grows before settling at a plateau, we introduce Adaptive Heavy Tailed Stochastic Gradient Descent (AHTSGD). The algorithm injects heavier-tailed noise into the optimizer during the early stages of training to enhance exploration and gradually transitions to lighter-tailed noise as sharpness stabilizes. By dynamically adapting to the sharpness of the loss landscape throughout training, AHTSGD promotes accelerated convergence to wide basins. AHTSGD is the first algorithm to adjust the nature of injected noise into an optimizer based on the Edge of Stability phenomenon. AHTSGD consistently outperforms SGD and other noise-based methods on benchmarks like MNIST and CIFAR-10, with marked gains on noisy datasets such as SVHN. It ultimately accelerates early training from poor initializations and improves generalization across clean and noisy settings, remaining robust to learning rate choices.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

A Machine Learning Framework for Handling Unreliable Absence Label and Class Imbalance for Marine Stinger Beaching Prediction

Bluebottles (\textit{Physalia} spp.) are marine stingers resembling jellyfish, whose presence on Australian beaches poses a significant public risk due to their venomous nature. Understanding the environmental factors driving bluebottles ashore is crucial for mitigating their impact, and machine learning tools are to date relatively unexplored. We use bluebottle marine stinger presence/absence data from beaches in Eastern Sydney, Australia, and compare machine learning models (Multilayer Perceptron, Random Forest, and XGBoost) to identify factors influencing their presence. We address challenges such as class imbalance, class overlap, and unreliable absence data by employing data augmentation techniques, including the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE), Random Undersampling, and Synthetic Negative Approach that excludes the negative class. Our results show that SMOTE failed to resolve class overlap, but the presence-focused approach effectively handled imbalance, class overlap, and ambiguous absence data. The data attributes such as the wind direction, which is a circular variable, emerged as a key factor influencing bluebottle presence, confirming previous inference studies. However, in the absence of population dynamics, biological behaviours, and life cycles, the best predictive model appears to be Random Forests combined with Synthetic Negative Approach. This research contributes to mitigating the risks posed by bluebottles to beachgoers and provides insights into handling class overlap and unreliable negative class in environmental modelling.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

A linear regression model for quantile function data applied to paired pulmonary 3d CT scans

This paper introduces a new objective measure for assessing treatment response in asthmatic patients using computed tomography (CT) imaging data. For each patient, CT scans were obtained before and after one year of monoclonal antibody treatment. Following image segmentation, the Hounsfield unit (HU) values of the voxels were encoded through quantile functions. It is hypothesized that patients with improved conditions after treatment will exhibit better expiration, reflected in higher HU values and an upward shift in the quantile curve. To objectively measure treatment response, a novel linear regression model on quantile functions is developed, drawing inspiration from Verde and Irpino (2010). Unlike their framework, the proposed model is parametric and incorporates distributional assumptions on the errors, enabling statistical inference. The model allows for the explicit calculation of regression coefficient estimators and confidence intervals, similar to conventional linear regression. The corresponding data and R code are available on GitHub to facilitate the reproducibility of the analyses presented.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2023

Inter-regional correlation estimators for functional magnetic resonance imaging

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) functional connectivity between brain regions is often computed using parcellations defined by functional or structural atlases. Typically, some kind of voxel averaging is performed to obtain a single temporal correlation estimate per region pair. However, several estimators can be defined for this task, with various assumptions and degrees of robustness to local noise, global noise, and region size. In this paper, we systematically present and study the properties of 9 different functional connectivity estimators taking into account the spatial structure of fMRI data, based on a simple fMRI data spatial model. These include 3 existing estimators and 6 novel estimators. We demonstrate the empirical properties of the estimators using synthetic, animal, and human data, in terms of graph structure, repeatability and reproducibility, discriminability, dependence on region size, as well as local and global noise robustness. We prove analytically the link between regional intra-correlation and inter-region correlation, and show that the choice of estimator has a strong influence on inter-correlation values.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Goodness-of-fit tests for Laplace, Gaussian and exponential power distributions based on $λ$-th power skewness and kurtosis

Temperature data, like many other measurements in quantitative fields, are usually modeled using a normal distribution. However, some distributions can offer a better fit while avoiding underestimation of tail event probabilities. To this point, we extend Pearson's notions of skewness and kurtosis to build a powerful family of goodness-of-fit tests based on Rao's score for the exponential power distribution $\mathrm{EPD}_λ(μ,σ)$, including tests for normality and Laplacity when $λ$ is set to 1 or 2. We find the asymptotic distribution of our test statistic, which is the sum of the squares of two $Z$-scores, under the null and under local alternatives. We also develop an innovative regression strategy to obtain $Z$-scores that are nearly independent and distributed as standard Gaussians, resulting in a $χ_2^2$ distribution valid for any sample size (up to very high precision for $n\geq 20$). The case $λ=1$ leads to a powerful test of fit for the Laplace($μ,σ$) distribution, whose empirical power is superior to all $39$ competitors in the literature, over a wide range of $400$ alternatives. Theoretical proofs in this case are particularly challenging and substantial. We applied our tests to three temperature datasets. The new tests are implemented in the R package PoweR.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

A comprehensive empirical power comparison of univariate goodness-of-fit tests for the Laplace distribution

In this paper we present the results from an empirical power comparison of 40 goodness-of-fit tests for the univariate Laplace distribution, carried out using Monte Carlo simulations with sample sizes $n = 20, 50, 100, 200$, significance levels $α= 0.01, 0.05, 0.10$, and 400 alternatives consisting of asymmetric and symmetric light/heavy-tailed distributions taken as special cases from 11 models. In addition to the unmatched scope of our study, an interesting contribution is the proposal of an innovative design for the selection of alternatives. The 400 alternatives consist of 20 specific cases of 20 submodels drawn from the main 11 models. For each submodel, the 20 specific cases corresponded to parameter values chosen to cover the full power range. An analysis of the results leads to a recommendation of the best tests for five different groupings of the alternative distributions. A real-data example is also presented, where an appropriate test for the goodness-of-fit of the univariate Laplace distribution is applied to weekly log-returns of Amazon stock over a recent four-year period.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Counterexamples to the classical central limit theorem for triplewise independent random variables having a common arbitrary margin

We present a general methodology to construct triplewise independent sequences of random variables having a common but arbitrary marginal distribution $F$ (satisfying very mild conditions). For two specific sequences, we obtain in closed form the asymptotic distribution of the sample mean. It is non-Gaussian (and depends on the specific choice of $F$). This allows us to illustrate the extent of the 'failure' of the classical central limit theorem (CLT) under triplewise independence. Our methodology is simple and can also be used to create, for any integer $K$, new $K$-tuplewise independent sequences that are not mutually independent. For $K \geq 4$, it appears that the sequences created using our methodology do verify a CLT, and we explain heuristically why this is the case.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

Nonparametric tests of independence for circular data based on trigonometric moments

We introduce nonparametric tests of independence for bivariate circular data based on trigonometric moments. Our contributions lie in (i) proposing nonparametric tests that are locally and asymptotically optimal against bivariate cosine von Mises alternatives and (ii) extending these tests, via the empirical characteristic function, to obtain consistent tests against broader sets of alternatives, eventually being omnibus. We thus provide a collection of trigonometric-based tests of varying generality and known optimalities. The large-sample behaviours of the tests under the null and alternative hypotheses are obtained, while simulations show that the new tests are competitive against previous proposals. Two data applications in astronomy and forest science illustrate the usage of the tests.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Tests for circular symmetry of complex-valued random vectors

We propose tests for the null hypothesis that the law of a complex-valued random vector is circularly symmetric. The test criteria are formulated as $L^2$-type criteria based on empirical characteristic functions, and they are convenient from the computational point of view. Asymptotic as well as Monte-Carlo results are presented. Applications on real data are also reported. An R package called CircSymTest is available from the authors.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

A study of seven asymmetric kernels for the estimation of cumulative distribution functions

In Mombeni et al. (2019), Birnbaum-Saunders and Weibull kernel estimators were introduced for the estimation of cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.s) supported on the half-line $[0,\infty)$. They were the first authors to use asymmetric kernels in the context of c.d.f. estimation. Their estimators were shown to perform better numerically than traditional methods such as the basic kernel method and the boundary modified version from Tenreiro (2013). In the present paper, we complement their study by introducing five new asymmetric kernel c.d.f. estimators, namely the Gamma, inverse Gamma, lognormal, inverse Gaussian and reciprocal inverse Gaussian kernel c.d.f. estimators. For these five new estimators, we prove the asymptotic normality and we find asymptotic expressions for the following quantities: bias, variance, mean squared error and mean integrated squared error. A numerical study then compares the performance of the five new c.d.f. estimators against traditional methods and the Birnbaum-Saunders and Weibull kernel c.d.f. estimators from Mombeni et al. (2019). By using the same experimental design, we show that the lognormal and Birnbaum-Saunders kernel c.d.f. estimators perform the best overall, while the other asymmetric kernel estimators are sometimes better but always at least competitive against the boundary kernel method.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

A counterexample to the central limit theorem for pairwise independent random variables having a common arbitrary margin

The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is one of the most fundamental results in statistics. It states that the standardized sample mean of a sequence of $n$ mutually independent and identically distributed random variables with finite first and second moments converges in distribution to a standard Gaussian as $n$ goes to infinity. In particular, pairwise independence of the sequence is generally not sufficient for the theorem to hold. We construct explicitly a sequence of pairwise independent random variables having a common but arbitrary marginal distribution $F$ (satisfying very mild conditions) for which the CLT is not verified. We study the extent of this 'failure' of the CLT by obtaining, in closed form, the asymptotic distribution of the sample mean of our sequence. This is illustrated through several theoretical examples, for which we provide associated computing codes in the R language.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Depth for curve data and applications

John W. Tukey (1975) defined statistical data depth as a function that determines centrality of an arbitrary point with respect to a data cloud or to a probability measure. During the last decades, this seminal idea of data depth evolved into a powerful tool proving to be useful in various fields of science. Recently, extending the notion of data depth to the functional setting attracted a lot of attention among theoretical and applied statisticians. We go further and suggest a notion of data depth suitable for data represented as curves, or trajectories, which is independent of the parametrization. We show that our curve depth satisfies theoretical requirements of general depth functions that are meaningful for trajectories. We apply our methodology to diffusion tensor brain images and also to pattern recognition of hand written digits and letters. Supplementary Materials are available online.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

The Hellinger Correlation

In this paper, the defining properties of a valid measure of the dependence between two random variables are reviewed and complemented with two original ones, shown to be more fundamental than other usual postulates. While other popular choices are proved to violate some of these requirements, a class of dependence measures satisfying all of them is identified. One particular measure, that we call the Hellinger correlation, appears as a natural choice within that class due to both its theoretical and intuitive appeal. A simple and efficient nonparametric estimator for that quantity is proposed. Synthetic and real-data examples finally illustrate the descriptive ability of the measure, which can also be used as test statistic for exact independence testing.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

A goodness-of-fit test for elliptical distributions with diagnostic capabilities

This paper develops a smooth test of goodness-of-fit for elliptical distributions. The test is adaptively omnibus, invariant to affine-linear transformations and has a convenient expression that can be broken into components. These components have diagnostic capabilities and can be used to identify specific departures. This helps in correcting the null model when the test rejects. As an example, the results are applied to the multivariate normal distribution for which the R package ECGofTestDx is available. It is shown that the proposed test strategy encompasses and generalizes a number of existing approaches. Some other cases are studied, such as the bivariate Laplace, logistic and Pearson type II distribution. A simulation experiment shows the usefulness of the diagnostic tools.

math.ST↗