SearcharxivSearch

arXiv subjects

Pietro Manzoni

Publications and source records attributed to Pietro Manzoni.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

Modeling dependence in sparse time series of Insurance Claims

Modeling the dependence between multiple risk types is a central challenge in contemporary insurance risk management. The standard approaches, L\'evy copulas and zero-mixed models, often face practical difficulties in simulation and parameter calibration. In this paper, we introduce the Comb-Bernoulli model, a novel framework for capturing dependence between sparse time series of insurance risks, bridging the benefits of the two standard approaches. The (traditional) copula structure of the proposed model enables tractable: i) simulation, ii) likelihood evaluation, and iii) estimation of dependence parameters. We present the general properties of the model and analyze in detail the Gaussian copula case with lognormal marginals. Moreover, we illustrate an application using the Danish fire insurance dataset, highlighting both the modeling strengths and numerical efficiency of our approach in real-world risk management.

q-fin.RM

Fast and General Simulation of Lévy-driven Ornstein Uhlenbeck processes for Energy Derivatives

Lévy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) processes represent an intriguing class of stochastic processes that have garnered interest in the energy sector for their ability to capture typical features of market dynamics. However, in the current state of play, Monte Carlo simulations of these processes are not straightforward for two main reasons: i) algorithms are available only for some specific processes within this class; ii) they are often computationally expensive. In this paper, we introduce a new simulation technique designed to address both challenges. It relies on the numerical inversion of the characteristic function, offering a general methodology applicable to all Lévy-driven OU processes. Moreover, leveraging FFT, the proposed methodology ensures fast and accurate simulations, providing a solid basis for the widespread adoption of these processes in the energy sector. Lastly, the algorithm allows explicit control of the numerical error. We apply the technique to the pricing of energy derivatives, comparing the results with the existing benchmarks. Our findings indicate that the proposed methodology is at least one order of magnitude faster than the existing algorithms, while maintaining an equivalent level of accuracy.

q-fin.CP

Semantic Invariance in Agentic AI

Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly serve as autonomous reasoning agents in decision support, scientific problem-solving, and multi-agent coordination systems. However, deploying LLM agents in consequential applications requires assurance that their reasoning remains stable under semantically equivalent input variations, a property we term semantic invariance. Standard benchmark evaluations, which assess accuracy on fixed, canonical problem formulations, fail to capture this critical reliability dimension. To address this shortcoming, in this paper we present a metamorphic testing framework for systematically assessing the robustness of LLM reasoning agents, applying eight semantic-preserving transformations (identity, paraphrase, fact reordering, expansion, contraction, academic context, business context, and contrastive formulation) across seven foundation models spanning four distinct architectural families: Hermes (70B, 405B), Qwen3 (30B-A3B, 235B-A22B), DeepSeek-R1, and gpt-oss (20B, 120B). Our evaluation encompasses 19 multi-step reasoning problems across eight scientific domains. The results reveal that model scale does not predict robustness: the smaller Qwen3-30B-A3B achieves the highest stability (79.6% invariant responses, semantic similarity 0.91), while larger models exhibit greater fragility.

cs.AI

The puzzle of Carbon Allowance spread

A growing number of contributions in the literature have identified a puzzle in the European carbon allowance (EUA) market. Specifically, a persistent cost-of-carry spread (C-spread) over the risk-free rate has been observed. We are the first to explain the anomalous C-spread with the credit spread of the corporates involved in the emission trading scheme. We obtain statistical evidence that the C-spread is cointegrated with both this credit spread and the risk-free interest rate. This finding has a relevant policy implication: the most effective solution to solve the market anomaly is including the EUA in the list of European Central Bank eligible collateral for refinancing operations. This change in the ECB monetary policy operations would greatly benefit the carbon market and the EU green transition.

q-fin.ST

RNN(p) for Power Consumption Forecasting

An elementary Recurrent Neural Network that operates on p time lags, called an RNN(p), is the natural generalisation of a linear autoregressive model ARX(p). It is a powerful forecasting tool for variables displaying inherent seasonal patterns across multiple time scales, as is often observed in energy, economic, and financial time series. The architecture of RNN(p) models, characterised by structured feedbacks across time lags, enables the design of efficient training strategies. We conduct a comparative study of learning algorithms for these models, providing a rigorous analysis of their computational complexity and training performance. We present two applications of RNN(p) models in power consumption forecasting, a key domain within the energy sector where accurate forecasts inform both operational and financial decisions. Experimental results show that RNN(p) models achieve excellent forecasting accuracy while maintaining a high degree of interpretability. These features make them well-suited for decision-making in energy markets and other fintech applications where reliable predictions play a significant economic role.

cs.LG

Towards Smart Networking with SDN Enabled IPv6 Network

This paper presents the features and benefits of legacy IPv4 network migration towards major two latest networking paradigms viz. Internet protocol version 6 (IPv6) and the software-defined networking (SDN). These latest networking paradigms are the enabler of future generation networking so that the standards and requirements of fifth generation (5G) wireless networking can be achieved. Features and migration approaches of IPv6 and SDN will be separately discussed, then a joint migration approach of SDN and IPv6 network termed as SoDIP6 network migration will be presented, and the integration of SoDIP6 network as a backbone of 5G network will be introduced.

cs.NI

TurboLoRa: enhancing LoRaWAN data rate via device synchronization

Over the last few years we have witnessed an exponential growth in the adoption of LoRaWAN as LPWAN technology for IoT. While LoRaWAN offers many advantages, one of its limitations is the paltry data rate. Most IoT applications don't require a high throughput but there are some that would benefit from a higher data rate. In this paper, we present TurboLoRa, a system that combines the strengths of LoRaWAN while providing a higher data rate by synchronizing the transmission of multiple LoRaWAN devices. Our proposal allows to combine cheap devices making it a frugal solution to this kind of problems. We present some preliminary results obtained using a real prototype of TurboLoRa.

cs.NI

MQTT-ST: a Spanning Tree Protocol for Distributed MQTT Brokers

MQTT, one of the most popular protocols for the IoT, works according to a publish/subscribe pattern in which multiple clients connect to a single broker, generally hosted in the cloud. However, such a centralised approach does not scale well considering the massive numbers of IoT devices forecasted in the next future, thus calling for distributed solutions in which multiple brokers cooperate together. Indeed, distributed brokers can be moved from traditional cloud-based infrastructure to the edge of the network (as it is envisioned by the upcoming MEC technology of 5G cellular networks), with clear improvements in terms of latency, for example. This paper proposes MQTT-ST, a protocol able to create such a distributed architecture of brokers, organized through a spanning tree. The protocol uses in-band signalling (i.e., reuses MQTT primitives for the control messages) and allows for full message replication among brokers, as well as robustness against failures. We tested MQTT-ST in different experimental scenarios and we released it as open-source project to allow for reproducible research.

cs.NI

Towards a Scaled IoT Pub/Sub Architecture for 5G Networks: the Case of Multiaccess Edge Computing

The vision of the Internet of Thing is becoming a reality and novel communications technologies such as the upcoming 5G network architecture are designed to support its full deployment. In this scenario, we discuss the benefits that a publish/subscribe protocol such as MQTT or its recently proposed enhancement MQTT+ could bring into the picture. However, deploying pub/sub brokers with advanced caching and aggregation functionalities in a distributed fashion poses challenges in protocol design and management of communication resources. In this paper, we identify the main research challenges and possible solutions to scale up a pub/sub architecture for upcoming IoT applications in 5G networks, and we present our perspective on systems design, optimisation, and working implementations.

cs.DC

Simulating Opportunistic Networks: Survey and Future Directions

Simulation is one of the most powerful tools we have for evaluating the performance of Opportunistic Networks. In this survey, we focus on available tools and models, compare their performance and precision and experimentally show the scalability of different simulators. We also perform a gap analysis of state-of-the-art Opportunistic Network simulations and sketch out possible further development and lines of research. This survey is targeted at students starting work and research in this area while also serving as a valuable source of information for experienced researchers.

cs.NI

Friendship and Selfishness Forwarding: applying machine learning techniques to Opportunistic Networks data forwarding

Opportunistic networks could become the solution to provide communication support in both cities where the cellular network could be overloaded, and in scenarios where a fixed infrastructure is not available, like in remote and developing regions. A critical issue that still requires a satisfactory solution is the design of an efficient data delivery solution. Social characteristics are recently being considered as a promising alternative. Most opportunistic network applications rely on the different mobile devices carried by users, and whose behavior affects the use of the device itself. This work presents the "Friendship and Selfishness Forwarding" (FSF) algorithm. FSF analyses two aspects to make message forwarding decisions when a contact opportunity arises: First, it classifies the friendship strength among a pair of nodes by using a machine learning algorithm to quantify the friendship strength among pairs of nodes in the network. Next, FSF assesses the relay node selfishness to consider those cases in which, despite a strong friendship with the destination, the relay node may not accept to receive the message because it is behaving selfishly, or because its device has resource constraints in that moment. By using trace-driven simulations through the ONE simulator, we show that the FSF algorithm outperforms previously proposed schemes in terms of delivery rate, average cost, and efficiency.

cs.NI

DrivingStyles: A mobile platform for driving styles and fuel consumption characterization

Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) rely on connected vehicle applications to address real-world problems. Research is currently being conducted to support safety, mobility and environmental applications. This paper presents the DrivingStyles architecture, which adopts data mining techniques and neural networks to analyze and generate a classification of driving styles and fuel consumption based on driver characterization. In particular, we have implemented an algorithm that is able to characterize the degree of aggressiveness of each driver. We have also developed a methodology to calculate, in real-time, the consumption and environmental impact of spark ignition and diesel vehicles from a set of variables obtained from the vehicle's Electronic Control Unit (ECU). In this paper, we demonstrate the impact of the driving style on fuel consumption, as well as its correlation with the greenhouse gas emissions generated by each vehicle. Overall, our platform is able to assist drivers in correcting their bad driving habits, while offering helpful tips to improve fuel economy and driving safety.

cs.CY

Measurement-Based Modelling of LTE Performance in Dublin City

LTE/4G is the next generation of cellular network which specifically aims to improve the network performance for data traffic and is currently being rolled out by many network operators. We present results from an extensive LTE measurement campaign in Dublin, Ireland using a custom performance measurement tool. Performance data was measured at a variety of locations within the city (including cell edge locations, indoors, outdoors etc) as well as for mobile users on public transport within the city. Using this data we derive a model of the characteristics of link layer RTT and bandwidth vs link signal strength. This model is suited to use for performance evaluation of applications and services, and since it is based on real measurements it allows realistic evaluation of performance.

cs.NI