arXiv subjects

Pierre Magal

Publications and source records attributed to Pierre Magal.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

On measure-valued solutions for a structured population model with transfers

We consider a transfer operator where two interacting cells carrying non-negative traits transfer a random fraction of their trait to each other. These transfers can lead to population having singular distributions in trait. We extend the definition of the transfer operator to non-negative measures with a finite second moment, and we discuss the regularity of the fixed distributions of that transfer operator. Finally, we consider a dynamic transfer model where an initial population distribution is affected by a transfer operator: we prove the existence and uniqueness of mild measure-valued solutions for that Cauchy problem.

math.AP↗

arXiv2023

Forecasting the changes between endemic and epidemic phases of a contagious disease, with the example of COVID-19

Predicting the endemic/epidemic transition during the temporal evolution of a contagious disease. Methods: Defining indicators for detecting the transition endemic/epidemic, with four scalars to be compared, calculated from the daily reported news cases: coefficient of variation, skewness, kurtosis, and entropy. The indicators selected are related to the shape of the empirical distribution of the new cases observed over 14 days. This duration has been chosen to smooth out the effect of weekends when fewer new cases are registered. For finding a forecasting variable, we have used the PCA (principal component analysis), whose first principal component (a linear combination of the selected indicators) explains a large part of the observed variance and can then be used as a predictor of the phenomenon studied (here the occurrence of an epidemic wave). Results: A score has been built from the four proposed indicators using a Principal Component Analysis (PCA), which allows an acceptable level of forecasting performance by giving a realistic retro-predicted date for the rupture of the stationary endemic model corresponding to the entrance in the epidemic exponential growth phase. This score is applied to the retro-prediction of the limits of the different phases of the COVID-19 outbreak in successive endemic/epidemic transitions and three countries, France, India, and Japan. Conclusion: We provided a new forecasting method for predicting an epidemic wave occurring after an endemic phase for a contagious disease.

math.AP↗

arXiv2023

Robin Hood model versus Sheriff of Nottingham model: transfers in population dynamics

We study the problem of transfers in a population structured by a continuous variable corresponding to the quantity being transferred. The model takes the form of an integro-differential equations with kernels corresponding to the specific rules of the transfer process. We focus our interest on the well-posedness of the Cauchy problem in the space of measures. We characterize transfer kernels that give a continuous semiflow in the space of measures and derive a necessary and sufficient condition for the stability of the space $L^1$ of integrable functions. We construct some examples of kernels that may be particularly interesting in economic applications. Our model considers blind transfers of economic value (e.g. money) between individuals. The two models are the ``Robin Hood model'', where the richest individual unconditionally gives a fraction of their wealth to the poorest when a transfer occurs, and the other extreme, the ``Sheriff of Nottingham model'', where the richest unconditionally takes a fraction of the poorest's wealth. Between these two extreme cases is a continuum of intermediate models obtained by interpolating the kernels. We illustrate those models with numerical simulations and show that any small fraction of the ``Sheriff of Nottingham'' in the transfer rules leads to a segregated population with extremely poor and extremely rich individuals after some time. Although our study is motivated by economic applications, we believe that this study is a first step towards a better understanding of many transfer phenomena occurring in the life sciences.

math.AP↗

arXiv2023

A return-to-home model with commuting people and workers

This article proposes a new model to describe human intra-city mobility. The goal is to combine the convection-diffusion equation to describe commuting people's movement and the density of individuals at home. We propose a new model extending our previous work with a compartment of office workers. To understand such a model, we use semi-group theory and obtain a convergence result of the solutions to an equilibrium distribution. We conclude this article by presenting some numerical simulations of the model.

math.AP↗

arXiv2023

Population dynamics model for aging

The chronological age used in demography describes the linear evolution of the life of a living being. The chronological age cannot give precise information about the exact developmental stage or aging processes an organism has reached. On the contrary, the biological age (or epigenetic age) represents the true evolution of the tissues and organs of the living being. Biological age is not always linear and sometimes proceeds by discontinuous jumps. These jumps can be positive (we then speak of rejuvenation) or negative (in the event of premature aging), and they can be dependent on endogenous events such as pregnancy (negative jump) or stroke (positive jump) or exogenous ones such as surgical treatment (negative jump) or infectious disease (positive jump). The article proposes a mathematical model of the biological age by defining a valid model for the two types of jumps (positive and negative). The existence and uniqueness of the solution are solved, and its temporal dynamic is analyzed using a moments equation. We also provide some individual-based stochastic simulations.

math.AP↗

arXiv2022

A Kermack-McKendrick model with age of infection starting from a single or multiple cohorts of infected patients

During an epidemic, the infectiousness of infected individuals is known to depend on the time since the individual was infected, that is called the age of infection. Here we study the parameter identifiability of the Kermack-McKendrick model with age of infection which takes into account this dependency. By considering a single cohort of individuals, we show that the daily reproduction number can be obtained by solving a Volterra integral equation that depends on the flow of new infected individuals. We test the consistency our the method by generating data from deterministic and stochastic numerical simulations. Finally we apply our method to a dataset from SARS-CoV-1 with detailed information on a single cluster of patients. We stress the necessity of taking into account the initial data in the analysis to ensure the identifiability of the problem.

math.AP↗

arXiv2022

Traveling waves with continuous profile for hyperbolic Keller-Segel equation

This work describes a hyperbolic model for cell-cell repulsion with population dynamics. We consider the pressure produced by a population of cells to describe their motion. We assume that cells try to avoid crowded areas and prefer locally empty spaces far away from the carrying capacity. Here, our main goal is to prove the existence of traveling waves with continuous profiles. This article complements our previous results about sharp traveling waves. We conclude the paper with numerical simulations of the PDE problem, illustrating such a result.

math.AP↗

arXiv2022

Return-to-home model for short-range human travel

In this work, we develop a mathematical model to describe the local movement of individuals by taking into account their return to home after a period of travel. We provide a suitable functional framework to handle this system and study the large-time behavior of the solutions. We extend our model by incorporating a colonization process and applying the return to home process to an epidemic.

math.AP↗

arXiv2021

Global asymptotic stability for Gurtin-MacCamy's population dynamics model

In this paper, we investigate the global asymptotic stability of an age-structured population dynamics model with a Ricker's type of birth function. This model is a hyperbolic partial differential equation with a nonlinear and nonlocal boundary condition. We prove a uniform persistence result for the semi-flow generated by this model. We obtain the existence of global attractors and we prove the global asymptotic stability of the positive equilibrium by using a suitable Lyapunov functional. Furthermore, we prove that our global asymptotic stability result is sharp, in the sense that Hopf bifurcation may occur as close as we want from the region global stability in the space of parameter.

math.DS↗

arXiv2021

A short proof for Hopf bifurcation in Gurtin-MacCamy's population dynamics model

In this paper, we provide a short proof for the Hopf bifurcation theorem in the Gurtin-MacCamy's population dynamics model. Here we use the Crandall and Rabinowitz's approach, based on the implicit function theorem. Compared with previous methods, here we require the age-specific birth rate to be slightly smoother (roughly of bounded variation), but we have a huge gain for the length of the proof.

math.DS↗

arXiv2021

An integrated semigroup approach for age structured equations with diffusion and non-homogeneous boundary conditions

In this work, we consider a linear age-structured problem with diffusion and non-homogeneous boundary conditions both for the age and the space variables. We handle this linear problem by re-writing it as a non-densely defined abstract Cauchy problem. To that aim we develop a new result on the closedness of a commutative sum of two non-densely defined operators by using the theory of integrated semigroups. As an application of this abstract result, we are able to associate a suitable integrated semigroup to some age-structured problem with spatial diffusion and equipped with non-homogeneous boundary conditions. This integrated semigroup is characterized by the description of its infinitesimal generator. Further applications of our abstract result are also given to the commutative sum of two almost sectorial operators, for which we derive a closedness results.

math.AP↗

arXiv2020

Sharp discontinuous traveling waves in a hyperbolic Keller--Segel equation

In this work we describe a hyperbolic model with cell-cell repulsion with a dynamics in the population of cells. More precisely, we consider a population of cells producing a field (which we call "pressure") which induces a motion of the cells following the opposite of the gradient. The field indicates the local density of population and we assume that cells try to avoid crowded areas and prefer locally empty spaces which are far away from the carrying capacity. We analyze the well-posedness property of the associated Cauchy problem on the real line. We start from bounded initial conditions and we consider some invariant properties of the initial conditions such as the continuity, smoothness and monotonicity. We also describe in detail the behavior of the level sets near the propagating boundary of the solution and we find that an asymptotic jump is formed on the solution for a natural class of initial conditions. Finally, we prove the existence of sharp traveling waves for this model, which are particular solutions traveling at a constant speed, and argue that sharp traveling waves are necessarily discontinuous. This analysis is confirmed by numerical simulations of the PDE problem.

math.AP↗

arXiv2020

Predicting the cumulative number of cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in China from early data

We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in China. We use early reported case data to predict the cumulative number of reported cases to a final size. The key features of our model are the timing of implementation of major public policies restricting social movement, the identification and isolation of unreported cases, and the impact of asymptomatic infectious cases.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2019

A Holling's predator-prey model with handling and searching predators

The goal of this paper is to explain how to derive the classical Rosenzweig-MacArthur's model by using a model with two groups of predators in which we can separate the vital dynamic and consumption of prey to describe the behavior of the predators. This will be especially very convenient if we want to add an age or size structure to the predator population. As mentioned by Holling (without mathematical model), we divide the population of predators into the searching and the handling predators. In this article we study some properties of this model and conclude the paper proving that the model converges to the classical Rosenzweig-MacArthur's model by using an appropriate rescalling. This convergence property is observed by using numerical simulations.

math.DS↗

arXiv2019

Large Speed Traveling Waves for the Rosenzweig-MacArthur Model with Spatial Diffusion

This paper focuses on traveling wave solutions for the so-called Rosenzweig-MacArthur model with spatial diffusion. The main results of this note are concerned with the existence and uniqueness of traveling wave solution as well as periodic wave train solution in the large wave speed asymptotic. Depending on the model parameters we more particularly study the existence and this uniqueness of a traveling wave connecting two equilibria or connecting an equilibrium point and a periodic wave train. We also discuss the existence and uniqueness of such a periodic wave train. Our analysis is based on ordinary differential techniques by coupling the theories of invariant manifolds together with those of global attractors.

math.AP↗

arXiv2019

Positively Invariant Subset for Non-Densely Defined Cauchy Problems

In this article we prove the positive invariance of a closed subset by the semiflow generated by a semi-linear non densely Cauchy problem. The condition impose to obtain such a property is a so called sub-tangential condition. We apply our results to a class of age structured population models.

math.AP↗

arXiv2019

A cell-cell repulsion model on a hyperbolic Keller-Segel equation

In this work, we discuss a cell-cell repulsion population dynamic model based on a hyperbolic Keller-Segel equation with two populations. This model can well describe the cell growth and dispersion in the cell co-culture experiment in the work of Pasquier et al. \cite{Pasquier2011}. With the notion of solutions integrated along the characteristics, we prove the existence and uniqueness of the solution and the segregation property of the two species. From a numerical perspective, we can also observe that the model admits a competitive exclusion (the results are different from the corresponding ODE model). More importantly, our model shows the complexity of the short term (6 days) co-cultured cell distribution depending on the initial distribution of each species. Through numerical simulations, the impact of the initial distribution on the population ratio lies in the initial total cell number and our study shows that the population ratio is not impacted by the law of initial distribution. We also find that a fast dispersion rate gives a short-term advantage while the vital dynamic contributes to a long-term population advantage.

math.AP↗

arXiv2019

Functional differential equation with infinite delay in a space of exponentially bounded and uniformly continuous functions

In this article we study a class of delay differential equations with infinite delay in weighted spaces of uniformly continuous functions. We focus on the integrated semigroup formulation of the problem and so doing we provide an spectral theory. As a consequence we obtain a local stability result and a Hopf bifurcation theorem for the semiflow generated by such a problem

math.AP↗