arXiv subjects

Pierre Latouche

Publications and source records attributed to Pierre Latouche.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Simulation-consistent Estimation of the Marginal Likelihood for Block Models

We propose a methodology for computing marginal likelihoods for block models. The proposed estimator computes the marginal likelihood from Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samples and is simulation-consistent, even when the size of the dataset is fixed. Moreover, it is asymptotically normal, of finite variance, invariant to label switching and can be computed efficiently, even for models with an arbitrarily large number of components. We evaluate the method through simulation studies in settings where the true marginal likelihood is available analytically. Finally, we apply the approach to a social network dataset based on the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) and discuss the resulting insights.

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arXiv2025

A new machine learning framework for occupational accidents forecasting with safety inspections integration

We propose a model-agnostic framework for short-term occupational accident forecasting that leverages safety inspections and models accident occurrences as binary time series. The approach generates daily predictions, which are then aggregated into weekly safety assessments for better decision making. To ensure the reliability and operational applicability of the forecasts, we apply a sliding-window cross-validation procedure specifically designed for time series data, combined with an evaluation based on aggregated period-level metrics. Several machine learning algorithms, including logistic regression, tree-based models, and neural networks, are trained and systematically compared within this framework. Across all tested algorithms, the proposed framework reliably identifies upcoming high-risk periods and delivers robust period-level performance, demonstrating that converting safety inspections into binary time series yields actionable, short-term risk signals. The proposed methodology converts routine safety inspection data into clear weekly and daily risk scores, detecting the periods when accidents are most likely to occur. Decision-makers can integrate these scores into their planning tools to classify inspection priorities, schedule targeted interventions, and funnel resources to the sites or shifts classified as highest risk, stepping in before incidents occur and getting the greatest return on safety investments.

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arXiv2025

Easily Computed Marginal Likelihoods for Multivariate Mixture Models Using the THAMES Estimator

We present a new version of the truncated harmonic mean estimator (THAMES) for univariate or multivariate mixture models. The estimator computes the marginal likelihood from Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samples, is consistent, asymptotically normal and of finite variance. In addition, it is invariant to label switching, does not require posterior samples from hidden allocation vectors, and is easily approximated, even for an arbitrarily high number of components. Its computational efficiency is based on an asymptotically optimal ordering of the parameter space, which can in turn be used to provide useful visualisations. We test it in simulation settings where the true marginal likelihood is available analytically. It performs well against state-of-the-art competitors, even in multivariate settings with a high number of components. We demonstrate its utility for inference and model selection on univariate and multivariate data sets.

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arXiv2024

The Deep Latent Position Block Model For The Block Clustering And Latent Representation Of Networks

The increased quantity of data has led to a soaring use of networks to model relationships between different objects, represented as nodes. Since the number of nodes can be particularly large, the network information must be summarised through node clustering methods. In order to make the results interpretable, a relevant visualisation of the network is also required. To tackle both issues, we propose a new methodology called deep latent position block model (Deep LPBM) which simultaneously provides a network visualisation coherent with block modelling, allowing a clustering more general than community detection methods, as well as a continuous representation of nodes in a latent space given by partial membership vectors. Our methodology is based on a variational autoencoder strategy, relying on a graph convolutional network, with a specifically designed decoder. The inference is done using both variational and stochastic approximations. In order to efficiently select the number of clusters, we provide a comparison of three model selection criteria. An extensive benchmark as well as an evaluation of the partial memberships are provided. We conclude with an analysis of a French political blogosphere network and a comparison with another methodology to illustrate the insights provided by Deep LPBM results.

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arXiv2024

A Structured Estimator for large Covariance Matrices in the Presence of Pairwise and Spatial Covariates

We consider the problem of estimating a high-dimensional covariance matrix from a small number of observations when covariates on pairs of variables are available and the variables can have spatial structure. This is motivated by the problem arising in demography of estimating the covariance matrix of the total fertility rate (TFR) of 195 different countries when only 11 observations are available. We construct an estimator for high-dimensional covariance matrices by exploiting information about pairwise covariates, such as whether pairs of variables belong to the same cluster, or spatial structure of the variables, and interactions between the covariates. We reformulate the problem in terms of a mixed effects model. This requires the estimation of only a small number of parameters, which are easy to interpret and which can be selected using standard procedures. The estimator is consistent under general conditions, and asymptotically normal. It works if the mean and variance structure of the data is already specified or if some of the data are missing. We assess its performance under our model assumptions, as well as under model misspecification, using simulations. We find that it outperforms several popular alternatives. We apply it to the TFR dataset and draw some conclusions.

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arXiv2024

The Deep Latent Position Topic Model for Clustering and Representation of Networks with Textual Edges

Numerical interactions leading to users sharing textual content published by others are naturally represented by a network where the individuals are associated with the nodes and the exchanged texts with the edges. To understand those heterogeneous and complex data structures, clustering nodes into homogeneous groups as well as rendering a comprehensible visualisation of the data is mandatory. To address both issues, we introduce Deep-LPTM, a model-based clustering strategy relying on a variational graph auto-encoder approach as well as a probabilistic model to characterise the topics of discussion. Deep-LPTM allows to build a joint representation of the nodes and of the edges in two embeddings spaces. The parameters are inferred using a variational inference algorithm. We also introduce IC2L, a model selection criterion specifically designed to choose models with relevant clustering and visualisation properties. An extensive benchmark study on synthetic data is provided. In particular, we find that Deep-LPTM better recovers the partitions of the nodes than the state-of-the art ETSBM and STBM. Eventually, the emails of the Enron company are analysed and visualisations of the results are presented, with meaningful highlights of the graph structure.

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arXiv2023

Motif-based tests for bipartite networks

Bipartite networks are a natural representation of the interactions between entities from two different types. The organization (or topology) of such networks gives insight to understand the systems they describe as a whole. Here, we rely on motifs which provide a meso-scale description of the topology. Moreover, we consider the bipartite expected degree distribution (B-EDD) model which accounts for both the density of the network and possible imbalances between the degrees of the nodes. Under the B-EDD model, we prove the asymptotic normality of the count of any given motif, considering sparsity conditions. We also provide close-form expressions for the mean and the variance of this count. This allows to avoid computationally prohibitive resampling procedures. Based on these results, we define a goodness-of-fit test for the B-EDD model and propose a family of tests for network comparisons. We assess the asymptotic normality of the test statistics and the power of the proposed tests on synthetic experiments and illustrate their use on ecological data sets.

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arXiv2023

Embedded Topics in the Stochastic Block Model

Communication networks such as emails or social networks are now ubiquitous and their analysis has become a strategic field. In many applications, the goal is to automatically extract relevant information by looking at the nodes and their connections. Unfortunately, most of the existing methods focus on analysing the presence or absence of edges and textual data is often discarded. However, all communication networks actually come with textual data on the edges. In order to take into account this specificity, we consider in this paper networks for which two nodes are linked if and only if they share textual data. We introduce a deep latent variable model allowing embedded topics to be handled called ETSBM to simultaneously perform clustering on the nodes while modelling the topics used between the different clusters. ETSBM extends both the stochastic block model (SBM) and the embedded topic model (ETM) which are core models for studying networks and corpora, respectively. The inference is done using a variational-Bayes expectation-maximisation algorithm combined with a stochastic gradient descent. The methodology is evaluated on synthetic data and on a real world dataset.

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arXiv2022

Cluster-Specific Predictions with Multi-Task Gaussian Processes

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as well as a learning step for subsequent predictions for new tasks. The model is instantiated as a mixture of multi-task GPs with common mean processes. A variational EM algorithm is derived for dealing with the optimisation of the hyper-parameters along with the hyper-posteriors' estimation of latent variables and processes. We establish explicit formulas for integrating the mean processes and the latent clustering variables within a predictive distribution, accounting for uncertainty on both aspects. This distribution is defined as a mixture of cluster-specific GP predictions, which enhances the performances when dealing with group-structured data. The model handles irregular grid of observations and offers different hypotheses on the covariance structure for sharing additional information across tasks. The performances on both clustering and prediction tasks are assessed through various simulated scenarios and real datasets. The overall algorithm, called MagmaClust, is publicly available as an R package.

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arXiv2022

MAGMA: Inference and Prediction with Multi-Task Gaussian Processes

A novel multi-task Gaussian process (GP) framework is proposed, by using a common mean process for sharing information across tasks. In particular, we investigate the problem of time series forecasting, with the objective to improve multiple-step-ahead predictions. The common mean process is defined as a GP for which the hyper-posterior distribution is tractable. Therefore an EM algorithm is derived for handling both hyper-parameters optimisation and hyper-posterior computation. Unlike previous approaches in the literature, the model fully accounts for uncertainty and can handle irregular grids of observations while maintaining explicit formulations, by modelling the mean process in a unified GP framework. Predictive analytical equations are provided, integrating information shared across tasks through a relevant prior mean. This approach greatly improves the predictive performances, even far from observations, and may reduce significantly the computational complexity compared to traditional multi-task GP models. Our overall algorithm is called \textsc{Magma} (standing for Multi tAsk Gaussian processes with common MeAn). The quality of the mean process estimation, predictive performances, and comparisons to alternatives are assessed in various simulated scenarios and on real datasets.

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arXiv2021

Hierarchical clustering with discrete latent variable models and the integrated classification likelihood

Finding a set of nested partitions of a dataset is useful to uncover relevant structure at different scales, and is often dealt with a data-dependent methodology. In this paper, we introduce a general two-step methodology for model-based hierarchical clustering. Considering the integrated classification likelihood criterion as an objective function, this work applies to every discrete latent variable models (DLVMs) where this quantity is tractable. The first step of the methodology involves maximizing the criterion with respect to the partition. Addressing the known problem of sub-optimal local maxima found by greedy hill climbing heuristics, we introduce a new hybrid algorithm based on a genetic algorithm efficiently exploring the space of solutions. The resulting algorithm carefully combines and merges different solutions, and allows the joint inference of the number $K$ of clusters as well as the clusters themselves. Starting from this natural partition, the second step of the methodology is based on a bottom-up greedy procedure to extract a hierarchy of clusters. In a Bayesian context, this is achieved by considering the Dirichlet cluster proportion prior parameter $α$ as a regularization term controlling the granularity of the clustering. A new approximation of the criterion is derived as a log-linear function of $α$, enabling a simple functional form of the merge decision criterion. This second step allows the exploration of the clustering at coarser scales. The proposed approach is compared with existing strategies on simulated as well as real settings, and its results are shown to be particularly relevant. A reference implementation of this work is available in the R package greed accompanying the paper.

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arXiv2020

A Bayesian Fisher-EM algorithm for discriminative Gaussian subspace clustering

High-dimensional data clustering has become and remains a challenging task for modern statistics and machine learning, with a wide range of applications. We consider in this work the powerful discriminative latent mixture model, and we extend it to the Bayesian framework. Modeling data as a mixture of Gaussians in a low-dimensional discriminative subspace, a Gaussian prior distribution is introduced over the latent group means and a family of twelve submodels are derived considering different covariance structures. Model inference is done with a variational EM algorithm, while the discriminative subspace is estimated via a Fisher-step maximizing an unsupervised Fisher criterion. An empirical Bayes procedure is proposed for the estimation of the prior hyper-parameters, and an integrated classification likelihood criterion is derived for selecting both the number of clusters and the submodel. The performances of the resulting Bayesian Fisher-EM algorithm are investigated in two thorough simulated scenarios, regarding both dimensionality as well as noise and assessing its superiority with respect to state-of-the-art Gaussian subspace clustering models. In addition to standard real data benchmarks, an application to single image denoising is proposed, displaying relevant results. This work comes with a reference implementation for the R software in the FisherEM package accompanying the paper.

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arXiv2020

Greedy clustering of count data through a mixture of multinomial PCA

Count data is becoming more and more ubiquitous in a wide range of applications, with datasets growing both in size and in dimension. In this context, an increasing amount of work is dedicated to the construction of statistical models directly accounting for the discrete nature of the data. Moreover, it has been shown that integrating dimension reduction to clustering can drastically improve performance and stability. In this paper, we rely on the mixture of multinomial PCA, a mixture model for the clustering of count data, also known as the probabilistic clustering-projection model in the literature. Related to the latent Dirichlet allocation model, it offers the flexibility of topic modeling while being able to assign each observation to a unique cluster. We introduce a greedy clustering algorithm, where inference and clustering are jointly done by mixing a classification variational expectation maximization algorithm, with a branch & bound like strategy on a variational lower bound. An integrated classification likelihood criterion is derived for model selection, and a thorough study with numerical experiments is proposed to assess both the performance and robustness of the method. Finally, we illustrate the qualitative interest of the latter in a real-world application, for the clustering of anatomopathological medical reports, in partnership with expert practitioners from the Institut Curie hospital.

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arXiv2019

Degree-based goodness-of-fit tests for heterogeneous random graph models : independent and exchangeable cases

The degrees are a classical and relevant way to study the topology of a network. They can be used to assess the goodness-of-fit for a given random graph model. In this paper we introduce goodness-of-fit tests for two classes of models. First, we consider the case of independent graph models such as the heterogeneous Erdös-Rényi model in which the edges have different connection probabilities. Second, we consider a generic model for exchangeable random graphs called the W-graph. The stochastic block model and the expected degree distribution model fall within this framework. We prove the asymptotic normality of the degree mean square under these independent and exchangeable models and derive formal tests. We study the power of the proposed tests and we prove the asymptotic normality under specific sparsity regimes. The tests are illustrated on real networks from social sciences and ecology, and their performances are assessed via a simulation study.

math.ST↗

arXiv2019

Exact Dimensionality Selection for Bayesian PCA

We present a Bayesian model selection approach to estimate the intrinsic dimensionality of a high-dimensional dataset. To this end, we introduce a novel formulation of the probabilisitic principal component analysis model based on a normal-gamma prior distribution. In this context, we exhibit a closed-form expression of the marginal likelihood which allows to infer an optimal number of components. We also propose a heuristic based on the expected shape of the marginal likelihood curve in order to choose the hyperparameters. In non-asymptotic frameworks, we show on simulated data that this exact dimensionality selection approach is competitive with both Bayesian and frequentist state-of-the-art methods.

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arXiv2017

Block modelling in dynamic networks with non-homogeneous Poisson processes and exact ICL

We develop a model in which interactions between nodes of a dynamic network are counted by non homogeneous Poisson processes. In a block modelling perspective, nodes belong to hidden clusters (whose number is unknown) and the intensity functions of the counting processes only depend on the clusters of nodes. In order to make inference tractable we move to discrete time by partitioning the entire time horizon in which interactions are observed in fixed-length time sub-intervals. First, we derive an exact integrated classification likelihood criterion and maximize it relying on a greedy search approach. This allows to estimate the memberships to clusters and the number of clusters simultaneously. Then a maximum-likelihood estimator is developed to estimate non parametrically the integrated intensities. We discuss the over-fitting problems of the model and propose a regularized version solving these issues. Experiments on real and simulated data are carried out in order to assess the proposed methodology.

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arXiv2017

Exact ICL maximization in a non-stationary temporal extension of the stochastic block model for dynamic networks

The stochastic block model (SBM) is a flexible probabilistic tool that can be used to model interactions between clusters of nodes in a network. However, it does not account for interactions of time varying intensity between clusters. The extension of the SBM developed in this paper addresses this shortcoming through a temporal partition: assuming interactions between nodes are recorded on fixed-length time intervals, the inference procedure associated with the model we propose allows to cluster simultaneously the nodes of the network and the time intervals. The number of clusters of nodes and of time intervals, as well as the memberships to clusters, are obtained by maximizing an exact integrated complete-data likelihood, relying on a greedy search approach. Experiments on simulated and real data are carried out in order to assess the proposed methodology.

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arXiv2017

Choosing the number of groups in a latent stochastic block model for dynamic networks

Latent stochastic block models are flexible statistical models that are widely used in social network analysis. In recent years, efforts have been made to extend these models to temporal dynamic networks, whereby the connections between nodes are observed at a number of different times. In this paper we extend the original stochastic block model by using a Markovian property to describe the evolution of nodes' cluster memberships over time. We recast the problem of clustering the nodes of the network into a model-based context, and show that the integrated completed likelihood can be evaluated analytically for a number of likelihood models. Then, we propose a scalable greedy algorithm to maximise this quantity, thereby estimating both the optimal partition and the ideal number of groups in a single inferential framework. Finally we propose applications of our methodology to both real and artificial datasets.

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